2019 Hurricane season

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by flybynight » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:23 am

687
WTNT35 KNHC 030853
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...
...CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Ponte Vedra Beach
Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound GA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West.
Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow
north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A
turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a
turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the
core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound
Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will then move dangerously
close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday
evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday
night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). A wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently
reported at Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to immediate
coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into
Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Stercutus
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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by Stercutus » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:37 pm

The unprecedented destruction of having a hurricane linger over your island for 40 hours is near complete. I think most of us have not imagined such a scenario. I believe the death toll is going to much higher than has been reported so far.

https://abc13.com/weather/hurricane-dor ... s/5505307/

https://www.businessinsider.com/hurrica ... ast-2019-9

https://www.businessinsider.com/hurrica ... ?r=DE&IR=T
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by RickOShea » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:01 pm

NOAA National Hurricane Center


The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Fernand, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic basin on this Tuesday afternoon, an area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and continues to exhibit a broad circulation. Any significant increase in thunderstorms would contribute to the formation of a tropical depression.

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of Bermuda, and the associated showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization. Development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it moves northward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Periods of heavy rainfall are likely to impact Bermuda.

Also, a tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.


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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by RickOShea » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:26 pm

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:00 am


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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by Stercutus » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:46 am

MPMalloy wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:00 am
From Bloomberg: Island of 50,000 People in the Bahamas Is 70% Under Water
The rescue efforts are hugely impeded due to the massive flooding. Last I checked the airport was under 4' of water.

What is coming out is complete devastation.

https://www.npr.org/sections/picturesho ... he-bahamas
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by raptor » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:02 am

The tide remains high but the water has drained and GBI air port is open for emergency traffic.
See below for the other airports. The difficult part is both customs and fuel. Any planes will have to tanker fuel and reduce their load to ensure sufficient fuel to get back home. (This is a common problem when flying there in normal times. No pilot likes to see fuel being pumped from a 55 gallon drum into their wing tank.)

Customs is another issue you have to get your entry documents stamped to clear customs on return to the US. No customs stamp from the Bahamas and re-entry to the US is awkward.

A link to the weather station at Settlement Point on the far west end of GBI at Old Bahama Bay Resort. There is a private airport there but because it is private there is no regular reporting of status. You have to call the airport manager everytime you go there to check the status

Note the wind speed and gust

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=spgf1


More updates on airports.
https://ops.group/blog/dorian-impact/


Bahamas – Most affected airports

Airport Runway Apron Airport Fuel Customs
MYGF Freeport Clear Debris Restricted No Unknown
MYAM Marsh Harbour Flooded Flooded Closed Maybe Unknown
MYAT Treasure Cay Open Clear Restricted No Not avail
MYAS Sandy Point Open Clear Open Maybe Unknown

Crew and Local Reports:
MYGF/Freeport International:
Weds 2.30pm ET The primary terminals have fared better than the first images seen of the Western Air Terminal. Domestic and international terminals are standing. International terminal being cleared of floodwater remnants.

Weds 5.30pm ET Runway and taxiways are no longer flooded. Everything is above water. Most buildings are showing flooding damage but the hard surfaces all appear intact. Currently helicopter only, but may be suitable for fixed wing shortly.

Note: CNN reports that the Freeport Airport has been ‘destroyed’ are inaccurate. The images seen in the media are of the Western Air terminal, which was indeed severely damaged, but the main buildings are mostly OK.

No fly Zone: There is an active Notam with a 15nm restriction around MYGF, penetrate only with approval from NEMA.

MYAT/Treasure Cay:
Weds 5.30pm ET Lots of GA traffic arriving/departing the field. Looks like the fuel truck is operating, too. We only did a low approach to assess the runway, but it appears clear and is certainly being used as of 9/4 17:30 EST.

MYAM/Marsh Harbor, Abaco:
– Major flooding. Runways under water. Terminal building standing. (Monday 11am ET)
– Notam published 4 Sept advises the airport is closed due to damage caused by the hurricane.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by Stercutus » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:22 pm

Customs is another issue you have to get your entry documents stamped to clear customs on return to the US. No customs stamp from the Bahamas and re-entry to the US is awkward.
They could put a temporary hold on that. Sure some narcotics would get through, but even 72 hours would help a lot.

At least Fonzie is having fun.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... spartanntp
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by RickOShea » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:00 am

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by Stercutus » Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:12 am

RickOShea wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:00 am
Image
All I want to know is if it is going to Alabama or not? because that is a very big deal to National News organizations who sometimes forget to put Alabama on the map. And since we live there we really need to know.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by RickOShea » Fri Sep 06, 2019 5:47 pm

Friendly reminder....


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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by Stercutus » Fri Sep 06, 2019 6:04 pm

That dolphin is the answer to our prayers.

DOLPHINADO TRUMPS SHARKNADO!
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by RickOShea » Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:04 pm

DOLPHINADO TRUMPS SHARKNADO!
Dolphicane? Dolphiclone?...Dolphoon?
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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by flybynight » Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:25 pm

Come on . Not like we haven' t seen this before

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by manacheck » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:17 pm

Not to in any way, shape, or form, downplay the huge effect Dorian has/is had/having related to the Bahamas.

but.
I'm a little pissed off that I can't find a single news story excited about dodging some bullets on how it hit us here in the US. It's like a media void unless it's bad news.

A lot of people listened to good advice, did their best to prep under poor conditions. Seems like that should be praised a little bit. Where's the feel-good section of the news that says, "Nice going, USA. You listened, and thank goodness, it didn't turn into a bloodbath! Things turned out okay for a lot of people. Here's a photo of beautiful houses that someone could have lost, along with everything they had, if things had turned out for the worst. Here's a short video clip sent in by a viewer of this happy dog whose owner bought extra dog food and got their vaccines up to date, just in case. Ain't he cute all happy and alive and all! Fido says thanks for prepping and taking care of him."
"It is better to light a single candle than to curse the darkness."

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by CG » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:50 pm

We were told that the Bahamian government asked a medical ship coming down to bring 1500 body bags, and that they're having to go out into deeper water every night to flush their engine or something because of the number of bodies in the water.
Mater tua caligas gerit!

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:35 pm

CG wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:50 pm
We were told that the Bahamian government asked a medical ship coming down to bring 1500 body bags, and that they're having to go out into deeper water every night to flush their engine or something because of the number of bodies in the water.
Who said this? The news?

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by Stercutus » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:42 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/th ... story.html
The Bahamian government has been slow to raise its official death toll, which stood Monday evening at 50. The count did not include the bodies the teams on Great Abaco found during the day.
Much larger numbers have been circulating. The Punch, a Nassau tabloid, ran a front-page headline Monday suggesting a final count in the thousands. Other local media have run similar stories.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by CG » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:54 am

MPMalloy wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:35 pm
CG wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:50 pm
We were told that the Bahamian government asked a medical ship coming down to bring 1500 body bags, and that they're having to go out into deeper water every night to flush their engine or something because of the number of bodies in the water.
Who said this? The news?
Somebody associated with the Pacific Hope medical ship. I think the truth is going to be somewhere in between the numbers their government is giving and that number. I really don't see how that many houses can be destroyed and there only be 50 casualties.
Mater tua caligas gerit!

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:31 pm

You have to remember that in the Abacos there are a lot of unoccupied vacation homes. Much of the destruction shown are these homes.

The population of the Abacos is about 17,000 people with Marsh Harbor having 5,000 people. It is also spread out over 776 sq miles. Dorien impacted the north part the most and it has less population. Also Dorien was not a large hurricane but rather fairly compact. In fact if you look at the West End of GBI weather station you will see the winds did not exceed 70 knots.

I am not saying the death toll will not rise or minimising the damage, only that at this point it is no where near 1,500.

I am sure some people were washed off the island, based upon the damage and reports that is certainly a high probability.

As for the ship leaving to pump its tanks that is likely the grey and black water tanks reaching capacity and requiring them to be pumped out. Generally cruise ships do this at sea or if available they will pump the waste water to a local sanitary sewer system. That said I doubt the sewer system on GBI is functioning.

A medical ship will likely also have a seawater desalination unit to convert the seawater to potable water and also needs clean sea water to do this. These are reasons they would leave port on a short term basis.


BTW as comparison Hurricane Katrina killed over 1,800 people ~ 1,500 were in NOLA alone.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by RickOShea » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:19 pm

NOAA National Hurricane Center

Elsewhere over the Atlantic basin on this Tuesday afternoon, a surface trough is located near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, The associated showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend.



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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by RickOShea » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:31 pm

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:49 pm

From NPR: Imelda Causing 'Major, Catastrophic Flooding' In Southeast Texas, Forecasters Warn
Parts of eastern Texas could see nearly 3 feet of rain through Friday, forecasters say, warning of potential flash floods from Tropical Depression Imelda.
- David J. Phillip/AP


From USA Today: 'They're forming like roaches.' The 6 tropical storms whirling at once have set a record

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Re: 2019 Hurricane season

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:34 pm

[*]
manacheck wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:17 pm
Not to in any way, shape, or form, downplay the huge effect Dorian has/is had/having related to the Bahamas.

but.
I'm a little pissed off that I can't find a single news story excited about dodging some bullets on how it hit us here in the US. It's like a media void unless it's bad news.

A lot of people listened to good advice, did their best to prep under poor conditions. Seems like that should be praised a little bit. Where's the feel-good section of the news that says, "Nice going, USA. You listened, and thank goodness, it didn't turn into a bloodbath! Things turned out okay for a lot of people. Here's a photo of beautiful houses that someone could have lost, along with everything they had, if things had turned out for the worst. Here's a short video clip sent in by a viewer of this happy dog whose owner bought extra dog food and got their vaccines up to date, just in case. Ain't he cute all happy and alive and all! Fido says thanks for prepping and taking care of him."
It might be a good time to repost this as the folks in Texas are going through the rise cycle again.
https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/ot ... on-tornado
Priests and cannibals, prehistoric animals
Everybody happy as the dead come home

Big black nemesis, parthenogenesis
No-one move a muscle as the dead come home

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