EMP and the US Govt - C-Span

[Thor]

The Heritage Foundation hosted a discussion on the potential threat from an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP. It can be produced by detonating a nuclear bomb at high altitude or by unusually powerful solar activity. EMPs can disrupt and destroy electrical equipment of all kinds. Speakers at this event included Maryland Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett.

Video of the discussion can be found at the link. Very interesting stuff.

http://www.c-span.org/Events/Heritage-Foundation-Discussion-on-Electromagnetic-Pulse-Threat/10737423521/

If your interested in reading a good book about what might happen check out One Second After http://www.amazon.com/One-Second-After-William-Forstchen/dp/0765317583

[raptor]

EMP comes up a lot. Here are some threads on the subject.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=65213&start=96

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=74816

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=59085&start=24

My less than informed and unscientific thoughts on the subject are that since there have been no large instances (large as in potential to effect a continent, truly massive solar storms, multiple nukes, etc.) of EMP that the effects of EMP are not truly known and understood. Hence I am sure when not if an large EMP event occurs there will be significant new things determined about EMP.

A lot people saying "Wow, I did not expect that".

[Rev]

My less than informed and unscientific thoughts on the subject are that since there have been no large instances of EMP that the effects of EMP are not truly known and understood. Hence I am sure when not if an large EMP event occurs there will be significant new things determined about EMP.

A lot people saying "Wow, I did not expect that".

.....Are we talking about zombies?

VINDICATION!

[raptor]

.....Are we talking about zombies?

VINDICATION!

Hey who knows?! But what I meant by that was that I suspect the event will surprise experts with its results due to all of the variables that are not been completely understood.

[Sckitzo]

That's actually a really good point Raptor, in the back of my head I kinda just...assumed (yeah, I know ) what would happen, but really it may not play out like that at all. Could only impact say 50% of electronics, or kill everyone with a pacemaker ontop of it.

[Rugger]

Just google " solar flare 1859 " and read about what it did even back then. Granted, the electric grid was in it's infancy, but it still shut it down. It even caused telegraph wires to melt on the poles and started many fires. In 1989 there was a much smaller one that shut down part of Canada's grid. It doesn't have to be a nuclear EMP. And there are many people out there that would try to take advantage of the (fingers-crossed) temporary chaos that would ensue.

[TacAir]

Not that Heritage Foundation is known as a scientific outfit, nor is it connected to any untilies, I have to wonder why they keep flogging this subject? Someone need another Gov't contract?

I am amazed at both the fascination with and ignorance about "EMP" events.

Kirtland AFB (http://www.kirtland.af.mil/) has a massive EMP generator set up to test everything from B-1 bombers to railroad engines to off-the-shelf commercial Ford pickup trucks - just like the military uses. The .mil types seem inconcerned.

(BTW, Fun Fotos - http://cryptome.quintessenz.at/mirror/6odd-eyeball.htm plus some insider stuff)

Some people don’t even believe that electromagnetic pulse is a “credible" threat. For example, in 1997, during the Clinton era, General Robert T. Marsh, Retired, Chairman of the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection stated:

“I do not see any evidence that suggests capabilities seriously threatening our critical infrastructure. [...] There are many easier, less costly, and more dramatic ways for terrorists to use nuclear weapons than delivery to a high altitude. Such an event is so unlikely and difficult to achieve that I do not believe it warrants serious concern at this time. The administration's policy is to prevent proliferation and unauthorized access.”
Source (http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/congres ... 7010_1.htm)

I was at Kirtland for a while testing of comm equipment (still can't say why, sorry) and later, after military retirement, worked at a major telecom outfit as a Operations Manager focused on network reliability. The telephone network, Nationally, is hardened. Ditto for the power grid. Is it perfect? No, a tree falling across a set of lines can cause a wide-area outage. But then, no equipment (transformers etc,) blow up either.

OK, about your car blowing up.
They (http://www.empcommission.org/) ran tests.
The results of the tests can be found here - page 131
(http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473 ... on-7MB.pdf )

"We tested a sample of 37 cars in an EMP simulation laboratory, with automobile vintages ranging from 1986 through 2002. Automobiles of these vintages include extensive electronics and represent a significant fraction of automobiles on the road today. The testing was conducted by exposing running and nonrunning automobiles to sequentially increasing EMP field intensities. If anomalous response (either temporary or permanent) was observed, the testing of that particular automobile was stopped. If no anomalous response was observed, the testing was continued up to the field intensity limits of the simulation capability (approximately 50 kV/m).

(Money quote here) Automobiles were subjected to EMP environments under both engine turned off and engine turned on conditions. No effects were subsequently observed in those automobiles that were not turned on during EMP exposure. (NOTE - this at levels of 50kv/m!!!)

The most serious effect observed on running automobiles was that the motors in three cars stopped at field strengths of approximately 30 kV/m or above.

In an actual EMP exposure, these vehicles would glide to a stop and require the driver to restart them.

Electronics in the dashboard of one automobile were damaged and required repair. Other effects were relatively minor. Twenty-five automobiles exhibited malfunctions that could be considered only a nuisance (e.g., blinking dashboard lights) and did not require driver intervention to correct. Eight of the 37 cars tested did not exhibit any anomalous response.

30kv/m is (to use an old Marine term) a shitpotload of juice. You can read the source documents your own self and draw your own conclusions.

So, ya the cell phone network and telephone network will go down - because of all the calls generated from someone popping off a nuke, EMP - no so much.

I have provided links to reports from responsible sources, and the results of tests from a Gov't agency charged with this stuff. If we do get hit by the highly unlikely EMP attack so many seem to obsess over, interruptions will be on the order of days or weeks. Less than being hit by a hurricane. So, if you are covered for a hurricane...


YMMV, pick your own demons - I'll take a pass onthe EMP one.

[Sckitzo]

That was an interesting read also TA

Personally, I lump EMP up there with other crazy shit that may or may not happen.

There isn't a lot I can do to prep for what could or is supposed to happen, so it's not a huge concern. As asmusing as it would be to turn my garage into a Faraday cage I don't see it happening...

ETA

Kirtland is a spooky base, had buddies there, to much weird shit happening for them, I think that was the base that had the kill on site order if they saw any monkeys running around even

[Bunsen]

This comes up every time, so I'll see if I can head it off in this thread:

Even though everybody wants to lump them together,
Nuclear EMPs and solar storms are very, very different.
A nuclear EMP comes in three phases. The first one is the one that makes the headlines and shows up in movies -- it happens in the blink of an eye and can damage any electronics connected to anything that acts like an antenna, but (as TacAir said and contrary to the movies) won't necessarily fry every circuit in sight. This is what the military simulators simulate. The second one affects electronics a lot like a nearby-but-not-direct lightning strike, and is the least dangerous of the three because things are already designed not to go tits-up if lightning strikes three houses away. The third, slowest phase involves the Earth's magnetic field getting shoved around and snapping back, which takes several minutes. This part is totally harmless to anything that isn't connected to a mile of metal, but is seriously bad news for the infrastructure of the electric grid.

Solar storms shove the Earth's magnetic field around, like the third phase of the nuclear EMP but generally a lot more slowly. Again, anything inside the atmosphere and not hooked up to a few miles of wire won't notice a thing. Satellites, power lines, and pipelines are the vulnerable areas, far more so near the polar regions. I've seen more news articles talking about how a solar flare will fry your car's computer and light your ipod on fire... That's a load of crap built on scientific illiteracy and intentional fearmongering. Concerns about the power distribution grid are real, but household-level consequences consist of (a) not having power and (b) umm, maybe losing GPS service if things got really bad. Of course, a widespread long-term power outage can bring plenty of nastiness along with it, but you already knew that.

I should also mention that solar storms come in a wide range of sizes. Small ones happen frequently, and will get more news coverage than they deserve due to the aforementioned ignorance and fearmongering. Read a lot before you panic.

[Rugger]

Damn you Dark Angel. (the tv show)

Good info, thanks. Sounds like I'll be marking man-made emp off my list of things to watch out for. Solar flare/storm and nuclear bomb are sadly still on there though.

ETA - so..... after re-reading the posts....... in summary, emp/solar stuff bad for national electric grid, and power won't be going to the house, but the small stuff (car and house on down) will be ok. Right?

[Blacksmith]

Most military comm equipment is protected with an EMP circuit shut off that killed all the breakers. We normally would have everything back and running within ten minutes of the shut off. This was 20 years ago, things may have changed since then.

[TacAir]

Damn you Dark Angel. (the tv show)

Good info, thanks. Sounds like I'll be marking man-made emp off my list of things to watch out for. Solar flare/storm and nuclear bomb are sadly still on there though.

ETA - so..... after re-reading the posts....... in summary, emp/solar stuff bad for national electric grid, and power won't be going to the house, but the small stuff (car and house on down) will be ok. Right?

BTW - made made EMP usually = atomic bomb. But ya, someone popping a nuke off in the neighborhood is rude and will cause all kinds of problems.

How about
Car - OK
Power - maybe (maybe, maybe) short term outages

Telephone - no worse than Mother's Day. There a lot of cut-rate comm systems out there, competition is driving the US toward a (hate to say) 3 world comm system for the 'last mile' or from a Class 4 switch to your local switch/home/handset.
So-called soft switchs are pretty much just a PC with a lot of memory and have not been treated as the old Class 5 switches in days of yore. Few more years and I'll recommend everyone have a two-way radio as backup.

It's all the other stuff that worries me - everything from traffic lights to the computer systems used by mass transit - those can go down, and even if take as long as a week (likely sooner in normal times) to get them back on line, there will be hell to pay -- because too many live with less than a loaf of bread and a six-pack of beer in the house....


Glad you found the links worth reading - how cool were those photos?

[Necrodamus]

Hey who knows?! But what I meant by that was that I suspect the event will surprise experts with its results due to all of the variables that are not been completely understood.

I am amazed at both the fascination with and ignorance about "EMP" events.

There are a lot of experts that say No and others that say Yes.
Just remember this...

I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. I cannot conceive of any vital disaster happening to this vessel. Modern ship building has gone beyond that.

There is no danger that Titanic will sink. The boat is unsinkable and nothing but inconvenience will be suffered by the passengers.

Considering this is a preparedness site, even though the event is not likely, isnt it better to simply say "Prepare for it, but dont focus on it." There seem to be elements that slam down on anyone that says EMP or solar flare, yet we have specific forums that deal with "zombie combat tactics" and "zombie biology"? The Carrington Event was real, its documented. It doesnt take a genius to figure out the same event now would be a disaster. Its not fear mongering its education.

All I am saying is "Never say Never!"

[Necrodamus]

Couple of things I would like to point out...

This...

http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/congres ... 7010_1.htm

is an old document and several of the people quoted in that document were at the seminar that occurred yesterday. These are the same people that are saying that not enough has been done.

Here is a quote from your link... "The coverage and levels that would ensue from an EMP attack are well understood. However, the overall effects on specific terrestrial systems are not as well understood. How much of the telecommunications systems would fail and for how long, how much of the power grid would be disrupted and for how long, how many cars would stop and/or would not start are things that are extremely difficult to predict." (emphasis added by me)

and another... "In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, I believe the threat of a major debilitating EMP attack generated by a nuclear weapon is remote at this time. This is also true of the more localized effects of RF weapons, although this area needs to be kept under surveillance and may warrant the development of countermeasures in the future." (more emphasis from me)

I wanted to point those out because during the seminar it was mentioned that Iran is using aircraft launched SCUD missiles as make-shift ballistic missiles and that such a missle could reach the altitudes necessary for EMP generation. North Korea has a nuclear device that has been tested and while most nuclear weapons experts refer to it as a "failed" weapon, the output of that weapon matches the Russian super-EMP device. Neither of these events could have been known when those documents were written fourteen years ago.

[flsgear]

Just thought I'd throw in my 2c here - there's a lot of great factual information here to overcome the hype of EMP.

The note about EMP and solar storms cannot be understated. They're vastly different. Heck, you can't even compare lightning against an EMP. To understand you have to know where an EMP comes from in a nuclear weapon. As the blast radiates outwards it strips the electrons off the air it rushes past creating an electromagnetic wave front which spreads outwards from the site. This wavefront has wave properties - as such there are points where it has gaps - causing inconsistent results on the ground. Every major government has a sort of super-emp weapon but you'll notice ours are based around man-portable devices to cause focused effects.

The truth is that in my own research, the vast majority of EMP weapons tend to effect places where the charge can be concentrated and condensed. This typically comes down to large stretches of electrical wiring. So effectively the power grid and old POTS lines are the biggest risk of becoming concentrators. Most of the telecom stuff in long stretches (except in last mile stuff as previous mentioned) Is fiber anymore. Fiber = immune. Cars being faraday cages probably doesn't hurt their resilience either. There's a lot of debate as to how much though, given it's a wave and not a bolt of lightning. The previous posters link seems to pretty readily solidify the strength of the automobile against EMPs. I've read people with pacemakers may have problems, and wireless comms will be difficult afterwards because of ongoing effects after the EMP.

The bottom line is that I don't think it's worth meriting as more than a pain in the butt. Worst case, power is down because the transformers blow. And you know where they keep the spares for those right? Outside.. on the ground - waiting to be fried hahahahahaah ... they take months to produce so there is the significant long term possibility of a high kv/m strike disrupting the power grid. Your personal electronics would likely survive, as well as any backup generation utilities you might have (bike powered generator, gas, diesel, etc). The main power grid would likely be toast as it's already pretty stressed to the limit on ridiculously old equipment as is. The phone network would go down shortly after because their 'backup power' comes from a 700+ hp generator that will typically run for about 8 hours before crapping out. Assuming they even had enough gas in it anyways. I worked for a telco for 10 years.. trust me when I say the facilities would survive but might be DOA due to lack of power. One time we had a major server behind a magnetically sealed vault door. The backup generator was also behind said door. Someone didn't pay the electric bill. Well.. the generator died like 15 mins later because no one had refilled it. So the magnetic locks on the doors engaged and they had to plasma cut the door open. *Facepalm*

So frankly you could very readily take care of yourself but I can imagine hordes of 'roaming zombies' wondering where their internet and power went.

[Horatio_Tyllis]

So frankly you could very readily take care of yourself but I can imagine hordes of 'roaming zombies' wondering where their internet and power went.

I picture them pounding my my door in a slavering hoard moaning out "Faaaaarmville....."

[silentpoet]

So frankly you could very readily take care of yourself but I can imagine hordes of 'roaming zombies' wondering where their internet and power went.

I picture them pounding my my door in a slavering hoard moaning out "Faaaaarmville....."

it would probably be more like "PORRRRNNNNNNNNN"

[ei8htx]

Thnx for citing the page, TacAir.

How many kV/m are we talking if a nuclear bomb is detonated in the atmosphere?

[Necrodamus]

Thnx for citing the page, TacAir.

How many kV/m are we talking if a nuclear bomb is detonated in the atmosphere?

Depends on a lot of variables, tonnage of the nuke, altitude of detonation, proximity of the blast to the location of a device. Thats just what little I know, I'm sure there could be other factors.

[TacAir]

Thnx for citing the page, TacAir.

How many kV/m are we talking if a nuclear bomb is detonated in the atmosphere?

~about 40 to 50 Kv/m and as noted with many factors to accoint for inthe final measurement

It's a slow afternoon and dinner isn't ready yet, so lets work our way up.

Undergound shelters should protect from a high intensity, short duration, 50 KV/m electromagnetic wave. The frequency of EMP varies from 10 KHz to 10 GHz.
These guys (http://serendipshelters.com/products_NBCS.htm) will be happy to sell you a shelter that can handle that, and a few other things.

Lightning
Call this 5 to 20 Kv/m plus a very nice bang as the plasma tube implodes.
http://www.lightning.org/sites/www.ligh ... t_Tips.pdf

And on to outer space

"Interestingly, different sources concur that prompt peak E1 component of this 300-kiloton Soviet test was not excessive: between 5 kV/m and 10 kV/m. This is likely a result of the pre-ionization effect in two-stage weapons."

The same souce notes that
"The strength of the EMP is dependent upon strength and orientation (dip-angle) of the geomagnetic field. The Earth’s magnetic field varies across the globe and also varies with time at a given location."
I'm not linking to this site as it seems (IMO) to have cherry-picked data to reach a sensational 'conclusion' - even at that, much of the (selective) hard test data from nuke testing is in line with what I have read, just they connect the dots a whle lot differently.


People often focus on the nuke EMP death weapon without also factoring in radiation. These same devices will produce a pretty good dose of X-ray and other ionizing radiation as well. Not good for your rabbits - or you for that matter.

So, the military - who owns and has tested these infernal devices know that level of EM pulse they will produce, that the FedGov//USAF//Alpahabet soup agencies test to 50 Kv/m tells me that the 50 Kv/m is likely the upper range on these bad boys.

If you are worried about comms, I have seen GRC-109 radio sets plus the GN8/GN-58 hand-crank genset to power them for sale on line. Just keep the headsets in a metal box....


Planetary geomagnetic processes are, of course, something akin to real rocket science. Something best left to folks who get big FedGov grants to explain why thier computer models are never right - that is, the models never really match real world measurements on a consistant basis. The plaentary proccess are vasty more compicated than something as 'simple' as lightening or a nuke going off.

For fun, I would refer you to the HAARP page (Big Navy money flowing through here) they have all kinds of neat information, show current reading from several insturments and have pics of active events on line. You can also see the weather in Gulkana AK. (crappy most of the time BTW)
http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/data.html

When last I visited, it was well worth the time. If you call in advance, they will give you a tour, show you the equipment and let you take photos. Well, not of the black choppers and secret mind control transmitters, but I can understand that.

Hope this helps.

(Edit to add HAARP link, sorry)

[shrapnel]

When last I visted, it was well worth the time. If you call in advance, they will give you a tour, show you the equipment and let you take photos. Well, not of the black choppers and secret mind control transmitters, but I can understand that.

Hope this helps.

Unless they DID let you see the mind control transmitters, but wiped your brain afterward. You may never know...

This is a good thread, carry on.

[J.C.]

There are a lot of experts that say No and others that say Yes.

Are there any studies that actually demonstrate significant vulnerabilities in infrastructure, appliances, vehicles or heavy machines? Because the only studies I've read where they actually went and took a look found relatively minor effects, particularly when you consider the levels of anxiety that seem to surround this topic.

Also, the douchebags you quoted talking about the Titanic were not engineers and had not done any of their own studies. The designer of the ship was on board, and as soon as he learned the extent of the damage he advised the captain they were going down. Just because some people sold the public a bill of goods about it being "unsinkable" doesn't mean that the actual experts thought that. They didn't.

[ei8htx]

There are a lot of experts that say No and others that say Yes.

Are there any studies that actually demonstrate significant vulnerabilities in infrastructure, appliances, vehicles or heavy machines? Because the only studies I've read where they actually went and took a look found relatively minor effects, particularly when you consider the levels of anxiety that seem to surround this topic.

Also, the douchebags you quoted talking about the Titanic were not engineers and had not done any of their own studies. The designer of the ship was on board, and as soon as he learned the extent of the damage he advised the captain they were going down. Just because some people sold the public a bill of goods about it being "unsinkable" doesn't mean that the actual experts thought that. They didn't.

...Did you read the pdf TacAir put up?

Yea, vehicles seem to be ok (up to 2002 at least) but the infrastructure vulnerability they talk about seems pretty serious to me.

Here's several snips from the preface (I don't even know which ones to mark red):

The electromagnetic pulse generated by a high altitude nuclear explosion is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. The increasingly pervasive use of electronics of all forms represents the greatest source of vulnerability to attack by EMP

This broad band, high amplitude EMP, when coupled into sensitive electronics, has the capability to produce widespread and long lasting disruption and damage to the critical infrastructures that underpin the fabric of U.S. society. Because of the ubiquitous dependence of U.S. society on the electrical power system, its vulnerability to an EMP attack, coupled with the EMP’s particular damage mechanisms, creates the possibility of long-term, catastrophic consequences. The implicit invitation to take advantage of this vulnerability, when coupled with increasing proliferation of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, is a serious concern. A single EMP attack may seriously degrade or shut down a large part of the electric power grid in the geographic area of EMP exposure effectively instantaneously.

Some critical electrical power infrastructure components are no longer manufactured in the United States, and their acquisition ordinarily requires up to a year of lead time in routine circumstances. Damage to or loss of these components could leave significant parts of the electrical infrastructure out of service for periods measured in months to a year or more.

The Commission’s view is that the Federal Government does not today have sufficiently robust capabilities for reliably assessing and managing EMP threats.

The Commission reviewed current national capabilities to understand and to manage the effects of EMP and concluded that the Country is rapidly losing the technical competence in this area that it needs in the Government, National Laboratories, and Industrial Community.

Oh, and the guys who wrote it:

Dr. John S. Foster, Jr.
Mr. Earl Gjelde
Dr. William R. Graham (Chairman)
Dr. Robert J. Hermann
Mr. Henry (Hank) M. Kluepfel
Gen Richard L. Lawson, USAF (Ret.)
Dr. Gordon K. Soper
Dr. Lowell L. Wood, Jr.
Dr. Joan B. Woodard

I count 6 doctors and a general.

[Necrodamus]

Dont forget the documents that Tac-air linked are from 1997.
The seminar/hearing that Thor posted in the beginning of this thread was from last Monday.
So all the shortcomings of 14 years ago are still there and with new information about N Korea it seems there is an increased threat.

I think a lot of people jumped on the tin-foil hat stuff without listening to the entire video from Thor or reading the links from Tac-air.

I stand by my statement! "There seem to be elements that slam down on anyone that says EMP or solar flare"