Feds and Utility Companies Face Off Over Solar EMP Threat

[Pilsung]

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-feds ... eat-2012-4

WASHINGTON – As scientists warn of an impending solar storm between now and 2014 that could collapse the national power grid, thrusting millions into darkness instantly, a debate has flared up between utilities and the federal government on the severity of such an event.

NASA and the National Academy of Sciences previously confirmed to G2Bulletin that an electromagnetic pulse event from an intense solar storm could occur any time between now and 2014.

They say it could have the effect of frying electronics and knocking out transformers in the national electric grid system.

Already, there are separate published reports of massive solar storms of plasma – some as large as the Earth itself – flaring off of the sun's surface and shooting out into space, with some recently having come close enough to Earth to affect worldwide communications and alter the flights of commercial aircraft near the North Pole.

But in February, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which represents the power industry, issued a stunning report asserting that a worst-case geomagnetic "super storm" like the 1859 Carrington Event likely wouldn't damage most power grid transformers. Instead, it would cause voltage instability and possibly result in blackouts lasting only a few hours or days, but not months and years.

NERC's assertion, however, is at serious variance with the 2008 congressional EMP Commission, the 2008 National Academy of Sciences report; a 2010 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report; the 2012 report by the Defense Committee of the British Parliament, and others.

Even the British scientists who contributed to the parliament report came to their own independent assessment that a great geomagnetic storm would cause widespread damage to power grid transformers and result in a protracted blackout lasting months, or even years, with catastrophic consequences for society.

Despite NERC's assertion that there wouldn't be widespread damage to the nation's power grid transformers in the event of an intense solar storm, the FERC, which regulates interstate electricity and other energy sales but has no authority now over local utilities to harden their grid sites, says that as many as 130 million Americans could have problems for years.

NERC asserts that any blackout would last hours or days, at most.

"The FERC report relied on a four-part quantitative model of geomagnetic disturbance effects on the U.S. power grid to develop conclusions and recommendations, while the NERC report relied on meetings of industry employees in lieu of data collection or event investigation," according to Peter Vincent Pry, who heads the congressional quasi-legislative Task Force on National and Homeland Security. Pry also was staff director to the EMP Commission.

Pry said that the Task Force had issued its own report comparing the scientific methodology used in the industry-sponsored NERC report with that used in 2010 FERC report.

He pointed out that the NERC report was the product of a so-called Geomagnetic Disturbance Task Force with membership consisting only of representatives from electricity generation and transmission companies.

"In contrast to the FERC report, no expert on geomagnetic storms and natural electromagnetic pulse effects participated in actual drafting of the NERC report," Pry said.

He added that the FERC report used a "proven computer model" to predict specific geographic areas expected to experience power grid collapse during a major geomagnetic disturbance.

"The NERC report discussed how such models might be developed in the future," Pry said.

Pry was particularly critical of the "extraordinary and unsupported claim" in the NERC report that a likely collapse of the power grid would prevent transformer overheating and damage. Pry said that the FERC asserts that internal heating as a likely mechanism of transformer damage is based on prior actual geomagnetic disturbance events.

U.S. transformers on the average are more than 30 years old and are susceptible to internal heating, according to FERC experts. Other federal studies have revealed that the transformers have to be custom-made for local utilities and are constructed only overseas.

In addition, utilities do not keep around spare transformers due to their expense. The NERC report, however, does not discuss the age of the nation's transformers.

Nevertheless, there is ample evidence in the possession of the FERC revealing the damage to transformers from previous geomagnetic storms. For example, there was serious transformer damage to the Salem nuclear power plant in New Jersey in the aftermath of the same geomagnetic storm that caused the March 1989 Hydro-Quebec blackout. According to Pry, the NERC had removed any similar pictures from the published version of its report.

[Anianna]

According to National Geographic:

"Improved predictions will provide more accurate forecasts, so [officials] can take mitigating actions," said Rodney Viereck, a physicist at the Space Weather Prediction Center.

Even now, the center's Bogdan said, the most damaging emissions from big storms travel slowly enough to be detected by sun-watching satellites well before the particles strike Earth. "That gives us [about] 20 hours to determine what actions we need to take," Viereck said.

In a pinch, power companies could protect valuable transformers by taking them offline before the storm strikes. That would produce local blackouts, but they wouldn't last for long.

"The good news is that these storms tend to pass after a couple of hours," Bogdan added.

Meanwhile, scientists are scrambling to learn everything they can about the sun in an effort to produce even longer-range forecasts.

We know from past experience that solar storms can damage active transformers and that taking them offline saves them that damage. A 72 hour survival kit (which is something EVERYBODY should have) should be sufficient to cover these events.


ETA: Sorry, forgot to include the link - http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... t-science/

[raptor]

The story is not quite as simple as the Fed scientists disagree with industry engineers.

There are other complications:
1) Most utilities are still regulated. Thus if the utility has to seek permission from its regulator to spend significant capital to harden power grids. This capital cost in turn is passed along to rate payers in higher rates.

A utility even if it agrees with the assessment cannot simply "fix" the problem if teh regulators will not allow the cost to be passed along.

2) Utility grids and their operation are very complex. Managing them is more of an art than a science. The long employed utility engineers who monitor and maintain then will know far more about individual grids than any other 3rd party.


On a similar note there are 3 key feeder grids that feed power to NOLA & BR. They are prone to hurricane damage. After Hurricane Gustave left a lot of people without power due to this grid damage, a hue and cry went up to "harden" this grid and bury it for safety reasons. The cost was staggering and hence rejected by the utility's regulator.

The key take away is that the US power grid is vulnerable to a lot of risks. That said a power outage should be at worst an inconvenience. For a prepared ZS'er, a power outage should be a non-event. Plan accordingly.

[majorhavoc]

Hard to get a read on severity of this risk. Different agencies seem to be coming to radically different conclusions about how long even a "worst-case geomagnetic "super storm" like the 1859 Carrington Event" would impact regional and national power grids. Days, weeks, even months I feel like I could endure with varying levels of discomfort.

But the "years" estimate that some authorities at suggesting? That's a real game changer. Since fuel distribution will largely cease, even the most ardent generator-equipped preppers would likely exhaust their fuel stores long before power and fuel distribution are restored.

At that point it would only be people with photovoltaics, wind turbines and small scale hydroelectic facilties that could weather this kind of disaster with some semblance of electronic communications, so say nothing of artifical lighting.

Makes me think a little harder about that mobile solar/vertical turbine station I've been dreaming of building.

[cmxterra]

Already, there are separate published reports of massive solar storms of plasma – some as large as the Earth itself – flaring off of the sun's surface and shooting out into space, with some recently having come close enough to Earth to affect worldwide communications and alter the flights of commercial aircraft near the North Pole.
.

Silly people. CMEs are WAY bigger than the tiny little Earth.

[IceWing]

Yep, this is why a solar\wind rig is near the top of our list, and we'll hopefully be starting to add capacity in the next 2-3 years (yes, that's AFTER the peak danger period starts)

Ice

[Anianna]

Hard to get a read on severity of this risk. Different agencies seem to be coming to radically different conclusions about how long even a "worst-case geomagnetic "super storm" like the 1859 Carrington Event" would impact regional and national power grids. Days, weeks, even months I feel like I could endure with varying levels of discomfort.

But the "years" estimate that some authorities at suggesting? That's a real game changer. Since fuel distribution will largely cease, even the most ardent generator-equipped preppers would likely exhaust their fuel stores long before power and fuel distribution are restored.

At that point it would only be people with photovoltaics, wind turbines and small scale hydroelectic facilties that could weather this kind of disaster with some semblance of electronic communications, so say nothing of artifical lighting.

Makes me think a little harder about that mobile solar/vertical turbine station I've been dreaming of building.

Why not prepare to live without electricity? For example, locate water sources such as rivers, creeks, and shallow wells where you can haul water from in buckets. Toilets can be force flushed and refilled by hand or, even better, build an outhouse. A rocket stove is a safer than open cooking fires and can efficiently heat with small fuel, including twigs and even pine needles. There are instructions for building rocket stoves on this board and for "Indian holes" which is basically an in-ground rocket stove on the self sufficiency board. There is a book about using rocket stoves for home heating, as well. Etcetera, etcetera.

[Tater Raider]

We know from past experience that solar storms can damage active transformers and that taking them offline saves them that damage. A 72 hour survival kit (which is something EVERYBODY should have) should be sufficient to cover these events.

I think 72 hour kits would be sufficient for urban areas, but rural areas should prep for longer outages. 7-10 days would be a good idea IMHO.

Beyond that, I agree with a lot of what's been said.

[silversnake]

Yep, this is why a solar\wind rig is near the top of our list, and we'll hopefully be starting to add capacity in the next 2-3 years (yes, that's AFTER the peak danger period starts)

Ice

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't part of the big worry over EMP (solar or otherwise) that it will fry just about anything with a circuit board and significant amounts of wiring? If such truly is the case, won't it just fry your solar/wind system's inverter along with anything much more advanced than a light bulb that you would want to connect to the system post-EMP?

I can see lots of reasons for investing the time/money/effort into a renewable energy set-up, but I honestly didn't think EMP preparedness was one of them. *cue someone to please come along and explain to me where I"m mistaken*

[taz-hein]

Yep, this is why a solar\wind rig is near the top of our list, and we'll hopefully be starting to add capacity in the next 2-3 years (yes, that's AFTER the peak danger period starts)

Ice

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't part of the big worry over EMP (solar or otherwise) that it will fry just about anything with a circuit board and significant amounts of wiring? If such truly is the case, won't it just fry your solar/wind system's inverter along with anything much more advanced than a light bulb that you would want to connect to the system post-EMP?

I can see lots of reasons for investing the time/money/effort into a renewable energy set-up, but I honestly didn't think EMP preparedness was one of them. *cue someone to please come along and explain to me where I"m mistaken*

my understanding is that it won't just fry all the circuit boards, they have to be connected to some type of antenna. long wire. The pulse isn't really powerful enough to reach small objects that aren't connected. but there's some dispute about that. on my understanding, if your inverter was connected it might fry. anything plugged in would be toast. some cars would die momentarily or longer depending on design.

[Tater Raider]

Bunsen has some excellent write-ups on EMP which are well worth the effort to look for here on ZS.

Most everyone agrees that the power grid is vurnerable as is anything with a long antenna. The disagreement starts with electronics in general and how badly EMP would affect (or not) anything with a transistor. If you chose to play it safe, anything with a transistor should have a backup in a faraday cage as part of your preps, but make sure you take care of this according to risk and according to how essential the equipment is.

An example of this is my Jeep - lots of computers. My back-up is a bicycle rather than a spare CPU in a faraday cage because that takes care of more than just EMP from whatever. Then again I'm old school on EMP, very old school. Electronics are a lot more hardy than they once were.

YMMV, offer still void in Rhode Island.

[taz-hein]

you said what I was trying to, but only better.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime

Starfish Prime caused an electromagnetic pulse which was far larger than expected, so much larger that it drove much of the instrumentation off scale, causing great difficulty in getting accurate measurements. The Starfish Prime electromagnetic pulse also made those effects known to the public by causing electrical damage in Hawaii, about 1,445 kilometres (898 mi) away from the detonation point, knocking out about 300 streetlights, setting off numerous burglar alarms and damaging a telephone company microwave link. The EMP-damaged microwave link shut down telephone calls from Kauai to the other Hawaiian islands.[4]

[IceWing]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't part of the big worry over EMP (solar or otherwise) that it will fry just about anything with a circuit board and significant amounts of wiring? If such truly is the case, won't it just fry your solar/wind system's inverter along with anything much more advanced than a light bulb that you would want to connect to the system post-EMP?

I can see lots of reasons for investing the time/money/effort into a renewable energy set-up, but I honestly didn't think EMP preparedness was one of them. *cue someone to please come along and explain to me where I"m mistaken*

Here's what we're thinking of doing.

1.) Automatic Transfer Switch - This will drop our system off the main electric grid immediately if the power goes down. I'd like to have some kind of audible alert as well so that I'm aware something happened (i.e. I want to check to see if everything else is up and running still or if it's local. If everything is down, we need to immediately go to blackout conditions)

2.) Whole house surge surpression \ line conditioner on the inside of the ATS. This prevents a power surge from damaging our components.

3.) Inverter - Connects between battery bank and house system.

4.) Battery Bank

Intially, would like enough storage to run the house for 12 hours at normal consumption.

5.) Power Generation

Solar

Wind

Micro-Hyrdo (very long term)


So, with this setup, if there is a power surge from the grid, it won't make it into our household wiring. If the grid goes down, we're still able to power most of our critical infrastructure, at least for a while. When the tornado came through our AO we were without power for about 24 hours. Generators only last as long as their fuel supply. Looking back, I would have MUCH rather put the money from the generator purchase into solar, inverter and batteries.

Ice

[raptor]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't part of the big worry over EMP (solar or otherwise) that it will fry just about anything with a circuit board and significant amounts of wiring? If such truly is the case, won't it just fry your solar/wind system's inverter along with anything much more advanced than a light bulb that you would want to connect to the system post-EMP?

I can see lots of reasons for investing the time/money/effort into a renewable energy set-up, but I honestly didn't think EMP preparedness was one of them. *cue someone to please come along and explain to me where I"m mistaken*

Here's what we're thinking of doing.

1.) Automatic Transfer Switch - This will drop our system off the main electric grid immediately if the power goes down. I'd like to have some kind of audible alert as well so that I'm aware something happened (i.e. I want to check to see if everything else is up and running still or if it's local. If everything is down, we need to immediately go to blackout conditions)

2.) Whole house surge surpression \ line conditioner on the inside of the ATS. This prevents a power surge from damaging our components.

3.) Inverter - Connects between battery bank and house system.

4.) Battery Bank

Intially, would like enough storage to run the house for 12 hours at normal consumption.

5.) Power Generation

Solar

Wind

Micro-Hyrdo (very long term)


So, with this setup, if there is a power surge from the grid, it won't make it into our household wiring. If the grid goes down, we're still able to power most of our critical infrastructure, at least for a while. When the tornado came through our AO we were without power for about 24 hours. Generators only last as long as their fuel supply. Looking back, I would have MUCH rather put the money from the generator purchase into solar, inverter and batteries.

Ice

Not a bad plan but I will throw a little cold water into the battery bank equation.

A single 4 D sized battery (a very large battery) holds about 225 amps. Since the battery can only discharged about 50% until the voltage drops below the level required by an inverter. Thus you can draw only about 115 amps from such a large battery until it needs to be recharged.

The simply math for this is 115 amps through an inverter will yield only (115 ampsx12 volts= 1,380 watts *.9 = 1,242) 1,242 usable watts at 115 volts. So for instance if you run say a Ref/Freezer and some house lights you will use the power in that 8D battery in less than an hour.

A central hvac system that uses 20 amps @ 240 would needs about four 8D batteries for each hour that it is running.

In short current battery technology would require a huge and very expensive battery system to run a house for 24 hours. It would likewise need a very large solar array and/or generator to recharge the battery.

[IceWing]

Not a bad plan but I will throw a little cold water into the battery bank equation.

>>snip<<

In short current battery technology would require a huge and very expensive battery system to run a house for 24 hours. It would likewise need a very large solar array and/or generator to recharge the battery.

And, to be honest, that's why this is a longer term goal and we're putting in things like fruit trees, raised beds, grapes, beehives etc. at the BIL now instead of significant power storage\generation. The longer we wait, the more efficient and cheaper solar gets, the more mature home wind generation gets, and the more capable\cheaper energy storage capabilities get. Again, it's a long term goal, not something we're putting cash on the barrel head for today.

We have been switching all of our small electronics to AA and now have a small solar battery charger with a couple of dozen enloops to keep us going.

Ice

[majorhavoc]

Hard to get a read on severity of this risk. Different agencies seem to be coming to radically different conclusions about how long even a "worst-case geomagnetic "super storm" like the 1859 Carrington Event" would impact regional and national power grids. Days, weeks, even months I feel like I could endure with varying levels of discomfort.

But the "years" estimate that some authorities at suggesting? That's a real game changer. Since fuel distribution will largely cease, even the most ardent generator-equipped preppers would likely exhaust their fuel stores long before power and fuel distribution are restored.

At that point it would only be people with photovoltaics, wind turbines and small scale hydroelectic facilties that could weather this kind of disaster with some semblance of electronic communications, so say nothing of artifical lighting.

Makes me think a little harder about that mobile solar/vertical turbine station I've been dreaming of building.

Why not prepare to live without electricity? For example, locate water sources such as rivers, creeks, and shallow wells where you can haul water from in buckets. Toilets can be force flushed and refilled by hand or, even better, build an outhouse. A rocket stove is a safer than open cooking fires and can efficiently heat with small fuel, including twigs and even pine needles. There are instructions for building rocket stoves on this board and for "Indian holes" which is basically an in-ground rocket stove on the self sufficiency board. There is a book about using rocket stoves for home heating, as well. Etcetera, etcetera.

That's sort of what I was driving at. In this particular solar EMP scenerio, if the grid is really is knocked out for a period of years, most people's onsite electricity generation planning will fall well short, and practically everyone will have to learn to live without electricity.

And as the last few posts to this thread reveal, wind/solar/battery storage really isn't going to provide a meaningful substitute for our ususal household electricity appetites. Even with a photovoltaic array, a wind turbine and a realively huge bank of batteries, people will be largely living without electricity: heating/cooling systems, water pumps, just about every kind of automated washing machine and refrigeration would become a thing of the past after the last of the prepared exhaust their fuel supplies to run emergency generators.

What I can see small scale solar/wind energy useful for would be basic lighting and electronic communication needs. Not a whole lot else.

[Rev]

I'd say learn to live with a lot less electricity over none.

[silversnake]

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't part of the big worry over EMP (solar or otherwise) that it will fry just about anything with a circuit board and significant amounts of wiring? If such truly is the case, won't it just fry your solar/wind system's inverter along with anything much more advanced than a light bulb that you would want to connect to the system post-EMP?

I can see lots of reasons for investing the time/money/effort into a renewable energy set-up, but I honestly didn't think EMP preparedness was one of them. *cue someone to please come along and explain to me where I"m mistaken*

Here's what we're thinking of doing.

1.) Automatic Transfer Switch - This will drop our system off the main electric grid immediately if the power goes down. I'd like to have some kind of audible alert as well so that I'm aware something happened (i.e. I want to check to see if everything else is up and running still or if it's local. If everything is down, we need to immediately go to blackout conditions)

2.) Whole house surge surpression \ line conditioner on the inside of the ATS. This prevents a power surge from damaging our components.

3.) Inverter - Connects between battery bank and house system.

4.) Battery Bank

Intially, would like enough storage to run the house for 12 hours at normal consumption.

5.) Power Generation

Solar

Wind

Micro-Hyrdo (very long term)


So, with this setup, if there is a power surge from the grid, it won't make it into our household wiring. If the grid goes down, we're still able to power most of our critical infrastructure, at least for a while. When the tornado came through our AO we were without power for about 24 hours. Generators only last as long as their fuel supply. Looking back, I would have MUCH rather put the money from the generator purchase into solar, inverter and batteries.

Ice

That does look like a very nice setup and I agree on both the protection against a surge from the grid and the thought that buying solar might have been better than buying the backup generator. I'm weighing the same choices myself right now.

However, my question about the EMP issue is looking in the other direction. In the event of an EMP of the type of apocalyptic event most preppers talk about, wouldn't the wiring between your solar array and the inverter (or just the wiring within your house that the inverter is connected to) form enough of a "large antenna" for an EMP to fry your inverter and/or any batter bank charge managing equipment you have installed along with any relatively sensitive appliances?

[Anianna]

Anything mechanical can fail. Even if you have a really awesome back-up electricity generating system, you should have a plan in place for its failure.

[Rev]

Anything mechanical can fail.

Redundancy is a wonderful thing.

[IceWing]

That does look like a very nice setup and I agree on both the protection against a surge from the grid and the thought that buying solar might have been better than buying the backup generator. I'm weighing the same choices myself right now.

However, my question about the EMP issue is looking in the other direction. In the event of an EMP of the type of apocalyptic event most preppers talk about, wouldn't the wiring between your solar array and the inverter (or just the wiring within your house that the inverter is connected to) form enough of a "large antenna" for an EMP to fry your inverter and/or any batter bank charge managing equipment you have installed along with any relatively sensitive appliances?

From what I've read, the amount of wire necessary to get the surge effect is in the mile+ range. You're not going to get that much in your house, and if you do, then I'm going to come to your place, cause you've got like WAY too big a house *laugh*.

Ice

[MacAttack]

Why does everyone assume that no one, not a single person or company world wide, would find a way to rebuild a gas powered generator and move it to a power plant to help get that back up and running and so one down the line?


Its not like an EMP will wipe out the knowledge of how to produce power.

And 99% of the power grid will still be usable. We would just have to replace the broken parts to make it whole again. Little by little things will come back. I feel bad for those on life support though.


For the most part we have enough material to do this just laying around unsold yet in warehouses. Some few specialty parts would have to be worked around of course but its not like we haven't done that before.


A single EMP will NOT send us back to the stone age.
If one hit every time we repaired the system then we could, could, maybe, eventually reach a point that we could not repair things again. But that would also take giving up the repair projects and then forgetting how to do the repairs.

[KentsOkay]

I'm waiting for input from our resident powerline expert...

[Polie]

Sounds great for us in Phoenix, 120+ Degrees and pump stations not able to pump water. Yea we are fucked lol