Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Kommander » Thu Sep 08, 2011 7:46 pm

Damnit NoAmnesty how are we supposed to have an economy if your going to be all responsible and save your money! Saving for the future is unamerican! All Americans, all GOOD Americans need to stand up for what we believe in and spend money like there is no tomorrow. Mrs. NoAmnesty are you now or have you ever been a member of the communist party?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by crypto » Thu Sep 08, 2011 8:06 pm

Kommander wrote:All Americans, all GOOD Americans need to stand up for what we believe in and spend money like there is no tomorrow.

Unfortunately, since the US Economy is largely held afloat by the various service jobs that replaced lost manufacturing jobs, thats precisely right.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NoAm » Thu Sep 08, 2011 8:46 pm

Kommander wrote:Damnit NoAmnesty how are we supposed to have an economy if your going to be all responsible and save your money! Saving for the future is unamerican! All Americans, all GOOD Americans need to stand up for what we believe in and spend money like there is no tomorrow. Mrs. NoAmnesty are you now or have you ever been a member of the communist party?
:lol: Cool! I now feel the need for some retail therapy! Thanks Kommander! :wink:
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NoAm » Thu Sep 08, 2011 9:17 pm

crypto wrote:
Kommander wrote:All Americans, all GOOD Americans need to stand up for what we believe in and spend money like there is no tomorrow.

Unfortunately, since the US Economy is largely held afloat by the various service jobs that replaced lost manufacturing jobs, thats precisely right.
Yep, we are just a bunch of consumers :(

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Thu Sep 08, 2011 9:41 pm

I had to read it twice when they said the med field had dropped off. That doesn't happen often.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by drunkensurvivor » Thu Sep 08, 2011 10:32 pm

SeerSavant wrote:Is the Goldman Sacs article (obviously either leaked or internal) reflective of other large institutions?


I wonder how much this analysis is shared by others...
Pretty credible people are publicly talking about Greece being kicked out of the Euro, so you can take a guess as to what is being said behind closed doors... I think the Euro/Euro zone will be changed dramatically within a few years and I don't see how anyone could think much differently. I think this crisis will be worse for Europe than the 2008 crash was for America...

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Thu Sep 08, 2011 10:35 pm

Think I saw on Bloomberg online that Greece default chance raised to 91%.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Pilsung » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:19 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eur-break ... -cds-surge" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

EUR breaks July Lows as GRE/PTE CDS Surge

Despite some positive macro data (FRA) this morning, peripheral country bond yields (and CDS) continue to rise unwaveringly towards the endgame where European leaders are forced to actually do something as opposed to paper over gaping cracks with piecemeal solutions that are seen through by market participants within hours of release. Greece 5Y CDS rose 210bps to 3235bps (running equiv.) Portugal 5Y CDS rose 50bps to 1110bps. Perhaps more worryingly Germany 5Y CDS rose 3bps to 81bps as we see similar risk transfer transmissions as were evident during the US (private to public) crisis three years ago. EUR just broke through the mid-July lows of 1.3837, taking it back to mid-March lows.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Pilsung » Fri Sep 09, 2011 5:25 am

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... risis.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And then there's this...the cumulative costs of the GWOT.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NoAm » Fri Sep 09, 2011 7:14 am

Interesting article that Mr. NoAm turned me onto.

The financial crisis in Europe has become so severe that it has put the future of the euro, and indeed the future of the EU itself, in doubt. If the financial system in Europe collapses, it is going to plunge the entire globe into chaos. The EU has a larger economy and a larger population than the United States does. The EU also has more Fortune 500 companies that the United States does. If the financial system in Europe breaks down, we are all doomed. An economic collapse in Europe would unleash a financial tsunami that would sweep across the globe.................................

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... -is-doomed
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by SlobberToofTigger » Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:00 am

NoAmnesty wrote: The EU has a larger economy and a larger population than the United States does. The EU also has more Fortune 500 companies that the United States does.
The problem most people have with figuring these types of statistics is they do not understand that the UK is not part of the EU monetarily. So if the Euro fails the UK will keep limping along. If we look at the actual numbers from the world bank, the Euro using countries are about 12 trillion and the US is 14 trillion GDP wise. Also once you pull out the UK's fortune 500 the numbers get a little less scary.

With all that said it is still pretty scary because what will happen is that China's economy will fall into the dumper after the Euro and the dollar start chasing each other to the bottom of the pit because they have already played the money printing and lending games, like the US has but have not had their bubbles pop, and if demand for their goods fall they are SOL because that is the only thing supporting their economy. So that article's author is right about the real effect but wrong on how he got there... Grin.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by the_alias » Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:03 am

I'm not sure I believe China won't act to prevent a Euro collapse...
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:09 am

the_alias wrote:I'm not sure I believe China won't act to prevent a Euro collapse...
How would they do that? Much of what I see on China indicates they aren't doing that well either. Also, China isn't known for giving grants. They will purchase things and extract a major return on any investment they make.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by the_alias » Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:19 am

phil_in_cs wrote:
the_alias wrote:I'm not sure I believe China won't act to prevent a Euro collapse...
How would they do that? Much of what I see on China indicates they aren't doing that well either. Also, China isn't known for giving grants. They will purchase things and extract a major return on any investment they make.
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No I have no basis for this -China is certainly ruthless - their willingness to sell to Gadaffi in the past weeks is an example of that. I just wonder if things progressed so badly will the Chinese risk a growth of internal problems that could be a result of a crash in the west and down turn of growth within China or would they try to work toward a solution...
meh just thinking aloud.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by SlobberToofTigger » Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:26 am

phil_in_cs wrote:
the_alias wrote:I'm not sure I believe China won't act to prevent a Euro collapse...
How would they do that? Much of what I see on China indicates they aren't doing that well either. Also, China isn't known for giving grants. They will purchase things and extract a major return on any investment they make.
They are certainly the one to watch in this saga. As Phil mentioned they are not in that great of shape and their GDP is less than half of the Euro zone. If on the other hand the US, China and Japan decide to prop up the Euro that might just work for a while. But eventually the Euro will fail without significant work by the EU countries to fix their issues and Germany taking the hit for their neighbors.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Sep 09, 2011 10:05 am

the_alias wrote:I'm not sure I believe China won't act to prevent a Euro collapse...
It just to show you how the world has changed. In the 1970s if you told me that there would be numerous Russian billionaires, a united Europe would need fiscal help and that the communist Chinese would even be in a fiscal position (much less have any interest in doing so) to prop up a capitalist country's currency I would have had you drug tested...except that drug testing was rare and difficult to do...


As for China propping the Euro...all I can say is that it is possible since China can buy Euros with the USD it holds and that would prop up the Euro at least for a short term or it could lend money to the PIIGS nations. If they wanted to do so.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TC » Fri Sep 09, 2011 10:09 am

Reuters wrote: Juergen Stark to quit ECB over bond-buying row

(Reuters) - The top German official at the European Central Bank is to quit early in disagreement with the bank's policy of buying euro zone government bonds to combat the currency bloc's debt crisis.

After Reuters exclusively reported that Executive Board Member Juergen Stark, the central bank's chief economist, would quit, the ECB confirmed that he would leave before the end of the year once a replacement had been found.

The euro fell immediately on the shock development, which dramatised a rift inside the central bank over the handling of the deepening debt crisis and could undermine German public support for the euro.

Stark's departure, almost three years before his term is due to expire in May 2014, would deepen a gulf between the ECB, which manages the currency of the 17-nation European currency area, and German guardians of central bank orthodoxy...(continued at link)
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by SeerSavant » Fri Sep 09, 2011 11:26 am

President Asks Congress for $447 Billion In Cuts, Spending

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 63074.html
President Barack Obama called on Congress Thursday to pass a $447 billion package of spending initiatives and tax cuts to boost economic growth, in what might be the White House's last chance to revive its political fortunes before the 2012 campaign kicks into high gear.

More than half of Mr. Obama's plan consists of payroll-tax cuts for employees and employers—an idea the White House hopes will appeal enough to Republican lawmakers—and is the policy that could have the best chance to pass.

Among other measures, the president also called for more than $62 billion in spending to extend unemployment insurance benefits through 2012 and fund programs to alleviate long-term joblessness. He also proposed $140 billion in infrastructure spending and aid to states.

The president's plan, unveiled in a speech to a joint session of Congress, is an attempt to wrest the initiative in Washington's protracted debate about fiscal policy. Both parties emerged from the debt-ceiling fight this summer with their approval ratings heading south as the economy stalled with the unemployment rate stuck above 9%.
Why is it, no one can admit that unemployment (even with tricky and misleading use of data) It's been double digits for a while.
Mr. Obama studiously avoided calling his American Jobs Act a "stimulus" plan, a term freighted with political baggage. But it calls for tens of billions of dollars in aid to state and local governments, including cash for hiring teachers and refurbishing schools, as well as a $10 billion infrastructure bank and $50 billion for transportation projects......

Mr. Obama will call on a congressional supercommittee crafting a deficit-reduction package to aim for a larger number that also pays for his $447 billion plan over the next decade. He said he will put forward a plan for the committee on Sept. 19.
Hey, looks like the SUCS have their first superhero task....
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:04 pm

For those who though the US debt downgrade would result in the USD collapsing quickly this development should prove interesting.
Yields fall to 60-year lows on Europe worries

On Friday September 9, 2011, 1:04 pm
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices rose on Friday, taking benchmark yields to the lowest in at least 60 years as investors looked for a safe haven on revived worries a European debt crisis could have a significant global impact.
Treasury debt prices rose on Friday, taking benchmark yields to the lowest in at least 60 years as investors looked for a safe haven on revived worries a European debt crisis could have a significant global impact.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Yields-fa ... et=&ccode=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


I am not saying the USD is bullet proof or that there are no issues surrounding it. Only that it seems to the least ugly currency...right now anyway.


I think this also bolsters the argument that if the Euro does collapse that the USD would likely be seen as a safe haven currency. Time will tell though and one sale does not make a trend.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by SlobberToofTigger » Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:14 pm

raptor wrote:I am not saying the USD is bullet proof or that there are no issues surrounding it. Only that it seems to the least ugly currency...right now anyway.


I think this also bolsters the argument that if the Euro does collapse that the USD would likely be seen as a safe haven currency. Time will tell though and one sale does not make a trend.
This is one of the things that has bothered me about books like Aftershock. They do not take into account the worsening of the rest of the globe sufficiently and what that might do for the US dollar. They seem to take the position that no matter what the US dollar will fail and be buried. But I have always felt that there are some scenarios where the US dollar remains in pretty good shape VS the other world currencies but does take a bit of a nose dive for a period of time.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NoAm » Fri Sep 09, 2011 3:04 pm

SeerSavant wrote:President Asks Congress for $447 Billion In Cuts, Spending

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 63074.html
President Barack Obama called on Congress Thursday to pass a $447 billion package of spending initiatives and tax cuts to boost economic growth, in what might be the White House's last chance to revive its political fortunes before the 2012 campaign kicks into high gear.

More than half of Mr. Obama's plan consists of payroll-tax cuts for employees and employers—an idea the White House hopes will appeal enough to Republican lawmakers—and is the policy that could have the best chance to pass.

Among other measures, the president also called for more than $62 billion in spending to extend unemployment insurance benefits through 2012 and fund programs to alleviate long-term joblessness. He also proposed $140 billion in infrastructure spending and aid to states.

The president's plan, unveiled in a speech to a joint session of Congress, is an attempt to wrest the initiative in Washington's protracted debate about fiscal policy. Both parties emerged from the debt-ceiling fight this summer with their approval ratings heading south as the economy stalled with the unemployment rate stuck above 9%.
Why is it, no one can admit that unemployment (even with tricky and misleading use of data) It's been double digits for a while.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NoAm » Fri Sep 09, 2011 4:37 pm

More Volatility as Stocks Drop Sharply

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/busin ... .html?_r=1
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Mon Sep 12, 2011 8:19 am

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... reece.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Philipp Roesler, Germany’s economy minister, said an “orderly default” for Greece could no longer be ruled out and branded the country’s deficit-reduction measures “insufficient”.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Mon Sep 12, 2011 8:31 am

Greece workers will reportedly strike if the proposed property tax is passed. Even though it has been warned Greece will be out of cash next month. No win situation. It's gonna happen. Damage control should be looked at vs stalling an action that is inevitable.
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