Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

Moderator: ZS Global Moderators

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 17053
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:46 am

Apparently Puerto Rico is going to default on a $58 million principal and interest payment on a non-general obligation bond. They claim they do not have the money and thus apparently did not appropriate the funds to pay it.

This is an interesting tactic since they cannot file for bankruptcy they obviously are taking the approach of an aggressive debtor and simply will not pay the debt. To the best of my knowledge a US state has never done this before and there is no real precident for this. Yes I know Puerto Rico is not a state but the bankruptcy laws apparently treat PR as a state. So this is likely to get the attention of the municipal and state bond markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... bt-payment

User avatar
NamelessStain
* * * * *
Posts: 2659
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:08 am
Location: Coastal SC

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:16 am

NamelessStain wrote:Here's a new change in Venezuela:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... state.html

Hmmm... trying to remember when this happened last.
http://news.yahoo.com/looting-violence- ... ector.html

Hmmmm... guess they didn't claim enough.
jnathan wrote:Since we lost some posts due to some database work I'll just put this here for posterity.
Q wrote:Buckle up

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:39 pm

Are central banks on the verge of losing control?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/1180 ... ntrol.html

User avatar
NamelessStain
* * * * *
Posts: 2659
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:08 am
Location: Coastal SC

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:19 am

jnathan wrote:Since we lost some posts due to some database work I'll just put this here for posterity.
Q wrote:Buckle up

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 17053
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:34 pm

Boy what an ugly week for the US market.

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/

Down 5.44% for the week. Ouch.

Image

User avatar
Stercutus
* * * * *
Posts: 14250
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:16 pm
Location: Safe On Base

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:33 am

I am thinking the QE money train is just about run out. So what are we going to do? More QE? Can't let that stock market dip any....
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

User avatar
Valarius
* * * * *
Posts: 3231
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 12:42 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shaun of the Dead and many of Romero's films.
Location: Around Nevada.

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Valarius » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:26 am

It looks like China's debt time bomb finally exploded. They're referring to it as "Black Monday". The Guardian is keeping a live blog of stock markets around the world.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... 434a2b0980
See you around, HK. And remember folks: victory is surviving to watch another sunrise.

My female avatar is Saeko Busujima from High School Of The Dead. I'm a dude. :mrgreen:

Homeless survival techniques.

User avatar
NamelessStain
* * * * *
Posts: 2659
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:08 am
Location: Coastal SC

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:36 am

Valarius wrote:It looks like China's debt time bomb finally exploded. They're referring to it as "Black Monday". The Guardian is keeping a live blog of stock markets around the world.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... 434a2b0980
Here's the Fox News version:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2015 ... ina-fears/
jnathan wrote:Since we lost some posts due to some database work I'll just put this here for posterity.
Q wrote:Buckle up

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:01 am


User avatar
Stercutus
* * * * *
Posts: 14250
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:16 pm
Location: Safe On Base

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:25 pm

Valarius wrote:It looks like China's debt time bomb finally exploded. They're referring to it as "Black Monday". The Guardian is keeping a live blog of stock markets around the world.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... 434a2b0980
Nah, the issue isn't debt, at least not yet.


The DOW has recovered and is now down only about 140 points. Gonna be a bumpy ride.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 17053
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:33 pm

Stercutus wrote:
The DOW has recovered and is now down only about 140 points. Gonna be a bumpy ride.
It is going to be a bumpy ride until after Labor Day and then it will get even bumpier. :D

Many of the traders are out on vacation this week and next week.

This is good advice in general. I am not too scared by these market adjustments at lease right now. Never the less this remains good advice.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 69509.html

A former adviser to Gordon Brown has urged people to stock up on canned goods and bottled water as stock markets around the world slide.

Damian McBride appeared to suggest that the stock market dip could lead to civil disorder or other situations where it would be unreasonable for someone to leave the house.

“Advice on the looming crash, No.1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don't assume banks & cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work,” he tweeted.

“Crash advice No.2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping.

“Crash advice No.3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to.”

This is the first time I have seen these exact figures posted. The stock market "circuit breakers" have tripped in the past and will likely trip in the future. I am not saying these are new just that I have not seen this exact figure posted.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... plunges-7-

If U.S. stocks extend their losses, traders will get a moment to catch their breath.
The thousands of companies listed by the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market will pause for 15 minutes if the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunges 7 percent before 3:25 p.m. New York time. The benchmark got close earlier, falling as much as 5.3 percent.
Market-wide circuit breakers were installed after the 1987 crash to prevent losses from snowballing. The levels that trigger a halt have varied over the years, with a rule change in 2013 lowering the threshold to 7 percent.
OK here is the regs revised in 2013.

https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/ma ... cb_faq.pdf

This revised rule made a reduction in the market declines percentages threshold necessary to trigger a circuit
from 10, 20 and 30 percent to 7, 13 and 20 percent from the previous day’s close. It shortened the duration of
the halts from 30, 60 or 120 minutes to 15 minutes. Finally, the revision changed the pricing reference to
measure the market decline from the DJIA to the S&P 500 Index.

User avatar
Stercutus
* * * * *
Posts: 14250
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:16 pm
Location: Safe On Base

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon Aug 24, 2015 4:58 pm

Down 3.5% for the day on the DOW.

Mass chaos on Wall St. Good thing I have lots of canned goods.

Image
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 17053
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:41 pm

This is certainly an adjustment into correction territory. However, I would note that this is the market reacting to its own issues as opposed to 2008 where there was true liquidity crisis. One thing you take comfort in that the LIBOR rates are not out of whack like in 2008.

Historical chart :

http://www.macrotrends.net/1433/histori ... ates-chart


Now the world markets may go to feces tomorrow and cats may cohabitate with dogs but it will not be the result of a liquidity issue like in 2008.

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:34 am

At any rate, if it all goes to hell I'm assured that preppers will be the last ones standing.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology ... lf-6310887

User avatar
Stercutus
* * * * *
Posts: 14250
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:16 pm
Location: Safe On Base

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:06 pm

And.... the DOW is up 330 points.

I am thinking it will be bumpy until the retail reports for the holidays start coming in.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

absinthe beginner
* * * * *
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 11:05 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Shawn of the Dead
Location: Colorado

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:32 pm

Stercutus said: And.... the DOW is up 330 points.
A bit premature there….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-2 ... sal-lehman

User avatar
NamelessStain
* * * * *
Posts: 2659
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:08 am
Location: Coastal SC

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:10 am

And Venezuela adds a 0 to their currency:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... tion-soars

Eerily similar to what happened in Zimbabwe:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinfl ... n_Zimbabwe

This will definitely be something to watch over the next year+

Oh, can't forget the food riots, fun for the whole family:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas- ... 1440581400
jnathan wrote:Since we lost some posts due to some database work I'll just put this here for posterity.
Q wrote:Buckle up

User avatar
NamelessStain
* * * * *
Posts: 2659
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:08 am
Location: Coastal SC

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Tue Sep 01, 2015 6:05 am

jnathan wrote:Since we lost some posts due to some database work I'll just put this here for posterity.
Q wrote:Buckle up

User avatar
Stercutus
* * * * *
Posts: 14250
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:16 pm
Location: Safe On Base

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:28 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:
Stercutus said: And.... the DOW is up 330 points.
A bit premature there….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-2 ... sal-lehman
By bumpy I meant high volatility. Today it is down about 433 points. Over five days up 500 points. Over a month down 1500. Pretty bumpy. Gonna stay volatile for a while.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

User avatar
duodecima
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 2951
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:18 pm

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by duodecima » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:36 pm

Stercutus wrote:
absinthe beginner wrote:
Stercutus said: And.... the DOW is up 330 points.
A bit premature there….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-2 ... sal-lehman
By bumpy I meant high volatility. Today it is down about 433 points. Over five days up 500 points. Over a month down 1500. Pretty bumpy. Gonna stay volatile for a while.
I imagine this is easier to ride out when you've got a longer time frame until you want whatever money you have in the market. One of my colleagues pulled his retirement out into money markets towards the bottom of the last crash because he 'couldn't take it' yet is still bitter about the loss of money (and still not retired.) Mine had come all the way back plus some by the time we had that conversation.

Also, I was headed over here anyway because I ran across this article - and it's a summary of something fairly technical not in my field so I have no more than a clue how to evaluate it (catchy headline? Real thing?) but wanted to see what some of you thought?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11932fc0-4ca1 ... z3kdfumVrl
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11932fc0-4ca1 ... z3kdgnYHsj

World faces third deflationary wave
Dominic Rossi

EM crisis means further fall in potential global output is unavoidable

The world economy is bearing the brunt of a third deflationary wave in less than a decade. The first was the US-led housing and financial crisis of 2008-9, the second wave was the eurozone crisis of 2011-12, and now a third, an emerging markets crisis.
"When someone shows you who they are believe them" M. Angelou

williaty
* * * * *
Posts: 1702
Joined: Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:50 am
Location: Midwest

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by williaty » Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:43 pm

duodecima wrote:Also, I was headed over here anyway because I ran across this article - and it's a summary of something fairly technical not in my field so I have no more than a clue how to evaluate it (catchy headline? Real thing?) but wanted to see what some of you thought?
Is there any way to read that which doesn't require paying them for a subscription?

User avatar
duodecima
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 2951
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:18 pm

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by duodecima » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:08 pm

williaty wrote:
duodecima wrote:Also, I was headed over here anyway because I ran across this article - and it's a summary of something fairly technical not in my field so I have no more than a clue how to evaluate it (catchy headline? Real thing?) but wanted to see what some of you thought?
Is there any way to read that which doesn't require paying them for a subscription?
It let me answer 2 multiple choice questions (I just make stuff up), didn't realize it wouldn't do that for everybody. Gimme a sec here...

Try that one.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/11932fc0 ... z3kVyT73WP

Failing all else, I picked this up off twitter, the link from the tweet itself (tweet linked here) has consistantly worked for me.

Sorry for the hassle!
"When someone shows you who they are believe them" M. Angelou

williaty
* * * * *
Posts: 1702
Joined: Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:50 am
Location: Midwest

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by williaty » Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:43 pm

Huh, all ways demand money if I try to read in Firefox. However, if I use Safari, it lets me see the article for free.

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 17053
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:35 am

I cannot see the article without a subscription. That said we are seeing significant deflationary trends in the commodity markets (oil, coal,copper,gold,silver,et.al).

Despite the vitrol that fracking generates in the US, it generates high paying jobs and consumption of all kinds of things in the economy. The same goes for mining of copper,coal and so on. Yes we still have lots if that activity in the US.The commodity price declone means these industries are slowing activity,deferring projects and spending as well as laying off people not just in the US but world wide.

Iron ore miners in Australia, petrochemical workers in Canada are examples. Canada gas recently announced it is in a recession. All you have to do to see this is look at the declines of all currencies against the USD. Let MA assure you the USD has NOT done anything to its balance to deserve the strengthening it has enjoyed.

There is credible evidence that the upsurge in US oil exploration and production had a very significant positive impact on the US economy. The domestic oil industry added a lot of wealth to many US families all over the US. So it's current decline in commodity prices is certainly not good news for the economy.

BTW copper and iron ore demand is a good indication of industry in general, since these basic building blocks tend to follow industrial demand which in turn is an indicator of the economy in general.


links: some old some new.
http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/re ... ng-workers

https://secure.marketwatch.com/story/ch ... 2014-11-30

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/09/01/ca ... can-report

http://www.mining.com/price-slump-promp ... re-canada/

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-layoffs ... 1429055740

Post Reply

Return to “Contingency Planning & Preparation”