Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by duodecima » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:48 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:As I read news accounts of Greek panic-buying of foodstuffs and other essentials as they brace for an uncertain future, I thought it might be a good time to remind fellow ZSers that there's no time like the present to ensure you're stocked up on items that may be hard to obtain if contagion from the Grece crisis (not to mention China) leads to a more generalized financial meltdown.

http://survivalcache.com/37-things-you- ... bly-arent/
They either forgot toilet paper, or assumed you already knew to stock it.

The panic buying made me think that so many basic preps are applicable for multiple situations - 3 mo pantry plus a normal cash stash would cover so many of these issues just as well as they'd cover job loss.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:23 pm

An interesting article on Greece.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eur ... story.html

IMO food would have been a better purchase. :wink:
And so 48-year-old Sophia Marcoulakis is considering converting her cash into something more stable: a designer handbag.

It’s a luxury the mother of two never would have allowed herself before the banks shut down. But now she considers it an investment, a tangible possession that the government cannot take away.
“You have a feeling that money has lost its value,” said Marcoulakis, a corporate lawyer. “It’s just a number.”
The electronic system still seems to function.
Electronic debit transactions are still allowed, but some stores have stopped accepting them. Credit card purchases on Amazon and iTunes are prohibited. Greeks can withdraw only 60 euros a day in cash from banks, the equivalent of about $67.
A bit more sensible.
Kostas Theodoropoulos, former head of investment at Eurobank Asset Management, estimated that 40 percent of withdrawals were simply transferred to foreign bank accounts. Another 10 percent or so were invested in mutual funds domiciled in Luxembourg, he said, and the remaining 50 percent of withdrawals were stuffed under the mattress.
An example of the conundrum of what do you do with PM s in a situation like this.
Before the financial freeze, customers lined up at Nikias in the wealthy Kolonaki neighborhood of Athens to sell their jewels and Rolex watches in return for cash. But over the past week, the shop’s owner said he has had 20 to 30 calls interested in the opposite exchange.

The owner, who declined to give his name, said the callers wanted to buy gold coins and kilo bars — the most expensive items his store carries. But he no longer accepts electronic bank transfers because he is worried about a potential loss on deposits himself.

“Then we would be the ones to have the problem,” he said.

So his shop is stuck in a Catch-22: He will take only cash, but none of his customers can access enough to purchase his goods.

“Everyone is on hold,” he said.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:21 am

And now it seems China is in the crosshairs of financial issues:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... reece.html
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Wed Jul 08, 2015 12:16 pm

Trading was temporarily halted on the NYSE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nyse-temp ... 49443.html

United Airlines grounds flights due to computer problems
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/07/08/un ... er-issues/

The WSJ also seems to be having problems.
http://www.poynter.org/news/mediawire/3 ... suspended/


This picture represents the official explanation thus far.

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Seems like some network issues are occurring.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by sheddi » Wed Jul 08, 2015 4:30 pm

raptor wrote:The electronic system still seems to function.
Electronic debit transactions are still allowed, but some stores have stopped accepting them. Credit card purchases on Amazon and iTunes are prohibited. Greeks can withdraw only 60 euros a day in cash from banks, the equivalent of about $67.
My understanding from British media reports is that the Greek capital controls are intended to stem the flow of capital leaving Greek banks. You can't electronically transfer money out of the country, and limiting the withdrawal of cash at ATMs or bank counters prevents Greeks from stuffing hard currency into their suitcases and mattresses.

Foreigners, on the other hand, are still able to spend their hard-earned holiday funds on Greek goods and services. Greece is a major tourist destination for northern Europeans (last time I was on Crete during the summer there seemed to be more Germans there than any other nationality, Greeks included) and tourism reportedly makes up for 18% of Greek GDP. Reports are that foreign bank cards aren't affected by the €60/day cash withdrawal limit, although advice from tour operators is to take enough cash for your entire vacation. (Many travel insurance firms have doubled the amount of cash covered for travellers to Greece in response to this.)

Here's a link, with video:
Greece debt crisis: Advice for foreign tourists
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33405604
More than a million British holidaymakers will be heading to Greece this summer, and as the debt crisis unfolds many will naturally be feeling nervous about how it could affect them.

The country's banks are shut and there are restrictions on how much Greeks can withdraw from banks.

But credit and bank cards issued abroad can be used at functioning cash machines freely - subject to queues and the amount of cash in them.

Gillian Edwards, from the Association of British Travel Agents, spoke to the BBC's Victoria Derbyshire, and said tourists should consider taking enough cash to cover the entire duration of their holiday.
Regarding the wider European picture, Greece is relatively insignificant. It may be 13th largest out of the 28 members but it's only 1.3% of the EU economy. The five largest and most populous countries - Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain - have trillion-Euro GDPs ans between them make up 80% of the EU economy, with the other 23 members being relatively small (sorry Netherlands, Sweden, Poland etc. but it's true). If we were looking at Spain or Italy - two of the other PIIGS - failing to make IMF payments it would be a whole different situation.

All that said, Greece seems to be in a very difficult situation. At least one Greek bank was reported earlier this week as only avoiding a liquidity crisis when a major business customer deposited their payroll in cash. It's going to be interesting to see how this pans out.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by wee drop o' bush » Thu Jul 09, 2015 5:48 am

In the Republic of Ireland which is in the Euro, the threat of a Grexit is constantly on the news. My relatives living in the R.O.I. have went so far as to contact their banks here in N.I. (Sterling) about a quick bank transfer of savings in Euros up north into their Sterling accounts. Its knowing when and if to do so, because if they jump the gun then they'll lose money unnecessarily :|
This issue affects a lot more people living in the R.O.I than you'd think.
Hopefully the Grexit won't occur.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Thu Jul 09, 2015 6:06 am

NamelessStain wrote:And now it seems China is in the crosshairs of financial issues:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... reece.html
More on China.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... loses.html
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TacAir » Thu Jul 09, 2015 4:33 pm

And the beat goes on...

(July 8)
The Greek government just laid down its plans for another bailout to its European creditors.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Greece is asking for a three-year bailout from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), more often known as Europe's bailout fund.

A document seen by The Journal reportedly contains promises to "implement tax reforms and pension changes as early as next week."

We're yet to hear further details of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' proposal, which comes after his resounding win in Sunday's referendum, with more than 60% of Greek voters rejecting the existing proposed bailout deal.

Athens is brushing up against what could be an extremely painful deadline: The country owes €3.5 billion ($3.85 billion, £2.50 billion) to the European Central Bank on July 20. The ECB is in charge of providing emergency support for the Greek financial system, and its banks are running extremely short of physical cash.

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/report-g ... z3fQrn3QK5
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Thorne » Thu Jul 09, 2015 8:41 pm

TacAir wrote:The country owes €3.5 billion ($3.85 billion, £2.50 billion) to the European Central Bank on July 20.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/report-g ... z3fQrn3QK5
I wonder what that will be in Drachma EQ/Euro GR...

Between June 28 and July 4 at a Hilton hotel in Athens, transactions on a Bloomberg reporter's Visa credit card issued by Citigroup Inc. were posted as being carried out in ``Drachma EQ." The inexplicable notation flummoxed two very polite customer service representatives and spokesmen for the companies involved. It depicts a currency changeover that the Greek government and European officials have been working for over six months to avoid.

Business has been so brisk in the giant Kotsovolos appliance and electronics store in this upper-middle-class suburb of Athens that you might think a sale was on. But, no. It is panic buying, those who work here say. Increasingly concerned that greater economic trouble lies ahead of them, and limited in how much cash they can take out of banks, Greeks have been using their debit cards to buy ovens, refrigerators, dishwashers — anything tangible that can hold its value in troubled times.

and just for fun...

Unbelievable scenes on the island of Lesvos as refugees try to raid a food truck. With hundreds of refugees and undocumented migrants arrive daily to Greece from Turkey, the situation has gone out of control.

What a shit show... :clap:

But as always.. there is hope! Now with groovy info graphics!
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In the aftermath of the latest breakout of the Greek crisis, Europeans across the continent, not just in Greece scrambled to buy physical gold and silver.

This is what the UK Royal Mint said a week ago, "During June, we experienced twice the expected demand for Sovereign bullion coins from our customers based in Greece."

Other dealers had comparable experiences: “Most of our common gold coins are sold out,” Daniel Marburger, a director of Frankfurt-based CoinInvest.com, said by phone. “When people learned that the Greek banks will be closed, they started to think that it may not be such a bad idea to have some money in gold.”

GoldCore, which buys and sells bullion, reported coin and bar demand increased “significantly” on Monday. Sales to U.K. and Ireland today are about three times the average level for the past three Mondays, according to an e-mailed statement from the Dublin-based firm.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:23 am

It sounds like Greece and Germany may have looked over the cliff and decided compromise may be better route.

Time will tell though.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... elief.html
In a highly significant move, the European Council has called on both sides to make major concessions, insisting that the creditor powers must do their part as the radical Syriza government puts forward a new raft of proposals on economic reforms before a deadline expires tonight.
This is very close to negotiating with someone who has nothing to lose if things go wrong. That is a nightmare scenario in any negotiation. Still it looks like Greece did indeed decide that it had enough to lose to make compromise a better route.
A report by the IMF said a debt haircut of 30pc of GDP “would be required” to meet the original debt targets agreed in 2012. This could be achieved be stretching out the maturities of bonds to forty years and lowering the interest rate, sparing EMU governments the political pain of having to crystalize direct losses for their taxpayers.
Basically it looks like the bond holders will have to extend the repayment terms and cut interest rates. Assuming of course the bondholders actually get paid, this is much better than a write off of principal...at least from a (GAAP) financial reporting perspective. The asset write down in value is much lower and thus the current year dent in earnings is reduced. The holders will likely write down the values further but they have a justifiable reason for deferring that write down.

Yes it is smoke and mirrors....but ....nothing to see here ...move along. :wink:

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Myana » Mon Jul 13, 2015 8:12 am

Looks like Europe avoided the Grexit:

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2 ... ilout.html

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Emeraldfox12 » Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:23 am

A lot of annalists on the news here (N.Ireland. We get great Brittan news) are saying that Greece made a really bad and Toxic deal with Europe to get them to agree with this.

things are so bad in Greece at the moment there only allowing people to withdraw a maximum amount of 40 euros a day from tehre banks and Atm machines

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Valarius » Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:52 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/ ... EO20150715

The Hellenic Parliament has passed the new, tougher bailout measures. It remains to be seen whether Germany will agree to the bailout money needed, or for how long Alexis Tsipras will be Prime Minister.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by aikorob » Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:42 pm

I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they’ve always worked for me.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:45 am

Here's a new change in Venezuela:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... state.html

Hmmm... trying to remember when this happened last.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:16 pm

NamelessStain wrote:Here's a new change in Venezuela:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... state.html

Hmmm... trying to remember when this happened last.
Literally every year. Venezuela is a dictatorship with large swaths of industry owned by the state. Their oil industry was nationalized by democratic vote in the 70s, for instance, and their government at the time was in the middle of creating OPEC. Oil is still the bulk of their economy, but agriculture is a tiny fraction. The state's owned the stores that the food will be shipped to for a long time.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by KGBrick » Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:27 pm

2016: Farms nationalized for refusing to sell food.
2017: Cows nationalized for refusing to produce milk.
2018: Grass nationalized for refusing to feed cows.
2019: Nature nationalized for refusing to grow grass.
2020: God nationalized for refusing to fix nature.
2021: Venezuelan government nationalizes itself, appears baffled when this doesn't make everything work.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:30 pm

Greece appears to be getting back normal capital control wise. The Greek central bank official loosened controls a little on foreign payments.

http://news.yahoo.com/greece-loosens-ca ... ector.html
"The daily limit (on money transfers) has been raised to 100,000 euros from 50,000 euros," central bank governor Yannis Stournaras told reporters, adding that this covered almost 70 percent of requests.

Greek businesses have been hit by limits on transferring money abroad to pay for imports of raw material and other items since capital controls started on June 29, and have had to apply to a special committee for permission to pay their foreign suppliers, a time-consuming process.

Why is this important?

It affects the import of foreign goods in Greece.

So for instance fuel arrives normally via pipeline or tanker. A tanker holds literally millions of $ of fuel that has to be paid for before the cargo is discharged. No wire transfer (or letter of credit) no fuel delivery.

Obviously a single delivery like this is beyond the cap and central bank approval is still required but it illustrates the issue facing businesses in Greece.

Especially when you remember that food, medicine and similar key supplies are imported every day in large quantities. BTW that is why the cap permits only 70% of the transactions. Those 30% requiring approval generally are large and/or expensive shipments of vital goods. They will be delayed by the bureaucracy of central bank approval for the release of the funds.

Most Americans have trouble wrapping their head around this type of control since we not have experience with capital controls. However, imagine if you want to purchase something large, you have cash in the bank to purchase it so you write a check for the amount due but then had to go to nearest US Federal Reserve office (which is likely in another state) to fill out a form, wait in line, explain what you were doing and why, pay a fee ( an additional bribe is also not unusual) to get the official rubber stamp on the form and then give a copy to both your bank for their files and the seller along with your payments, assuming the transaction is approved of course.

BTW, If the central bank says no, then you are SOL for that transaction. You then need to structure the transaction in such a way to lawfully avoid the capital controls (assuming that can be done).

Now imagine that on a country wide basis for all businesses.

It is very likely that these added steps will slow down commerce and add costs that have to passed along in the cost of sales.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:14 am

jnathan wrote:Since we lost some posts due to some database work I'll just put this here for posterity.
Q wrote:Buckle up

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Tue Jul 28, 2015 6:07 am

Looks like China dropped another 8.5% on their markets:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... sures.html
jnathan wrote:Since we lost some posts due to some database work I'll just put this here for posterity.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TacAir » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:49 pm

Rooter news service says:

One person was killed and dozens were detained following looting of supermarkets in Venezuela's southeastern city of Ciudad Guayana, the state governor said on Friday, amid the ongoing food shortages in the recession-hit OPEC nation.

Shoppers seeking scarce consumer staples including milk, rice and flour broke into a supermarket warehouse on Friday morning, leading businesses in the area to shut their doors, local newspaper Correo del Caroni reported.

Things just moved up one level - what's next?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:52 pm

TacAir wrote:Rooter news service says:

One person was killed and dozens were detained following looting of supermarkets in Venezuela's southeastern city of Ciudad Guayana, the state governor said on Friday, amid the ongoing food shortages in the recession-hit OPEC nation.

Shoppers seeking scarce consumer staples including milk, rice and flour broke into a supermarket warehouse on Friday morning, leading businesses in the area to shut their doors, local newspaper Correo del Caroni reported.

Things just moved up one level - what's next?
Is it really "up one level" compared to what's been going on for the past few years?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TacAir » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:59 pm

Doctorr Fabulous wrote:
TacAir wrote:Rooter news service says:

One person was killed and dozens were detained following looting of supermarkets in Venezuela's southeastern city of Ciudad Guayana, the state governor said on Friday, amid the ongoing food shortages in the recession-hit OPEC nation.

Shoppers seeking scarce consumer staples including milk, rice and flour broke into a supermarket warehouse on Friday morning, leading businesses in the area to shut their doors, local newspaper Correo del Caroni reported.

Things just moved up one level - what's next?
Is it really "up one level" compared to what's been going on for the past few years?
I may have missed the stories on food riots that got folks killed. When did the earlier one(s) happen?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:04 pm

TacAir wrote:
Doctorr Fabulous wrote:
TacAir wrote:Rooter news service says:

One person was killed and dozens were detained following looting of supermarkets in Venezuela's southeastern city of Ciudad Guayana, the state governor said on Friday, amid the ongoing food shortages in the recession-hit OPEC nation.

Shoppers seeking scarce consumer staples including milk, rice and flour broke into a supermarket warehouse on Friday morning, leading businesses in the area to shut their doors, local newspaper Correo del Caroni reported.

Things just moved up one level - what's next?
Is it really "up one level" compared to what's been going on for the past few years?
I may have missed the stories on food riots that got folks killed. When did the earlier one(s) happen?
Generalized rioting for several years in increasing levels. I don't know the cause of each one.

The "what's next" is likely to mirror Argentina even further, or perhaps the Arab Spring would be a better model. Increasing violence, military will divide into a few factions, paramilitary and militia groups gain more power, etc. It's not a pretty sight, but it's one that's pretty common in world history.
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