Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Das Sheep » Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:41 pm

Zero if you do not like this thread / are not interested in it, why not just, you know, not read or post in it?

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by zero11010 » Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:56 pm

Das Sheep wrote:Zero if you do not like this thread / are not interested in it, why not just, you know, not read or post in it?
I'll assume that wasn't a subtle "go away" and answer literally.

Since you asked, I posted questions about why a large thread that is breaking one of the basic rules of the forums is allowed. I got an answer. I was done.

Someone posted a rebuttal to something I said (I had just explained this a few real time minutes ago) so I responded. Their response was very much off topic and making a big deal out of very small issues (for example the suggestion that one college with 28 campuses and 16k total students closing would be of significant impact to the US as a country, and more importantly to the global economy as a whole, or perhaps they felt that this college closing while under investigation for fraud and other things was a direct result of the current global debt time bomb exploding any moment now).

Another person responded, again with things that can easily be explained as things that are off topic and breaking one of the forum rules (though I think the next poster was at least pointing at significant financial issues).

To be clear
* the idea of keeping track of financial issues is of interest to me
* the idea of keeping track of current disasters is of interest to me

It's frustrating as a member of the community when I show up to look at something and see it misrepresented.

If there was a thread about the new single stack 9mm glock and there were 100 pages of thread talking about paintball guns I would be frustrated, too.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Thorne » Thu Apr 30, 2015 1:37 am

zero11010 wrote:
Das Sheep wrote:Zero if you do not like this thread / are not interested in it, why not just, you know, not read or post in it?
I'll assume that wasn't a subtle "go away" and answer literally.

To be clear
* the idea of keeping track of financial issues is of interest to me
* the idea of keeping track of current disasters is of interest to me

It's frustrating as a member of the community when I show up to look at something and see it misrepresented.
Regardless of anyone else I like that you are here participating, if nothing else it compels me to better refine and update my positions. I do think you need to manage your expectations a little though.

I treat this thread as a catch all for economic news/activity that could impact a significant number of ppl. It's why I've been posting Greek stuff here lately. Greece is a reflection of what is happening all over the world, Governments are spending more than they're making and covering the difference with credit. Fundamentally it's a cheque kiting scheme writ large.

In finance there are 3.5 and 7 year cycles and when this thread was started (7years ago) it was unimaginable a government would spend 3,000,000,000,000 dollars to buy equities and prevent a market contraction but here we are...

To carry out QE central banks create money by buying securities, such as government bonds, from banks, with electronic cash that did not exist before. The new money swells the size of bank reserves in the economy by the quantity of assets purchased—hence "quantitative" easing.

Governments are holding record amounts of Bad debt.. money that will never be paid because it isn't real.. it doesn't represent anything of value. Not unlike the student loans issue which is much much bigger that 1 school and a few thousand students.

New York, April 08, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for downgrade the ratings of 14 tranches in 14 securitizations backed by student loans originated under the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP). Approximately $3.0 billion of asset-backed securities affected
zero11010 wrote:I think your best case estimate [On Greece] is more than a little morbid. We may not have to wait very long to find out what happens if Greece defaults. It won't be pretty, but it isn't going to collapse the world's economy. [...] I'm saying that I don't think these specific issues pose a threat to the whole world's economy.[...] I can't find anything from a reputable source
Feel free to post the your sources for rationing behind your thoughts... I've tried to include references to the sources I trust so people can do their own research.
zero11010 wrote:It seems very self centered to be so focused on small scale issues with the US economy. We're talking about the world's economy, and specifically, it "exploding soon." What about these figures (which are a little off) do you think is going to impact the WHOLE WORLD ... ANY MOMENT NOW?
Those small scale things are what makes everything so fragile and set up the cascades that do have global ripples. Just like low wages for workers. Low wages/low buying power mean you can't eat good food consistently which impacts your health and ability to work. It impacts your ability to repay student loans, buy a house, chase a dream. Buying => selling => manufacturing => resource harvesting... It's all connected.

I said it before, "Soon is relative" In this case I'm not expecting it this week or next specifically, but I do expect Q3 of this year will be interesting and I fully expect it to impact my ability to buy land in the next 5 years.
zero11010 wrote: Want a topic about financial woes around the world? Start one!
Want a topic about income disparity? Start one!
Want a topic about the Greek economy? Start one!
#1 That's this thread! :lol:
#2 Probably too political :wink:
#3 See #1 :D
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by duodecima » Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:23 am

Thorne wrote:
zero11010 wrote: Want a topic about financial woes around the world? Start one!
Want a topic about income disparity? Start one!
Want a topic about the Greek economy? Start one!
#1 That's this thread! :lol:
I think it might be best to consider this thread a tongue-in-cheek-titled version of #1. An underground trash or mine fire might be a better analogy than a bomb, it's just not as catchy a title.

You can make an argument that CP&P would be better than DICE but I don't know that uprooting the thread is really worth it at this point, and current events is definitely the focus of what we're talking about.

I too appreciate the posters who take the time to keep on top of things and bring us the interesting bits and good sources. I know first hand how much time that can take up sometimes!
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:14 pm

The Greek Debt crisis is getting interesting. IMO it will not result in TEOTWAKI but it may provoke some bumps.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-readie ... 00583.html

The interesting part is that Greece has figured out that old saying "If I owe the bank a $1,000 they own me. If I owe the bank(s) several billion, I own the the banks." also applies to sovereign debt.
Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Tsipras to accept the framework for financial aid as the German public turns against supporting Greece and euro-area officials demanded a proposal for stabilizing the country’s debt by the end of Friday. The International Monetary Fund team left Brussels earlier this week, despairing of Tsipras’s tactics.

In response, Greece ruled out cutting pensions and demanded a debt restructuring. Bank stocks plunged.

“People are really fed up with this,” UniCredit SpA Chief Global Economist Erik Nielsen said in a television interview. “They’ve never seen anything so completely ridiculous, frankly speaking, from a debtor country.”
Translation:
Greece: Hey EU I am not going to pay my debts.

EU: Well we won't "loan" you anymore money if you do not pay your debts.

Greece: That is fine since then we won't owe you any more money and you will lose any chance of getting any of the debts repaid (even at pennies on the Euro) and your banks will take a huge loss. We will start over and you will eat the losses.

EU: Huh!....Maybe we can figure out something here?
Last edited by raptor on Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by zero11010 » Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:30 pm

The Zimbabwean dollar is being removed from circulation in favor of a combination of the US dollar and the South African dollar.

The central bank is offering $5 US for every 175 quadrillion (that's with 15 zeros on the end) Zimbabwean dollars.


http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/ ... -trillions

"In Zimbabwe, even the trillionaires are struggling to make ends meet.

But that is about to change as the government begins a phasing out of the massively hyperinflated Zimbabwean dollar in favor of a multi-currency regime involving mainly a mix of U.S. dollars and South African rand that, in any case, has been the de facto norm since 2009.

In a bid to stabilize an off-the-rails economy, starting on Monday Zimbabwe's central bank will offer $5 U.S. for every 175 quadrillion (175,000 trillion) Zimbabwean dollars, according to an email send by the bank's governor, John Mangudya. The move, he wrote, has been "pending and long outstanding."

"We cannot have two legal currency systems. We need therefore to safeguard the integrity of the multiple-currency system or dollarization in Zimbabwe," Mangudya said.

The classic definition of inflation is "too much money chasing too few goods." With hyperinflation, the process gets locked in a death spiral. That's what happened in Zimbabwe when the government of President Robert Mugabe "started a campaign in 2000 of violent seizures of white-owned commercial farms to distribute to black subsistence growers, slashing exports of tobacco and other crops," according to Bloomberg.

The country plunged into a brutal and prolonged recession as its gross domestic product plummeted and inflation hit 500 billion percent.

According to the BBC: "The last bank note printed by Zimbabwe was for 100 billion Zimbabwean dollars, still not enough for a bus ticket."

In a situation reminiscent to what happened in Germany in the early 1920s, the BBC says "Hyper-inflation saw prices in shops change several times a day, severe shortages of basic goods and Zimbabweans taking their money to market in wheelbarrows."

Reuters columnist Edward Hadas adds: "Zimbabwe's mirage-quadrillionaires are witnesses to its monetary disaster. Harare is the new Weimar. Just as Germany created money to pay for reparations after World War One, Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe used newly created cash to spend well beyond the government's means."

The process of "demonetizing" will begin June 15 and be complete by September 30. The Financial Times writes: "Within that window, the notes can be exchanged for US dollars. After that they'll be worthless — which isn't so different from their value now."

The BBC notes that the exchanges is likely to affect only those Zimbabweans with bank accounts, as presumably they are the only ones with enough of the old currency to make such an exchange practical."

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:30 pm

Zimbabwe is a basket case and should be viewed as an example of what not to do and what can go wrong when the wrong people are in charge (since February 1980).

175,000,000,000,000,000 Z$ = $5 USD

This is only a hundred trillion Z$ note so it probably cost more to print than it is worth.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:06 pm

The markets are down today as a result of the "Greek Turmoil" but the down tick is not alarming IMO.

A good article on possible likely scenarios for a Greek default.

http://news.yahoo.com/greeces-debt-dram ... 41798.html


This one IMO is likely but honestly I see EU embarrassment as the worst case.

'GREXIT'

Greece exiting the euro is the one scenario that few want to imagine, as it would not only bring damage to the single currency, but to the European Union project as a whole, just as Brussels faces threats from Putin's Russia over Ukraine and talk of an EU divorce by Britain.

But beyond the crushing embarrassment, it would also risk contagion, with market players on the hunt for the next weakest link in the eurozone.
Unless you are a Greek in Greece this is not likely to be a disaster and if you are a Greek in Greece you have likely already moved as many euros as possible out of Greek banks.

As per this article:

http://news.yahoo.com/greek-banks-see-d ... ector.html
Last edited by raptor on Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:12 pm

raptor wrote:Zimbabwe is a basket case and should be viewed as an example of what not to do and what can go wrong when the wrong people are in charge (since February 1980).

175,000,000,000,000,000 Z$ = $5 USD

This is only a hundred trillion Z$ note so it probably cost more to print than it is worth.

Image
At least it is clearly marked so as to avoid the threat of counterfeits. Since that was three days ago it has probably dropped another 100 trillion or so by now.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:17 pm

Stercutus wrote: At least it is clearly marked so as to avoid the threat of counterfeits. Since that was three days ago it has probably dropped another 100 trillion or so by now.

:clownshoes:
:lol:

I cannot imagine anyone even bother to counterfeit these. Toilet paper is better use of paper than printing this currency at least it depreciates only when used.


On a note that is similar but closer to home.

The US debt has remained $18,112,975,000,000 for the last 90 days.

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDT ... 061100.pdf

The reality of course that the debt has continued to rise but through creative accounting the US Treasury has been able to state that figure on the weekly debt report table IIIC for the last 90 days. The interesting part is no one has called BS on what is clearly a material misstatement. Oh well unfortunately Sarbanes Oxley only applies to the private sector. This of course started on March 15, 2015 (discussed earlier in this thread) when the

http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Doc ... 150313.pdf

Therefore, beginning on March 16, I plan to declare a ‘debt issuance suspension period’ with respect to investment of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and also suspend the daily reinvestment of Treasury securities held by the Government Securities Investment Fund and the Federal Employees’ Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan.”
This bit of fiscal management is accomplished by in effect keeping the debts classified as accounts payable and not moving the debts to the notes payable of the balance sheet because the credit line has been reached. The accounts payable are still debts and they are still owed. They are just not classified properly as debt.

Anyway... the deficit/debt clock is in day 90 and still counting upward unabated despite the creative accounting.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:32 pm

Another article on the Greek bank runs.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j ... athens-imf

The grexit may actually happen. It may not. Time will tell.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by LowKey » Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:34 pm

raptor wrote:Another article on the Greek bank runs.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j ... athens-imf

The grexit may actually happen. It may not. Time will tell.
Anyone care to venture a guess as to how Russia having made cow eyes at Greece (offered $$$)may factor in to the situation given other situations in geopolitics over the last year or so?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Jun 19, 2015 12:37 pm

Greece gets a temporary loan courtesy of the European Central Bank's governing council. Imagine that. Who would have thought that would happen? :wink:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/ ... 9-08-51-42
As a result, the European Central Bank's governing council decided to provide more emergency credit for Greece's banks to help them cope with the situation.

A Greek banking official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the announcement was not made public, confirmed the decision. The official declined to

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Valarius » Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:58 am

Thanks for the updates, Raptor. I still keep coming in here from time to time, and I'm glad this thread exists. Those who get bored the most by history yell the loudest to delete it, apparently. :)

It's almost 11:00 P.M. Pacific time. The latest bailout talks crashed and burned tonight; tomorrow the IMF holds an emergency session. I'm leaning towards Greece reissuing the Drachma myself, just modernizing the coins and bills so they fit all the machines that take Euros. It certainly does look like they'll be doing more business with Russia, and more importantly Russia's economically strong allies like China, which may give them an opening into Asia as a whole.
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Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by wee drop o' bush » Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:04 am

I have family in the Republic of Ireland (Euro €) who also have bank accounts up here in the North (Sterling £), they are seriously questioning whether they should clear out their Euros and transfer the money to their bank accounts here in Northern Ireland.
I'm sure there are a good few people in similar circumstances in the R.O.I. who are worried about the Euro. I'm just wondering if the Euro looks fragile enough whether a bank run of sorts in the R.O.I. could occur?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TacAir » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:46 am

wee drop o' bush wrote:I have family in the Republic of Ireland (Euro €) who also have bank accounts up here in the North (Sterling £), they are seriously questioning whether they should clear out their Euros and transfer the money to their bank accounts here in Northern Ireland.
I'm sure there are a good few people in similar circumstances in the R.O.I. who are worried about the Euro. I'm just wondering if the Euro looks fragile enough whether a bank run of sorts in the R.O.I. could occur?
So, where do you 'park' surplus capital? Swiss Franc?
Many folks want to remain liquid (and avoid the next stock market crash, whenever that might happen) - but with just about *everyone* racing to devalue their currency, as common wisdom seems to indicate in an effort to win in an undeclared trade war - define safe anymore.

I know folks here (Alaska) are getting swarmed in the real estate market. A neighbor just sold his home in a bidding war for 300K. Even after he posted the sold sign, he was approached with higher offers. 20 years ago the house would have sold for 100K, if the owner was lucky.....10 years ago, 135K.

My son sold his place (now just over a year ago) the first weekend it was on the market - and for more than listed. From this limited sample (to me) it seems that folks looking to park capital are running to traditional safe havens - land, property and the like. I *don't* see any corresponding rise in listed price of PM's - which has me scratching my head. I seem to do the a lot anymore.

Maybe Raptor would care to opine on this seeming disconnect....
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:33 pm

TacAir wrote:
wee drop o' bush wrote:I have family in the Republic of Ireland (Euro €) who also have bank accounts up here in the North (Sterling £), they are seriously questioning whether they should clear out their Euros and transfer the money to their bank accounts here in Northern Ireland.
I'm sure there are a good few people in similar circumstances in the R.O.I. who are worried about the Euro. I'm just wondering if the Euro looks fragile enough whether a bank run of sorts in the R.O.I. could occur?
So, where do you 'park' surplus capital? Swiss Franc?
Many folks want to remain liquid (and avoid the next stock market crash, whenever that might happen) - but with just about *everyone* racing to devalue their currency, as common wisdom seems to indicate in an effort to win in an undeclared trade war - define safe anymore.

I know folks here (Alaska) are getting swarmed in the real estate market. A neighbor just sold his home in a bidding war for 300K. Even after he posted the sold sign, he was approached with higher offers. 20 years ago the house would have sold for 100K, if the owner was lucky.....10 years ago, 135K.

My son sold his place (now just over a year ago) the first weekend it was on the market - and for more than listed. From this limited sample (to me) it seems that folks looking to park capital are running to traditional safe havens - land, property and the like. I *don't* see any corresponding rise in listed price of PM's - which has me scratching my head. I seem to do the a lot anymore.

Maybe Raptor would care to opine on this seeming disconnect....
I am out in bad lands and have limited internet connectivity.

This subject is complex but I will give you my opiion.

Price of gold fall vs. real estate rise: Several things here.

You can buy real estate with generally only 25% down and finance it at a historically low rate for 30 years, Gold needs cash.

Foreign buyers are buying US real estate at a record pace as a safe haven.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102777978

The Fed is going to raise rates (they have to since they cannot lower them) at some point. This will likely raise long term rates for real estate. So after 6 years of a dismal economy coupled with an uptick in inflation people are starting to buy homes again, but builders are not building as many homes. So existing homes are in greater demand.

Gold, well as I have said many times gold does not pay interest or dividends. There are storage fees for it. In the last downturn in 2008 the price of gold was hammered. The only safe haven in 2008 was cash in your bank account (so long as you kept the balance under the FDIC limit).


Now as to a safe haven. IMO the Euro will not collapse due to a Grexit. That said a diversification into different currencies other than the Euro. The Swiss franc is a strong and stable currency. The USD and UK Pound is likewise stable at present. However, I would point out that holding cash in any of these currencies is not likely to even equal the rate of inflation thus holding cash in any currency is not likely to be lucrative. I would also point out that the euro has already lost value to the USD and substantial value to Swiss franc. This any devalue protection may already be lost.

I do not give investment advice and the following is simply opinion. The Euros I am holding are in the form of EU public company stock companies like Bayer, Deutsche Telekom, Vodaphone and Royal Dutch Shell. Note these companies are also available on US exchanges or you can buy them on European exchanges with Euros.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:41 am

You can buy real estate with generally only 25% down and finance it at a historically low rate for 30 years, Gold needs cash.
Nah, I can buy gold up to my credit limit on my 0% interest credit card. Technically I can go 0% forever on it too if I keep swapping cards (so long as interest rates don't jump a whole lot). This is not really investing though.
IMO the Euro will not collapse due to a Grexit.
Cut loose that albatross and it might even strengthen.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by zero11010 » Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:08 pm

Some thoughts on property.
A friend bought a condo in 2014 in San Francisco. In less than a year the value has risen over $100,000. I don't recall the exact cost of the 1 bedroom condo when he got it. I want to say it was roughly $500,000 (I think 400k and change). That places his piece of property at a 25% profit margin for the year.

My girlfriend and I bought a home 2 years ago (just outside San Francisco). The value of it has risen just over $100,000 in that time.

An easy argument can be made that the value of the property may fall. So can the value of anything else (like gold). Storing $500k in gold sounds like it would pose some interesting questions in security. Plus, you buy a house, and you have a house. It's nice not being homeless. If you buy gold you have a big heavy piece of metal.

There's inherent value in owning a home and property (a vacant 3,200 sqft lot in San Francisco just sold for $1,000,000). Even if the market crumbles again and values drop 50% people still want property, and people still need places to live. Gold is inherently nearly worthless (it has some use as a highly conductive and corrosion resistant metal), and pretty.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by B&Q » Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:23 am

It looks like tomorrow will be the crunch day.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33303304
The European Central Bank's governing council is expected to turn off Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Greek banks at its meeting later today, according to well-placed sources.

So unless Greek savers miraculously decide to cease withdrawing cash from their accounts, Greek banks would find themselves in serious straits as soon as Monday - because the banks have become dependent on ELA, approved by the ECB but supplied by the Bank of Greece, to provide the cash to depositors who want their money back.

"We think the Greek government will have no choice but to announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending the introduction of capital controls," said a source.
ETA: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33305019
Greek banks will be closed on Monday, the head of the Piraeus Bank has said after an emergency meeting of the country's Financial Stability Council.

The Greek cabinet is due to meet later, with an announcement to follow.

Earlier, the European Central Bank said it was not increasing emergency funding to Greek banks.

Banks are expected to shut while capital controls are put in place. That in turn could push Greece towards leaving the eurozone.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jun 28, 2015 4:10 pm

Probably wont see the 50 billion to 1 inflation post WWII but I would expect to see 100 to 1 as a starting point. Those guys that all retired at 50- will still get a monthly retirement check. It should be just enough to get them a cup of coffee.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:35 pm

OK looks like the Greek banks will be shut down until the referendum and depending upon the results of said referendum likely longer.

The Greek .gov has restricted cash withdrawals to 60 euros per day. I assume that means limit applies to checks to pay bills also but I am not certain. What is certain is that the Greek economy and Greek people are in for some bad days ahead. I am sure this will rile the markets tomorrow and in the coming week.
Fasten your seat belts the ride is about to get bumpy.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j ... shook-euro
On Monday morning Greeks will find their savings blocked and their banks closed for a week following a fateful weekend that has shaken Europe’s single currency.

The Greek government decided on Sunday night it had no option but to close the nation’s banks the following day after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the stakes by freezing the liquidity lifeline that has kept them afloat during a six-month run on deposits.

The Athens Stock Exchange will not reopen on Monday either. The dramatic move, after 48 hours of sensational developments in Greece’s long-running battles with creditors, was sparked by the country’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras’s Friday night call for a referendum on its creditors’ demands. That prompted finance ministers of the eurozone to effectively put an end to his country’s five-year bailout by the International Monetary Fund, the ECB and the European commission.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/world ... erity.html
Beside the lines at A.T.M.s, people were also lining up at gas stations and in grocery stories. In the small town of Spata, outside Athens, residents had stripped grocery shelves bare by Saturday night. The local Shell station had run out of regular unleaded and had only premium gasoline to sell. “Doom,” the gas attendant responded, when asked to describe the mood.

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NamelessStain
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by NamelessStain » Mon Jun 29, 2015 6:25 am

Image

I've already seen articles talking about how this will impact the global economy. It might but I don't see it being that much of an impact. If other European nations (aka Germany, France, UK) were in this condition it would send huge shock waves along the global economy.
jnathan wrote:Since we lost some posts due to some database work I'll just put this here for posterity.
Q wrote:Buckle up

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Stercutus
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon Jun 29, 2015 6:47 am

If Germany's economy was in that bad a shape we would all be screwed.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

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