Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

[raptor]

For wonks who follow debt stats for the US this is not news. However for those who do not this is interesting.

The current US legal debt limit of $18,113,000,080,959.35. (yes that is not a decimal slip it really is 18 trillion one hundred thirteen billion 80 thousand nine hundred fifty nine dollars AND thirty five cents [$0.35] per table III C page 2. No... I have no idea why the $0.35 is in there. ).

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDT ... 040300.pdf

Anyway the Fed as of the above reported total debt of $18,112,975,000. This debt level is $25,080,959.35 less than the debt ceiling. It hit that number as of the March 13, 2015 report.

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDT ... 031300.pdf

So the Fed has not increased the US debt in over 21 days. Which if you think about it does not make a lot of sense since spending has not stopped. So how does this work?

Simple... in a bit of balance sheet management, the US Secretary of the Treasury declared: "beginning on March 16,...a "debt issuance suspension period"with respect to investments of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and also suspend the daily reinvestment of Treasury securities held by the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees' Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan".

Put simply he did not fund current payments to pension and disability plans and suspended the automatic reinvestment of selected securities held by the other thrift plans. These are still debts and still due but this moves those obligations from the debt section of the balance sheet back to in effect A/P and the current liability section of the balance sheet. It likewise moves the un-invested funds back to cash and reduces current income to set of funds.

What does this mean? Apparently nothing because everyone expected the US government not to blow through the debt ceiling. The simple math was there. The markets are not surprised. No one is surprised, hence no fall out thus far.

A mainstream news article on the subject...from March 2015
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/201 ... -next-week


I guess the lesson here is if you have low expectations it is difficult to be disappointed.

[Stercutus]

I can cover the $.35. Where do I send my check to reduce the National Debt? They should probably spend about $20 processing that check.

Last I checked the Federal Government was underfunding retirement accounts by $650,000,000,000 what is a few billion more anyway?

[raptor]

For wonks who follow debt stats for the US this is not news. However for those who do not this is interesting.

The current US legal debt limit of $18,113,000,080,959.35. (yes that is not a decimal slip it really is 18 trillion one hundred thirteen billion 80 thousand nine hundred fifty nine dollars AND thirty five cents [$0.35] per table III C page 2. No... I have no idea why the $0.35 is in there. ).

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDT ... 040300.pdf

Anyway the Fed as of the above reported total debt of $18,112,975,000. This debt level is $25,080,959.35 less than the debt ceiling. It hit that number as of the March 13, 2015 report.

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDT ... 031300.pdf

So the Fed has not increased the US debt in over 21 days. Which if you think about it does not make a lot of sense since spending has not stopped. So how does this work?

Simple... in a bit of balance sheet management, the US Secretary of the Treasury declared: "beginning on March 16,...a "debt issuance suspension period"with respect to investments of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and also suspend the daily reinvestment of Treasury securities held by the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees' Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan".

Put simply he did not fund current payments to pension and disability plans and suspended the automatic reinvestment of selected securities held by the other thrift plans. These are still debts and still due but this moves those obligations from the debt section of the balance sheet back to in effect A/P and the current liability section of the balance sheet. It likewise moves the un-invested funds back to cash and reduces current income to set of funds.

What does this mean? Apparently nothing because everyone expected the US government not to blow through the debt ceiling. The simple math was there. The markets are not surprised. No one is surprised, hence no fall out thus far.

A mainstream news article on the subject...from March 2015
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/201 ... -next-week


I guess the lesson here is if you have low expectations it is difficult to be disappointed.

The daily Treasury report as of April 13 shows no change in the current debt. So for 30 days, no official change. This despite balance sheet "management" that would be addressed by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act for other players.

https://www.fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDT ... 041300.pdf

Again not the end of the world but interesting nevertheless...at least to the financial professionals.

[williaty]

So does anyone know what the final answer was with Greece needing money from the EU to pay the IMF?

[NamelessStain]

This one is a bit puzzling to me:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/ ... 8G20150414

[duodecima]

This one is a bit puzzling to me:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/ ... 8G20150414

What seems puzzling? It looks like a business continuity plan to me, which makes some sense in the face of things like Sandy and the blackouts alone, never mind they're saying they think they face increased threats of a cyber attack. Markets and economy take enough of a hit when disasters happen, it seems prudent for, essentially, national security, not to have that amplified by disability on the part of monetary institutions.

What am I missing?

[NamelessStain]

Just the timing seems weird.

[zero11010]

Why is this topic still in the section for disasters in current events?

I mean, I can forgive the fear mongering, ridiculous title, at hundreds of pages it's grown beyond the title that no longer really does it justice.

I don't understand how this qualifies as a disaster in current events when other topics are being removed for not being enough of a disaster. This is a conversation about people who are unhappy with the countries current economic situation. There is no disaster, so why is it still here and active?

[raptor]

Why is this topic still in the section for disasters in current events?

This question came up in January 2015.

The thread is coming up on five years old now. The OP hasn't posted in almost two. The "DICE" described as coming up "soon" seems to be taking it's time to get here. The thread itself regularly goes off-topic, and rambles on almost like a chat thread,.

That is true and therein is a lesson and IMO the reason this thread is useful.

It provides a reminder that people have been predicting the collapse of the financial system now for many years certainly long before this thread was posted. So far it has continued to function. I remember reading Ruff House and his predictions of a collapse in the 80's. He was wrong as were many others.

The function of this thread is to remind us all of this fact.

[zero11010]

So, threads about California running out of water. Something that impacts 10% of the country's population. That's not a disaster in the making or something for people to be aware of (as threads about it have been removed from this section). For the first time in history water is being limited by the governor (a mandate accompanied by fines and resource price increases, rather than previous "please try to reduce" requests). Rivers are being found sucked dry by people stealing water. These are issues that are growing in number and severity. The actions taken by California are likely going to be a foundation for how states will deal with similar issues in the future (either mimicking, or avoiding what California does now). It's being shown that what is impacting California now is likely to start impacting other states in the southwest in the near future. This is a real issue impacting 1 in 10 people in the US already, and as this issue continues we are likely to see it impacting more and more facets of life not just in California, but elsewhere.

The notion that money is finite and how the government is having issues wrangling the world's largest economy ... worthy of being considered a disaster? Ok, man. I don't see a "disaster" though. Our economy is an important topic, but we are not looking at a disaster, just that important topic. I didn't think "disasters in current events" was the spot for big decades long news stories that are not in a disastrous state. I'll adjust my definition of what these words mean on this forum.


My issue isn't just that this one other specific issue is growing in severity and negatively impacts a large percentage of the population. My issue is about how "disaster in current events" is being defined. Specifically in how we define the word disaster, and the word current.

[Stercutus]

Gee, you should do that in a different thread then.

[zero11010]

Do what? I called into question the validity of this post. It isn't a new thing. It looks like someone does it every few weeks.

What is it that you think I should do in another thread?

If you're referring to the issue in California, that has been done in other threads. And, those threads, about a growing large scale issue have already been moved out of "disasters in current events" as I outlined above. I'm not sure why your "gee, go do that elsewhere." comment got a thumbs up from Raptor, but I guess he's entitled to like whatever he wishes. In this case, when you refer to "that" it's confusing because I did speak about a couple of different things.

[raptor]

In this case, when you refer to "that" it's confusing because I did speak about a couple of different things.

Please check your PMs.

The previous article that was moved, referenced an article that was later refuted by the author of the study referenced by the article.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california ... story.html

[zero11010]

In this case, when you refer to "that" it's confusing because I did speak about a couple of different things.

Please check your PMs.

The previous article that was moved, referenced an article that was later refuted by the author of the study referenced by the article.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california ... story.html

PM replied to.

And nothing about "global debt time bomb explodes soon" originally posted 5 years ago was refuted after the original fear mongering title and post? Obviously, there is no global debt time bomb exploding soon or otherwise based solely on current events at this time.

As I said repeatedly, there is absolutely a place for serious conversation about local, statewide, national, and worldwide financial issues. Is any of it a "disaster in current events"? Nothing going on in this country would fit that bill. Certainly nothing to live up to the hyperbole of the original topic title.


The California issue, as I have also said repeatedly, is a separate issue. It was an example of, what I think has great potential for disastrous results in the country. I used it as an example of something that for unknown reasons was removed as something not considered disastrous enough for the disasters in current events section, which shows the dichotomy of the situation as this debt time bomb is fine and dandy.

[raptor]

PM replied to.

Thank you!

[NamelessStain]

Like putting a finger in the dike
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... t-IMF.html

[Thorne]

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_ar ... 015_549455
As the country’s finances reach a critical point, tax authorities have started seizing the deposits of small debtors, Kathimerini understands. The bank account of the man in question was frozen and then reopened once it was established that he had paid his dues. The initiative comes as efforts to crack down on rich Greeks with tax debts make slow progress.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_ar ... 015_549452

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met regional governors and mayors over the weekend in a bid to overcome their objections to a decision by the government forcing local authorities to hand over their cash reserves to tackle a looming cash crunch. Speaking after talks with Tsipras, Costas Agorastos, the regional governor of Thessaly and head of the country’s union of regional governors, indicated that a compromise had been reached. But many local authority leaders stood their ground. The mayor of Aristoteli in Halkidiki, northern Greece, resigned late on Friday, citing personal reasons.

Universities also object to the decree and rectors met on the weekend to discuss their response. Technical college directors are to meet Monday.

Getting really bad in Greece... Their next payment to the IMF is Friday, they only just got the last one in mostly thanks to an advance from the pipeline deal with Russia.

[Valarius]

And nothing about "global debt time bomb explodes soon" originally posted 5 years ago was refuted after the original fear mongering title and post? Obviously, there is no global debt time bomb exploding soon or otherwise based solely on current events at this time.

Actually, I want to jump in here. Nepal needs 2 billion to recover. Wealthier countries are balking at picking up the cost. Baltimore, like other cities affected by unrest, will need money to recover. A lot of people are balking at paying that cost. Colorado has legalized marijuana, but it actually has a revenue crisis because major banks won't take drug money unless the federal government promises not to prosecute. The feds are balking at that decision. California needs money to pay for desalination and water conservation projects, but it has a money crisis. A lot of private colleges just closed down today because the U.S. Department of Education fined them for breaking federal rules, so a lot more students are added to the student loan debt crisis while literally trying to transfer somewhere else by next semester or end up losing their federal aid, which adds more to the GENERAL debt crisis the U.S. is in.

Time bombs are exploding all over the place. This thread was relevant five years ago, and it sure as hell is still relevant now.

[Valarius]

And by the way, before anyone starts thinking Germany is sitting pretty with their own money, the German government told Heckler and Koch that they weren't interested in any more G36 rifles from that company.

Backstory: Heckler and Koch is a gun company, and they're the sole supplier of the G36 rifle for the entire German Army. The G36 is a polymer assault rifle, like how a Glock is a polymer pistol. Trouble is that HK apparently used cheap plastic instead of mil-spec plastic to mass produce the guns, and they melt when you fire them a lot. Like in combat. Combine with the Middle Eastern heat, and the guns are becoming inaccurate as hell.

This matters a lot, because HK apparently only offers one suitable replacement for the G36, and that is the very expensive HK416A5 rifle. It's basically an M-4 rifle made to German specifications, and it retails for about $1200 to $1600. The G36, because it's made of plastic, retails for about $600 to $800. That's double the price for a reliable weapon for troops that are currently helping the Kurds fight ISIS right now.

So, yeah. The German government has a military spending crisis of its own going on right now, and both HK and the gov are slinging insults at each other over this.

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2015 ... -confirms/

[NamelessStain]

Interesting....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... story.html

[zero11010]

And nothing about "global debt time bomb explodes soon" originally posted 5 years ago was refuted after the original fear mongering title and post? Obviously, there is no global debt time bomb exploding soon or otherwise based solely on current events at this time.

Actually, I want to jump in here. Nepal needs 2 billion to recover. Wealthier countries are balking at picking up the cost. Baltimore, like other cities affected by unrest, will need money to recover. A lot of people are balking at paying that cost. Colorado has legalized marijuana, but it actually has a revenue crisis because major banks won't take drug money unless the federal government promises not to prosecute. The feds are balking at that decision. California needs money to pay for desalination and water conservation projects, but it has a money crisis. A lot of private colleges just closed down today because the U.S. Department of Education fined them for breaking federal rules, so a lot more students are added to the student loan debt crisis while literally trying to transfer somewhere else by next semester or end up losing their federal aid, which adds more to the GENERAL debt crisis the U.S. is in.

Time bombs are exploding all over the place. This thread was relevant five years ago, and it sure as hell is still relevant now.

These are all valid concerns. These are all valid financial issues. Zero of these are a "global debt disaster". That makes every single one of them off topic.

Maybe it's just an issue of semantics. But, I think for anything to be valid as per the topic, and as per the board section that thing must be A) current disaster (not future, though, something caught early would count, but the inclusion of the hyperbolic "soon" denotes an immediate time frame that cannot be ignored), B) something impacting the whole planet and specifically related to debt, C) something that will be catastrophic for the entire planet (as per the hyperbolic "explode" wording). The wording leaves this thread looking like spam mail for whackos that I avoid. Stuff that targets the uninformed elderly population.

When the US financial market crashed I think that was absolutely genuine concern for the global economy. However, we pulled out. That issue has "ended." Yes, the financial industry is still doing the same stuff. Yes, there is likely to be another issue in the future, but the immediacy of the issue is over and it will take another build up and meltdown before we see another substantial issue and there is plenty of time for things to be turned around before another meltdown has had enough time to evolve. We have "recovered" from that with stopgap measures. The word "soon" makes this topic irrelevant.

Baltimore ... is not a concern specifically for anything related to global debt. It just isn't. It's a huge issue for Baltimore. It's a large issue for Maryland. It's a minor inconvenience to the US. It's nothing for the "global economy." Baltimore should not be a topic for "global debt."

Colorado is fine. They've legalized a substance that has fewer negative effects than cigarettes and/or alcohol. Legalization of the substance is going to happen on a larger scale (I'm not a fan of the substance personally, and am not going to use it even if legal just like I don't use tobacco products, in my state medicinal licenses are handed out to anyone who wants one, basically). The money Colorado gained from weed is a small, small percentage of their economy, and the volatile oil prices genuinely have more of an impact on the state. The state has an unemployment rate of about 4% which is awesome. Business Insider rated Colorado as the number 3 state economy in the nation about a month ago. I have no idea why you're concerned about Colorado, or why you would specifically talk about the 50 million in revenue the state has gained from marijuana compared to the 18 BILLION they get from all sources (figure from 2012, and it's likely higher now).

California's desalination plants are a joke. It's too expensive to move forward with desalination on a major scale. The largest desalination plant in the whole country will be opening in the fall. It will provide San Diego county with 7% of that county's water demands. I won't bore you with details about the plant and the potential environmental issues. However, the cost of desalination is projected to increase water bills by about 25% per month to cover that 7% of water. For scale San Diego county represents about 10% of the state, or about 1% of the country in population (there are more people in San Diego county than total people in 19 different US states including your home state of Nevada). Desalination isn't something that people are going to move forward with on a large scale in the immediate future. Also, the cost of that desalination plant is nothing compared to Californa's budget (our state is a 2.2 trillion dollar economy, the largest in the country, and one of the top 10 largest economies in the world if it were considered a country - no, one water plant isn't a big deal for us or our state budget or debt). The drought as a whole is a much larger concern, but that isn't the real issue you raised.

No, there isn't a substantial issue with the shit for one school with 28 campuses that closed down (due to cash shortages and fraud allegations). It was a terrible for profit school that had a predatory model that was hurting students more than it was helping them (like most for profit schools). The debt of 16,000 students attending those 28 campuses will NOT impact the GLOBAL economy as per the real topic here. It also will not substantially impact the country as a whole. The issue the students are dealing with is that they can either call it quits and void paying back the loans they owe and get zero credit for any classes they've passed. Or, those students can see what percentage of their credits will be accepted by other schools (it will likely be a small percentage as these schools do not standardize information so there's no way to know that a student one semester from completing school A knows enough information to take similar classes in school B). All of that is moot because we're talking about 16,000 students. That's bullshit. It's nothing compared to the number of students in the country and it's NOTHING that is going to impact the global economy.


I accept Raptor's explanation (as I understood it) that this thread is basically a joke and a way for people to talk about how ridiculous the notion of most "disasters" are.

[Stercutus]

Interesting....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... story.html

As I noted a few years back the constant impetus to provide for "growth" seems a doomed strategy to me. There actually needs to be a reason for the economy to grow, not just because we pump more money into it.

I do think his read on negative rates is wrong. Rates are negative in certain EU countries because they are deemed more safe and stable. That is a strategy.

[Thorne]

However, we pulled out. That issue has "ended." Yes, the financial industry is still doing the same stuff. Yes, there is likely to be another issue in the future, but the immediacy of the issue is over and it will take another build up and meltdown before we see another substantial issue and there is plenty of time for things to be turned around before another meltdown has had enough time to evolve. We have "recovered" from that with stopgap measures. The word "soon" makes this topic irrelevant.

I accept Raptor's explanation (as I understood it) that this thread is basically a joke and a way for people to talk about how ridiculous the notion of most "disasters" are.

mmmmm.... Kool Aid...

BOA released the GDP numbers today... Their projection was 2.2% growth for the US econ which is in recession territory if it persists over several quarters. The actual number was 0.2% which is inline with what Atlanta has been predicting. The UK did better posting a 0.3% rise.



https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nation ... elease.htm

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.cfm

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross ... -2015.html

Greece is on the verge and worst case scenario could precipitate defaults in Italy Spain and Ireland which would pretty much mean the end of the Euro/ECB. Best case it's a decade to recover from all the red ink involved

Global governments and big corporations are 'bailing out and buying back' in massive quantities which has the effect of inflating their stock values and the index's. It works great till they run out of cash. Twitter posted a 20% loss yesterday after failing to hit their targets and announcing no buybacks of their stock.

Something like 60% of US families are living cheque to cheque and can't afford to properly feed their kids before school. Home ownership rates are lower than they've been in decades.

The majority of Global government bonds are yielding less than 1% and several of them are negative and the big kicker... When a large Swiss pension fund tried to pull it's money out to avoid the loss on those negative rates they were told No

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescopp ... wer-bound/
The Swiss National Bank confirms that hoarding cash to circumvent negative interest rates is not welcome. “The National Bank has been recommending that banks with cash demands (…) act restrictively.

There will always be people willing to instill fear in order to sell you something but there are also basic fundamentals that must be followed or bad things happen. Best case this is the 7 year cyclical drop and in ~18-24 months we're ok and growing again. Worst case is violent revolution and decades/centuries of rebuilding.

The point of this thread is to track the slow motion disaster that has been global finance since the thread was created and to separate the signal from the noise so ZS'rs could be aware and prepared... Maybe CPP rather than DICE but still a huge asset to the board, hence why it's still here.

"A good rule of thumb for many things in life holds that things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then happen faster than you thought they could." - Larry Summers

[zero11010]

mmmmm.... Kool Aid...

Wha'chu got against Kool Aid?

BOA released the GDP numbers today...

Our economy still isn't in a great place. We were in a great place about 14 years ago. We had some issues with trying to run two wars at the same time without asking anyone to pay for it (you know ... and some other stuff).

I did say we had "recovered" from the recent collapse. I think I was pretty clear about our position not being peachy-keen, and the quotes were to denote that it was a "recovery" rather than a recovery. But, are we in the middle of a global collapse due to debt? Nope. We're not. So, I stand by my points. The wording in the thread is hyperbolic fear mongering.

Greece is on the verge and worst case scenario could precipitate defaults in Italy Spain and Ireland which would pretty much mean the end of the Euro/ECB. Best case it's a decade to recover from all the red ink involved

I think your best case estimate is more than a little morbid. We may not have to wait very long to find out what happens if Greece defaults. It won't be pretty, but it isn't going to collapse the world's economy.

I think the Greek financial issues absolutely deserve to have their own topic within Disasters in Current Events. Absolutely. 100%.

I don't think that it's going to collapse the world's economy, and I can't find anything from a reputable source that gives me the impression that it will.

Global governments and big corporations are 'bailing out and buying back' in massive quantities which has the effect of inflating their stock values and the index's. It works great till they run out of cash. Twitter posted a 20% loss yesterday after failing to hit their targets and announcing no buybacks of their stock.

This isn't happening on the same scale as what happened with the dotcom bust. That was a big deal. That already happened. That didn't collapse the world's economy. Why do we think it will be different, and much much worse, this time? I'm not saying it's good news. I'm saying that I don't think these specific issues pose a threat to the whole world's economy.

Something like 60% of US families are living cheque to cheque and can't afford to properly feed their kids before school. Home ownership rates are lower than they've been in decades.

It seems very self centered to be so focused on small scale issues with the US economy. We're talking about the world's economy, and specifically, it "exploding soon." What about these figures (which are a little off) do you think is going to impact the WHOLE WORLD ... ANY MOMENT NOW?

Yes, we have huge problems with income inequality. The economic information is well understood and agreed upon by experts. Income inequality is bad for the economy of that nation. There are examples of this all throughout history, including our own nation's history.

Your figures were really close, by the way. I think it was just an issue of wording. 65% of kids are getting some kind of government assistance (US Census info). But, those represent 49% of families (US Census info).

The specific breakdown of this really matters more than the raw number. If 65% of kids are getting some kind of help that can be $30 annually, or thousands of dollars annually. I don't know the details off the top of my head, and I'm not going to take the time to research them right now. I do know the number includes ~35 million kids in the National School Lunch Program which is basically reduced cost lunches for kids, and I'm pretty ok with 100% of kids being offered that.

I think that the current issues with the US' income inequality are going to lead to larger and larger issues for us as a country if we cannot curb what is rising. I don't see it "exploding soon" and I'm curious how anyone would see it boiling over and blowing up, then further, impacting the whole world's economy.

Personally, I see a much larger issue with the "welfare" being given to profitable companies, particularly those who are keeping profit margins high by paying their workforce so little. They clearly have the money to pay their employees more. But, I don't see that issue in the US causing a global crisis in the immediate future, either.

There will always be people willing to instill fear in order to sell you something but there are also basic fundamentals that must be followed or bad things happen. Best case this is the 7 year cyclical drop and in ~18-24 months we're ok and growing again. Worst case is violent revolution and decades/centuries of rebuilding.

The point of this thread is to track the slow motion disaster that has been global finance since the thread was created and to separate the signal from the noise so ZS'rs could be aware and prepared... Maybe CPP rather than DICE but still a huge asset to the board, hence why it's still here.

I really feel like I'm beating a dead horse. The topic is "global debt explodes soon" if the thing we want to talk about doesn't fall under that category, it should go somewhere else, yeah? I mean, staying topical is rule number 4 on the boards. I'd love to talk about the new Daredevil series in this thread. It doesn't exactly relate to the topic either. So, can this be the Daredevil thread, too? I mean, if Daredevil were to bomb it may negatively impact Netflix's ability to release other series and their deals with Marvel. That's financial in nature which seems to be about the only criteria to be topical.

Want a topic about financial woes around the world? Start one!
Want a topic about income disparity? Start one!
Want a topic about the Greek economy? Start one!

I'm very much willing to not participate in this thread (which is mostly breaking rule number 4 on the board). I'm not a moderator. It isn't my business if this thread isn't on topic. Valarius brought me back into the conversation with some really small potatoes economic worries, or I'd be out of the conversation and letting you guys worry about whatever it is you'd like to worry about.