Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon May 28, 2012 8:58 am

The reason the banks are getting beaten is because the Spanish bank bailout fund is nearly empty.

Italy is the long pole in the tent here. The effects of the quake on the economy are still uncertain and Italian politics are worse than American if possible. Italy has such a large economy that the effects on the world economy will be quite pronounced.

Greece is currently on a "media strike" where the media is on strike all day. If only we could be so lucky in the US. The election next month should provide a picture for whether they will stay or go. The reason everyone is looking at Greece is because if they leave, anyone could leave.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Mon May 28, 2012 9:28 am

Krustofski wrote:Yes, this. The main barrier would be language. Low-qualification wage slaves can make do with "hello/bye/yes/no/yessir/I don't understand/where's the toilet/one beer please", educated people who want to use their training in a decent job, not so much.
As millions in Latin America have discovered, a low wage slave job in the US pays a giant amount compared to being an unemployed educated person back home. Men come to work here and send money home for their families. The men are in general very hard working, and if you get to know them, sometimes even well educated despite a job as a lawn boy. You may be correct about Europe, but this was not the case in the Americas.
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Greece-based Retailers Preparing for Civil Unrest

Post by Pilsung » Mon May 28, 2012 9:40 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-ret ... cks-plunge" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

While America may be experiencing the occasional zombie apocalypse breakout, probably due to the absence of easily available edible iPads, Greek retailers are preparing for the retail version. "British electrical retailer Dixons has spent the last few weeks stockpiling security shutters to protect its nearly 100 stores across Greece in case of riot. The planning, says Dixons chief Sebastian James, may look alarmist but it's good to be prepared." Why Dixons? "Europe's No 2 electrical retailer Dixons owns Greece's market leading but loss-making Kotsovolos chain, which has a 25-percent market share selling iPads and laptops as well as washing machines, televisions and air conditioning units." There we go: Bill Dudley's edible iPads. The question is what happens when this easily digestable piece of plastic is thoroughly looted after local rioters dispense with the "shutters" supposedly protecting their wares. What will be on the menu next? Sadly not booze: "Diageo, the world's biggest spirits group and the name behind Johnnie Walker whisky and Smirnoff vodka, has reacted by slashing its marketing spend in Greece, reducing stock levels and pulling cash quickly out of the country after it saw its Greek sales halve in the last three years to less than 100 million pounds." So: no food, no booze, no cheap 99 cent iPad aps: this is the way the world's most miserable monetary experiment ends.

Who else is preparing for a peak in rioting, and how?

Company bosses around Europe agree. As the financial crisis in Greece worsens, companies are getting ready for everything from social unrest to a complete meltdown of the financial system.

Those preparations include sweeping cash out of Greece every night, cutting debts, weeding out badly paying customers and readying for a switch to a new Greek drachma if the country is forced to abandon the euro.

"Most companies are getting ready and preparing for a Greek exit and have looked at cash, treasury and currency issues," said Roger Bayly, a partner at advisory and accountancy firm KPMG.

Chief Executive James says the company has contingency plans to shutter up its 69 wholly owned and 29 franchised Greek stores and close them in the short term to protect against any threat of civil unrest and prepare for a switch to a new drachma.

Greece accounts for just over 3 percent of Dixon's annual sales of around 8.2 billion pounds. The company competes with Europe's No 1 electrical chain Metro and with a number of local players which James says may struggled to survive in a crisis.

"We know it would put paid to quite a lot of our competitors and give us an opportunity to get more of a market share. So we are ready and we would be very interested to see how it would turn out," said James.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Mon May 28, 2012 9:48 am

As millions in Latin America have discovered...

Everything South of Texas is very different than Europe. Things are already very bad there for a large percentage of the population for a very long time. The US provides a really great opportunity for poor people relatively speaking.

If the difference between Greece and Germany comes down to living in mud hut with no plumbing and making $5/ day vs. picking up trash on the side of the autobahn for $50 a day and squatting in a walk up tenement than yeah there will be a lot of cross border traffic. Unless of course Greece pulls out of the EU first, then they won't be able to.
The main barrier would be language.
The majority of Europeans speak more than one language. 56% can speak a second language well enough to hold a conversation. 28% speak two other languages well enough to hold a conversation.

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/arch ... 243_en.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon May 28, 2012 10:00 am

Blacksmith wrote: The majority of Europeans speak more than one language. 56% can speak a second language well enough to hold a conversation. 28% speak two other languages well enough to hold a conversation.

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/arch ... 243_en.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The operative word and problem IMO is the word "speak". Communication requires more listening than speaking. It is this lack of listening that is the main barrier to effective communication. This listening problem is common even when the language,history and culture is the same.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Mon May 28, 2012 5:15 pm

interesting info on practical steps companies are taking on the expectation of Greece leaving the Euro, and that causing widespread civil unrest

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47588146" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
British electrical retailer Dixons has spent the last few weeks stockpiling security shutters to protect its nearly 100 stores across Greece in case of riot.

The planning, says Dixons chief Sebastian James, may look alarmist but it's good to be prepared.

Company bosses around Europe agree.

As the financial crisis in Greece worsens, companies are getting ready for everything from social unrest to a complete meltdown of the financial system.

Those preparations include sweeping cash out of Greece every night, cutting debts, weeding out badly paying customers and readying for a switch to a new Greek drachma if the country is forced to abandon the euro.
much more at the link
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Spain runs out of money to feed the zombies

Post by Pilsung » Tue May 29, 2012 7:08 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-run ... ed-zombies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

One of the problems with the Hispanic Pandora's box unleashed by a now insolvent Bankia, which as we noted some time ago, is merely the Canary in the Coalmine, is that once the case study "example" of rewarding terminal failure is in the open, everyone else who happens to be insolvent also wants to give it a try. And in the case of Spain it quite literally may be "everyone else." But before we get there, we just get a rude awakening from The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard that just as the bailout party is getting started, Spain is officially out of bailout money: "where is the €23.5 billion for the Bankia rescue going to come from? The state's Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring (FROB) is down to €5.3 billion."

From here on out, the alternatives have been discussed to death and are clear as day: either the ECB, and the global central bank syndicate, inflates away the debt, which can only happen if Germany gives the ECB a carte blanche to print up the the $3-5 trillion required to backstop the European financial system, or we proceed straight to an instance of "Odius debt"/debt moratorium/write down, which however with trillions in daisy-chained, rehypothecated, partly submerged within the broker-dealer mediated shadow banking system, liabilities permeating throughout the global financial system, the outcome would be a tremor that shakes the very foundations of the financial system, in the process also impairing the $1 quadrillion OTC derivative credit money pyramid. In other words: nobody wants to, pardon, nobody dares to do anything, and the best Europe, and by implication the world, can hope for is to survive day to day, without launching the terminal financial D-Day. Pritchard's summary of next steps is expected: "The result of Europe's policy paralysis is more likely to be a disorderly break-up as Spain – and others – act desperately in their own national interest. Se salve quien pueda." Only it is not only Europe. It is the entire world. But it will start in Europe. And specifically Spain, which unlike Greece is too big to be swept under the rug. It is also a place where the zombies are now congregating.

In an indication of just how surreal the modern financial world has become, none other than Bloomberg has just come out with an article titled "Spain Delays and Prays That Zombies Repay Debt." We can only surmise there was some rhetorical humor in this headline, because as the past weekend demonstrated, the best zombies are capable of, especially those high on Zombie Dust, or its functional equivalent in the modern financial system: monetary methadone, as first penned here in March 2009, is to bite someone else's face off with tragic consequences for all involved. What Bloomberg is certainly not joking about is that the financial zombies in Spain are now everywhere.

Spain is trying to clean up its banks, requiring lenders to set aside more for possible losses on loans deemed performing to developers like Metrovacesa SA (MVC), which hasn’t completed a project in more than a year and has none under way. While that represents about 30 billion euros ($38 billion) of increased provisions, it’s not enough because many of the loans said to be performing aren’t, said Mikel Echavarren, chairman of Irea, a Madrid-based finance company specializing in real estate.

“Spain has engaged in a policy of delay and pray,” Echavarren said in an interview. “The problem hasn’t been quantified by anyone because there is huge pressure not to tell the truth.”

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Tue May 29, 2012 8:09 am

The result of Europe's policy paralysis is more likely to be a disorderly break-up as Spain – and others – act desperately in their own national interest. Se salve quien pueda.
That is the feeling I get as I have been posting. However no one knows for sure what the future holds.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Tue May 29, 2012 6:42 pm

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7730ca10 ... z1w6hWwOdm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
ECB rejects Madrid plan to boost Bankia

A Spanish plan to recapitalise Bankia, the troubled lender, by indirectly tapping the European Central Bank for cash, was bluntly rejected as unacceptable by the ECB, European officials said.
News of the rejection came as Spain faces elevated borrowing costs in the bond markets, tries to persuade investors it can contain problems in a banking sector weighed down by €180bn of bad property loans and, on Tuesday, saw its central bank governor stand down early.
Madrid had floated the unorthodox idea over the weekend of recapitalising Bankia by injecting €19bn of sovereign bonds into its parent company, which could then be swapped for cash at the ECB’s three-month refinancing window, avoiding the need to raise the money on bond markets.
The ECB told Madrid that a proper capital injection was needed for Bankia and its plans were in danger of breaching an EU ban on “monetary financing,” or central bank funding of governments, according to two European officials.
more at the link
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Tue May 29, 2012 9:46 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7730ca10 ... z1w6hWwOdm
ECB rejects Madrid plan to boost Bankia

A Spanish plan to recapitalise Bankia, the troubled lender, by indirectly tapping the European Central Bank for cash, was bluntly rejected as unacceptable by the ECB, European officials said.
News of the rejection came as Spain faces elevated borrowing costs in the bond markets, tries to persuade investors it can contain problems in a banking sector weighed down by €180bn of bad property loans and, on Tuesday, saw its central bank governor stand down early.
Madrid had floated the unorthodox idea over the weekend of recapitalising Bankia by injecting €19bn of sovereign bonds into its parent company, which could then be swapped for cash at the ECB’s three-month refinancing window, avoiding the need to raise the money on bond markets.
The ECB told Madrid that a proper capital injection was needed for Bankia and its plans were in danger of breaching an EU ban on “monetary financing,” or central bank funding of governments, according to two European officials.
more at the link
Unrothodox my ass. That is almost exactly what the fed has been doing.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by SlobberToofTigger » Wed May 30, 2012 6:40 am

Blacksmith wrote: Unrothodox my ass. That is almost exactly what the fed has been doing.
The difference is that the fed services a single country whereas the ECB services a bunch of separate countries. What they are suggesting is like California telling the fed to bail out one of their local savings and loans.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Wed May 30, 2012 7:51 am

SlobberToofTigger wrote:
Blacksmith wrote: Unrothodox my ass. That is almost exactly what the fed has been doing.
The difference is that the fed services a single country whereas the ECB services a bunch of separate countries. What they are suggesting is like California telling the fed to bail out one of their local savings and loans.
Like I said, almost exactly. The only difference I can see is there not being a dedicated bond buy. Since few people know exactly what goes on behind those closed doors I think I am pretty close to the truth.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Wed May 30, 2012 3:24 pm

Some interesting contrasts. Sorry but you need a wsj subscription for some content.

Switzerland is preparing for the end of the euro:

http://online.wsj.com/video/E11D29C8-3B ... y_tboright" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I post this because the Swiss while not part of the EU or eurozone are huge players in this mess. They have a lot to lose and they have deep pockets. They are in effect a wild card player.


A banking union is once again proposed.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... bs%3Dvideo" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


This is IMO the start of the fecal matter rolling downhill for Greece's population as at least as it deals with imports. Other insurers will follow suit. As such importers in Greece will find it increasingly expensive and difficult to find companies willing to sell an export goods to merchants in Greece. Imported goods will still be available but they will start costing a hell of a lot more.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... &mg=id-wsj" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Two of the world's biggest trade insurers said Wednesday they won't offer new insurance cover for exporters shipping goods to Greece as they find it increasingly difficult to price such cover amid worries that the country may quit the euro zone.

Credit export insurance ensures that exporters are paid if their client defaults. The loss of such cover is likely to have a major impact on the willingness of companies to trade with Greece, given the country's deteriorating economy.

BTW if I lived in Greece...this would be my cue to leave, or at least seriously reassess my current arrangements.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Wed May 30, 2012 9:36 pm

Somebody thinks they are right too:
GENEVA, Switzerland — Global investors are paying Switzerland to take their money as they look for safe places to park their capital.

The Swiss government issued short-term debt bills worth 688.8 million francs ($716 million) Tuesday at a negative interest rate of 0.62 percent. That means investors are paying to lend money to Switzerland for three months.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wire ... al-crisis/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If I went to the bank and they offered to pay me to hold on to a $100K for few months I would be pretty concerned.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Thu May 31, 2012 8:57 am

Not a whole lot of good data coming out today on the U.S. front. What a week....What a world.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Kommander » Thu May 31, 2012 12:53 pm

I keep wondering if the whole train wreck is going to happen in slow motion or if there is some sort of tipping point after which things will start to happen quite quickly.
Why must all the hoops be on fire?

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Thu May 31, 2012 1:16 pm

Here is Krugman's take on Greece;

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/h ... 725121.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Thu May 31, 2012 5:31 pm

If you ask the people of Greece, they just might say the Euro left Greece already as in (EU)
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Fri Jun 01, 2012 9:21 am

Hang on to your hats. I bet Wall Street traders are glad this is Friday lol.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by greenbeetle » Fri Jun 01, 2012 9:03 pm

Bad jobs number...

Fed is out of bullets. Rates must rise after European melt-down is complete.

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Chinese Bank Runs Underway?

Post by Pilsung » Fri Jun 01, 2012 10:03 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chinese-bank-run" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The balance sheet recession that seems to have correctly diagnosed the problem facing Japan (and now Europe and the US) - explicitly causing debt minimzation as opposed to profit maximization - seems to be taking hold. However, it appears this death-knell for credit-created growth is now being seen in China - as AlsoSprachAnalyst interprets "people are not borrowing, but selling assets to pay down debts, and/or holding cash". What is most worrisome is that while the focus of the world has been on European bank runs (for fear of bank failure and redenomination risk), 21st Century Business Herald now notes that these bank runs have spread to China's industrial and construction-heavy city of Wuyishan. Queues were seen on various branches of China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:02 pm

The bank run in China was event oriented and had nothing to do with the overall state of the banking system in China. You need to include more data. Otherwise it is a distorted picture.

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/financ ... t-now.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The reason which triggered the bank run was that there was a company that has just gone bust, with the founder and other executives ran away, bringing probably RMB1 billion or more away with them. The company in question looks like a Ponzi scheme. It has set up an online shopping site which, on top of selling stuff, asks people to sign up and pay a certain among of money (e.g. RMB1,600), then the company will pay people back at a rate of RMB20 a day (a fee of 5% out of this RMB20 is deducted). It sounds like a pretty good deal for the members, as far as it is working. Based on the bank statement of the members obtained by 21st Century Business Herald, the company did pay back quite a fair amount, but, of course, the company has sucked up more than it has ever had a chance to pay back.

As the company went bust and the boss disappeared, the members of the website who have paid quite a lot of money in hope to be paid back even more became rather angry, and went to the office of this company in Fuzhou (which is actually not at all near Wuyishan) to protest and smash things. However, as a lot of members of the website came from Wuyishan, people are worried. On late 30 May, there was apparently some chatter that the government is dealing with the case, and will need to freeze personal bank accounts (presumably for investigations). As a result of this, people started queuing up at virtually all banks the next day. One local resident told the reporter that the city “has gone crazy”.

Now the boss is arrested, charged with taking deposits from the public illegally. But victims of the scheme are still counting, and the exact count of the victims of the scheme is not known. What is known is that because the website was so popular all over, the victims of this scheme will not be limited to one city of Wuyishan.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Tater Raider » Sat Jun 02, 2012 6:27 am


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jun 02, 2012 6:56 am

The statement from the President of the World Bank is an open threat to those thinking about leaving and those who are supposed to keep it from happening. "Leave the EU and you will trigger the apococlypsy" is what he was saying. How true that is remains to be seen.
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