Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by ei8htx » Tue Nov 22, 2011 12:49 am

Everything is going to plan...

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by J.C. » Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:56 am

ei8htx wrote:Everything is going to plan...
Both sides are convinced that somehow an election will resolve the deadlock by handing one party the trifecta and make the choices clearer. Of course, it is very unlikely to do either.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Lynxian » Thu Nov 24, 2011 6:09 pm

J.C. wrote:
ei8htx wrote:Everything is going to plan...
Both sides are convinced that somehow an election will resolve the deadlock by handing one party the trifecta and make the choices clearer. Of course, it is very unlikely to do either.
Or: neither side want to make the tough decision since that means they won't get elected during the next elections. So they're both just deliberately stranding it, waiting for the automatic cuts just so that they can complain about it during elections and blame the other side. It's the only way both sides will maintain relative power and getting the tough job done without having to make too much of a personal sacrifice. (It's not as if politicians will feel the results of the supercuts the most.)
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by SeerSavant » Thu Nov 24, 2011 9:55 pm

Lynxian wrote:
J.C. wrote:
ei8htx wrote:Everything is going to plan...
Both sides are convinced that somehow an election will resolve the deadlock by handing one party the trifecta and make the choices clearer. Of course, it is very unlikely to do either.
Or: neither side want to make the tough decision since that means they won't get elected during the next elections. So they're both just deliberately stranding it, waiting for the automatic cuts just so that they can complain about it during elections and blame the other side. It's the only way both sides will maintain relative power and getting the tough job done without having to make too much of a personal sacrifice. (It's not as if politicians will feel the results of the supercuts the most.)
Well said...

I think you said it just about perfect...

(edit, to remove the plus-one ... Seemed a bit silly )
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Thu Nov 24, 2011 10:46 pm

The poor showing for the german bonds were not surprising. Concerning and attention getting yes but surprising? No.
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- German bunds fell for a second day, extending yesterday's drop when bids at a sale of the bonds fell short of the maximum amount on offer, amid speculation the euro area may be moving nearer to common debt sales.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... z1egY3nXi7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



That likely explains this article.
France and Germany agreed on Thursday to stop bickering openly about whether the European Central Bank should do more to rescue the euro zone from a deepening sovereign debt crisis. They expressed their backing for Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in his task of overcoming the country's massive debt burden.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy also said Paris and Berlin would circulate joint proposals before a December 9 European Union summit for treaty amendments to entrench tougher budget discipline in the 17-nation euro area.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-sha ... 33362.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TacAir » Fri Nov 25, 2011 12:45 am

Saw where both Portugal and Hungry have both had their debt rated as 'junk'.

That's going to help, yes? /Sarc
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Fri Nov 25, 2011 1:23 am

TacAir wrote:Saw where both Portugal and Hungry have both had their debt rated as 'junk'.

That's going to help, yes? /Sarc
Neither one of these should surprise the markets. However you are right this does not bode well.

Note that Hungary is a NATO and EU member but it still uses it own currency (forint) and the the Euro. Most of its debt is in Euros or Swiss CHF however. Which is obviously not good for Hungary but may limit the impact of the credit downgrade. Note the forint has been hammered by the market. This devaluation relative to the euro and CHF makes the debt that much more expensive for Hungary to repay.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 6TTDS0.DTL" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Portugal does use the euro and is well known as one of the PIIGS.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by bluesquid » Fri Nov 25, 2011 3:33 pm

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by DarkAxel » Fri Nov 25, 2011 7:05 pm

S&P Downgrades Belgium's credit rating:
CNN Money wrote:NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Belgium Friday as the sovereign debt crisis continues to spread across the continent.

The rating change put Belgium's rating down one notch to AA. That's the S&P's fourth-highest rating is still investment grade. But the rating agency warned it is considering further cuts, assigning it a negative outlook.

S&P cited "renewed funding and market risk pressure" in the downgrade announcement, saying those risks are "increasing the perception of difficulties in the Belgian financial sector and in our opinion raising the likelihood that the sector will require more sovereign support."

Worries about the European economy falling into a new recession and what it means to Belgium's budget situation was also cited by the agency.

"With exports of over 80% of GDP, Belgium is one of the most open economies in the eurozone and is therefore in our opinion highly susceptible to any weakening of external demand," it said.

S&P says it expects Belgium's debt will equal about 93% of its gross domestic product at the end of this year and could soon top 100%.

"The Belgian government's capacity to prevent an increase in general government debt...is being constrained by rapid private sector deleveraging both in Belgium and among many of Belgium's key trading partners," it said.

Borrowing costs in Belgium have been trending higher, as they have in many other eurozone nations. Friday, the interest rate on 10-year Belgian bonds rose to 5.86%. That's a far cry from where yields were six weeks ago, when 10-year Belgian bonds fetched yields under 4%.

Friday's downgrade came after Belgian markets were already closed. And with a Belgian bond auction slated for Monday, yields could move even further away from those recent lows.

Belgium has plenty of company. European bond yields have been steadily moving higher all week as investor demand weakened amid heightened worries over the spreading debt crisis.

The Belgian downgrade is reflective of those rising rates, which is linked to the diminishing confidence investors have from a global perspective, said Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders, adding that the Belgian note remains one of the strongest in Europe.

Yields for Italian 10-year bonds climbed back to the danger zone above 7% Friday, following a difficult auction. And even Germany, the strongest eurozone economy with the lowest yields, had trouble finding buyers at its auction earlier this week.
Eurozone teeters on edge of recession

Belgium has gone more than a year since its last parliamentary elections without being able to form a government, a fact that S&P also cited in its concern about its ability to address the looming budget problems.

"While Belgium's caretaker government has implemented temporary measures that have improved the primary fiscal position during 2011, in our opinion it lacks a mandate to implement deeper fiscal and structural reforms," said S&P.

Reynders said S&P's downgrade just reinforces the need for Belgium to finalize its 2012 budget.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Krustofski » Sat Nov 26, 2011 8:32 am

ei8htx wrote:Everything is going to plan...
You asume someone has a plan? Because looking at this clusterfuck...
Off the internet until further notice.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by max v » Sat Nov 26, 2011 8:58 am

DarkAxel wrote:S&P Downgrades Belgium's credit rating:
CNN Money wrote:NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Belgium Friday as the sovereign debt crisis continues to spread across the continent.

...

Belgium has gone more than a year since its last parliamentary elections without being able to form a government, a fact that S&P also cited in its concern about its ability to address the looming budget problems.

...
It's 532 days to be exact.

http://volkzktregering.be/

Anyone know where these rating agencies get their mandate?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Sat Nov 26, 2011 9:17 am

max v wrote:Anyone know where these rating agencies get their mandate?
They don't have anything like a mandate. They are estimators, and the value of the estimation depends on their track record, both long term and short term. They are not saying "we don't think Belgium can repay debt" they are just moving them from one group of accounts to another.

The market then reacts to change the bond prices. Or not, as often the downgrades are expected and is already built into the price.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Kommander » Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:49 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:
max v wrote:Anyone know where these rating agencies get their mandate?
They don't have anything like a mandate. They are estimators, and the value of the estimation depends on their track record, both long term and short term. They are not saying "we don't think Belgium can repay debt" they are just moving them from one group of accounts to another.

The market then reacts to change the bond prices. Or not, as often the downgrades are expected and is already built into the price.
They are kinda like Underwriters Laboratories. Like Phil said they are trusted because of their reputation. Note that there are some Chinese agencies out there that from what I can tell no one pays attention to. It is possible that one of these agencies could make enough bad calls that the various entities that use them simply stop listening, but it would take allot to destroy a reputation going back to 1860.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Pilsung » Sat Nov 26, 2011 1:16 pm

I would not make the mistake of assuming the rating agencies are credible, independent, impartial actors. All three of the big rating agencies - Fitch, S&P, and Moodys - assigned AAA ratings to bundles of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that were manifestly toxic-waste subprime crap. "Investors" in Europe and Asia that bought these MBS on the strength of their fraudulent ratings got badly burned. From what I can tell, the ratings agencies act in collusion with big Wall Street banks to either apply inflated ratings to "investments" being peddled by the banks that hire the rating agencies, as in the case of MBSs, or to downgrade countries that balk at going along with Wall Street-proferred "financial solutions" that generate lucrative fees for the bankers but are financially ruinous for the taxpayers of those countries who are ultimately on the hook to repay those debts. China's Dadong rating agency, by contrast, has actually become more credible than the "Big Three" when it comes to issuing downgrades of sovereign debt, although ALL of the ratings agencies usually issue downgrades way too late, after the horse has left the barn.
Last edited by Pilsung on Sat Nov 26, 2011 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Pilsung » Sat Nov 26, 2011 1:19 pm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... warns.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Meanwhile, Britain's Foreign Office is warning UK expats in Eurozone countries to be prepared to GOOD or otherwise take prudent precautions for civil unrest that could sweep the PIIGS in the event of a Euro collapse.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Sat Nov 26, 2011 1:43 pm

Pilsung wrote:I would not make the mistake of assuming the rating agencies are credible, independent, impartial actors. All three of the big rating agencies - Fitch, S&P, and Moodys - assigned AAA ratings to bundles of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that were manifestly toxic-waste subprime crap.
I never meant to imply that - I said they don't have an official mandate and are respected based on reputation. No US company rated AAA by S&P in 1928 went bankrupt in the Great Depression. That's the sort of info they provide, but the modern reality is they are often paid to rate a company, and sometimes that payment influences the rating.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by DarkAxel » Sat Nov 26, 2011 2:55 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:
Pilsung wrote:I would not make the mistake of assuming the rating agencies are credible, independent, impartial actors. All three of the big rating agencies - Fitch, S&P, and Moodys - assigned AAA ratings to bundles of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that were manifestly toxic-waste subprime crap.
I never meant to imply that - I said they don't have an official mandate and are respected based on reputation. No US company rated AAA by S&P in 1928 went bankrupt in the Great Depression. That's the sort of info they provide, but the modern reality is they are often paid to rate a company, and sometimes that payment influences the rating.
And sometimes the rating is based on fraudulent data provided by the company being rated.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Sun Nov 27, 2011 9:57 am

Europe’s monetary union may unravel sooner than the region’s leaders can mobilize to ensure the sovereign-debt crisis doesn’t overwhelm the currency, a UBS AG (UBSN) foreign exchange strategist wrote.
“Financial markets continue to move faster than politicians,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, head of foreign exchange strategy for UBS, wrote in today’s note. Markets are starting to “price in the endgame” for the currency, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-2 ... -says.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.
The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.
“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... warns.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Sun Nov 27, 2011 9:11 pm

New York Times weighs in
LONDON — Eighteen months into a sovereign debt crisis — and after many futile efforts to resolve it — the endgame appears to be fast approaching for Europe.

While its leaders may well hold to the current path of offering piecemeal solutions, nervous investors are fleeing European countries and banks.

Two main options exist: either the euro zone splits apart or it binds closer together.
Underlying these possible outcomes has been Europe’s persistent inability to address the central weakness of its common currency project: how to get money from the few countries that have it, mainly Germany and the Netherlands, to the many that need it — Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and perhaps even France.

The consequences of continued inaction are dire. Uncertainty and austerity have decimated the euro zone’s growth prospects, and analysts now expect the region’s economy to shrink 0.2 percent next year — a blow for the many American companies that export there.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/28/busin ... AY&ei=5065" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Valarius » Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:15 am

Moody's: Every European Nation Now At Risk on Debt

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_c ... lout-.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Throwing more logs on the Eurozone fire, Moody's Investors Service said early Monday that the continent’s debt crisis now is "threatening the credit standing of all European sovereigns."

That's a not-so-subtle warning that even Moody’s top-rung Aaa ratings of countries including Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands could be in jeopardy.

...

The firm said its “central scenario” remains that the euro area will be preserved without widespread bond defaults. But policy moves to keep the Eurozone intact “may only emerge after a series of shocks, which may lead to more countries losing access to market funding for a sustained period and requiring a support program,” Moody’s said.

“This would very likely cause those countries' ratings to be moved into speculative grade,” meaning “junk” quality, it said.


Le sigh...
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by max v » Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:37 am

phil_in_cs wrote:
max v wrote:Anyone know where these rating agencies get their mandate?
They don't have anything like a mandate. They are estimators, and the value of the estimation depends on their track record, both long term and short term. They are not saying "we don't think Belgium can repay debt" they are just moving them from one group of accounts to another.

The market then reacts to change the bond prices. Or not, as often the downgrades are expected and is already built into the price.
Thanks Phil, I get the mechanism but it seems like there's no "objective" organ that authorizes and oversees all this activity. A system like that can be easily corrupted by any clerk with a Napoleon complex, and we got plenty of those around here.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Nov 28, 2011 12:19 pm

Valarius wrote:Moody's: Every European Nation Now At Risk on Debt

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_c ... lout-.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Throwing more logs on the Eurozone fire, Moody's Investors Service said early Monday that the continent’s debt crisis now is "threatening the credit standing of all European sovereigns."

That's a not-so-subtle warning that even Moody’s top-rung Aaa ratings of countries including Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands could be in jeopardy.

...

The firm said its “central scenario” remains that the euro area will be preserved without widespread bond defaults. But policy moves to keep the Eurozone intact “may only emerge after a series of shocks, which may lead to more countries losing access to market funding for a sustained period and requiring a support program,” Moody’s said.

“This would very likely cause those countries' ratings to be moved into speculative grade,” meaning “junk” quality, it said.


Le sigh...

You know I was pondering this. I came to the conclusion that if Germany/France/UK/USA loses its AAA rating and all of the companies based in these countries by default also lose their AAA rating (or so the rating agencies say). Then in effect since no large economy has a AAA rating. Then does AA becomes the the new AAA rating?!

These are bizarre times in which we live. :? :wink:

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TacAir » Mon Nov 28, 2011 12:48 pm

raptor wrote:
Valarius wrote:Moody's: Every European Nation Now At Risk on Debt

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_c ... lout-.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Throwing more logs on the Eurozone fire, Moody's Investors Service said early Monday that the continent’s debt crisis now is "threatening the credit standing of all European sovereigns."

That's a not-so-subtle warning that even Moody’s top-rung Aaa ratings of countries including Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands could be in jeopardy.

...

The firm said its “central scenario” remains that the euro area will be preserved without widespread bond defaults. But policy moves to keep the Eurozone intact “may only emerge after a series of shocks, which may lead to more countries losing access to market funding for a sustained period and requiring a support program,” Moody’s said.

“This would very likely cause those countries' ratings to be moved into speculative grade,” meaning “junk” quality, it said.


Le sigh...

You know I was pondering this. I came to the conclusion that if Germany/France/UK/USA loses its AAA rating and all of the companies based in these countries by default also lose their AAA rating (or so the rating agencies say). Then in effect since no large economy has a AAA rating. Then does AA becomes the the new AAA rating?!

These are bizarre times in which we live. :? :wink:


Related Question for Raptor

Seems the news is all abuzz about the 'strength' of hokuday dsales, theings are coming, back, happy days are here again rah, rah, rah...

My wife, who has a PhD in common sense, thinks the sales are robust because (a lot!) folks are seeing a currency collapse (my take is inflation) in the near furture and are buying what they can - while they can?

Under the Carter admin, we saw the start of inflationary expectation inspending - is this a glimmer of the same ahead?

Or - should I just listen to some nice music and calm down?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Kommander » Mon Nov 28, 2011 12:55 pm

My experience is that most of the people who do the black Friday thing have tenuous grasp on economic matters such as inflation.
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