Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by DialM » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:14 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:
Pilsung wrote:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/berluscon ... itors-face

Latest on farsical Berlusconi (non) resignation.

lol, a photo of Berlusconi sleeping at one of the G20 meetings this weekend.
Image
Aids had to wake him up on two different occasions.
Man, that photo is made for photoshop.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:57 pm

DialM wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:
Pilsung wrote:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/berluscon ... itors-face

Latest on farsical Berlusconi (non) resignation.

lol, a photo of Berlusconi sleeping at one of the G20 meetings this weekend.
Image
Aids had to wake him up on two different occasions.
Man, that photo is made for photoshop.

I had not thought of that.

Here is another one that looks perfect for photoshop. :twisted:

Image

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by raptor » Mon Nov 07, 2011 4:32 pm

More on topic. Businesses in Greece have been asking many of the same questions we have been asking. How doe sit work if Greece shifts from the Euro back to the Drachma. Apparently several businesses are making plans just in case.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... MIDDLENews" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tour Operator Sparks Greek-Currency Row
By VANESSA FUHRMANS

While the world speculates on whether Greece will ultimately leave the euro, Europe's biggest tour operator is already anticipating it.

German-based travel giant TUI confirmed Monday it sent notices to Greek hotels in recent weeks, asking them to accept payments in new greek currency should an exit from the single currency happen.

The letters, issued by TUI's Nordic tour-operating unit, added yet another jolt to Greek nerves and pride in recent days. Troubles in debt-laden Greece took center stage last week—first when political maneuvering in Athens appeared to raise the specter of a Greek withdrawal from the common currency, and then when politicians moved to suffocate such fears with a government shake-up.

The country's Hellenic Chamber of Hotels called the move premature and "potentially destabilizing."


Image
Picture taken on June 30 2011 in Berlin shows an advertisement of German car rental firm Sixt published in a newspaper, reading "Dear Greeks, we now once again accept drachmas."

In the letters, the operator asked Greek hoteliers to sign a contract amendment moving to protect TUI were Greece to quit the euro and switch to a new and significantly devalued currency.

The move, which was disclosed over the weekend in the German tabloid Bild-Zeitung, has quickly sparked outrage across Greece's tourism industry, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the economy of Greece, which had a gross domestic product of €230 billion ($317 billion) in 2010.

The Hellenic Chamber of Hotels said it had issued a letter of protest to the Greek economics ministry and the German embassy in Athens, while the government's tourism ministry sent a letter to TUI voicing its unhappiness.

Tourism and hotel associations across the country urged members not to sign the amendment.

"How can they write about a situation that doesn't even exist for the moment? The euro is our national currency," said Kostas Kyriazis, president of the association that represents hotels on the islands of Samos and Ikaria, who said most hotels have contracts in place for next year. "I believe it's just a move to pressure hotels to lower their prices."

TUI defended the move as responsible planning for a possible scenario. "TUI Travel, as a responsible publicly listed company, always seeks to avoid any possibility of being adversely affected by currency and macro-economic situations and plans accordingly," the company said in a statement. "This may mean that from time to time we seek amendments to contracts with our suppliers."

Whether hotels agree to the provision now or not, the tour operator's action suggests what may be in store for Greece's all-important tourism industry should the country have to exit the euro bloc. Economists say the returning to the drachma would prompt a devaluation of as much as 50%.

That would likely spur growth in tourism, as Greek hotels, restaurants and other tourism offerings would become cheaper for foreign travelers. That, in turn, would boost Greece's competitiveness vis-à-vis rival travel destinations, particularly neighboring Turkey, analysts say. But it also would cause a dramatic drop in Greek living standards, including those among tourism-industry workers.

Though Greeks have chafed under austerity measures, recent polls show the majority of the country's population wants to retain the euro.

Greek hotels and travel operators have already lowered prices this year and last amid the crisis, helping to boost the number of foreign visitors by an expected 12% this year to 16.5 million, according to the Association of Greek Tourism Enterprises.

TUI's move could also feed populist tensions in the two primary countries involved: Germans' grumbling over the footing the largest share of Greece's rescue and insistence on stringent austerity measures has provoked Greek ire.

While TUI Travel is based in the U.K., its parent company, TUI AG, is headquartered in Germany. Its letter to Greek hoteliers is the second time in months that a German company has raised the idea of Greece quitting the single currency.

In June, the German-based rental-car company Sixt AG launched a newspaper and online advertisement campaign, part of a string of ads that sought to advertise its rates with saucy humor.

Showing a BMW convertible superimposed on a picture of the Acropolis, it read: "Dear Greeks, Sixt accepts drachmas again!"

After causing an uproar and a torrent of angry messages on its corporate Facebook page, Sixt removed the ad and issued an apology.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Pilsung » Wed Nov 09, 2011 7:56 am

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danie ... has-begun/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The austerity death spiral has begun. Europeans accustomed to cradle-to-grave benefits from their governments are not going to react well.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Lynxian » Wed Nov 09, 2011 10:47 am

Pilsung wrote:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danie ... has-begun/

The austerity death spiral has begun. Europeans accustomed to cradle-to-grave benefits from their governments are not going to react well.
Oh, I receive benefits on a daily basis? Do tell!

Yes, European countries might have to cut on benefits and welfare, but so will the US to control her budget, so I see no reason why to scoff at Europeans in particular about this.

More on-topic: I'm curious how the EMU countries are planning to combat a potentially falling Italy. There isn't enough money to bail out Italy. If we bail them out then we all fall. Is it political if I say that I pray that the monetary system that has been forced upon us will fall and we'll get our respective currencies back or will have a monetary union with only the countries that have their affairs in order?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by R34P3R » Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:27 am

Lynxian wrote: Oh, I receive benefits on a daily basis? Do tell!
Allow me to apologize on his behalf, as that is a gross generalization. I admit we have a poor habit of running with scraps of information and preconceptions on this side of the Atlantic, and though we do speak out of turn we usually mean well. Hopefully this is just a miscommunication though. Perhaps he mispoke and meant more along the lines of the high percentage of the Greece population that works in the public sector? And you are very much correct, as our current entitlement programs exceed our revenue either now or in the future as more people join the ranks of the retired.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TacAir » Wed Nov 09, 2011 11:52 am

Lynxian wrote:
Pilsung wrote:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danie ... has-begun/

The austerity death spiral has begun. Europeans accustomed to cradle-to-grave benefits from their governments are not going to react well.
Oh, I receive benefits on a daily basis? Do tell!

Yes, European countries might have to cut on benefits and welfare, but so will the US to control her budget, so I see no reason why to scoff at Europeans in particular about this.

(snip to save on space)
Image

AND Median gross annual earnings of full-time employees, 2006

Image

The one last bit often overlooked
In Greece, the service sector contributes 78.8% of GDP, industry 17.9%, and agriculture 3.3%. The public sector accounts for about 40% of total economic output

Service sector - cooks, bakers and candlestick makers, waiters and taxi drivers.
Public sector - working for The Man.

40% is a tad high, In Ohio (roughly the size and population of Greece) 15% work for the public sector, and even that (some claim) is too high - no more on this, just want to compare like stats...
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by R34P3R » Wed Nov 09, 2011 12:35 pm

The stats were a little confusing. Service, industry, and agriculture all added up to 100%. Where did the 40% public sector fit into that? I suppose running a government budget off 140% GDP would explain how they bungled their economy so badly though...
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by DialM » Wed Nov 09, 2011 1:51 pm

R34P3R wrote:The stats were a little confusing. Service, industry, and agriculture all added up to 100%. Where did the 40% public sector fit into that? I suppose running a government budget off 140% GDP would explain how they bungled their economy so badly though...
GDP <> Gross Output
GDP = Gross Output + Intermediate Consumption.

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TacAir » Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:06 pm

R34P3R wrote:The stats were a little confusing. Service, industry, and agriculture all added up to 100%. Where did the 40% public sector fit into that? I suppose running a government budget off 140% GDP would explain how they bungled their economy so badly though...
That's why i love charts. The contributes parts = these are folks making money and paying taxes. 78% "Service sector" shows just how much of the Greek economy is tourist related - damn near 80% - like a resort town that's a whole country!

The public sector stuff - 40% of the output (taxes and 'stuff') goes to pay the cops, tax collectors and so on. Add in things like roads, subsidized schooling, pensions and pretty quick you are in over your head.

Tourism is down and has been down since 2008. That drop has really hurt places dependent on that segment as a source of revenue - say like Tucson. Az or Aspen, Co. - or say, Greece. There is a reason Sandals Resorts are offering 65% discounts! for another example.

I'm sure Raptor will swing by at some point and make a comment on this... (hint)

Finally, Greek public sector folks get really good sized paychecks, and that miffs of lot of folks in the EU as well. The min wage chart shows regular shlubs are as bad off there as here...
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:14 pm

Italy bonds top 7.25%, DOW off 400pts (3%+)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... rsens.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Kommander » Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:35 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:Italy bonds top 7.25%, DOW off 400pts (3%+)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... rsens.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So is it time for the Doom Bell yet or is there still hope? They can not expect any help.from the US and I don't see China purchasing the country either.
Image

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:56 pm

Kommander wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:Italy bonds top 7.25%, DOW off 400pts (3%+)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... rsens.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So is it time for the Doom Bell yet or is there still hope? They can not expect any help.from the US and I don't see China purchasing the country either.
I've been seeing people say "This is it - game over for the economy" for 25 years now, so at this point "who fucking knows?" is the answer to your question.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by phil_in_cs » Wed Nov 09, 2011 6:34 pm

Meanwhile, back in the States, Alabama to be specific:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... uptcy.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Jefferson County, Alabama, filed the biggest U.S. municipal bankruptcy after an agreement among elected officials and investors to refinance $3.1 billion in sewer bonds fell apart.
The county, home to Birmingham, the state’s most-populous city, listed assets and debt of more than $1 billion in Chapter 9 papers filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Birmingham.
The county’s bankruptcy attorney, Kenneth Klee, said the filing was necessary because talks with creditors and the receiver in charge of the sewer plant broke down.

“There was an impasse reached,” Klee said in an interview today. “None of the creditors -- zero -- signed up to the deal that we have been negotiating for six weeks.”
The county’s major creditors, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), signed agreements in September to reorganize the sewer debt to avoid bankruptcy. County officials said at the time that JPMorgan would provide $750 million of about $1.1 billion in concessions.

By October, the deal began to fall apart as disagreements emerged among Jefferson County’s 25 state lawmakers. The deal required action by the state Legislature to help the county close its budget deficit, create an independent sewer authority and give state moral-obligation backing to new sewer debt.
more at the link
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TC » Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:41 am

Approaching critical mass?
The Telegraph wrote: Germany and France discuss plans for a 'smaller eurozone'

Germany and France have reportedly discussed plans for a smaller eurozone, as stock markets drop on continuing fears over Italian debt, despite the country's president trying to calm investors.

• Germany and France discuss 'smaller eurozone'
• Global stockmarkets drop again on eurozone fears
• France bans short-selling on shares for further three months
• Italy prepares for £4.2bn bond sale after yields hit 7pc
• Spanish-German 10-year yield spread widens to record
• IMF chief Lagarde calls for 'political clarity' in Greece, Italy
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by DialM » Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:10 am

French, Spanish, and Belgian bond spreads to the bund at all-time euro-era highs now. Personally, I think the case of Belgium presents a particularly difficult problem, given that it hasn't had a fully-formed government for over 500 days now (the current world record).

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by the_alias » Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:45 am

TC wrote:Approaching critical mass?
The Telegraph wrote: Germany and France discuss plans for a 'smaller eurozone'

Germany and France have reportedly discussed plans for a smaller eurozone, as stock markets drop on continuing fears over Italian debt, despite the country's president trying to calm investors.

• Germany and France discuss 'smaller eurozone'
• Global stockmarkets drop again on eurozone fears
• France bans short-selling on shares for further three months
• Italy prepares for £4.2bn bond sale after yields hit 7pc
• Spanish-German 10-year yield spread widens to record
• IMF chief Lagarde calls for 'political clarity' in Greece, Italy
Germany declares "war" - just in a slightly different format from the first two times...
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by J.C. » Thu Nov 10, 2011 8:59 am

Kommander wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:Italy bonds top 7.25%, DOW off 400pts (3%+)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... rsens.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So is it time for the Doom Bell yet or is there still hope? They can not expect any help.from the US and I don't see China purchasing the country either.
Even at 8% their debt service is less than a third of tax revenue. So, they can definitely avoid default if they control spending.
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Krustofski » Thu Nov 10, 2011 10:37 am

J.C. wrote:
Kommander wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:Italy bonds top 7.25%, DOW off 400pts (3%+)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-0 ... rsens.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So is it time for the Doom Bell yet or is there still hope? They can not expect any help.from the US and I don't see China purchasing the country either.
Even at 8% their debt service is less than a third of tax revenue. So, they can definitely avoid default if they control spending.
Yeah, Italy is a different case than Greece. The Italian economy is doing fine and taxes keep coming. They have a serious long-term problem, not an actual emergency. Yet.
the_alias wrote:Germany declares "war" - just in a slightly different format from the first two times...
A lot of Greeks share this sentiment:

Image

:lol:


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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Kommander » Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:04 am

If the Greeks keep giving the Germans shit about being bad guys the Germans may eventually decide to actually be bad guys.
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Why must all the hoops be on fire?

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by the_alias » Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:08 am

Kommander wrote:If the Greeks keep giving the Germans shit about being bad guys the Germans may eventually decide to actually be bad guys.
Because holding the ECB hostage isn't bad enough?
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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Kommander » Thu Nov 10, 2011 11:18 am

the_alias wrote:
Kommander wrote:If the Greeks keep giving the Germans shit about being bad guys the Germans may eventually decide to actually be bad guys.
Because holding the ECB hostage isn't bad enough?
Well I was thinking more along the lines of panzer divisions and puppet states...
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Why must all the hoops be on fire?

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by TC » Thu Nov 10, 2011 3:20 pm

Kommander wrote:If the Greeks keep giving the Germans shit about being bad guys the Germans may eventually decide to actually be bad guys.
You mean a bit like this?

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Re: Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

Post by Lynxian » Thu Nov 10, 2011 4:08 pm

TacAir wrote:
Lynxian wrote:
Pilsung wrote:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danie ... has-begun/

The austerity death spiral has begun. Europeans accustomed to cradle-to-grave benefits from their governments are not going to react well.
Oh, I receive benefits on a daily basis? Do tell!

Yes, European countries might have to cut on benefits and welfare, but so will the US to control her budget, so I see no reason why to scoff at Europeans in particular about this.

(snip to save on space)
Image

AND Median gross annual earnings of full-time employees, 2006

Image

The one last bit often overlooked
In Greece, the service sector contributes 78.8% of GDP, industry 17.9%, and agriculture 3.3%. The public sector accounts for about 40% of total economic output

Service sector - cooks, bakers and candlestick makers, waiters and taxi drivers.
Public sector - working for The Man.

40% is a tad high, In Ohio (roughly the size and population of Greece) 15% work for the public sector, and even that (some claim) is too high - no more on this, just want to compare like stats...
So? Ever looked on a map that shows Europe? I live in The Netherlands. It is said I receive cradle-to-grave benefits. I'd really like to hear which I'm receiving, since last time I checked I was receiving none and paying some of the highest tax rates in Europe for a social network for others. Believe it or not, but it's quite frustrating to see at least a third of my income dissolving through income tax (and I'm not even going to start on all the other taxes), not receiving any benefits, paying for those of others - both on a national and European level - just to hear I could probably do with a few less benefits and losing some more money. Yes, some governments and some social groups could do with less government funding and more checkbook balance, but for the most of us that doesn't ring true at all. It'd be nice if this was acknowledged, since my government isn't tossing the money left and right for us to pick up, they're leeching it out of our pockets and asking us to be 'social' towards those who leech. It's infuriating.

Kommander wrote:
the_alias wrote:
Kommander wrote:If the Greeks keep giving the Germans shit about being bad guys the Germans may eventually decide to actually be bad guys.
Because holding the ECB hostage isn't bad enough?
Well I was thinking more along the lines of panzer divisions and puppet states...
Personally, I'm thinking of die Duetsche Mark and a Nederlandse Gulden tied together. Mwahahaha! Ah well, a man can dream...
Slow zombies, evidently...
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