2012? The End or Not?

[hatchtrikk]

let me just cut to the chase.

my thoughts of what will bring the PAW or TEOTWAWKI seem to differ from most peoples.

it is my belief that it will come from December 21, 2012.

i do not, however, believe that it will be the second coming or a biblical apocalypse.

i feel that the PAW will come from those who LITERALLY believe that the world will end on that date.

i think that the food, gas and other supplies will begin to dwindle weeks or months before the 21st comes. the shortages are what i believe will bring the PAW. that being said, my wife and i are planning all of our preparations around that date.

i would like some feedback from you guys. do you think my assumptions are valid? any thoughts or suggestions?

thanks in advance

[raptor]

Kind of like Y2K?

Since this is the planning and preparations forum why don't you explain what specific preparations you are making for y12.

[Y.T.]

I'm not sure how to politely say "um, no. no. not at all."

1) I have not encountered anyone who actually believes the 2012 absurdity

2) I have not seen any indication or reports that the number of people who do is even large enough to cause any effect or impact

3) I have not seen any indication or reports that those who do believe pose even the smallest threat to societal stability, nor that they plan to panic and run through the streets creating a path of devastation

4) if there were any problems is most certainly will not result in a total end of the world as you've stated. it might maybe kinda possibly result in some minor annoyance.

For some perspective: Y2K was a much more tangible, realistic, believable problem and there were no reports of any of the issues you've mentioned.

If you want to worry about something, I'd suggest worrying about feasible risks based on any number of real world problems we're actually experiencing. financial crisis, housing crisis, unemployment, pandemic, winter storms, political concerns.

There are far bigger, better and real things to be planning for. If you want to keep planning for 2012 go ahead I guess. but just make sure you don't do it to the exclusion or detriment of actual risks between now and then.

[Jeriah]

And this is why I'm glad Y.T. is back. She's so sensible!

I'm sure the wacko cult suicides etc. will be all over the news, but overall impact should be limited.

Imma try to be somewhere in the Yucatan when this shit goes down, just for shits and giggles, and if I'm at home, sure, I may be a little extra on the alert, but I'm not expecting anything.

Never hurts to be prepared for the unexpected, though.

[bonanacrom]

Isn't that the date the mothership is going to return ?

[Oneswunk]

Yes and we must all dance naked in the moonlight speaking strange incantations. Then the mother ship will move on to the next planet. If we do not do these things sheep will take over the world ruled by Gunny.

[Monklicous]

.

[XtraBright]

I think the 2012 date is pretty esoteric.

But i can not believe that the crumbling system can be held any longer than a few years.

We have a problem ?
Throw some billions on it, another problem, more billions.

Technically i think:
If one of the G8 is unable to pay the interest on it´s debt (not the debt itself, states don´t pay debts, they make new debt to pay the old debt) from the income that is generated by taxes it´s a GameOver situation.

More taxes (see Laffer curve) can only be raised up to some percentage, afterwards the income from taxes decreases and the exonomy (and mostly middle class) get´s struggled or quits (at least mentally).

A "hair cut" for the lenders will follow and i don´t see a new "bubble" that could be inflated that much to give us some more decades of monopoly.

Green jobs fail, CO2 trade fail, the small attempts for a new global water regulation (and trade) fail, web 2.0 fail and on and on ...

I estimate a yearlong decline, massive PAW creating movements only if some politician loses it.

[hatchtrikk]

Basically, a few of the reasons I think that 2012 may result in something to worry about are:

-People generally freak out when they think something is going to affect society as a whole in a negative way. For example, as soon as Obama won the election, the stores were completely depleted of ammunition and primer was nowhere to be found. Everyone was so worried that guns and ammo were going to be taken away, that everyone rushed to the stores and bought up every caliber they could lay their eyes on. The selection of guns was minimal, and no store could replace inventory. As soon as they put anything on the shelves, it was gone.

-I know before Y2K people were stockpiling food and water. There were no lasting shortages, but then again, Y2K was a threat on computers so people weren't worried about never being able to buy food again.

-I've talked to people who believe that 2012 is going to be the end of the world as we know it. The various ideas I've heard consist of "the rapture", war on American soil, an giant EMP etc.

-I really don't think anything is going to happen simply because it's December 21, 2012, but I am a bit concerned about panic en masse. Just like during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, there were no available supplies so people began looting. Police had a very difficult time restoring order (although the disaster itself DID hinder their efforts).

I'm not sure if it's possible for another scenario like that, but I find it reasonable to think that shortages of supplies because people think "the end is nigh" may lead to rioting and looting on large levels.

In response to how I'm planning and preparing:

My wife and I are preparing for a PAW scenario on a lasting scale, (perhaps due to biological or nuclear warfare) so we're hoping to end up with a five to ten year supply of food, supplies, medical equipment, and general gear (shoes, clothing, weapons gear, etc.)

As far as how we're planning AROUND the idea of 2012:
We're simply trying to beef up our supply before then.

[raptor]

Let me point out something to everyone scoffing at the 2012 theory on this thread.

I think all of would agree that for a wide variety of reasons that it is possible that a SHTF event is quite possible between now and December 2012. I am not saying TEOTWAWKI will happen December 2012 only that a SHTF event is quite possible at any point in time. I think we all are preparing for SHTF events for exactly that reason.

I personally view the 2012 concerns as simply disaster film fodder for just another arbitrary point in time that someone has decided the world will end. That said I still prep and am prepared and I encourage people I care about to be prepared.

[Kabong30]

I think that people did not really start bugging out about Y2k until '99. I'll have full gas tanks in our vehicles and some firewood laid in just like I did in '99. I'm already prepping for non-2012 related short-term SHTF scenarios so I suspect that this won't be much different.

Here's something to think about. What would happen if a thousand years from now some archeologist found your laptop and you had just not bothered to update your Outlook calendar past a certain date and they decided that was the day the world would end? I have to wonder if this isn't the same thing. But it's fun to think about and if it gets people to prep, then I say it's great!

[Y.T.]

-I know before Y2K people were stockpiling food and water. There were no lasting shortages, but then again, Y2K was a threat on computers so people weren't worried about never being able to buy food again.

actually, yes, some people were afraid they'd never be able to buy food again. The fear of Y2K was that it would be a total disintegration of society. Computers failing would affect everything from banks to traffic signals to jobs to food supplies to police response. News reports weren't like "oh, your personal computer won't work. you won't be able to check email". They were reporting the possible services that could be affected by a nationwide or worldwide computer shutdown.

That was a much more believable scenario for people than what we're discussing here: for some unknown, unspecified, unexplained reason the world will end in Dec. 2012.

-I really don't think anything is going to happen simply because it's December 21, 2012, but I am a bit concerned about panic en masse. Just like during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, there were no available supplies so people began looting. Police had a very difficult time restoring order (although the disaster itself DID hinder their efforts).

First, what information do you have that there is a large mass of people who believe 2012 will be rapture, war, etc.? Second, what information do you have that these people are going to panic en masse? Do you have statistics or reports of some kind that lead you to those assumptions? Are you seeing examples of a large number of people believing the 2012 hype on television, in interviews, in organizations?

Third, you're comparing apples and tow trucks there by putting 2012 in the same category as the post-Katrina events. Saying that people in an actual disaster zone, that was insufficiently supplied by emergency relief teams, turned to looting during the disaster itself is a sign of panic is totally missing the context and facts of the scenario. People weren't looting as a pre-emptive panic against some vague portent of doom. They were looting because a huge area of the city had been essentially destroyed, causing a lack of resources and service.

-People generally freak out when they think something is going to affect society as a whole in a negative way. For example, as soon as Obama won the election, the stores were completely depleted of ammunition and primer was nowhere to be found.

Again you keep comparing a vague general unlikely prediction of the end of the world to events that had an actual, legitimate cause-and-effect. People started stockpiling guns and ammo because of reports of the gun laws dramatically changing. It appears that many have gone overboard in that prep, but still it was a direct formulated action to a specific perceived threat. not blind panic.

My point is that there has not been evidence that 2012 is a real, legitimate sign of anything at all; nor has there been evidence that the country as a whole perceives it as such; nor news reports that citizens should consider stockpiling; nor that there is a large enough number of believers to pose any significant threat to resources. There may be some small pockets of hoarders, but there are no signs at all that such actions would have an impact. I mention this because you've stated you are planning for 2012 to be an actual collapse of society causing TEOTWAWKI. Some middle ground in planning might serve you better.

You can of course still make 2012 your primary planning if you wish, but you may want to evaluate the realistic level of risk there compared with other potential threats to keep things balanced.

[nyiangelo]

2012 is just the next thing "big " thing. Kind of like "Y2K" was. It gives some of these fanatics something to hold on to. A disaster could strike any minute. Besides if it is the end there's not much any of us can do.....

[Y.T.]

I think that people did not really start bugging out about Y2k until '99.

I do think that's an important point. At the current time it does not appear that public panic of 2012 is a threat. However, we're trying to project more than 3 years into the future, during which time there could be a number of unforeseen changes and events. If the climate changes as we get closer to Dec 2012 and public panic does become a threat then yes, I feel that's a valid issue for additional preparation specific to that circumstance.

Meanwhile there are many other concrete threats/risks that seem far more worthy of attention. Or at the least I don't feel people should be prepping for a vague 2012 threat to the exclusion of other more realistic and daily issues.

Let me point out something to everyone scoffing at the 2012 theory on this thread.

If fear of 2012 and only 2012 makes new comers join the preparedness train, I'm all for it. Anything to get people preparing is better than having them do nothing. If they wanted to start learning preparedness because they were afraid of alien abduction or the government being taken over by teletubbies, I'd still support it.

[Kip]

Does this have anything to do with the folks that think that the world leaders are actually reptillian shape shifters? I tend to listen to some Alex Jones and such, but the 2012 thing and Nibiru and some of what David Icke says seems a little off to me... and yes, i do watch too many Youtube videos.

As long as people take steps to prepare for whatever type of disaster that may affect them or others, i don't care how crazy your reason might sound.

[raptor]

Let me point out something to everyone scoffing at the 2012 theory on this thread.

If fear of 2012 and only 2012 makes new comers join the preparedness train, I'm all for it. Anything to get people preparing is better than having them do nothing. If they wanted to start learning preparedness because they were afraid of alien abduction or the government being taken over by teletubbies, I'd still support it.

My sentiments exactly. Personally I ascribe a very low probability of a SHYF event on any given day, However even with remote odds given enough elapsed time, even a highly unlikely event event moves down the scale of probability from remote to overdue.

[seraosha]

As long as people take steps to prepare for whatever type of disaster that may affect them or others, i don't care how crazy your reason might sound.

+1
I mean we are arguing on the possibility of 2012 being a very bad day...on a site where Zombies are used as a metaphor?
Sure, 2012, why not?

[silentpoet]

I believe it may be a danger sometimes, but then I take my lithium.


In other words you about have to be crazy to believe it is a serious threat.

[t_surprise]

2012 is the end....... of 2012

[liberty45]

Isn't that the date the mothership is going to return ?

Yeah to take you home

[MikeCharlieUniform]

I think 2012 is a bunch of nonsense, but then again there are an astonishing number of people who are positive the 2nd Coming (and thus the end of the world) will happen in their lifetimes... and that does have a real effect, I think. So who knows.

I do want to make a statement about Y2K from my electrical/computer engineering background; it was a real, concrete problem, with potentially VeryBad(tm) consequences. However, (a) professionals knew about it well in advance, and (b) took in very seriously. By the time the real event rolled around, all the systems and software that were at risk had been addressed and fixed. The excellent work done to fix the problem and prepare for the rollover ended up making the entire event look like a lot of alarmism. Some of it was, but not all of it. Realistically, the worst I was anticipating were some mild hiccups, and we didn't even get that.

[raptor]

We now have a name for it, The History Channel is doing a special on the Nostradamus Effect.

http://www.history.com/shows.do?action= ... wId=481834

[Phoenix David]

I have conferred with our alien overlords and they assure me that the world will not end in 2012.

This Nostradamus crap this is like the 3rd time that he has said the world will end on such and such date. If you make 30,000 predictions written so vaguely that they can be interpreted in any manner sooner or later you will be right.

Also lets just say he is right. Then the sum of your life is shit, nothing you did was by your own design, your own thought, your own gifts, you were just a puppet in a role and nothing you have done or will do will means anything. Your wife/girlfriend/husband/boyfriend, they are not with you because you are nice, or are a great person they are with you because it was pre-ordained they don't love you it's a script, the same with any children

[Benbrutal]

My prediction is that there will be many craptastic movies, books, mockumentaries, interviews, TV miniseries and other media events starting in late 2011 designed to use the minimal calendar thing to make boatloads of cash by scaring the crap out of the gullible. I think that as "Der Tag" approaches there will be a rising creshendo of babling heads taking both sides; when the media interviews the con people, those who state "Odds are really infinitesmal that anything is going to happen" they will pick the most boring, monotone-voiced, unattractive people they can find with that position. The pros will be represented by attactive, well-spoken people with special effects. Then when it turns out to be nothing the media can say they put out both sides of the story.

Edited to add: Y.T. is back! Huzzah!