The PAW will never happen

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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gothamalleyviper
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by gothamalleyviper » Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:31 am

The PAWs will never happen? Tell that to the people of New Orleans 3 days after Katrina, or NYC at 1640 local time 11 September 2001 AD. On top of this we have more arses then I can count that want to nuke every and any western power.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by raptor » Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:40 pm

I also agree that a PAW as seen in so many movies, is just that, movie fantasy. I think a global catastrophe that wipes out even 10% of the human race in a short time is unlikely in my lifetime. However, I would never say anything is impossible or would never occur. Despite this I personally place the probability of a ZPAW in my lifetime at such a low probability that winning the power ball lottery with one quick pick ticket looks like a sure thing.

Having said that there are many localized disasters that give me serious pause for concern. Natural disasters, large scale fires, civil disturbances, financial panics/catastrophe, chemical spills, terrorist attacks and even widespread pandemics are not only possible but IMHO have a high probability of occurring in any given year (albeit with varying probabilities). There are certainly posters who disagree with this thought pattern. there are even some posters who seem to want a PAW or ZPAW for some strange reason. However, if you read the posts from the long term members and stay out of the Zombie sections like Phil_in_CS suggested, you will find plenty of good and useful information to deal with likely threats.

Most long term members know that preparation includes a lot more than hiking in the woods with an AR-15. I agree some ZS'ers are preoccupied with weapons, but do not confuse a separate hobby of gun collecting with the serious business of disaster preparation.

I personally analyze the threats to me and mine and spend the bulk of my time and resources preparing for the the threats I consider most probable. Zombies do not even show up on the threat profile. Even a possible but low probability NBC threat gets little in the way of funding or time from me. Though I do practice head shots at the pistol range; I do this because it is a effective way to deal with a person wearing body armor, not because I think a Zombie is going to walk in my door.

I spend the bulk of my preparation money and time not on weapons and ammo but things such as food, water, medical supplies and other items that are useful in a multitude of situations.

In closing, NOLA after Katrina was a localized disaster. It was localized to 3 states and impacted only a couple of million people in these states in one way or another. There were less than 2,000 dead from direct effects the storm. A localized disaster can be pretty bad unless you are prepared to deal it.

BTW since I live in NOLA personal and business disaster preparation and the possibility of a forced bug out is not only possible it is very likely to occur within any given hurricane season. Therefore I do take preparation very serious and spend a lot of money on it both personally and professionally. Preparation is not a game to me.
Last edited by raptor on Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by BottomsUp » Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:23 pm

Jvandenhaus wrote:I don't even really care if civilization ends in Colorado Springs, because I live in Denver.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by Dak Kovar » Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:43 pm

Raptor, I agree completely. Further more the preps I have done as far as gear, food, and the like have already paid dividends in the form of taking care of personal emergencies. Case in point, I had to drop what I was doing and leave within 4 hours, drive 450 miles and be gone for two weeks in another state. The truck broke down mid way due to faulty repairs and I had to get a rental. We had a family emergency and I was able to grab my bag and go. I had everything I needed to do what I had to. Had I not had my act together my family would have had more major issues to deal with in addition to a family illness then death. I used my emergency money, credit cards, maps, food, clothes (I keep a travel bag packed as well as my field gear). I used company leave time I had saved and had trained my staff to operate by remote control. All this was done in order to deal with a family emergency.

I live in a wild fire and earthquake area with a few volcanoes that rumble from time to time. I have been forced to evacuate due to fire a couple of times. Being prepared for generals emergencies has served me well. The major part of my preps are to cover these and for camping purposes.

I don't like the 'survivalist' brand as it has bad connotations and does not describe who I am or what I do. I know that most of the people here feel the same way. There are many forums here to dive into. If one spends all of their time in the firearms section, then their perception of ZS will be different than if they were to spend their time in OT or Transportation. Reading some in all the sections gives a better balance of who we think we are. If you are serious about any of this then stay out of the Zombie sections except for entertainment only. That is not ZS though it part of ZS.

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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by doc66 » Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:14 pm

Ummmm.... Let's look at the Dark Ages, shall we? While certain parts of the world florished, Europe, parts of Asia and Africa were in a period of ABSOLUTILY NO INTELLICTUAL GROWTH at all. There was a period of time about 150-200 years where there were not even written languages to speak of (haha). Other than Latin Luminaries, there was nothing. Nada. These lack of achivements included not only the "lack of Latin literature, but also a lack of contemporary written history, a general demographic decline, a limited building activity and material cultural achievements in general" (paraphrased from wikipedia, since they put it so well). Medicine in Europe and the other areas consisted of a) bleeding b) leeches c) weird intake of substances d)death. Local laws depending on the area War Lord and the Church, who supported the Local War Lord, or there was nothing at all.

If that is not a PAW, I'm not sure what would calssify as being one.

Skip forward a few hundred years. Africa can at the moment be considered in a PAW situation, depending on the area, as mentioned before, here in the United States we've had instances of PAW activity, and in various parts of Central and South America over the years we've had nations on the verge of collapse numerous times.

I'm not sure just what you mean by PAW, if you mean a total collapse of civilization as we know it, I doubt we willsee that EVERYWHERE in the world, but there are enough trouble spots on the earth that we could see something similar to the Middle Ages in which large parts of the earth are in decline and chaos. In our global economy, that would affect eveyone in the world to one extent or another.
Last edited by doc66 on Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by jamoni » Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:23 pm

oconnore wrote:To my knowledge, since the beginning of human civilization, civilization has never been completely wiped it out.
Two words:
DARK.
AGES.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by doc66 » Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:47 pm

jamoni wrote:Two words:
DARK.
AGES.

I beat you too it, see my above post...!
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by PaleHorse » Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:48 pm

"Rome" may fall again. You have to prepare for it. The U.S. is a service oriented society. We don't make a whole lot of stuff by hand or basic machinery anymore. Throw in a disaster and we could very well be back in something similar to the Dark Ages. I doubt if other countries would take millions of refugees so you'd have to "survive" in place. The Dark Ages lasted some 600 years. Let's say it lasted 10 years where you live. Those 10 years would suck for you. I'd prepare for it.

I have an AR, but it stays at home. I havent backpacked with an AR since I got out of the army in '95. I'd prefer not to.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by Iprotectmine » Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:53 pm

Most people on this site would probably agree that a PAW scenario is very unlikely. However, I would argue that a PAW scenario is more likely now that is has been in a very long time, in part because disasters that previously would have been contained to a specific area (such as a plague or an economic collapse) have vectors for spreading globally that did not exist previously. The tools we have available for causing widespread destruction are also getting better and/or more available to people who may use them, our reliance on high maintenance infrastructure and energy is greater than it has ever been, the number of people traveling across national borders regularly is probably higher than it has ever been, and our population per square mile is greater than it has ever been. So a PAW scenario is probably very unlikely, but growing more likely over time.

That said, I suspect that most people on this site prepare for a wide variety of disaster scenarios, many of which are likely to occur in regions populated by people who post on this site. There may be a few people here who have a plan composed of "Grab my AR15 and head for the hills," but I suspect that they are a small minority. The broad nature of posts for making survival preparations is one of the strengths of this site. I think that using the zombie metaphor brings a little lightness to the topic that makes survival preparation a little more approachable for a lot of people.

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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by Dave_M » Mon Jun 09, 2008 3:09 pm

So you don't think the PAW will ever happen?

Sweet. Don't prepare for it. Why are you even here then?
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by andygates » Mon Jun 09, 2008 4:11 pm

The dark ages weren't so bad, it's just that there wasn't anything much written about them. It wasn't quite the peasant-tilling-mud that the Victorians painted it as. Even so, the fall of Rome is an object lesson that even the biggest economy and biggest military can and ultimately will fall.

That Mad Max PAW with the football shoulderpads and roaming bands of crazies? Nah, I don't see that as the future. At the most generous, it's a transitional state, into a post-PAW lower-population civilisation. But to get there you have to survive the crazies and the bad hair, and these things take time.

All things change. To thrive, you have to be able to ride the changes.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by Ringo » Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:01 pm

Orders to the helm, mate, I don't understand you.

Along with everyone else who as articulately stated their points of view, I'll toss in mine. The idea of the PAW, to me, is an evolving one. Being in Florida I can tell you that some of us have come close to the PAW, personally. Being a hunter, I've come close to a situation like those often discussed here. Being new in the military, I'm constantly being briefed on the "worst case scenario." I mean no offense, but saying, "event xxxx will never happen," is a great way to end up as a casualty.

Hiking with an AR, by the way, isn't always a terrible idea, if it is legally permitted and you are authorized/licensed to carry the weapon. More to the point - The idea of educating oneself and being actively prepared for a disaster situation of any kind can't really (logically) be construed as foolish. Granted, there is financial investment, time investment, and etc. involved, but the same can be said for anything. PAW prep is the combination of mindset and way of life with the presiding motto of, "preparation is survival." If it never happens in our lifetimes, so be it - but it will happen. History is characterized by conflict and dictated by technology. Sooner or later the two paths will cross. ZS'ers plan on living through it.

But in the sense of localized disaster, you are absolutely correct. Imagine a southern alabama family living 20 miles from town with their closest and only neighbors sixty acres down the road. Well, if a disaster strikes and no one can get to them for a week, week and a half for any reason, I'd say it'd be pretty important for them to have some preparation - even if it is a few extra rounds of ammo, some emergency candles, and a camp stove. Wouldn't you? All of these things fall under the same umbrella. Some people are just more paranoid than others. But us paranoid types like to think of it as "dedicated." :)

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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by ironraven » Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:43 pm

Personally, my preps are not for the PAW. They are for the end of the world as we know it. I know, PAW vs TEOTWAKI sounds a minor bit of semantics. But remember, the death of Elvis, the Beatles on the Tonight Show, transistors, the moon landing, and the invention of the internet were all TEOTWAKI events.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by sludge » Mon Jun 09, 2008 7:57 pm

Man it seems like the paw everyday for me going to work. Only thing is the brain dead zombies on the streets have not started eating one another yet.... give it time though...
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by Kommander » Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:17 pm

I have always found it funny when someone says stuff like "will not survive [a full scale nuclear war] unless you live under a mountain". Casualty estimates for a full nuclear exchange ranged from 25% to 50% of the population. While horrid that still leaves more than a hundred million people left to go about the task of surviving. What about a limited exchange, or even just a few weapons smuggled in and detonated in strategic places. All of these situation would lead to a situation where there is still allot of people left.
oconnore wrote:Is the zombie metaphor having some negative side effects on people's preparation? For example, going hiking with your AR-15 is a great idea in a zombie infestation, but if you tried that in New Orleans, you would have been shot by the National Guard. If you tried it during the Great Depression, you would have found the woods to have been completely stripped clean by other hungry people with rifles.
Wow...this is...wow.

First off I do not think that the National Guard was gunning down every person they saw with a long arm. Also no one needs to see your long arm is it can be prevented. You may be right about "the woods being stripped clean" by others with rifles. At that point your rifles primary purpose is to deter those other "hungry people with rifles" from taking what you do have.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by BlackBear » Tue Jun 10, 2008 2:56 am

Kentucky J wrote:Its not about civilization surviving. Its about you.
This says it all.

It may be true that civilization survives. If we experience an incredible downfall (insurrection, economical downfall, invasion, nuclear war, whatever) likely our civilization, maybe even our government, will survive. However, to paraphrase Stephen King, when the trains aren't running on time and all the ducks aren't in a row; when the power is out and the food in your fridge is rotting, and the supermarket is rationing barely enough to stay alive; gangs are everywhere and even some of the law enforcement thinks they're just "law"; the pharmacies are out of your asthma medication, or you can't get extra test strips for your glucose meter; when you have a 1-year-old and suddenly there's no more diapers or wipes on the shelves; maybe you don't have a kid, but you can't even find enough toilet paper to wipe your own ass; when all this happens it may not be the end of the world, but I gay-ron-damn-tee it'll seem like your world is ending.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by Boris » Tue Jun 10, 2008 9:23 am

I think some people go a little overboard, but it's their money and time.

I'm not expecting any zombies, but I think as a culture we've gotten away from self-reliance. It's a good feeling to know you have food, water, and other necessary supplies in case something bad happened. To know that I don't have to rush to the store in a panic like 95% of the local population if some bad shit went down, and deal with skyrocketing prices and short tempers.

About the worst thing I've gone through was an ice storm that cut our power for a few days. It was actually kind of enjoyable. The only disasters I could see happening with any likelihood are a tornado, blizzard, or flood.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by DFWMTX » Tue Jun 10, 2008 9:56 am

I believe civil unrest and societal breakdown is more possible than a full-blown apocalyptic event leading to a post-apocalyptic world. So certain parts of preparing for the zombie-pocalypse also help me deal with preperation for civil unrest and societal breakdown. I see riots happening as more likely than the Earth getting hit by an asteroid.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by Jamie » Tue Jun 10, 2008 10:23 am

Black Death Squad, a preparedness forum in Europe, had a similar thread started in the early 1300's, just before 50% of the population of Europe died due to Yersinia Pestis...

Similarly, there was an internet forum group in the Tunguska region of Russia, they prepared for large object impacts until one of their members told them that it wasn't worth the effort (in the spring of 1908)...

Need I go on?

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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by dogbane » Tue Jun 10, 2008 10:39 am

I have this taped to the wall over my desk:
Force Majeure. The provisions hereof are subject to the following limitation: if by reason of acts of God; strikes, lockouts or other industrial disturbances; acts of public enemies; orders or other acts of any kind of the Government of the United States or of the State, or any other sovereign entity or body politic, or any department, Authority, political subdivision, court or official of any of them, or any civil or military authority; insurrections; riots; epidemics; landslides; lightning; earthquakes, volcanoes; fires; hurricanes; tornadoes; storms; floods; washouts; droughts; arrests; restraint of government and people; civil disturbances; explosions, breakage or accident to machinery; partial or entire failure of utilities; zombie apocalypse; or any cause or event not reasonably within control of the Parties...
If contract lawyers prepare for these contingencies, so should we.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by Valarius » Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:04 pm

Seriously? They have "zombie apocolypse" listed as a provision? Nice. :D
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by dogbane » Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:07 pm

Valarius wrote:Seriously? They have "zombie apocolypse" listed as a provision? Nice. :D
I added that one. :lol:
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by razi » Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:52 pm

The 'zombiesOMG' is actually a subtle tactic to weed out the morons and trolls. If you'll notice, anyone who takes it too seriously usually leaves.

"Zombie Squad" won the initial vote for the group's title anyway, beating out "Katana Squad" 23-12.
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Re: The PAW will never happen

Post by MVegas » Tue Jun 10, 2008 4:30 pm

You guys above beat me to it on the dark ages. A fantastic example....one of many. One could rationally (and correctly) argue that we already live in a PPPPAW. We're just trying to be prepared for the next one.
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