2020 Hurricane Season

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

Moderator: ZS Global Moderators

User avatar
RickOShea
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:24 pm
Location: Gulf Coast, AL

2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Tue May 12, 2020 12:31 pm

National Hurricane Center has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook this morning for the Atlantic basin.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop during this weekend over the Atlantic Ocean a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through Sunday. It has a 50 percent chance of formation during the next five days.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by NHC at 9 p.m. tonight, or earlier, if necessary.



Image
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

Image ............................................................................................................................................................................................Image


User avatar
RickOShea
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:24 pm
Location: Gulf Coast, AL

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Sat May 16, 2020 10:33 pm

Image


Image
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

Image ............................................................................................................................................................................................Image

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 6459
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Sat May 16, 2020 11:54 pm

I have no idea how I missed this thread when I made the dupe.


User avatar
raptor2
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 895
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:48 pm

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:59 pm

Heads up GOM folks! It is still early but by Wednesday the path should be clear.


Image
Duco Ergo Sum


raptor2 is the new profile name for raptor.
memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=8190

User avatar
RickOShea
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:24 pm
Location: Gulf Coast, AL

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:06 pm

Image
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

Image ............................................................................................................................................................................................Image

User avatar
raptor2
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 895
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:48 pm

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:29 pm

I am still confused as to how this thing is going to get from Mexico across the GOM to LA by Sunday that means either a big ass storm (size wise) or a really fast storm. I just do not see on the weather map what is providing this motivation. Anyone help me there?
Duco Ergo Sum


raptor2 is the new profile name for raptor.
memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=8190

boskone
* * * * *
Posts: 1624
Joined: Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:07 pm
Location: Aggieland-ish

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by boskone » Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:21 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:29 pm
I am still confused as to how this thing is going to get from Mexico across the GOM to LA by Sunday that means either a big ass storm (size wise) or a really fast storm. I just do not see on the weather map what is providing this motivation. Anyone help me there?
High water surface temps and a pair of high-pressure systems.

User avatar
raptor2
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 895
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:48 pm

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:22 pm

boskone wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:21 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:29 pm
I am still confused as to how this thing is going to get from Mexico across the GOM to LA by Sunday that means either a big ass storm (size wise) or a really fast storm. I just do not see on the weather map what is providing this motivation. Anyone help me there?
High water surface temps and a pair of high-pressure systems.
The water temp will not make it move. It is over land and the high pressure systems I see are not that strong. This thing is supposed to sprint 600 miles in 48 hours That is a steady 12 to 13 knots for 48 hours.

The good news is that if it moves that fast then it won't have time to strengthen as much and speed will likewise hamoer development.
Duco Ergo Sum


raptor2 is the new profile name for raptor.
memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=8190

User avatar
raptor2
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 895
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:48 pm

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:20 pm

Forecasters are still expecting that any intensification of Cristobal will be limited by a wide layer of dry air in the mid-level of the atmosphere on its western side, and by some upper-level wind shear.

“Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast,” Pasch said. “The strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed to the east of the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone.”

Maximum sustained winds of 60 mph are expected at landfall, forecasters said, which would make it a tropical storm. A Category 1 hurricane has winds of at least 74 mph.
Cris is starting to move north but the conditions are mercifully not favorable for great intensification. Still heads up GOM!
Duco Ergo Sum


raptor2 is the new profile name for raptor.
memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=8190

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 6459
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:34 pm


User avatar
Langenator
* * *
Posts: 745
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 7:20 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: 28 Days Later, Zombieland, Shaun of the Dead (and Larry Correia's Monster Hunter series if they ever make them into movies)
Location: Aggieland, TX

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Langenator » Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:37 pm

The latest from Weather Underground's Category 6: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/lopsi ... gulf-coast.

I live a couple hours north of Houston. Apparently the main effect here is going to be to push temps up over the next few days - forecast of 100 degrees on Tuesday.
Fortunis Fortus Paratus

boskone
* * * * *
Posts: 1624
Joined: Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:07 pm
Location: Aggieland-ish

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by boskone » Sun Jun 07, 2020 1:32 pm

Langenator wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 12:37 pm
The latest from Weather Underground's Category 6: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/lopsi ... gulf-coast.

I live a couple hours north of Houston. Apparently the main effect here is going to be to push temps up over the next few days - forecast of 100 degrees on Tuesday.
I knew I should have mowed yesterday. :|

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 6459
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Sun Jun 07, 2020 5:20 pm


User avatar
raptor2
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 895
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:48 pm

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by raptor2 » Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:54 pm

Just a bit of rain and wind here in NOLA. I did have the power go out for 30 minutes but beyond that and bunch of leaves and twigs so far all is OK here in NOLA.
Duco Ergo Sum


raptor2 is the new profile name for raptor.
memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=8190

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 6459
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:39 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:54 pm
Just a bit of rain and wind here in NOLA. I did have the power go out for 30 minutes but beyond that and bunch of leaves and twigs so far all is OK here in NOLA.
That's good. Our Wx people have Cris pushing due North. My might have heavy rains here Tuesday/Wednesday.

User avatar
RickOShea
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:24 pm
Location: Gulf Coast, AL

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:52 pm

A little over 4 inches of rain and a few 35 mph wind gusts, so far.
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

Image ............................................................................................................................................................................................Image

User avatar
RickOShea
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:24 pm
Location: Gulf Coast, AL

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:55 pm

NOAA - Across the tropics on this Wednesday evening, a well-defined tropical wave is located about 425 miles east of the Windward Islands, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although further development is not expected due to dry air and adverse upper-level winds, some areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands on Thursday and Thursday night while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.


Image
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

Image ............................................................................................................................................................................................Image

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 6459
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Jul 11, 2020 11:33 am

It's a Wikipedia kind-of-a-day: Severe Weather Information Centre

Also: Storm Track

MPMalloy
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 6459
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 2:48 am

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Jul 13, 2020 5:41 am

From The Des Moines Register: City of Waukee asks public to help conserve water - Right now, the city is just asking people to reduce outdoor water usage.

User avatar
RickOShea
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:24 pm
Location: Gulf Coast, AL

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:22 am

Okay, now back on-topic....



NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center - A tropical wave is located on this Sunday morning over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. It's expected to move west-northwestward during the next several days and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday.

This disturbance is currently producing disorganized shower activity, but environmental conditions are expected to become at least marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or Thursday. It has a near zero chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next five days.




Image
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

Image ............................................................................................................................................................................................Image

User avatar
RickOShea
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:24 pm
Location: Gulf Coast, AL

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:51 pm

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center - On this Tuesday morning over the Atlantic basin, there's a tropical wave producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, South Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. It has a low (30 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a medium (40 percent) chance during the next five days.

Elsewhere, the showers and thunderstorms in association with a low pressure system, located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, have become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions should limit additional development. It has a medium (60 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days.




Image
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

Image ............................................................................................................................................................................................Image

User avatar
RickOShea
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 9427
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:24 pm
Location: Gulf Coast, AL

Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by RickOShea » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:40 pm

Update:

NHC is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Seven, centered at 5 p.m. AST over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about 1185 miles (1905 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and about 1420 miles (2285 km) east of the southern Windward Islands. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected to take place tonight and Wednesday, and that motion should continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast to occur during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. When that occurs, it will be named Gonzalo.




Image
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

Image ............................................................................................................................................................................................Image

Post Reply

Return to “Contingency Planning & Preparation”