The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Topics in this category pertain to planning. Discussions include how to prepare yourself, your family and your community for catastrophes and what you plan to do when they hit you.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RoneKiln » Sun Jan 19, 2020 1:37 pm

https://www.amazon.com/Upheaval-Turning ... 925&sr=8-1

This came across my Kindle alert for being on sale a few minutes ago, and I thought it applied to this topic. I just grabbed it (I am a sucker for kindle sales) but have not read it. I know the author is highly regarded though. I imagine some of the underlying principles discussed could apply to supporting any organization through periods of upheaval.

I also tend to think culture is more powerful than policy. You can get a long ways on bad policy with a good culture underlying it. I can't get anywhere with even the best policies if I have a bad, toxic culture underlying it. I've found this time and again in the workplace, and I think it is magnified on a national level. I might not be able to magically transform a nation's culture, but I do contribute to it every single day. So I do my best to rolemodel healthy ways to overcome these problems currently plaguing my nation's culture and increasing the risk of civil war.

Anyone else come across resources for overcoming these sort of problems on any organizational level?
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:11 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:44 pm
Stercutus wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:34 pm


There have been a number of thefts of large quantities of explosives lately and it making law enforcement nervous.
This is too bad. Is there any ability to share whether military or civilian explosives? I'm just vulgerly curious. No real prepping reason. I don't expect the source of explosives would change the effects of those explosives. I also don't expect it would be hard to import those through the usual smuggling channels.
This one is out there.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/01/suspect ... iness.html

It would not seem newsworthy until...

https://www.waaytv.com/content/news/Hun ... 42581.html
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:12 am


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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by TacAir » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:27 pm

It would appear that folks blowing each other up produces statistics.

These numbers are tracked by our Friends at the ATF, via a website, they share some of that data publicly. (If you are the 'right' people)

https://www.atf.gov/explosives/us-bomb-data-center

olg.justice.gov gives us - The ATF received about 1,800 reports of arson and 700 reports of bombing

Fining current (<5 years old) data on bombing & arson for hire is difficult, or my search skills are deficient..

What I did find was intersecting (example: https://www.interfire.org/res_file/nfpaj_ar.asp) but lacked details needed for any kind of real planning.

The FBI stats (https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s) run to 2019 - but the data has been proven to be flawed - in places very much so - owing to political pressure from local authorities.

(See https://marylandreporter.com/2019/12/29 ... tatistics/ -- which is why I don't trust 'national' crime stats)

Then there is the so-called "Freguson Effect" (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45236.pdf) which can cause an anomaly in 'crime stats' for selected areas.

By now you are likely to be asking "WTF Tac - what are you saying?"
There is an old saw - "There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics"

I've posted more than once the US is currently in a low-level Civil War (you pick the number) as shown by violent crime. Sadly because of games played by politicians, cops and reporting agencies, using published 'official' data gives you little real information useful for planning - or trying to find someplace "safe" to live.

Since nature abhors a vacuum (and there is money to be made) enter private data services - such as NeighborhoodScout. This outfit provides the most comprehensive database of hyper-local real estate data available today. The platform is owned and operated by Location, Inc., builders of location-based Big Data and intelligence for the Fortune 1000 and beyond.

BTW - this isn't a paid endorsement - this is just one of many non-Government companies that deal in crime stats. More importantly, they go as far as to tell you if a neighborhood or city is a crime-ridden hell-hole.
Examples - Tucson Az - is 'safer' than 3% of other US cities - IOW - lots of crime, no surprise.

Anchorage is safer that 2% of other US cities - since Anchorage is the most violent cities on the West coast - these stats add up for me.

How about Paola KS? Well, the folks at NS say it is safer than 22% of other US cites - despite only 4 violent crimes reported. Ya. Find another site listing the 'safest cities' in the US - and then plug those locations into any of these real-estate based services and - surprise. The data falls apart pretty quickly.

For planning, look at factors other than reported crime stats - jobs, cost of housing, location (distance to large population centers) - when you find a possible candidate, then start your due diligence.

One quick check I use is [Name of potential city/town + gang shooting] as a search string.
Example "Moses Lake gang shooting" BTW - Moses Lake is a small ag town south of Spokane.
try it for yourself.

It should be no surprise that gangs - esp drug funded gang activity, is found just about everywhere.

For fun, there are places with zero - or nearly zero crime. Reported crime that is....
https://www.safewise.com/safest-towns-america/

There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics. Keep this in mind as you travel the web....
TacAir - I'd rather be a disappointed pessimist than a horrified optimist
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by NT2C » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:44 pm

TacAir wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:27 pm
It would appear that folks blowing each other up produces statistics.

These numbers are tracked by our Friends at the ATF, via a website, they share some of that data publicly. (If you are the 'right' people)

https://www.atf.gov/explosives/us-bomb-data-center

olg.justice.gov gives us - The ATF received about 1,800 reports of arson and 700 reports of bombing

Fining current (<5 years old) data on bombing & arson for hire is difficult, or my search skills are deficient..
Annnnnnd... This is how you get on The List

(though, truth be told, if I'm not already on at least a dozen Lists then some people just aren't doing their jobs)
Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

Sic quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit; occidentis telum est - Seneca the Younger, Epistles

We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the Courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who would pervert the Constitution. - A. Lincoln

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by flybynight » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:36 pm

How about Paola KS? Well, the folks at NS say it is safer than 22% of other US cites - despite only 4 violent crimes reported. Ya. Find another site listing the 'safest cities' in the US - and then plug those locations into any of these real-estate based services and - surprise. The data falls apart pretty quickly.
Too be fair, Kansas , much like most states has a meth problem. And the southeast area of the state is a known meth addiction strong hold. I have friends who moved from that area that say ALL their friends are meth heads now. Regularly see nice properties for sale down there , with nice homes and acreage for cheap. Trouble is you are probably going to end up shooting people ( plural times ) to keep your lawn mower from being stolen out of your barn to support their drug habit. I don't want to have to survive in a armed enclave, before the apocalypse begins

This is some thing to take into account for BOL. When you're sitting in your car on a dirt road with nothing but prairie surrounding you . Not a house in miles. And a sign on the road warning to look out for meth labs
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:23 pm

The Hunt Release Date and Trailer for Controversial Universal and Blumhouse Thriller

https://www.denofgeek.com/us/movies/the ... n-lindelof

Universal and Blumhouse's controversial thriller, The Hunt, is back on the release schedule after being pulled last summer.

The Hunt was, at one point, in danger of going the way of The Interview. Just as Sony once delayed (and eventually canceled) its controversial North Korea comedy, Universal ended up delaying its own controversial thriller. However, it now appears that The Hunt will fare better than that film.

Back in August, Universal Pictures pulled the Damon Lindelof and Blumhouse-produced The Hunt from its original September 27, 2019 release date. The move came on the heels of two mass shootings in El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio, and also some vague political posturing from the President. Yet, with things having seemingly settled in the news cycle some six months later, the film has managed to avoid its speculated fate of being sent to On Demand purgatory, and is now back on track for a theatrical release.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouVxJOyFVKk

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RonnyRonin » Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:04 pm

TacAir wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:27 pm

I've posted more than once the US is currently in a low-level Civil War (you pick the number) as shown by violent crime.
I'd like to tease this out a bit, as I hear this somewhat often. I've heard several people making this claim that simply moved the goalpost so far on the definition of "civil war" that it would include any nation state in history, at all times. I don't want to assume that is what you mean.

Do you mean that:
1) the *amount* of violent crime currently going on in the US is abnormally high for a developed/western/modern(take your pick of adjective) country, and thus moves it into the status of civil war
2) the amount of violent crime in the US today is abnormally high for the US historically, as in more prevolant then it used to be, and has thus moved into the status of civil war (if so, when did it cross the line?)
3) the *kind* or *source* of the violent crime is such that it makes it fit the definition of a civil war more then run-of-the-mill violent crime (for instance the prevalence of organized groups makes it a civil war, whereas if it were merely a bunch of individuals it would not).
4) something else all together

I'm always resistant to a definition of civil war that merely includes the baseline level of violence that exists in all large societies, as it would make the term next to useless. I also haven't researched violent crime beyond the local level much, but was under the impression its been generally trending downward. As you mentioned this is a complex problem that could easily be manipulated by reporting, but even if it were trending upward I'd want to know where the line is between a society with crime that is not in a civil war, vs a society with crime that is in a civil war (low level or otherwise)
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by majorhavoc » Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:51 pm

I question whether the incidence of violent crime, in and of itself, is indicative of civil war.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RonnyRonin » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:39 pm

majorhavoc wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:51 pm
I question whether the incidence of violent crime, in and of itself, is indicative of civil war.
I'm not sure if you mean this in the positive or negative sense, could you expand?
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by NT2C » Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:56 pm

majorhavoc wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:51 pm
I question whether the incidence of violent crime, in and of itself, is indicative of civil war.
Civil war, by definition, is a violent crime against the state.
Nonsolis Radios Sediouis Fulmina Mitto. - USN Gunner's Mate motto

Sic quemadmodum gladius neminem occidit; occidentis telum est - Seneca the Younger, Epistles

We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the Courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who would pervert the Constitution. - A. Lincoln

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by TacAir » Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:58 am

RonnyRonin wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 10:04 pm
TacAir wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:27 pm

I've posted more than once the US is currently in a low-level Civil War (you pick the number) as shown by violent crime.
I'd like to tease this out a bit, as I hear this somewhat often. I've heard several people making this claim that simply moved the goalpost so far on the definition of "civil war" that it would include any nation state in history, at all times. I don't want to assume that is what you mean.

Do you mean that:
1) the *amount* of violent crime currently going on in the US is abnormally high for a developed/western/modern(take your pick of adjective) country, and thus moves it into the status of civil war
2) the amount of violent crime in the US today is abnormally high for the US historically, as in more prevolant then it used to be, and has thus moved into the status of civil war (if so, when did it cross the line?)
3) the *kind* or *source* of the violent crime is such that it makes it fit the definition of a civil war more then run-of-the-mill violent crime (for instance the prevalence of organized groups makes it a civil war, whereas if it were merely a bunch of individuals it would not).
4) something else all together

I'm always resistant to a definition of civil war that merely includes the baseline level of violence that exists in all large societies, as it would make the term next to useless. I also haven't researched violent crime beyond the local level much, but was under the impression its been generally trending downward. As you mentioned this is a complex problem that could easily be manipulated by reporting, but even if it were trending upward I'd want to know where the line is between a society with crime that is not in a civil war, vs a society with crime that is in a civil war (low level or otherwise)
4. I'm on a tablet right now so
4 crime is an expression of a larger mindset. Where high crime used to be contained, a bad word choice...to limited areas of a city...it is now citywide in many area.

Fort Apache just isn't in the Bronx any more.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by NT2C » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:14 am

TacAir wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 1:58 am
Fort Apache just isn't in the Bronx any more.
Having lived there (NYC) at the time... it wasn't even when it was, if that makes sense to you.

ETA: What I mean by that is that even when Ft. Apache was a thing, and I remember it well as I had friends in that precinct, it wasn't the only place in the US with such conditions. L.A., Detroit, Chicago, they all had similar problems.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by TacAir » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:19 pm

Certainly. I used Fort Apache as a well-known placeholder in stead of several 100 words. I think folks got the idea.

Now that I am on a full sized keyboard - I can - hopefully, give an explanation that Ronny R can see the point of...

I've parsed on this sub-set of the discussion before - on this thread. Perhaps a bit of back reading may be in order....

Anyway - to the task at hand.

To wit - Civili war is defined as (broadly speaking)
an intrastate war in polemology, is a war between organized groups within the same state or country. The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region or to change government policies.

What is not defined above are the additional words that cover the means of that change - I've often used the phrase "By what means necessary"

We see today disparate groups within the US that openly advocate for the overthrow of the existing Government. Other groups do more than advocate - they set things afire, shoot police and so on.

Please understand - this kind of activity has been part of the overall 'dialog' of times past. - Examples include the Weather Underground, Black panthers and SLA, just to name a few. As you go back in time, it takes little effort of name other, organized. groups who traded in violence and death.

I see what is presented **today*8 is that level of violence and general WROL attitude showing up in larger segents of the population and i many geographic areas of the Nation. You could call it insurrection, or a civil war - albeit one at a low level of continued violence and destruction. This part-time war isn't helped by the current, and criminal, large-scale population displacement currently underway....

I'm by education and training (Certified Disaster Planner) the kind of person to look at what is in front of me and devise Response, Recovery and Restoration plans.

Now I make my $$ as a technical writer, so that planning effort is focused solely on my family.

I have pointed out on this board, more than once - that organized criminal gangs outnumber both the Police and military combat (not logistics) foces were have today. I see this situationt as a problem that exists and is growing.

The real question is what will you do (personally) about the situation - if you even see it as a problem.

So to the question posed by Ronny R - I'd say #4.

As gangs become more organized and gain access to greater resources, we - IMO - face the same problem currently tearing up Mexico. This is where gangs are the de facto Government in some 80% of that country. Further South, the problem is as acute and also growing.

I'm doing what I can for my family - I hope you are doing the same.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RonnyRonin » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:34 am

TacAir wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:19 pm

So to the question posed by Ronny R - I'd say #4.

If I'm reading you correctly I think what your are describing is close to what I was trying to describe in #3, just badly. I'm reading that what you are saying is because the violence is coming from organized groups and with specific goals in mind it fits the definition, and isn't just a bunch of unaffiliated folks doing violent crimes for personal enrichment.


TacAir wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:19 pm

To wit - Civili war is defined as (broadly speaking)
an intrastate war in polemology, is a war between organized groups within the same state or country. The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region or to change government policies.
I have only an amateur spit-ball at my own definition of a civil war, but it aligns almost entirely with this, except the last part. once again, I have no serious study, only my own intuitions to rely on, but this seems to broaden the scope of what constitutes a civil war to include nearly anything. Any Civil War I know of (admittedly few) had secession or full on overthrow in mind, I can't think of many historical precedents for "just change this law or policy and we will put our guns down."
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by woodsghost » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:03 am

A "war" is between governments in separate countries.

A "civil war" is a war between factions within a country.

In order to make it into the more reputable "civil war" databases you generally need 1000 battlefield deaths in 1 year too. And only the years with 1000 battlefield deaths are counted.

So how does one define"battlefield deaths?" I would look up the Correlates of War site and find their list of definitions. I'm just on a mobile platform at the moment.

One can argue with these definitions and choices, but researchers have to start *someplace.*
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:31 pm





Pastor Fox make excellent points, imo. Nothing new, but they bear repeating. Also, Liberty Doll's latest vid is worth a look, I'm not posting as it might be judged to be p-o-l-i-t-i-c-a-l

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by boskone » Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:14 pm

RonnyRonin wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:34 am
Any Civil War I know of (admittedly few) had secession or full on overthrow in mind, I can't think of many historical precedents for "just change this law or policy and we will put our guns down."
I think policy change civil wars are theoretically possible, but by the time it gets to active and at least semi-organized violence the sides are past the point of easy reconciliation.

It's really hard to get masses of people into a violent frame of mind.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor » Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:15 pm

The alternative to a civil war is frequently a "divorce" in this case secession from one state either into a new state or an existing state. Neither of which are easy without agreement of all parties ...and good luck with that.

There have been long term ongoing movements in many areas.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... -escape-b/

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:52 pm

raptor wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 1:15 pm
The alternative to a civil war is frequently a "divorce" in this case secession from one state either into a new state or an existing state. Neither of which are easy without agreement of all parties ...and good luck with that.

There have been long term ongoing movements in many areas.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... -escape-b/
Lists of active separatist movements

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by TacAir » Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:28 pm

RonnyRonin wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:34 am
TacAir wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:19 pm

So to the question posed by Ronny R - I'd say #4.

If I'm reading you correctly I think what your are describing is close to what I was trying to describe in #3, just badly. I'm reading that what you are saying is because the violence is coming from organized groups and with specific goals in mind it fits the definition, and isn't just a bunch of unaffiliated folks doing violent crimes for personal enrichment.


TacAir wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:19 pm

To wit - Civili war is defined as (broadly speaking)
an intrastate war in polemology, is a war between organized groups within the same state or country. The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region or to change government policies.
I have only an amateur spit-ball at my own definition of a civil war, but it aligns almost entirely with this, except the last part. once again, I have no serious study, only my own intuitions to rely on, but this seems to broaden the scope of what constitutes a civil war to include nearly anything. Any Civil War I know of (admittedly few) had secession or full on overthrow in mind, I can't think of many historical precedents for "just change this law or policy and we will put our guns down."
Too young to remember the 60s Civil Rights movement? The anti-draft riots?
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RonnyRonin » Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:07 am

TacAir wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:28 pm

Too young to remember the 60s Civil Rights movement? The anti-draft riots?
My point exactly, to call either a Civil War sounds absurd to my ears, but we have fundamentally different definitions so we are unlikely to agree to that point.

As for the former, it was my impression the majority of the violence was on the part of those looking to KEEP policies in place rather then change them, and the small groups of armed and violent change seekers were actually avowed secessionists or revolutionaries, even if they would admit their goals unrealistic. But more to my point did those that were actually armed and fighting lay down their arms when the policy changed? If it does count as Civil War I'd say its precisely because their goals were much bigger then a simple policy change.


I like Woodsghosts addition of minimum numbers, they may be inherently arbitrary but that could go a long way to weeding out small events that also stretch the definition. A Sovereign Citizen attacking a police officer over a traffic ticket is somewhat of a secessionist act, but to call it a civil war is a bit absurd. Similarly I'm sure many cults have made secessionist bids over the years that don't bear labeling the 27th or 45th American Civil War.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by TacAir » Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:44 am

RonnyRonin wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:07 am
TacAir wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:28 pm

Too young to remember the 60s Civil Rights movement? The anti-draft riots?
My point exactly, to call either a Civil War sounds absurd to my ears, but we have fundamentally different definitions so we are unlikely to agree to that point.

As for the former, it was my impression the majority of the violence was on the part of those looking to KEEP policies in place rather then change them, and the small groups of armed and violent change seekers were actually avowed secessionists or revolutionaries, even if they would admit their goals unrealistic. But more to my point did those that were actually armed and fighting lay down their arms when the policy changed? If it does count as Civil War I'd say its precisely because their goals were much bigger then a simple policy change.


I like Woodsghosts addition of minimum numbers, they may be inherently arbitrary but that could go a long way to weeding out small events that also stretch the definition. A Sovereign Citizen attacking a police officer over a traffic ticket is somewhat of a secessionist act, but to call it a civil war is a bit absurd. Similarly I'm sure many cults have made secessionist bids over the years that don't bear labeling the 27th or 45th American Civil War.
Thoese wee early examples of **organized"" violent behavior. Some say funded by the KGB. Most certainly seeking to overthrow the sitting power structure.

Today, those **organized & violent** groups have proliferated, and not just criminal gangs. Many espouse political aims (assumed from their slogans & postings) and some are OR might be splinter groups within established political groups (thin ice here).


Backing away from that, look again at gang activity - and look at those growing gangs as a nascent Government-in-formation - example, Hell's Angels who have a lock on much of the drug trade in some areas, the spill over of Mexican cartels, who are - in Mexico - acting like a Government entity in as much as they make and enforce whatever 'law' exists.

I'll stop here. This is one of those either you see the problem or you don't.
No issue for me, as I only do planning fro my family. Good luck with yours.

Remember, I'm the guy that would much rather be a disappointed pessimist than a horrified optimist.

Can things deteriorate? Certainly and I am assuming they will, owing to several outside factors and funding sources. The real question is how bad and how fast. That - I suppose - is up to the reader to decide, we can see many examples in front of us to day.
Fast - the Balkans.
Slow - the ongoing train wreck of Central and South America (you can pick from the worst of the lot).
Ongoing - Mexico. & parts of the urban US.

Now, I can only hope my little port in the coming storm will be sufficient for my children and grandchildren to come out more or less whole on the other side.

As aside, the LDS have an interesting bit of mythology/storytelling telling in their books. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadianton_robbers - this had a focus on a secret criminal society. This secret society grows in both size and violence to the point of destroying a civilization -- as I read the story on line.

I find it interesting as the initial work was written/published in the early 1800s, yet postulated a sophisticated criminal society, much like the Mafia of old.... My point - the notion of 'gangs are bad' has been around a long time.
TacAir - I'd rather be a disappointed pessimist than a horrified optimist
**All my books ** some with a different view of the "PAW". Check 'em out.
Adventures in rice storage//Mod your Esbit for better stability

MPMalloy
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:34 pm


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