14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

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absinthe beginner
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14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:02 am

‘The most alarming message is not that these 14 choke points exist, but that the danger of something going wrong is extremely high – and rising by the year’

http://www.scmp.com/business/global-eco ... ort-chains

As the share of the world’s population with insufficient food supply has fallen from 52 per cent in 1965 to 3 per cent in 2005, most gains have come not through improved food production at home and self-sufficiency, but through increased trade; nearly 1 billion people worldwide now rely on international trade to meet their food needs.

This has created crucial “choke points” across the world – a total of 14 in all – where, if anything goes wrong, millions will go hungry and even starve.

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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by TacAir » Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:43 am

Interesting post - thanks -

(yawn)

If I lived in China, I suppose it would be something else to worry about. With China, it's a race to the bottom. What is going to kill you first - the horribly polluted water, the horribly polluted air or the adulterated food....

North America (US + Canada) is not just a net exporter of food, they are THE exporter of food. Wheat, corn or soy, we do it all. Choke points to Asia collapsing only means the fat-cat AgCorp pigs might lose some bloated profits if the ships stop running....

Loss of FedGov subsidy the the AgCorp is a bigger short-term threat to food supplies to foreign markets than these choke points

Folks should really take a hard look at who is a net importer of food, and then ask - is there a critical product or service provided by (insert 3rd world hellhole here) that I cannot find elsewhere?

North America could be self-sufficient in energy, is a net exporter of food and major manufacturing goods right now. What the future might bring, well, that's an open question.

But since you are reading this little missive on a board that pushes being ready for the ZA, you are likely taking steps to take care of yourself...
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by teotwaki » Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:46 am

I agree with TacAir that the U.S. would not have to worry about food chokepoints. What came to me next was that if other nations collapsed due to food problems how would we be impacted?
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by norcalprep » Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:11 am

Maybe this is a little off topic as the original topic is regarding worldwide food transport, but what about internally within the US (or wherever you may be in the world)?

I wonder what kind of chokepoints are in the continental US? No need to imagine a scenario as extreme as Forstchen's "One Second After", but loss of profits for agriculture companies that may be running with very thin margins may not survive, or maybe even those that are dependent on exports as the main source of income. There will still be some cascade effects felt within a country/region that is not directly involved in export.

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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by raptor » Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:23 am

This is an interesting article.

Speaking from one of the aforementioned choke points I would also note that a a large % of US refinery capacity as well as oil & gas domestic E&P activity (mainly the P part of that lately) is the GOM and MS River. So in addition to food being impacted this likewise would be impacted if this chokepoint was affected.

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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by TacAir » Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:04 am

norcalprep wrote:Maybe this is a little off topic as the original topic is regarding worldwide food transport, but what about internally within the US (or wherever you may be in the world)?

I wonder what kind of chokepoints are in the continental US? No need to imagine a scenario as extreme as Forstchen's "One Second After", but loss of profits for agriculture companies that may be running with very thin margins may not survive, or maybe even those that are dependent on exports as the main source of income. There will still be some cascade effects felt within a country/region that is not directly involved in export.
Image

The United States produces and sells a wide variety of agricultural products across the Nation. In terms of sales value, California leads the country as the largest producer of agricultural products (crops and livestock), accounting for almost 11 percent of the national total, based on the 2012 Census of Agriculture. Iowa, Texas, Nebraska, and Minnesota round out the top five agricultural-producing States, with those five representing more than a third of U.S. agricultural-output value.

A nation-wide truckers strike would bring the grocery industry to its knees in very short order.

The difference being food production vice food processing and movement. The one key to all of this is the 'trucking' industry - either fleet or indies, all move food.

For rail, the FedGov gives us this blurb-
Today, the U.S. freight rail network is widely considered one of the most dynamic freight systems in the world. The $60 billion industry consists of 140,000 rail miles operated by seven Class I railroads (railroads with operating revenues of $433.2 million or more).
There are:
21 regional railroads, and
510 "local" railroads.

Not only does the 140,000 mile system move more freight than any other freight rail system worldwide but it also provides 221,000 jobs across the country and numerous public benefits including reductions in road congestion, highway fatalities, fuel consumption and greenhouse gases, logistics costs, and public infrastructure maintenance costs.
(https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0362) very information packed site, odd for the .gov types.

Money quote - "Since each person in the U.S. requires the movement of approximately 40 tons of freight every year" BTW - this includes coal.

So, widespread railroad strike? Not going to happen, the Feds passed laws against that a long time ago - The Railway Labor Act is a United States federal law...that governs labor relations in the railroad and airline industries. The Act, passed in 1926 and amended in 1934 and 1936, seeks to substitute bargaining, arbitration and mediation for strikes as a means of resolving labor disputes.

There is some history behind this:

The Great Railroad Strike of 1877 lasted for six weeks and was eventually put down with the intervention of federal troops.

Congress later passed the Arbitration Act of 1888, which authorized the creation of arbitration panels with the power to investigate the causes of labor disputes and to issue non-binding arbitration awards. The Act was a complete failure: only one panel was ever convened under the Act, and that one, in the case of the 1894 Pullman Strike, issued its report only after the strike had been ended by a federal court injunction backed by federal troops.

Some may see a pattern here....
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by williaty » Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:08 am

norcalprep wrote:Maybe this is a little off topic as the original topic is regarding worldwide food transport, but what about internally within the US (or wherever you may be in the world)?

I wonder what kind of chokepoints are in the continental US? No need to imagine a scenario as extreme as Forstchen's "One Second After", but loss of profits for agriculture companies that may be running with very thin margins may not survive, or maybe even those that are dependent on exports as the main source of income. There will still be some cascade effects felt within a country/region that is not directly involved in export.
Look for the chokepoints on oil (and boy are there a lot of them!). The Ag industry runs on crude. Lots of oil embodied in the tires and wires and plastic panels on the farm equipment. Lots of oil refined into diesel to move all the ag equipment around the fields. Lots of fertilizers that have significant embodied crude as well. So anything that harms our ability to get oil (real oil, not bullshit oil sand/oil tar shit) into the US, refine it into the necessary products, and distribute it to the end users knocks out our food supply as well.

Not to mention that almost all of those made-from-oil pieces of farm equipment are made partially or wholly of foreign-sourced parts (which require oil and ports to get to the US and then more oil to deliver to the end users).

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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by The Twizzler » Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:22 am

The US can't be starved to death by anyone. You might have limited choices but you won't starve. When it comes to oil then it gets hairy. It's not just that we produce less than we need but also that we are obligated to provide fuel to some countries in the event of an oil crisis. Now when I say oil crisis I am really talking about war with the major powers. Israel, Japan, South Korea all have agreements with the US that if they are involved in a war alongside the US and their supply of oil is cut off we have agreed to supply them. Israel is not so much a problem as they have a small population but the other two especially Japan have a massive need. If we were to keep our word there would be severe shortages even with continued and expanded North American production. Of all the choke points mentioned the most likely to be cut off and that would have the most effect are the strait of Hormuz and the Straights of Malaca. Hormuz would impact Europe and Malaca would efect our Pacific allies.


raptor wrote:This is an interesting article.

Speaking from one of the aforementioned choke points I would also note that a a large % of US refinery capacity as well as oil & gas domestic E&P activity (mainly the P part of that lately) is the GOM and MS River. So in addition to food being impacted this likewise would be impacted if this chokepoint was affected.
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jul 22, 2017 6:38 pm

Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by teotwaki » Sat Jul 22, 2017 7:37 pm

Stercutus wrote:Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
A Yellowstone eruption might whack Nebraska and parts of Minnesota/Iowa with ash.

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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by woodsghost » Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:03 pm

Stercutus wrote:Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
The words "radio active wasteland" came to mind.
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by TacAir » Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:11 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Stercutus wrote:Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
The words "radio active wasteland" came to mind.
Image

like this?
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by The Twizzler » Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:04 am

I disagree, if those states disappeared tomorrow we would not starve. We would pay more and have less choice but California and Texas by themselves could feed the country. In fact one of the few trade surpluses we have is in agriculture.
In 2015, the top 10 agricultural producing States, in terms of cash receipts were (in descending order): California, Iowa, Texas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois, Kansas, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Indiana. These and related statistics can be found in ERS's Farm Income and Wealth Statistics.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/faqs/#Q1
One of the most mistaken ideas about hunger is that the world doesn't have enough produce to feed everyone, the truth is that simple logistics and political stances are the main cause. People might starve in Sudan, Venezuela, Ireland, or wherever but the problem is getting food to the hungry, not that we can not produce enough.


Stercutus wrote:Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jul 23, 2017 6:46 am

Texas produces so much because they have all the corn from Iowa and Nebraska to feed cattle with. No corn = way less cattle. Iowa also produces huge quantities of pork and lots of other food stuffs.

Trust me we losing Iowa alone and things would be bad.

If Yellowstone goes up it won't matter. The new mini ice age brought about the changes in the atmosphere will kill the vast majority of the world population through starvation.
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by TheWarriorMax » Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:16 am

Stercutus wrote:Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
How many of the road and rail bridges and infrastructure between there and you are past their replacement date?
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by woodsghost » Sun Jul 23, 2017 3:19 pm

TacAir wrote:
woodsghost wrote:
Stercutus wrote:Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
The words "radio active wasteland" came to mind.
Image

like this?
I feel it would be a lot like that. With people and crops glowing orange and red and blue.
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by flybynight » Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:58 pm

woodsghost wrote:
TacAir wrote:
woodsghost wrote:
Stercutus wrote:Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
The words "radio active wasteland" came to mind.
Image

like this?
I feel it would be a lot like that. With people and crops glowing orange and red and blue.
What does that map portray ? What is the significance of the colors and if the dots indicate strategic military sites , I see several large ones not targeted
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by TacAir » Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:26 pm

The words "radio active wasteland" came to mind.[/quote]

Image

like this?[/quote]

I feel it would be a lot like that. With people and crops glowing orange and red and blue.[/quote]

What does that map portray ? What is the significance of the colors and if the dots indicate strategic military sites , I see several large ones not targeted[/quote]

Nuke targets and possible fallout patterns. Sub bases and missile fields. The usual.
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by flybynight » Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:52 pm

TacAir wrote:The words "radio active wasteland" came to mind.
Image

like this?[/quote]

I feel it would be a lot like that. With people and crops glowing orange and red and blue.[/quote]

What does that map portray ? What is the significance of the colors and if the dots indicate strategic military sites , I see several large ones not targeted[/quote]

Nuke targets and possible fallout patterns. Sub bases and missile fields. The usual.[/quote]

I had no idea Missouri had so many missle fields and sub bases. When did they close San Diego naval Base? Nice to know TBR1 isn't targeted
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by yossarian » Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:34 am

Stercutus wrote:Isolating Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota from the rest of the US would result in mass famine in the US on scale not seen in modern times. I don't know how that could be done.
Meh, isolating them isn't necessary. Just destroy their production with mandates and subsidies for ethanol and "alternative energy".
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Re: 14 choke points for transport of the world's food supply

Post by The Twizzler » Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:33 pm

There has been some good debate on this subject. Of course if you take away some food supplies and benefits of a petroleum based society people will suffer. I suppose the real question is what society that suffers the same fate would perform better than than the US? I honestly can't think of one. People will die of course but what country would perform better (better meaning a higher proportion of it's citizens don't starve). Some of the other countries might have a surplus of food but countries near them would try and take it, some would make the best of what they had but would run out, some countries would just starve. The Middle east would have to invade Africa, China would take Australia and NZ, Europe would revert to the wars of the past. Who knows what would happen to other countries. The best place to be would be North America. Canada and America would be sitting pretty good relatively. That's just my opinion, thoughts?
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