Erroneous Assumptions?

[jamoni]

Guys, come on... His punctuation is good, his grammar is decent and his spelling is almost spot on. Who cares what he wrote, let's keep him!

I love you, man.

[Doctorr Fabulous]

You guys may not agree but everytime a new guy comes up with an idea it should open up new ideas. I ve only posted on here a few times but i like the fact that people are adding ideas and thoughts. I would hAte to have a new person not posting somethig because they dont want bad PR. Everytime something. NEw is posted we should take it as a chance to look back and review the ideas that stood before it instead of throwing one liners. If its deemed a dupe let the mods kill it. If you dont have anything nice to say etc etc.

This is not the topic for that discussion.

[polliedes]

I think Zombiefred has done a good job of making people think.
Some people were offended, I don't think that was the intention.
I have heard many of the assumptions he has listed here also (in real life conversations not on the forums).
I may not agree with all he has to say, but it has given me the inclination to think about the BOV.
I would love a 4WD but honestly, I can not afford it.

1. I agree with Jamoni here.
2. Doctorr has a good point here, Modesto is not really representative of most of the country. The entire county I live in has half the population of Modesto and it's one of the larger counties in the state.
3. I don't think anyone who has ever seen a wreck believes this lol. People around here see one set of flashing lights and it's time to break out the grill and lawn chairs.
4. Kinda dependent on a lot of factors: terrain, experience, type of 2WD, etc. but overall i might agree on this point.
5. The example is too much of an isolated event. The statistical probability is negligible. And for the reinforced bumper, not a bad idea actually. My mom had a reinforced bumper on her pinto; of course that was to keep it from exploding in a car crash. It could help save wear and tear on the vehicle in general.
6. I hear this all the time from people (as well as I am coming to your house if things get bad, I am heading to Wal-mart, etc). I have met some members here who really could live off the land for quite a while. I do not consider myself one of them.
7. I have seen people make these asumptions with regular roads. Because the map was flat and they had no concept of what a topographical map is, they tried to take a vehicle up a road that was impossible to get up with the vehicle they were using.
8. Again, Jamoni makes sense with you gotta use what you can afford. If we all won the lottery, I am sure we would all have awesome 4x4's, but many of us have budget restrictions and we use our risk assessments to determine how we should prep.
9. Not sure where this came from. I have never seen or heard anyone say anything like this.
10. I hear this from time to time, but like most things, a BOV is a tool and which is best depends on the situation. I think most everyone on this site is in agreement here.


Thanks for the post

[ZombieFred]

Paladin1 “I will never concede that "whatever you have is a BOV" is a valid position to take. My wife used to drive a old Honda Civic, it was not, nor ever will be a BOV. It is what it is, a 2wd sub compact. Beats walking but don't call it a BOV.” Thank you. If all you have is a skate board, don’t write about how wonderful skateboards are. Read, research, ask, and concentrate on trying to find a better alternative.

Jamoni “Exactly what threads and posts have led you to believe that these assumptions represent the average point of view of ZS members.” I don’t know they are average… just persistent. Read the responses here and you will start seeing what I am talking about.

DocTorr “If someone wants to shoot you and take your stuff, it won't matter if you stop or slow down to 5mph (faster than that will hurt a lot, regardless of your vehicle) they'll just peg you from the window.” (I assume you mean through your window.) Hitting a moving target is far more difficult than a stopped one. Hitting a target moving 5 mph in a vehicle is much more difficult than one tied up on the ground, begging for his life. If given the choice, I prefer to be moving 5 mph in my vehicle. “IF you want to consider Lebanon an example, you have to throw IEDs into the mix.” (Out of context.) Lebanon was an example of how a beautiful, peaceful place turned ugly quickly. Even with that, you would rather park and let them plant an IED on your hood or force them to throw it at you? BTW: IEDs, Improvised Explosive Devices, are usually planted, like a mine, along busy streets. Another reason to get rid of your econo-box and get something bigger, that can go off-road and stand up to an explosive better. “Ram that.” Wow, you are getting quite hostile towards me. Tired of being wrong?

“Anyway, I still maintain that when I can afford it, I'll upgrade my car. Until then, I'll worry more about prepping than spending big money on a truck, then outfitting it like an A-team van because someone who thinks that anything made "after the 1990's will not stand up to abuse." I made most of my points about this in the "4x4 or Prius" thread. Like how I don't need a farm truck, because I'm not running a massive farm.” As I remember, you did argue a lot in that thread and repeated the same disproved lines over and over. Granted, in your mind your budget can’t flex enough for a 4x4. I understand. That does not make your VW the best survival vehicle. (Arguing that the skateboard is the best.) BTW: All the upgrades you want to add to make your VW look like the picture you posted (I looked them up)will cost enough to buy a cheap 4x4. Save the money, trade in the VW, and buy a decent 4x4. The pre-90s truck is what I suggest for a ranch type vehicle. I always maintained that a newer, reliable vehicle is best for evacuation. An older, simpler vehicle is better for long term survival.

“Visit the "snipers and sniping" thread, and you'll see that you best defense against an ambush is not to be there. If you can't go around it, like I said in the other transpo thread, there are several other options before trying to ram or push someone else's vehicle and cause damage to it. Like check to see if it's still got the keys. See if it can be put in neutral and rolled out of the way. If you expect an ambush, do a security halt and check out the area. Better than dying in your vehicle when they shoot you through the window or door, and adding to the roadblock, right?” Please re-read what I wrote. I never said plow-headlong into an obvious trap. (Strawman argument again?) Of course, do not be there. And again, I agree with you that IF you can move a car a different way, do so. If you can go around, do so. (4x4 makes this easier.) If you can spot trouble in advance, do so. But even the best trained, most cautious people get caught in traps. (Happens to our servicemen.) With your survival vehicle of choice, you have no option. During a carjacking, where someone is blocking the road with a vehicle, you are going to check their car for keys?

“But I digress. You know better than all of us, and I will die after being raped by Lebanese-Mexican banditos because I don't drive a lifted K-5 with a ramming bumper, and I'd raher not damage someone else's, and possibly mine before seeing if the vehicle could just be moved. But what do I know. I drive a gnome-mobile.” If that is your choice, fine. (I prefer not to be raped and killed but whatever floats your boat. ) Please don’t fill others heads with fantasies that your gnome mobile is the best thing possible when even you admit that if your budget was bigger you would choose something else.

“Lastly, I'd like to echo jamoni. Please cite some threads, especially ones where the majority of us are planning on living in the wilderness, or think we will be the first to leave. Or think that our bug-out routes are flat like the map.” I really don’t have to cite other threads. You are proving me correct with each response on this thread!

“Ninja edit: Modesto is not an average area for many of us. Using your area was a poor assumption.” Modesto is average in size for the USA (http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/SAFFFacts) and is not my area. I picked an average city. Bad assumption on your part.

OmegaDR “As a fellow "new guy" I have noticed the elder statesmen of this group, don't take kindly to the observations of us neophytes. Even after reading through the thousands of forum, we still have opinions we would like to share. Tough love, we can take, snarking, self-promoting grandstand we don't need.” Yeah, some wish they were something they are not and try to prove themselves by arguing for argument sake.

Hoppy “WTF is Modesto? oh an urban megalopolis in California with more than 7X the population of my own town ( one of the larger around) ignoring that its STILL larger than the urban area near me by over 50K people. you mean the rest of the US isn't California?!” Sorry you feel left out. I will try to make a list of all cities next time so no one’s feelings get hurt.

Fourway “Um... Dude has been here one month. He has participated in one thread that he didn't start.... seriously... his 12th post in this community is an origin post consisting of a screen and a half long screed a with a "you people have it all wrong" title and a numbered list of what all the poor deluded mofos here believe and why he knows better.” How long I have been here does not matter. If you disagree, we can discuss it. I never said everyone here is wrong. If you agree, why are you taking offense? I was pointing out assumptions people cling to that I believe are not good to hang onto.

“Aside from being really presumptuous and annoying, it shows a complete lack of cultural sensitivity.” Give me a break! I am wrong because I didn’t curtsy to the people that wrote over 100 times? How juvenile! Grow up.

I am not going to bother answering the rest of your writing. Your entire post was nothing but slamming me for being a new poster in an attempt by you to be part of the "popular" crowd. I am waiting for someone to tell you to stay on topic.

Darius “Zombiefred would you post pics of your bov?” I may. It doesn’t look like anything special. (That's the idea.) Very stock and boring looking, diesel F250. Idea is to not attract attention. After I can replace the tires (has stock tires right now) and put the shell back on, I will. The old jeep is still missing the body. She is just pretty bones right now.

[ZombieFred]

Polliedes,

Thank you for a polite response. Unfortunately, it is late here and I will try to answer tomorrow.

[Doctorr Fabulous]

Call strawman if you want. I'm not going into the employment of IEDs. If you missed that, it's a dead point. Next, 5mph will not stop someone from shooting you, ask the turret gunners who take accurate fire while zipping along at 25mph, so I maintain that if you're worried about banditos, slowing/stopping will have about the same effect. If you stop, get out of your vehicle, and end up tied up helpless on the ground, you have made a great number of failures prior to your choice of vehicle. And no, I'm not getting mad, just pointing out the flawed logic, since several letter organizations think that homegrown IEDs pose a threat now, if the US goes all Lebanon-y, IEDs will certainly become a threat. Since we're calling out logical fallacies like a highschool debate club, the Lebanese-Mexican bandito-rapists falls under rhetoric and strawman, as well as scare tactics.

Second, I never said that my car is the ultimate BOB. I merely said that my failure to want to trade my fuel efficient daily driver for a larger, more expensive, less efficient 4wd truck does not relegate me to dead in the ditch, or stuck in traffic watching all the guys with mud trucks laugh as they go zipping by on the trails. As I've said in other threads, going off-road requires more route recon more often, more planning, and much more driving skill and practice than driving secondary roads. Again, I have never said my vehicle is the best, merely the one that suits my needs. That goes back to what I said almost a month ago, about how a BOV needs to be personalized to the BOL and AO.

Next, I like how you strawmanned my strawman with your strawman, implying that I was going to check a vehicle for keys while someone is trying to jack my car. Maybe it's ignorance, or that California-is-the-US thing Jamoni mentioned, but I can carry a gun with me in my car, and wear it on my hip when I get out. I'm also a paranoid sumbitch in a sketchy situation. Comes form getting shot at when I didn't have the option not to be somewhere. Me and mine rarely got caught in a trap, since observation, careful planning and recon meant we knew it was there, but we had to walk right into it anyway.

I'm going to ignore the other strawman, and punch on to the "average for the US" potion. Statistics 101. Outliers like NYC and other densely populated areas greatly skew the average for less densely populated areas. For instance, New York state is smaller than North Carolina but has well over twice the population. I also didn't see where you got your figures saying that Modesto was average, sicne it was ranked 107th population wise in 2010 for US cities. There are more than 214 cities in the US. A lot more.

Basically, you can keep copping the attitude, trying to go high school debate on this by calling out logical "fallacies" or tactics you perceive, and creating situations to prove you points, or you can admit the errors you have made, and understand that like you said in your first post, there is no perfect BOV.

[maldon007]

I don't think anyone has slammed you for being new, I never bother looking at post count or date of join, when I answer posts... I assume most others here are similar that way.

But it makes it overly obvious you are new, when you assume you have much better answers to problems, than the ones talked about here, for years... erroneous assumptions.

Other than a few minor issues, I agree with your all your points... It's just that they are not new.

I think you probably have much to add to this site. Hang around, read/search, learn/teach... but don't assume you are fixing our flawed understanding of reality, untill you check a little beeper than a few threads. We are all on the same side, educating people...

And as others have asked, please post the threads where these erroneous assumptions have been embraced on here. Threads that are like that, should probably be added to, with corrections and such.

[jamoni]

If someone really wants to be taken seriously, they do some research, state a thesis, prove their thesis, and cite their sources.
So, I ask you:
1. What research have you done?
2. What is your thesis?
3. How does your research prove your thesis?
4. What are your sources?

Also, instead of telling us what to do, show us how YOU have solved these problems.

[jamoni]

This post has problems that need to be addressed. It makes sweeping statements, often in a derogatory fashion, that it fails to prove.
Its tone is confrontational without being constructive. To be helpful to the ZS community, it should offer specific examples of the behavior it criticizes, and of the behavior that it approves of. For criticism to be constructive, it is necessary to provide positive alternatives.
I will take it section by section and show how I would have changed it to get a better response.

“Most plans are just inaccurate predictions.” Ben Bayol

We all are guessing what is in store for us and what vehicle will best serve our needs. I can’t foresee the future nor tell you the best car for you. I can’t even tell you IF something will happen. I can use my experiences, look back at the past, and see what is happening in other countries. This information provides a foundation for likely outcomes for us here.

This is our introduction. Here, we need to grab our readers’ attention, and state our thesis.
The basic point here seems to be “We need to use history and current events to inform our disaster plans.”

I write today to challenge some people’s assumptions. I will discuss why I believe these predictions are erroneous and how this affects your choice of survival vehicle. Some take for granted that what they enjoy today will be there tomorrow or that survival is like a B-rated movie. I am assessing these notions to help you choose the best survival vehicle possible and make your evacuation from a bad situation successful.

The point here seems to be “Some people have erroneous assumptions about survival”. Since this is in the transportation section of the forum, we could write our thesis:
“When making plans to travel during a disaster, some people have preconceived notions that are incorrect, and which need to be reassessed using the lessons of history and current events.”
As you can see, this is a clear statement which can be proved or disproved using examples. Up to this point, the OP has done okay, but the post lacks structure.

Let us take these assumptions one at a time.

1) “I will beat the traffic and get out of town before everyone else.” Talk about arrogant! For someone to believe they are smarter or have better information than everyone else borders on delusional. Politicians, civil servants (Fire, Police, etc.), and media people will likely have evacuation news before you. They will call family and friends before passing the information onto the public. People listening to the radio or watching TV at home (unemployed, stay at home moms, or working from home) will usually have access to information quicker than someone at work. Any vehicle you choose should take traffic into consideration. Drivability and comfort should not be overlooked.

The tone here immediately distances the reader. “Arrogant! Delusional!” Frankly, these two words probably lost you the majority of your readers. If you have a clear thesis, you can prove it with examples. You do not need to resort to name calling. Try this:
“1) I will beat the traffic and get out of town before everyone else.” This is unlikely. Many people in government, the media, and disaster relief organizations will get warning of impending disasters before the general public. People with greater media access will get word before those at work or out of contact. This shows the importance of setting up networks to alert you of disasters, and of planning to deal with heavy traffic once you decide to evacuate. ”
See that? No name calling, and gives positive alternatives to negative behavior.

2) “I have several different routes planned so I will be OK.” If one looks at a medium sized city like Modesto, CA, one sees a population of about 240,000 people with a limited number of exit routes. I counted 23 routes which do not share a road with another exit. This is down to the smallest paved roads I could find on my TomTom. This does not include the surrounding populations of Ripon, Salida, Ceres, and Turlock. Also, I am not including that most of the traffic may be headed one way, away from an oncoming threat. (Heading north or west is limited because of rivers.) This puts over 10,000 people per route. I don’t live in Modesto and I know three “old county roads” that don’t appear on Map-quest. I expect that many people there know them as well. Your vehicle should be able to be off-road. 4X4 is a minimum.

This actually isn’t bad. You state the preconceived notion, then refute it with facts. The only criticism is that your concluding statement “Your vehicle should be able to be off-road. 4x4 is a minimum” isn’t supported. How will that alleviate the preconceived notion? It’s quibbling, I know, but it’s true.

3) “The police, fire fighters, ambulances, and tow trucks will clear the roads and keep traffic moving.” This assumption maintains that emergency workers are brain dead robots with unlimited resources who will serve until the bitter end. I have several friends and family members who are in civil service. If a threat is large enough to warrant evacuation, they will quit and save their own families. One in-law who is high ranking in the local fire department said, “If they call for an evacuation, I am going to be the first one out of town.” Those that do sick it out may not have resources to do the job. This article from Hurricane Katrina is enlightening: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/04/natio ... olice.html . Again, do not rely on government maintained roads if you expect the government to melt down. Use the roads as much as possible but make certain your vehicle can go off-road when the roads are not passable.

This is actually pretty good, except that most people have enough experience with traffic delays to know better.
It could be more concise:
“3) Police, tow trucks, and other emergency services will keep traffic moving.” Anyone who has experienced a traffic jam due to a car accident knows this to be false. In addition, many emergency workers will abandon their jobs to protect themselves and their families. Katrina link, etc.”

4) “I can make it off road with 2 wheel drive as much as I will need to.” I ascribe to the philosophy that it is better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it. No one knows how much off-road driving will be needed during an evacuation if any. Just remember these pictures of a blocked country road when planning ahead http://www.gabetaylor.net/General/flood ... index.html. According to FEMA, weather caused more damage over the past 30 years than all other sources combined. Odds are the weather will not cooperate with and may be the reason for an evacuation. Most 2wd vehicles just can’t make it through mud or over many obstacles. How many times have you seen a person stuck alongside a road when trying to turn around? A simple, smooth, grass median will be an impassable barrier to most 2wd vehicles if it is soaked with rain. When choosing an evacuation vehicle, again, I believe 4x4 is a minimum.

This is good. Could be shorter, but you clearly state the issue, refute it with examples, and offer an alternative.

5) “I will just use a winch if I get stuck or have to move something.” I have a winch (most are hand powered “come-alongs”) and jack in every car. When I was younger, I loaded a 25 foot container unit onto a flatbed trailer with a bunch of blocks, chains, a come-along, and 2 high-lift jacks. A winch and jacks work if you have time, leverage, and ability to use them. One example is what is currently happening in Mexico. Banditos block the road with their car and then rob, kidnap, rape, and kill people who stop. In this situation, YOU SHOULD NOT STOP! You do not have time to winch their vehicle out of the way. If you’re stuck in a place with nothing close to winch onto, ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE-UImlMKrU ) then you just became a pedestrian. If you do not know how to use a winch or jack, get some experience from someone while being safe. Don’t be like these guys: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1NnL83U ... re=related . I believe a larger, all-wheel drive vehicle with a reinforced bumper is a definite plus in most situations.

This point is all over the place. It needs to be edited for clarity. We don’t really need to know most of it.
“5) “I will just use a winch if I get stuck or have to move something”. A winch and jacks work if you have time, leverage, and ability to use them. Unfortunately, we won’t always have these things. For example, time may be limited due to gunfire or ambushes like those occurring in Mexico. You may be stuck in an open field with nothing to attach your winch to. Also, it is necessary to get the proper training (links to nearly dead yahoos). For these reasons, I believe it is desirable to have a large 4wd that can avoid getting stuck, and can push obstacles out of the way.”

6) “I will just head to the mountains and live off the land.” Usually, people think they will drive into the forest, abandon their car, and live like the Indians. Camping during a week’s vacation is much different than hunting / gathering! Unless they have a place in mind that NO ONE else knows about, that person will be in a battle for food and probably territory. I am worried about where I am heading and whether or not someone will break in and set up residence. (This is my family’s property!) If someone is planning to live off what nature provides, they better have a huge place in mind. “It has been estimated that people who depend on hunting and gathering must have approximately 20 to 1,500 square kilometers (10 to 700 square miles) of land per person, depending on the climate.” Deer Skins into Buckskins (Summary http://www.bookrags.com/research/hunter ... s-ansc-03/). If this is your plan, please rethink. A good vehicle will assist as more than just transportation but add as a survival tool. Think farm vehicle.

To be frank, this whole point detracts from your purpose. We are talking about bug out vehicle choice, not bug out location choice. This is the transportation section, after all.

7) “I will just head off-road and 4x4 my way there.” Maps are flat and fool a person into believing it’s not so difficult to get from this point to that point. Beyond all the obstacles (rocks, rivers, trees, buildings, fences, inclines, declines, ditches, etc), your fuel economy drops like a rock. Going in low, low gear and crawling a few miles is like putting a 50 pound weight on your gas needle. A conservative mpg estimate from Pirate4x4.com is 1/6th your normal miles per gallon. Expect much worse. When choosing a vehicle, consider its total range over gas mileage.

This is good information. You stated a notion, refuted it with evidence, and gave some alternatives. I’d throw in some advice to get training on 4 wheeling and land nav.

8) “After I get there, I won’t be using my vehicle anyway” Or “There won’t be any fuel afterwards so a car is useless.” Choosing a vehicle with limited abilities reduce its usefulness. If your evacuation vehicle is a bicycle, it will be limited to human powered transportation. This means you will only be able to move low weight and/or volume things. It will not be much good for firewood or road building or fence fixing. There was fuel available all during the Great Depression and World War II. No matter how broke and starving their people are every country I can think of (except Vatican City) has gas and diesel for sale. If you believe things will be worse than that then learn how to make your own fuel. People have been distilling ethanol / methanol and rendering oils for centuries. Gasification is used by some when they could not afford gas. (Currently, I know the basics of distilling and gasification but never tried them myself.) My understanding is that some auto computers (ECU) can not handle alternative fuels. Pick a vehicle that does not have these limitations. Buy extra wear parts like brakes, wiper blades, belts, hoses, and other things to keep your vehicle going.

I’d LOVE to have a vehicle with UNLIMITED usefulness. It could clean the house, fix global warming, and keep my razorblades sharp and my bread fresh.
This bullet is all over the place. How about:
“In the long run, a truck will be useless: In most disasters, fuel and parts will be available, though more expensive. A 4x4 truck, combined with strategies to reduce its use such as bicycling for most errands, will still be a valuable asset.” Then prove it with examples, and give alternatives: spare parts, multifuel, etc.

9) “I don’t have that many people going with me.” Plans change. Are you hard-hearted enough to drive off and leave a friend or family member? What if you are the bug-out destination and you must go and bring friends or family to you? I advocate flexibility. An evacuation vehicle should be able to carry your group and a number of tools and possessions needed to keep you alive. But most of all, your vehicle should be flexible and adaptable to a new circumstance.

Good stuff. I would just add “A 4x4 truck meets these requirements.”

10) “The perfect vehicle is XXXXXXX.” There is no perfect vehicle. What might work great for me will be a bust for the next person because their needs and evacuation experience will differ. Price and practicality play into the mix. Please use your own judgment and try not to buy into hype and over enthusiasm over a particular vehicle. I strongly advise a 4x4 over a 2wd. Also, I believe a larger vehicle will do more and offer better flexibility than a smaller vehicle.

For the second part of this, you just need to prove your assertions, and maybe add some other considerations such as MPG, maintenance ease, etc. Otherwise really good.

As I read, I am struck by how some people honestly believe they have this whole “surviving an apocalypse” thing figured out. They are so confident in their predictions that questing their assumptions brings about hostility. If I don't question their vehicle suggestions, you may opt for the wrong vehicle. Accepting their speculations will likely increase your chances of being a hitchhiker (at best) or a fatality (at worst) during a time of evacuation. Please understand, my suggestions are based on my experiences and those of people from the past and those in other countries. I may be completely wrong but at least I am using facts and history as the foundation for my choices.

This is another spot where you’ve let your soapbox detract from your message. It’s possible to like the main point of our post and still get pissed off about this part. Try depersonalizing it:
“There are many different opinions about bugout vehicles. While well-meaning, some of these can be dangerous because they are based on false assumptions. By learning the lessons of history and current events, we can examine these ideas to find out which ones have merit, and which ones should be avoided.”

Frederic Bastiat wrote, “The plans differ; the planners are all alike...” I feel we share a common goal. We want as many people as possible to survive any future emergency situation. I wrote this because I want you to survive.

AWESOME CONCLUSION

I think, in a later post, I would then detail how I PERSONALLY had addressed these issues, or at least link to places where I'd done so. Again, constructive criticism requires not just criticism, but positive alternatives.
Basically, if you depersonalize your language, clarify your thesis, prove your points with examples, and provide positive alternatives, you’ll get a better response.
I also feel we share a common goal. We want people to survive. I simply think that learning to work together instead of against each other is the way to do that.

[ZombieFred]

Please accept my apologies if I come off as too direst. I am a very direct person. I won’t tell you that you should consider wearing stronger cologne. I will just tell you that you stink and let you figure out how to correct it.

Jamoni and Palliedes, I would like to answer what Palliedes wrote but he said he agrees with Jamoni so I have to use quotes from both to answer. Hopefully, this will not be too confusing.

Polliedes

Polliedes, "1. I agree with Jamoni here.” Jamoni “1. It's not a matter of getting out first, it's a matter of getting out early. That's doable, as long as you have a good network of folks who can give you a heads up. (like ZS)” I do not think it is realistic to believe you will learn of an evacuation order before any other average person. One can quicken their departure time by having a bug-out bag for everyone in your house, having advanced plans, and an acceptance that you will leave valuables behind (big TV, fridge, sports car, etc.) Even with that advantage, I believe it is realistic to accept hitting traffic.

It is better to follow the advice from Thomas Norton in the 16th century, "Hope for the best and prepare for the worst." If your plans can handle the worst realistic scenario case, then a lesser crisis should be easier. It is realistic to believe that traffic will be so bad that you may be stuck. When hurricane Rita hit Dallas, I-45 and Interstate 10 were gridlocked. The NY Times said, “…as many as 2.5 million people jammed evacuation routes on Thursday, creating colossal 100-mile-long traffic jams that left many people stranded…” http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/23/natio ... wanted=all The deadliest incident related to hurricane was the evacuation. A bus of senior citizens caught fire. http://www.chron.com/news/hurricanes/ar ... 502590.php .

Here is a study from Victoria Transport Policy Institute: http://www.vtpi.org/katrina.pdf about the transportation problems during hurricanes Katrina and Rita in which they say, “Rita’s evacuation plan failed because of excessive reliance on automobiles, resulting in traffic congestion and fuel shortages.”

Polliedes “2. Doctorr has a good point here, Modesto is not really representative of most of the country. The entire county I live in has half the population of Modesto and it's one of the larger counties in the state.” Again, I am sorry if the example does not include your circumstances. I used this data http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/SAFFFacts from the Federal government for the year 2000 to find an “average city.” Modesto was the closest one in population size that I could recollect. From the web site, about 281,000 people is the average population. Modesto has about 201,000.

Polliedes “3. I don't think anyone who has ever seen a wreck believes this lol. People around here see one set of flashing lights and it's time to break out the grill and lawn chairs.” Well, by the vehicle choices some here advocate they must believe someone will keep the roads clear and safe.

Polliedes “4. Kinda dependent on a lot of factors: terrain, experience, type of 2WD, etc. but overall i might agree on this point.” I do not live in town. I have pulled more stuck people onto the road than I can count. They usually get stuck just turning around when they figure out they are lost. I do agree with you that it depends on terrain, experience, 2wd system, weather, and many other things. But, it is better to have capabilities and not need them than to need a capability you do not not have.

Polliedes “5. The example is too much of an isolated event. The statistical probability is negligible.” Currently, with our veneer of society in place, it is highly unlikely. I used Mexico as an example of what can likely happen here. “…Carjackings in Mexico has increased greatly during the past few years.” http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article ... yid=834526 Our State Department says, “The homicide rates in parts of Mexico have risen sharply in recent years, driven largely by violence associated with transnational criminal organizations.” http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_t ... s_970.html The idea of driving in Mexico being dangerous is recent. In 2003, we drove in Mexico and it was not considered a dangerous thing.

Unlike what others imply I said, I do not believe we will need to import hoodlums from other countries. In a survival situation, desperate people here will do what they need to survive. I used Mexico as an example of what crimes people do to survive. Whether they need money for food or drugs, desperate people do bad things.

Polliedes “8. Again, Jamoni makes sense with you gotta use what you can afford. If we all won the lottery, I am sure we would all have awesome 4x4's, but many of us have budget restrictions and we use our risk assessments to determine how we should prep.” Granted, use what you have. If the only tool I have is a screw driver, I do what I can with it. Should I try to get everyone to own a screw driver also? In the thread "PAW/TEOTWAWKI Vehicle: 4x4 or Prius " some try to convince others that their choice was best. I advocated the opposite position.

The focus of this thread is not the most practical vehicle for everyday life. It is food for thought that when it comes time to replace your vehicle, find one with more capabilities. I advocate sacrificing gas mileage in trade for off-road ability, utility, and safety.

[ZombieFred]

Doc Torr:
“Call strawman if you want. I'm not going into the employment of IEDs. If you missed that, it's a dead point.” And yet, you will mention it again later. What ever.

“Next, 5mph will not stop someone from shooting you, ask the turret gunners who take accurate fire while zipping along at 25mph, so I maintain that if you're worried about banditos, slowing/stopping will have about the same effect.” Per your suggestion, I did call an older gentleman friend of mine. He was a gunner on a British Ferret in Ireland during the early to mid-70’s. During that time, he was battling IRA. He faced a few blocked roads and other nastiness. I put the question to him and he said, “Only a fool would stop.” He maintained that the average carjacking thugs probably do not have a fully automatic, 50 caliber machine gun and a HumVee load of ammo in which to destroy a vehicle. A 22 caliber probably will not make it through a door and may be deflected by a widow. .38 caliber is known to be deflect by front glass. .223 and .308 rifle rounds will penetrate. No matter what they are armed with, I do not want to be a stationary target. As you know, when under attack don’t stop. Get out of the situation. Get out of the line of fire.

“If you stop, get out of your vehicle, and end up tied up helpless on the ground, you have made a great number of failures prior to your choice of vehicle.” With the best caution, care, and training possible, people still get surprised. Even the best trained military men get surprised. http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=90067 ... ukAblaDHCM This is a story about two soldiers who were kidnapped from a convoy.

“And no, I'm not getting mad, just pointing out the flawed logic, since several letter organizations think that homegrown IEDs pose a threat now, if the US goes all Lebanon-y, IEDs will certainly become a threat.” I do not consider it flawed logic to provide information why I believe a bigger, safer, 4x4 vehicle with more utility is a better choice for evacuation and survival. I did not start the topic of IEDs, you did. (Then you started this note by saying it was a dead point.) I pointed out how they are normally used and that I would rather be in a bigger, safer vehicle than a small vehicle if one goes off nearby.

“Since we're calling out logical fallacies like a highschool debate club, the Lebanese-Mexican bandito-rapists falls under rhetoric and strawman, as well as scare tactics.” Attacking the man, putting words in my mouth, out of context quotes, etc, etc, etc. By what I read, you wouldn’t last in high school debate. I never said "Lebanese-Mexican banditos" were coming. You put words in my mouth. I said that if it can happen there, it can happen here. Pointing out what is happening in other countries is not a scare tactic. It is a provable fact.

”Second, I never said that my car is the ultimate BOB. I merely said that my failure to want to trade my fuel efficient daily driver for a larger, more expensive, less efficient 4wd truck does not relegate me to dead in the ditch, or stuck in traffic watching all the guys with mud trucks laugh as they go zipping by on the trails.” Again, we are talking about what would make a better BOV. It is possible and likely that you can get to where you want with no problems. I am pointing out that if certain assumptions prove false then your evacuation vehicle will leave you stranded. You even admit that if you had the money, you would get something else. I agree. “As I've said in other threads, going off-road requires more route recon more often, more planning, and much more driving skill and practice than driving secondary roads. Again, I have never said my vehicle is the best, merely the one that suits my needs. That goes back to what I said almost a month ago, about how a BOV needs to be personalized to the BOL and AO.” I agree. Learn your tools. Know how to use them. I am giving people the idea that if they are in the position to get another vehicle, buy something bigger, 4wd, greater utility, and safer.

”Next, I like how you strawmanned my strawman with your strawman, implying that I was going to check a vehicle for keys while someone is trying to jack my car.” You said it, not me. Go read what you wrote. “Maybe it's ignorance, or that California-is-the-US thing Jamoni mentioned, but I can carry a gun with me in my car, and wear it on my hip when I get out.” It is illegal to carry a loaded gun in California without a concealed weapon permit. Since website rules state you can not advocate illegal activities on this website, please be careful not to get banned. But using your logic, if you are pulling a gun to fight your way out of a situation, you made a bunch of mistakes. I would put forward that one of those mistakes was a bad choice of survival vehicle. “I'm also a paranoid sumbitch in a sketchy situation. Comes form getting shot at when I didn't have the option not to be somewhere. Me and mine rarely got caught in a trap, since observation, careful planning and recon meant we knew it was there, but we had to walk right into it anyway.” You rarely got caught? So you have been caught in a trap even with all the care and caution and paranoia. For many people, it only takes once and they do not get a second chance. When you were caught in a trap, did you get out of your vehicle with your gun and fight it out or did you drive out of the kill box as fast as possible?

”I'm going to ignore the other strawman, and punch on to the "average for the US" potion. Statistics 101. Outliers like NYC and other densely populated areas greatly skew the average for less densely populated areas. For instance, New York state is smaller than North Carolina but has well over twice the population. I also didn't see where you got your figures saying that Modesto was average, sicne it was ranked 107th population wise in 2010 for US cities. There are more than 214 cities in the US. A lot more.” 107th out of 214 cities? Wow, that is the definition of the median average. It is exactly in the middle of population according to your figures.

”Basically, you can keep copping the attitude, trying to go high school debate on this by calling out logical "fallacies" or tactics you perceive, and creating situations to prove you points, or you can admit the errors you have made, and understand that like you said in your first post, there is no perfect BOV.” Me copping an attitude??? Really? Your tone has been hostile towards me since the first time I posted here. I am sorry I have to point out the logical errors that high school students know. I presented a few assumptions I believe are wrong and provided information as to why I am convinced they are wrong. I am unaware of errors I have made. I may lose style points but my points are still valid.

[Doctorr Fabulous]

Doc Torr:

“Next, 5mph will not stop someone from shooting you, ask the turret gunners who take accurate fire while zipping along at 25mph, so I maintain that if you're worried about banditos, slowing/stopping will have about the same effect.” Per your suggestion, I did call an older gentleman friend of mine. He was a gunner on a British Ferret in Ireland during the early to mid-70’s. During that time, he was battling IRA. He faced a few blocked roads and other nastiness. I put the question to him and he said, “Only a fool would stop.” He maintained that the average carjacking thugs probably do not have a fully automatic, 50 caliber machine gun and a HumVee load of ammo in which to destroy a vehicle. Most shooters in Iraq and Afghanistan don't either, which was my point. they can his a moving head at 25mph with a bolt action or an AK.A 22 caliber probably will not make it through a door and may be deflected by a widow.Erroneous assumption. It will. .38 caliber is known to be deflect by front glass.Deflected somewhat, but it still penetrates with enough force to kill. .223 and .308 rifle rounds will penetrate. No matter what they are armed with, I do not want to be a stationary target. As you know, when under attack don’t stop. Get out of the situation. Get out of the line of fire.Been under fire, done both. Situation dictates.

“If you stop, get out of your vehicle, and end up tied up helpless on the ground, you have made a great number of failures prior to your choice of vehicle.” With the best caution, care, and training possible, people still get surprised. Even the best trained military men get surprised. http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=90067 ... ukAblaDHCM This is a story about two soldiers who were kidnapped from a convoy. As I said, there was a series of bad choices that lead to that. I'll discuss it over PM if you really want to know.

“And no, I'm not getting mad, just pointing out the flawed logic, since several letter organizations think that homegrown IEDs pose a threat now, if the US goes all Lebanon-y, IEDs will certainly become a threat.” I do not consider it flawed logic to provide information why I believe a bigger, safer, 4x4 vehicle with more utility is a better choice for evacuation and survival. I did not start the topic of IEDs, you did. (Then you started this note by saying it was a dead point.) I pointed out how they are normally used and that I would rather be in a bigger, safer vehicle than a small vehicle if one goes off nearby. Unless it's armored, a bigger SUV and a small car have about the same protection against an explosive as they do a rifle round: none.

“Since we're calling out logical fallacies like a highschool debate club, the Lebanese-Mexican bandito-rapists falls under rhetoric and strawman, as well as scare tactics.” Attacking the man, putting words in my mouth, out of context quotes, etc, etc, etc. By what I read, you wouldn’t last in high school debate. I never said "Lebanese-Mexican banditos" were coming. You put words in my mouth. I said that if it can happen there, it can happen here. Pointing out what is happening in other countries is not a scare tactic. It is a provable fact. It's not been seen in the US, and I don't think it's relevant to choice of vehicle.

”Second, I never said that my car is the ultimate BOB. I merely said that my failure to want to trade my fuel efficient daily driver for a larger, more expensive, less efficient 4wd truck does not relegate me to dead in the ditch, or stuck in traffic watching all the guys with mud trucks laugh as they go zipping by on the trails.” Again, we are talking about what would make a better BOV. It is possible and likely that you can get to where you want with no problems. I am pointing out that if certain assumptions prove false then your evacuation vehicle will leave you stranded. You even admit that if you had the money, you would get something else. I agree. “As I've said in other threads, going off-road requires more route recon more often, more planning, and much more driving skill and practice than driving secondary roads. Again, I have never said my vehicle is the best, merely the one that suits my needs. That goes back to what I said almost a month ago, about how a BOV needs to be personalized to the BOL and AO.” I agree. Learn your tools. Know how to use them. I am giving people the idea that if they are in the position to get another vehicle, buy something bigger, 4wd, greater utility, and safer. Facepalm. You yourself admitted there was no one BOV, but continue to insist that the best option for everyone is a 4x4 SUV or truck.

”Next, I like how you strawmanned my strawman with your strawman, implying that I was going to check a vehicle for keys while someone is trying to jack my car.” You said it, not me. Go read what you wrote. “Maybe it's ignorance, or that California-is-the-US thing Jamoni mentioned, but I can carry a gun with me in my car, and wear it on my hip when I get out.” It is illegal to carry a loaded gun in California without a concealed weapon permit. Since website rules state you can not advocate illegal activities on this website, please be careful not to get banned. Cute. But I'm not in Cali, as I said, and MOST of the US does not fall under Cali laws, which was my point. My other point was that if there is an active, identifiable threat, I'm not going to get out of my car and check for keys. But using your logic, if you are pulling a gun to fight your way out of a situation, you made a bunch of mistakes. I would put forward that one of those mistakes was a bad choice of survival vehicle. “I'm also a paranoid sumbitch in a sketchy situation. Comes form getting shot at when I didn't have the option not to be somewhere. Me and mine rarely got caught in a trap, since observation, careful planning and recon meant we knew it was there, but we had to walk right into it anyway.” You rarely got caught? So you have been caught in a trap even with all the care and caution and paranoia.Read again, the times we did walk into a trap, it was one we could see coming, but had to walk into. orders. For many people, it only takes once and they do not get a second chance. When you were caught in a trap, did you get out of your vehicle with your gun and fight it out or did you drive out of the kill box as fast as possible? Neither. In a vehicle, we set up a gunline and fought through, or on foot (the majority) we fought through. Because we had to be there. But this has gotten pretty far off topic.

”I'm going to ignore the other strawman, and punch on to the "average for the US" potion. Statistics 101. Outliers like NYC and other densely populated areas greatly skew the average for less densely populated areas. For instance, New York state is smaller than North Carolina but has well over twice the population. I also didn't see where you got your figures saying that Modesto was average, sicne it was ranked 107th population wise in 2010 for US cities. There are more than 214 cities in the US. A lot more.” 107th out of 214 cities? Wow, that is the definition of the median average. It is exactly in the middle of population according to your figures. Google says there are something like 23,000+ cities, which is much larger that 214. I said more than 214 to illustrate that it is not a median. Poor fact checking on your part.

”Basically, you can keep copping the attitude, trying to go high school debate on this by calling out logical "fallacies" or tactics you perceive, and creating situations to prove you points, or you can admit the errors you have made, and understand that like you said in your first post, there is no perfect BOV.” Me copping an attitude??? Really? Your tone has been hostile towards me since the first time I posted here.Not hostile, in particular, but maybe you read it that way since you're focused on "winning" the thread. I am sorry I have to point out the logical errors that high school students know. I presented a few assumptions I believe are wrong and provided information as to why I am convinced they are wrong. I am unaware of errors I have made. I may lose style points but my points are still valid.

Straight forward is one thing, but tact is important in a discussion. Not a debate. Not an argument. A discussion.

[Tater Raider]

I will never concede that "whatever you have is a BOV" is a valid position to take. My wife used to drive a old Honda Civic, it was not, nor ever will be a BOV. It is what it is, a 2wd sub compact. Beats walking but don't call it a BOV.

Thank you. If all you have is a skate board, don’t write about how wonderful skateboards are. Read, research, ask, and concentrate on trying to find a better alternative.

Speaking as the guy that promotes this idea heavily, if all you have is a 2wd sub-compact, then what are you using in your bug-out? Since that is what you are using, it is your default BOV. Anyone saying anything else is selling something.

You can take said vehicle and make it a better BOV, no doubt.

You can also go and find yourself a better BOV, I'm sure of it.

That doens't change the fact that what you use in a bug-out is your BOV. It doesn't matter if it's not what you want for a BOV - it's what you use that makes it what it is, not what it is that makes it your property.

Mine does double duty as a BOV/Daily Driver. It is nearly perfect for what I need. It is not perfect. There are better BOV's out there for me than the '11 JK I have. No matter what I have there will always be soemthing better at some part of my bug-out than what I own no matter what I own. That's how these things go.

Anyone saying different I treat as if they are trying to sell me something. Sorry, but I'm not buying. (Edit: Paladin1 and I don't agree on this but I respect where he's coming from on the matter - we have hashed it out more than once and so far as I'm concerned we're cool, but agree to disagree.)

And for the record I will assert, yet again, that in my never to be humble opinion the absolute best compromise one can make for a daily driver and bug-out vehicle in one for a family of 4 or more in the United States (lower 48) is an AWD minivan with bicycle carrier on back and a pair of canoes or inflatable boat up on the roof so you have many options in case of breakdown. Note that even in selcting what may (75%+ of the time) be the best BOV I had to qualify the hell out of the statement.

What's the best BOV? What should you consider? How can you best use what you have until you can get something better? No one but the individual in question can answer that but many can offer opinions and guidance, and that is another blanket statement I'll stand behind.


EtA: And if you are using a skateboard to bug-out I want you to post about how you are using it and why. I'm interested, because I'm betting it beats walking.

[lailr]

Fact is, if a disaster goes on long enough, we all need to get horses

[squinty]

To paraphrase the unofficial US poet laureate Donald Rumsfeld: "you bug out with the vehicle you have---not the vehicle you might want or wish to have at a later time." Can't buy every prep at once.
I prep as my limited time and budget allow. The only good thing I can say about my current BOV is that it has a tight turning radius and very good range on a tank of fuel, even loaded down. Not ideal by a long shot, but helpful in some ways. Until I have the time and opportunity to do a good 4WD diesel truck mod (will happen sometime in the future) I'm stuck with what I got. The economical nature of the vehicle (in terms of mileage, insurance, maintenance costs and 'paid for' status) means I have more discretionary income to lay in BIL supplies, pay for insurance, fortify the house, etc. and and that is quite helpful at the moment. If I have to go off road in a bug out situation, or push through some looters' roadblock, will I wish I'd got a more robust vehicle? Laws yes. If I have to do an emergency U turn on a cramped road because some catastrophe blocked off that route? Glad to have the compact.

[maldon007]

One other point, it is hard to say what exactly the emergency will be, and that may determin what type of vehicle is the best BOV... If a plague wipes out 99.9% of the population, and nobody ever really evacuated, cause the "stay indoors" order went out... Maybe the roads are clear, but gas is scarce... In which case the 2wd with good mileage, might be the best BOV.

It seems like, at some point, a vehicle with good mileage would be a plus... Or dirt bikes... or light aircraft... or a boat... depending

[squinty]

I think being as informed as possible and getting out before the stampede / road choke is critical. Wait long enough, no matter what vehicle you have, you might have to stay there and take it because you didn't leave in time. Katrina.
So, how do we get foreknowledge of a disaster? We don't always. But often people do, they just ignore it - Katrina again, the hurricane was on the news, there was real time video of the storm coming, for days - but some people didn't take the news seriously, some simply didn't have the resources to get out while the gettin' out was good. There wouldn't be another opportunity to get out until after the storm, after the water receded a bit. A bass boat might have been the ideal BOV for awhile, and a big truck after that. But it was quite easy to get out early enough to beat the rush, if you took the threat seriously. You just had to be a little bit ahead of the denial/panic curve.

My ideal BOV fantasy is a full size diesel quad cab, with a winch and some rammy bars and an extended fuel tank, roll flats and a camper top. Some other mods, you get the idea. But it would be an incredible burden for me to drive that sucker to work every day, and quite a bastard to park in some of the places I go.

Edited twice for spelling and clarity, then I gave up.

[Mall Ninja]

My ideal BOV fantasy is a full size diesel quad cab, with a winch and some rammy bars and an extended fuel tank, roll flats and a camper top. Some other mods, you get the idea. But it would be an incredible burden for me to drive that sucker to work every day, and quite a bastard to park in some of the places I go.

That almost sounds as if you were describing an MRAP. Hmmm, I wonder with the draw down if they're going to be surplusing any of those...

[Doctorr Fabulous]

My ideal BOV fantasy is a full size diesel quad cab, with a winch and some rammy bars and an extended fuel tank, roll flats and a camper top. Some other mods, you get the idea. But it would be an incredible burden for me to drive that sucker to work every day, and quite a bastard to park in some of the places I go.

That almost sounds as if you were describing an MRAP. Hmmm, I wonder with the draw down if they're going to be surplusing any of those...

Don't. A drunk monkey with steel stock and a welding kit could make a more comfortable, economical vehicle.

Oh wait, they did...

[Lord_Jim]

[quote="ZombieFred"] DocTorr [b]“If someone wants to shoot you and take your stuff, it won't matter if you stop or slow down to 5mph (faster than that will hurt a lot, regardless of your vehicle) they'll just peg you from the window.” (I assume you mean through your window.) Hitting a moving target is far more difficult than a stopped one. Hitting a target moving 5 mph in a vehicle is much more difficult than one tied up on the ground, begging for his life. If given the choice, I prefer to be moving 5 mph in my vehicle. “IF you want to consider Lebanon an example, you have to throw IEDs into the mix.” (Out of context.) Lebanon was an example of how a beautiful, peaceful place turned ugly quickly. Even with that, you would rather park and let them plant an IED on your hood or force them to throw it at you? BTW: IEDs, Improvised Explosive Devices, are usually planted, like a mine, along busy streets. Another reason to get rid of your econo-box and get something bigger, that can go off-road and stand up to an explosive better. “Ram that.” Wow, you are getting quite hostile towards me. Tired of being wrong?



As a combat vet, and I know I'm not the only one here, an properly set IED can and will mess up your day in a hurry. It does not matter what type of vehicle you are in. If it is planted correctly and properly camoflauged, you will not know it is there until too late. Lost too many friends and came close to lossing myself twice to IED's.

[squinty]

My ideal BOV fantasy is a full size diesel quad cab, with a winch and some rammy bars and an extended fuel tank, roll flats and a camper top. Some other mods, you get the idea. But it would be an incredible burden for me to drive that sucker to work every day, and quite a bastard to park in some of the places I go.

That almost sounds as if you were describing an MRAP. Hmmm, I wonder with the draw down if they're going to be surplusing any of those...

Don't. A drunk monkey with steel stock and a welding kit could make a more comfortable, economical vehicle.

Oh wait, they did...

Jeep/Eagle, or Malibu classic?

I don't know what an MRAP is, I was thinking of something a bit more prosaic like a Ram 3500.

[jamoni]

ZombieFred, I would like to point out that you are lecturing on how to deal with IEDs and ambushes TO PEOPLE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY DEALT WITH IEDs AND AMBUSHES.
Unless you have comparable experience, I think it would be wise to admit the difference between theory and experience.
If you have that experience, please tell us about it.

[Doctorr Fabulous]

My ideal BOV fantasy is a full size diesel quad cab, with a winch and some rammy bars and an extended fuel tank, roll flats and a camper top. Some other mods, you get the idea. But it would be an incredible burden for me to drive that sucker to work every day, and quite a bastard to park in some of the places I go.

That almost sounds as if you were describing an MRAP. Hmmm, I wonder with the draw down if they're going to be surplusing any of those...

Don't. A drunk monkey with steel stock and a welding kit could make a more comfortable, economical vehicle.

Oh wait, they did...

Jeep/Eagle, or Malibu classic?

I don't know what an MRAP is, I was thinking of something a bit more prosaic like a Ram 3500.

Pinto on a Ram 2500 chassis....

[Hoppy]

[
Hoppy “WTF is Modesto? oh an urban megalopolis in California with more than 7X the population of my own town ( one of the larger around) ignoring that its STILL larger than the urban area near me by over 50K people. you mean the rest of the US isn't California?!” Sorry you feel left out. I will try to make a list of all cities next time so no one’s feelings get hurt.

sorry the rest of us dont live in your over populated under supplied mega cities comprised of limited useful skill sets with no where to go.


sorry the rest of us arnt as dependent on a barely functioning supply system and have been used to being back woods savages "stockpiling" food,

end story you are part of cali mega system. even people i work with can not know somethings wrong till satellite internet goes down.

you are not us and we are not me.