A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Discuss those "what if" or "what would you do" scenarios you've been wondering about.

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jor-el
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A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by jor-el » Sun Jul 22, 2012 8:34 am

A crazed person decides to replay Columbine at a large public gathering.

1) Movie theater/auditorium. Darkened room, loud acoustics, few exits. 50 yards or maybe less.

2) Stadium. Lit area, likely open roof, larger area than theater. Possible range scenarios 100 yards or more.


There is a Plan A if unarmed; http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa ... -1.1119395" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There is a Plan B; http://piersmorgan.blogs.cnn.com/2012/0 ... out-alive/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Please discuss these and (hopefully) other options.
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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Murph » Sun Jul 22, 2012 9:35 am

I'd release my attack honey badger on them...

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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Paladin1 » Sun Jul 22, 2012 9:52 am

I don't know to what extent you can plan for this type of event. I CCW where allowed by law, in which case I'm going to try and engage if the opportunity presents itself. In the theater scenario, he was armored up and better armed than me with my little micro 9mm, it would have been a short gunfight.

The variables scare the hell out of me. I have 3 small children, if they are with me then shielding and getting them out is the priority. If, however, there is a large crowd and a narrow exit path then I would find them what cover/concealment I could and guard them.

Other than never going outside, what can you do? There are no guarantees.
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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jul 22, 2012 9:58 am

Columbine? That means bombs, shotguns and pistols. At 100 yards I would hunker down and search the immediate area for explosive devices. If the shooter gets any closer try to shoot him (actually the wife would probably shoot him if she were there, she has a much better shot of hitting him at that range). At 50 meters I would try to take out the shooter/s. In no case would I move closer to the shooter as he likely would have more bombs.

ETA- This isn't going to be one of those WWYD threads where the OP keeps moving the goal posts all over the field to get the answer he is looking for is it? That would be yet another disappointment.
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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by wamba » Sun Jul 22, 2012 10:06 am

Promptly point out the "no weapons" signs then smugly watch as the bad guy skulks away filled with embarrassment & shame, oh that & having my cell phone will allow me to quickly call 911. What more would I need?

OK I'm done being a smart ass, thank you for your patience. :wink:
I have no idea how I'd react in either scenario, I hope that I'd keep my wits about me, do what I could for those with me, & take advantage of a opening if I saw one. Based on past experiences I might be able to do those things after the initial "OH SHIT!!!" freezeup but that moment may be all it takes to be my undoing. To be honest nothing in my history (like most I'd assume) would prepare me for either scenario, & that's why we should all get training if & when we can.
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it, & you can bet they'll whine that nobody warned them.

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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Visionz » Sun Jul 22, 2012 10:29 am

Here is an interesting article written by Greg Ellifritz a veteran in active shooter training.
It also strengthens my belief that a 25m head shot under duress in a crowded chaotic situation is a difficult shot, unlike some would have me believe on this forum.
Great tips in this article.. It can be found here.
http://www.activeresponsetraining.net/a ... ed-citizen" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

On January 8, 2011 Jared Loughner shot 20
people in the parking lot of an Arizona grocery
store. In law enforcement terminology, this type
of crime is called an “Active Shooter” event. In
this kind of incident, one or more shooters are
trying to kill as many people as possible. The
shooters may or may not be politically
motivated. Most of these events last only a few
minutes and end up with the shooter(s) dead,
often committing suicide shortly after
encountering any form of resistance. The most
common locations where these events take
place are churches, schools, the shooter’s
workplace, and public shopping areas.
This isn’t a new phenomenon. The readers
might remember Charles Whitman and the
Texas Tower incident in the 1960s. While active
shooting events aren’t new, there seems to be
an increase in their frequency of late.
Most people don’t consider how alone they
really are if they get caught in the midst of one
of these shootings. Statistically, most are over in
less than four minutes. Unless there is already a
cop at the scene, there won’t be time for one to
arrive. Police response has been, with a couple
of exceptions, relatively inconsequential in past
active shooter incidents. They arrive in time to
clean up the mess.
Of the incidents that were stopped by people at
the scene (as opposed to incidents where the
shooter was not resisted in any way) 2/3 of the
shooters were stopped by citizens, not cops.
And in half of those cases the citizens were
unarmed! Just like what happened in Arizona, a
few citizens with incredible courage jumped on
the shooter and stopped his rampage.
If you find yourself at the scene of an active
shooter event, there are lots of things to
consider. While this list isn’t comprehensive, it
does provide some food for thought.
Do I engage or not? This is the big decision.
Just because you are carrying a gun doesn’t
mean you have a duty to protect everyone. It
will almost always be safer for you to escape
without shooting. If you engage, many negative
consequences can result. It’s a decision you
have to make in advance and it isn’t an easy
one. Do I get out safely or do I risk my life to
save others? Tough call.
Firearms- This is truly a “come as you are”
event. I know many of people who carry long
guns and a bunch of ammo in their cars to
handle an active shooter. I hate to break it to
you, but it isn’t likely to happen. Look again at
the time frames involved. These events are over
quickly. You just won’t have time to get the
zombie- killing AR-15 out of your trunk.
That means you have to solve the problem with
whatever you have on your person. How many
of you carry a little .380 or .38 snub? Do you
want to get into an active shooter gunfight with
that weapon? Realize that shots may be long
and there will be lots of innocent people running
around the shooter in a panic. There may be
more than one shooter. Can you make the shot
with the little .380 you threw in your back
pocket because you were just going to the
grocery store? If you are going to be in this
game you better have a real gun. That means at
least having a mid-sized (think Glock 26- sized
or bigger) all the time. Otherwise you are
stacking the deck against yourself before you
even start.
If you do get caught with a mouse gun,
work on getting as close to the shooter as
possible while keeping your gun hidden.
Consider quickly moving towards
headshots. You need to put the guy
down quickly and you probably don’t
have a whole lot of rounds to spare.
At what distance can you guarantee a
headshot with your carry gun? You need
to know. Put yourself on a shot timer.
Set it for two seconds. Start with the gun
in hand, 10 feet from the target. Make
the shot. If you make it in the two-
second time frame, move back five feet.
Keep doing that until you can’t reliably hit your
target in two seconds. That’s your MAXIMAL
engagement distance. Realize you will have to
close to that distance in an active shooter event
in order to make sure you don’t hit any innocent
people. Most cops I train start missing shots
around the 25 foot range
. Do you still want to
engage knowing you’ll have to run up within 25
feet of somebody who’s trying to kill everyone
he sees?
Does this mean you should only shoot
headshots? No, I’m not advocating that at all. I
think headshots are a great choice when using a
smaller caliber weapon that doesn’t hold much
ammo. If I have a full- sized gun with 8-15
rounds, I may shoot center mass. It really
depends on the circumstances. Either way, I use
the same range standard. If you can make a
two second headshot on the range, you can
probably make a two second center mass shot
at the same distance under the stress of
someone shooting at you.
If you end up in a terrorist active shooter event
with a small pistol, don’t forget about the idea of
“battlefield pickup”. Shoot one terrorist and take
his AK-47 (or whatever else he has) to shoot the
rest of them. Any rifle is a whole lot better than
a .38 snub. You may also be able to get better
armament from a dead police officer if this is a
longer engagement. Yes, these tactics can cause
some problems, but I’d rather deal with some
legal issues after the shooting than be killed
because I couldn’t make a 50-yard shot with
my .25 automatic.
If you are going to employ this strategy, you
better know how to operate all the guns you
could possibly encounter. Get some friends who
own guns that you haven’t seen and have them
show you how they work. That knowledge may
save your life someday.
Tactics- This is a huge issue that really can’t be
adequately addressed in the written format.
Recognizing that, I will give you some of the
more important things to consider and leave it
up to you to figure out how to address them or
to seek further training.
- How do I get to the shooter when everyone
else is running away from him? It’s like
swimming against the current. Do you have
“people moving” skills that can get you through
the crowd?
- How do I conceal my gun when working my
way to the shooter? If you don’t conceal it, you
may be mistaken for the shooter by a cop or
another CCW permit holder. It’s difficult
balancing the competing needs of staying low
profile, yet ready at the same time. In the
Arizona shooting, one of the men who
responded was armed. When he heard the
shots being fired, he unholstered his 9mm
pistol, and put it in his pocket (with his hand still
on it) as he made his way to confront the
shooter. That was a very smart move. He had
instant access to the gun, but no one else saw
it.
- How can I make sure there isn’t more than
one shooter and what do I do if there are
multiple attackers? Some of these active
shooters are terrorists. They may have
“handlers” or protectors watching the crowd for
armed people. Those handlers will remain low
profile and they will wait until you pull your gun
and focus on the shooter. When you do that,
they’ll shoot you in the back of the head. How
do you prevent that?
- Do you have the patience and knowledge to
exploit opportunities to act? In many active
shootings, the shooter is brought down when his
gun malfunctions or he is in the act of
reloading. It may be smart to immediately seek
cover and wait to act until you see one of these
opportunities. Do you know what a
malfunctioned gun looks like? Can you
recognize when a shooter is reloading?
- Get help! If you are in a physical confrontation
with the shooter, try to get as many people as
possible to help you. Often, in times of intense
stress, bystanders freeze and don’t know what
to do. Sometimes a little encouragement is all
that is needed to spring them into action. As
two men tackled the Arizona shooter, they
noticed he was trying to access a magazine to
reload even as they were fighting. The men
yelled out to Patricia Maisch, a 61-year old
woman who was laying on the ground nearby.
They told her to take the magazine away from
the shooter. Despite her advanced age and fear,
she did just that. In that single action, she did as
much to incapacitate the shooter as the brave
men who wrestled him to the ground. Call out
for help. You just might get it!
How do I avoid getting shot by the police?
This is a very real danger! As you whip out your
CCW gun and shoot the killer, a cop is arriving.
He sees a whole bunch of bodies and you
holding a gun. What would you do if you were
in the cop’s shoes?
After you neutralize the shooter, do you want to
look like this to the responding police?
If you choose to act, get your gun out of sight as
soon as the threat is neutralized. Holster it.
Keep your hand on the gun if you think you
need to, but don’t be in a high-profile shooting
stance. Position “Sul” is useful here too if the
threat is still active.
You may have to deal with the shooter’s gun as
well. If you disarm the shooter, the same rules
apply. Get the gun out of sight as soon as
possible! Don’t throw it away; there may be
other shooters in the crowd who can use it
against you. Quickly make it safe and hide it. If
you keep it out, people will assume that you are
the shooter.
Get to cover! Not only cover from the shooter
you just dropped, but also cover between you
and the police! Start looking for the responding
cops. Be ready to drop your gun, show your
hands and get down on the ground. Know what
is coming and follow the cops’ orders quickly.
Yelling out that you are a CCW permit holder
isn’t likely to keep you from being shot. People
experience auditory exclusion under stress and
simply don’t hear things well. Cops on the
scene will be judging all of your actions while
attempting to figure out who you are. The
person trying to help victims isn’t as likely to be
mistaken for the shooter. Yelling things like “Get
down, he has a gun!” “Get away from him, he’s
still armed!” and “Somebody call 911″ are better
than screaming that you have a CCW permit.
If you have family or friends with you, have them
call 911. Make sure they tell the police that you
are the good guy and describe what you are
wearing. If the police know there are other good
guys with guns on the scene before they arrive,
they will be looking for them. That may keep
you from getting shot.
Medical skills- After the shooting is over, there
will be lots of injured people who need help.
Everyone should know how to treat battlefield
injuries. Paramedics will not be allowed to enter
the scene until the police are sure that there is
no more danger. In a simple shooting, the
gunshot victims may be on their own for
upwards of 15 minutes before the first wave of
EMS is allowed in. Some gunshot wounds can
cause a person to bleed to death in less than
four minutes. Do the math. If you or someone
you care about is a victim, you’ll want to be able
to provide some basic trauma care until the pros
get there.
Battlefield trauma is different from the standard
injuries most people see. Uncontrolled bleeding
is the leading cause of preventable battlefield
death. Worry about this first. Plug the holes!
Grab whatever you can find, place it over the
wound and squeeze hard. If there is spurting
arterial bleeding, make a tourniquet and apply it
2-3 inches above the wound.
Author teaching tourniquet
application
Battlefield first aid isn’t hard. If you can stop
bleeding with improvised pressure dressings and
tourniquets, patch a sucking chest wound,
prevent a tension pneumothorax, and know how
to position a casualty to keep his airway clear,
you will save lives. There are training classes
available. What I described above can be
learned in about four hours.
This article isn’t a comprehensive review on
active shooter strategy. What I hope to do is to
familiarize some of you with the issues and get
you to think about your response. Get some
training and stay safe!

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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by RickOShea » Sun Jul 22, 2012 1:47 pm

Paladin1 wrote:I don't know to what extent you can plan for this type of event. I CCW where allowed by law, in which case I'm going to try and engage if the opportunity presents itself. In the theater scenario, he was armored up and better armed than me with my little micro 9mm, it would have been a short gunfight.
Now I'm hearing reports that he was just wearing a tac-vest with a bunch of pouches on it.
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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by bae » Sun Jul 22, 2012 2:04 pm

Plan C: Live in a place without restrictive rules on carrying my concealed weapons in public places, carry my RMR'd Glock everywhere, keep my training current, and do what the circumstances dictate when something comes up.

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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Czechnology » Sun Jul 22, 2012 2:35 pm

RickOShea wrote:
Paladin1 wrote:I don't know to what extent you can plan for this type of event. I CCW where allowed by law, in which case I'm going to try and engage if the opportunity presents itself. In the theater scenario, he was armored up and better armed than me with my little micro 9mm, it would have been a short gunfight.
Now I'm hearing reports that he was just wearing a tac-vest with a bunch of pouches on it.
This is true, from everything I can gather. The owner of the company he bought his gear from said it was just a tac-vest.

But you'd never know that IRL, and so it's irrelevant. He'd be a dark blob behind a muzzle flash, or a silhouette if he passed between you and the screen. His gear is completely irrelevant to a WWYD scenario, because you'd never know.

And again, IME, most states do not put the force of law behind "No Guns Allowed" signs, unless you break the law by trespassing (refusing to leave when they've asked you to). Shit, in my state I can carry anywhere that's not a federal building, a circuit courthouse, or 2 named municipal court houses. (YMMV, IANAL, Check your own state laws.)

Yes that means I can carry into elementary schools and Police Stations. :ohdear:
Nothing is ever what it seems, but everything is exactly what it is.
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Re: Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Visionz » Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:01 pm

Czechnology wrote: Yes that means I can carry into elementary schools and Police Stations. :ohdear:

You are aware there are federal laws as well????
No you can't

http://www.justice.gov/usao/ut/psn/docu ... uncard.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Check section V 18 U.S.C. 922(q)(1)(A)

You can face 5 years for that... A mod on ZS talking about illegal activity.. I never thought I would see the day...lol
Last edited by Visionz on Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:20 pm

Visionz wrote:
Czechnology wrote: Yes that means I can carry into elementary schools and Police Stations. :ohdear:
Are you fucking kidding me???
You are aware there are federal laws as well????
No you can't

http://www.justice.gov/usao/ut/psn/docu ... uncard.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Check section V 18 U.S.C. 922(q)(1)(A)

You can face 5 years for that... A mod on ZS talking about illegal activity.. I never thought I would see the day...lol
You are really starting to annoy me with your bad information. Do some fucking research before spouting off garbage. Here is the whole law:
18 USC § 922 (q)(2) --

(A) It shall be unlawful for any individual knowingly to possess a firearm that has moved in or that otherwise affects interstate or foreign commerce at a place that the individual knows, or has reasonable cause to believe, is a school zone.

(B) Subparagraph (A) does not apply to the possession of a firearm—
(i) on private property not part of school grounds;
(ii) if the individual possessing the firearm is licensed to do so by the State in which the school zone is located or a political subdivision of the State, and the law of the State or political subdivision requires that, before an individual obtains such a license, the law enforcement authorities of the State or political subdivision verify that the individual is qualified under law to receive the license;
(iii) that is—
(I) not loaded; and
(II) in a locked container, or a locked firearms rack that is on a motor vehicle;
(iv) by an individual for use in a program approved by a school in the school zone;
(v) by an individual in accordance with a contract entered into between a school in the school zone and the individual or an employer of the individual;
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Re: Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by RickOShea » Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:22 pm

Visionz wrote:
Czechnology wrote: Yes that means I can carry into elementary schools and Police Stations. :ohdear:
Are you fucking kidding me???
You are aware there are federal laws as well????
No you can't

http://www.justice.gov/usao/ut/psn/docu ... uncard.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Check section V 18 U.S.C. 922(q)(1)(A)

You can face 5 years for that... A mod on ZS talking about illegal activity.. I never thought I would see the day...lol
Check out the sections I high-lighted in "red":
18 USC § 921(a)(25) The term “school zone” means—

(A) in, or on the grounds of, a public, parochial or private school; or

(B) within a distance of 1,000 feet from the grounds of a public, parochial or private school.

18 USC § 922 (q)(2) --

(A) It shall be unlawful for any individual knowingly to possess a firearm that has moved in or that otherwise affects interstate or foreign commerce at a place that the individual knows, or has reasonable cause to believe, is a school zone.

(B) Subparagraph (A) does not apply to the possession of a firearm—

(i) on private property not part of school grounds;

(ii) if the individual possessing the firearm is licensed to do so by the State in which the school zone is located or a political subdivision of the State, and the law of the State or political subdivision requires that, before an individual obtains such a license, the law enforcement authorities of the State or political subdivision verify that the individual is qualified under law to receive the license;

(iii) that is—
(I) not loaded; and

(II) in a locked container, or a locked firearms rack that is on a motor vehicle;

(iv) by an individual for use in a program approved by a school in the school zone;

(v) by an individual in accordance with a contract entered into between a school in the school zone and the individual or an employer of the individual;

(vi) by a law enforcement officer acting in his or her official capacity; or

(vii) that is unloaded and is possessed by an individual while traversing school premises for the purpose of gaining access to public or private lands open to hunting, if the entry on school premises is authorized by school authorities.

Edit: Ooops, once again Blacksmith was quicker on the draw. :ooh:
Last edited by RickOShea on Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:24 pm

The back of my permit says no court houses and no airports. I can live with that since I only fly on official travel anyway. Also can't carry while arrested. You think that would be a no brainer but crooks are stupid.
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Re: Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Czechnology » Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:25 pm

Visionz wrote:You can face 5 years for that... A mod on ZS talking about illegal activity.. I never thought I would see the day...lol

You haven't. Stop listening to the bees.

ETA: Hey, turns out you can close reports against you! :clap:
Nothing is ever what it seems, but everything is exactly what it is.
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Re: Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by proteus » Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:25 pm

Czechnology wrote:
Visionz wrote:You can face 5 years for that... A mod on ZS talking about illegal activity.. I never thought I would see the day...lol

You haven't. Stop listening to the bees.

ETA: Hey, turns out you can close reports against you! :clap:

Its good to be the King...
When in doubt fire for effect...

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Re: Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Czechnology » Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:37 pm

proteus wrote:
Czechnology wrote:
Visionz wrote:You can face 5 years for that... A mod on ZS talking about illegal activity.. I never thought I would see the day...lol

You haven't. Stop listening to the bees.

ETA: Hey, turns out you can close reports against you! :clap:

Its good to be the King...
Pfft. If this place were a kingdom I'd be one of 6 unpaid cops in the capital city. :lol:
Nothing is ever what it seems, but everything is exactly what it is.
Vicarious_Lee wrote:If Nutnfacny were an 8-ounce chicken fried steak, he'd come with 72 ounces of batter around it that you have to slash through to get to it.

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Re: Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:42 pm

Czechnology wrote:
proteus wrote:
Czechnology wrote:
Visionz wrote:You can face 5 years for that... A mod on ZS talking about illegal activity.. I never thought I would see the day...lol

You haven't. Stop listening to the bees.

ETA: Hey, turns out you can close reports against you! :clap:

Its good to be the King...
Pfft. If this place were a kingdom I'd be one of 6 unpaid cops in the capital city. :lol:
King of the WHHaattt?

Guess I will get back to digging with my stick. Maybe they will give us new sticks next year?

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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:59 pm

Well it starts with preparation.
1. Know your limitations. Then train to exceed them.
2. Assess the situation in light of your capabilities. Can I close and get a shot in? Can I egress? Is it conceivable for me to hunker down and try to get others into a more defensible location? Can I provide medical aid?
3. Act according to the above. There's no one answer with the limited information provided. We could even run one hundred simulations and get to one hundred and seven different answers.

What we cannot do is try to set up hard and fast rules. Nor can we use our current limitations as excuses, when the opportunity exists to train beyond them. Visionz has repeatedly pointed out that extended range shooting under non-optimal conditions is tough. That's correct. Killing armed people is tough. It's tougher under non-ideal conditions. I could point out all the times that individuals have exceeded the capabilities of their weapons under high stress, or I could simply point out that they did it by trainign, not by making excuses.

And for the record, the majority of police officers don't train for shit. Jor-El may be able to back me up on this, but the last Massad Ayoob study I read about this concluded that most officers do only the bare minimum of firearms training, which is why many departments have 70 or 80 percent miss rates under fire. Military guys miss a lot too. That's why the guys I respected most were the ones that spent their own money and time to go train outside of their mandatory requirements, armed and unarmed.

And in light of these situations, maybe it's time to consider retiring that 3" pocket pistol in favor of something with a longer effective range, and turning some of that couch time into training time.
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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by RickOShea » Sun Jul 22, 2012 5:04 pm

Doc Torr wrote:
And for the record, the majority of police officers don't train for shit. Jor-El may be able to back me up on this, but the last Massad Ayoob study I read about this concluded that most officers do only the bare minimum of firearms training, which is why many departments have 70 or 80 percent miss rates under fire. Military guys miss a lot too. That's why the guys I respected most were the ones that spent their own money and time to go train outside of their mandatory requirements, armed and unarmed.
Last I heard, LEOs averaged a 12% hit rate, and civies averaged a 20% hit rate.....But, admittedly, I read that a few years ago and don't know if the averages have gotten better.
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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jul 22, 2012 5:13 pm

Doc Torr wrote:
And in light of these situations, maybe it's time to consider retiring that 3" pocket pistol in favor of something with a longer effective range, and turning some of that couch time into training time.
Don't assume that because something has a 3" barrel you can't be accurate with it at relatively longer ranges because that is not true. I can easily hit a stationary man sized target at 100 meters with my G27. The wife can easily hit a soda bottle at the same range with her sub compact Kimber. All it takes is good weapons and a bit of practice

Most people don't practice at those ranges which is a big mistake IMO.

The bigger problem than accuracy is the amount of energy left on a round out of such a small barrel after a long trip, especially with the .45. The drop is almost 2' at that range and the energy levels about half. But you can still hit stuff.
Last I heard, LEOs averaged a 12% hit rate, and civies averaged a 20% hit rate
Apples and bananas. There are too many differences between police shootings and civilian shooting to be an equitable comparison.
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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by RickOShea » Sun Jul 22, 2012 5:34 pm

Blacksmith wrote:
Last I heard, LEOs averaged a 12% hit rate, and civies averaged a 20% hit rate
Apples and bananas. There are too many differences between police shootings and civilian shooting to be an equitable comparison.
Why, because the police are usually already in "alert mode" before they're involved in a shooting, while a lot of civies are defending against a sudden, unforeseen attack?
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Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by jor-el » Sun Jul 22, 2012 10:51 pm

Doc Torr wrote: What we cannot do is try to set up hard and fast rules. Nor can we use our current limitations as excuses, when the opportunity exists to train beyond them. Visionz has repeatedly pointed out that extended range shooting under non-optimal conditions is tough. That's correct. Killing armed people is tough. It's tougher under non-ideal conditions. I could point out all the times that individuals have exceeded the capabilities of their weapons under high stress, or I could simply point out that they did it by training, not by making excuses.

And for the record, the majority of police officers don't train for shit. Jor-El may be able to back me up on this, but the last Massad Ayoob study I read about this concluded that most officers do only the bare minimum of firearms training, which is why many departments have 70 or 80 percent miss rates under fire. Military guys miss a lot too. That's why the guys I respected most were the ones that spent their own money and time to go train outside of their mandatory requirements, armed and unarmed.
I'll agree on the first point. You will likely never get defense conditions that are optimal because the active shooter usually plans his/her attack with getting all the advantages with HIM, not with you. Training and practice will be a greater deciding factor for your survival. This is a variable you decide on. It is limited only by your personal will and drive.

I agree on the second point. Far too many big city cops rely not on individual training, but on group aid via the police radio. Yeah, it brings the cavalry riding over the hill, but numbers don't always spell success.
In Miami, Tyler Texas, and North Hollywood officers had numbers against rifle armed perps.
Miami ended with 75% casualties with 2 fatalities and 2 crippled. Tyler and North Hollywood ended with similar results and the engagements ended with rifle armed cops deciding the battles.
Off-duty encounters really put LEOs in no better positions than civilians, with a possible edge being fraternal recognition once on-duty cops show up on scene.
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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by DannusMaximus » Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:11 am

RickOShea wrote:
Blacksmith wrote:
Last I heard, LEOs averaged a 12% hit rate, and civies averaged a 20% hit rate
Apples and bananas. There are too many differences between police shootings and civilian shooting to be an equitable comparison.
Why, because the police are usually already in "alert mode" before they're involved in a shooting, while a lot of civies are defending against a sudden, unforeseen attack?
No. Multiple officers being involved in most shootings skews the hit/miss rate.

It's probably arguable that police are more in alert mode during their shooting incidents as well. Many LEO shootings are reactions to bona fide ambush situations, while many others occur due to incredibly rapid deterioration of an otherwise mostly stable situation. There aren't a whole lot of runs where police start out with their pistols drawn and ready to get into a gunfight. It would be interesting to see how often officer shootings are intiated when the officers actually have their pistols drawn versus when they start out holstered. I suspect that most police gunfights occur in situations where the cop had no intention of getting into that gunfight, much like their civilian CCW counterparts.

Anyway, it's kind of ironic that in our local department the average beat officer gets 'tactical' training about once per year, while their SWAT counterparts do that shit all the time. Since the initial responders to the overwhelming majority of active shooter situations will be your average flatfoot, not one of the high-speed low drag types, that seems to be a major soft spot in officer training, at least locally.
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Watson: "Yes, I thought it as well to take them."
Holmes: "Most certainly! Keep your revolver near you night and day, and never relax your precautions..."

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Re: A Cape Scenario 1: The Movie Theater and other

Post by RickOShea » Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:19 am

DannusMaximus wrote:
RickOShea wrote:
Blacksmith wrote:
Last I heard, LEOs averaged a 12% hit rate, and civies averaged a 20% hit rate
Apples and bananas. There are too many differences between police shootings and civilian shooting to be an equitable comparison.
Why, because the police are usually already in "alert mode" before they're involved in a shooting, while a lot of civies are defending against a sudden, unforeseen attack?
No. Multiple officers being involved in most shootings skews the hit/miss rate.

It's probably arguable that police are more in alert mode during their shooting incidents as well. Many LEO shootings are reactions to bona fide ambush situations, while many others occur due to incredibly rapid deterioration of an otherwise mostly stable situation. There aren't a whole lot of runs where police start out with their pistols drawn and ready to get into a gunfight. It would be interesting to see how often officer shootings are intiated when the officers actually have their pistols drawn versus when they start out holstered. I suspect that most police gunfights occur in situations where the cop had no intention of getting into that gunfight, much like their civilian CCW counterparts.

Anyway, it's kind of ironic that in our local department the average beat officer gets 'tactical' training about once per year, while their SWAT counterparts do that shit all the time. Since the initial responders to the overwhelming majority of active shooter situations will be your average flatfoot, not one of the high-speed low drag types, that seems to be a major soft spot in officer training, at least locally.
Interesting....I'm not sure how "multiple officers" skew the numbers when we're talking about percentages.....And I should think that suppressing fire would be frowned upon in most city/urban areas (but I suppose that wouldn't stop it from happening).

"Back-in-the-day", the LEOs would just walk right up to your window and start talking to you during "routine traffic stops". But for as long as I've been driving, they stop at the back corner of the vehicle, place their hand on their holstered duty pistol, and start giving you instructions to get your DL and proof-of-insurance out and in your hands where they can see them, before they approach the window.
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.
Sumdood wrote:Welcome to 2020. I would list all the rules here, but there are too many and most of them are made up as we go. Just be prepared to be punished for something.

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