A Raider's Story ( a must watch)

[Nalukai]

I'm pretty sure a lot of you have seen this already, but this is a must watch for anyone worried about PAW or SHTF scenarios with raiding... makes you wonder what would you really do versus this.

[phil_in_cs]

This thread is a place to start: viewtopic.php?f=39&t=46340

edit: read this one too viewtopic.php?f=31&t=31865

This is a serious issue for most that consider themselves preppers, not the least of which because preppers tend to stylize themselves as lone wolf survivors, and there's no way around your problem without having a largish group. I suppose 4 good fighters could keep 8 at bay - if alerted. But if the raiders snipe Adam and Bob before anyone know they are there, Charlie and Don won't be able to get it done.

Defense in place is easier than any sort of attack, but it does require physical preparations for defense, and either good watch or active patrolling depending on the area involved.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

That video is pretty much a play by play of FerFAL's vision of rural defence in a Collapse/PAW.

He talks about rural defence in this thread (just ignore page 1) ---> viewtopic.php?f=6&t=36767&hilit=FerFAL&start=24

In other threads on the subject here over the years we've discussed things like LP/OPs with protected comms and Quick Reaction Forces in SUV's; Afghani style compounds; Mexican haciendas and the one I now think ultimately has the best chance of success - the German burg model where everyone in the group lives in a fortified town at night and goes out in force each day to work the fields which is the model FerFAL alludes to in the thread I linked above (and the model that is adopted by the survivors in Kathy in FL's fictional work MJOTZY fwiw) - it would be able to support/provide enough able bodies to give a group as represented in the video serious issues by dint of the sheer weight of numbers/volume of fire alone.

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[Manimal2878]

Is this a fictional reading of some sort? It strikes me as ridiculous.

This is why people form towns and villages, systems of law and mutual collaboration. Why wouldn't people be reforming societal protections after a PAW scenario as well? Humans form civilizations to stop these kinds of issues. How long could a group of raiders like this really operate before a group organizes a posse and hunts them down?

I guess those that fancy themselves loan survivors living in the wilderness might have to worry about this sort of thing before the raiders were eventually killed by a larger stronger group, but this is one reason why I don't think rural retreats are really a great idea. Forming strong communities that people are invested in and will work and live toward maintaining them rather than let them slip into anarchy is a better plan.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

That seems to be working out real well in certain parts of Africa and Mexico now don't it?

You should read FerFAL and Selco's blogs - they are actual historical descriptions of when civillisation collapsed in Argentina and the Balkans and stuff like this actually went down, neither of which can be called 'third world' countries.

Gangs like MS-13 have already infiltrated the US Military to 'steal' training, the Zetas in Mexico are ex-special forces types - in a severe economic downturn or other "slow motion apocalypse" it is not unlikely to believe that roving groups of "bandits" would do exactly as covered in the video. The "civillization" you talk about might be twenty years away - the American Cowboy Wild West lasted that long before "civillization" took.

Hell, American ranchers near the Mexican border are already on edge for this sort of thing.

edit: I agree with you on the need for strong, resilient communtys which is why I said the German burg model is possibly the best way to go in the face of such threats.

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[bae]

My plans involve living in a remote community full of self-sufficient folks with a variety of skills, who band together to solve common problems.

I've been living there for years now...

So when the highly-trained band of raiders arrive, first they will have to negotiate the hours on the sea exposed to observation to get to our island, then they will encounter a community that isn't particularly tolerant of their antics, and that has the means and will to deal with the situation.

[Blacksmith]

I got some lulz from a few of the pics.

Fantasy PAW is very unlikely in the US, but not impossible. Well trained, skilled and led gangs are going to be rare; but also not impossible. These gangs will be different than drug gangs which have a strong profit motive and can recruit better soldiers for their Army to fight the drug wars.

WWID? Now didn't they just say they will be looking for intel on me? Best not post it on line.

[MacAttack]

The internet will be down for the PAW.

Sorry about the inconvenience, but you don't have to worry about the bad guys finding out about you then from what you post now.

Though bad guys now might find a few tidbits out about you.



I just can't see a wandering gang of thugs lasting long unless they recruit heavily. And they would need a nice cash of resources to entice solders a year after the PAW starts. By then things would be settled down and most people will be working normal type jobs instead of playing solder. They would have to clear out a WIDE area in order to make sure they were the ONLY armed thugs around. Let alone the only armed people around.

Trying to play wandering thug north of the Mason Dixon line will be a little tough in the middle of winter. Wandering around in the middle of winter would suck. They would have little chance of hunting enough to eat and camping out in the wild in 20 below and 4 feet of snow would get a bit tiring after a while.
They would have to find a place to bunk for the winter and that is when they would stand the biggest chance of being the hunted instead of the hunters.


Running around playing bad guy in a world that just wants to get back to normal would get harder and harder as time goes on. All your doing is pissing more and more people off until one day they just get up and come after you. And they will know exactly were you are and exactly how big you are. And you will not know how big the posse will be.

But you'll have fun for a while.

[RoneKiln]

Given the lone wolf nature of a lot of preppers, and the large number of youth enamored with action movies that are heavily involved in paintball and airsoft that think a PAW would be a good excuse to go pillaging, I can see this being an issue.

My primary defense would be in numbers. It started with referencing "You've settled down with 5 people." Not me if I can help it. I want a lot more people in my community than that. Eight to twelve guys can still do a world of hurt when ambushing a small village, but a world of hurt will come down on them in return. And their guys waiting to ambush us when we run away are going to get bored waiting while we are hunting down their buddies that sniped my neighbors.

If someone tries to burn out a neighbor don't hunker down and wait to be next. Go bail out your neighbor.

[LowKey]

Anyone who thinks that this wouldn't be a risk should consider how well you would fare if some of our better trained posters here weren't good guys.
Well, those well trained posters of ours aren't the only ones who received such training.
Thousands, possibly ten's of thousands have received that level of training over the last decade. Hundred's of thousands have received training only slightly less advanced.
If even just a small percentage of them choose to be bad guys, and history and human nature show that a percentage will, the threat of very well trained bad guys roving about looking to take what they want will be very real.
A raid by such groups wouldn't have to be common to be a real problem...the casualties they would likely inflict on a less prepared location on their first raid would be devastating enough even if they were ultimately wiped out.
Thousands of rounds get fired in combat, most don't hit anyone. Doesn't mean you should ignore them as you might be the recipient of one of the few that do.

Some disasters have a low risk of occurrence but a very high potential for catastrophic loss, so as unlikely as they might be they're worth being prepared to deal with if and when once you've addressed the more likely disasters.

[Silent Kube]

Even though it's a bit dated and admittedly another work of fiction, Lucifer's Hammer is a good read. It shows exactly how a group like this might function.

SPOILERS!

If I remember right, the core was a squad of soldiers that deserted who joined up with an inner city gang. (There was a third element I won't mention per rules). The way they increased their numbers was to kidnap survivors, lock them in a cage and give them a choice of joining the group by way of eating human flesh or being one of those eaten if they refused. This forced cannibalism helped to remove them from society in their own minds. There was also of course a fair amount of brain washing.

[Blacksmith]

The internet will be down for the PAW.

Sorry about the inconvenience, but you don't have to worry about the bad guys finding out about you then from what you post now.

I don't know about that. There is internet a lot of places where these types attacks are already occurring. Iraq, Afghanistan, Mexico Lots of Africa just to name a few. I don't think it is too hard to imagine a situation whereby we still have some services even when everything else has gone to hell in hand basket.

[MacAttack]

I get the fact that bad guys are going to be around. Can't miss that one.


But exactly how do you plan on living a somewhat normal life, farming, hunting, gathering, trading and meeting up with other good folks all the while dodging snipers and hiding in your basements?


Saying your going to set up some type of closed or remote or walled community is NOT even close to viable.

Nothing you do will even come close to stopping a semi trained sniper named Bubba who has time on his side.


Unless your one of the lucky few who live on a remote island there is no hidden Shangrilla no one will ever find. You will be found. And the longer your in one area the higher the chance you will be found by more people.The longer you go without trouble the more your guard will drop. Its just human nature.
Then one quiet day your strumming your banjo on the porch and BAM your good boots and dog are someone elses.


You can hide inside your basement until someone comes by and tells you the government is back up and running and your safe or you can go about your life and just chance it. Like you do today.

What your doing today to stay safe is pretty much exactly what your going to be doing then.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

I get the fact that bad guys are going to be around. Can't miss that one.


But exactly how do you plan on living a somewhat normal life, farming, hunting, gathering, trading and meeting up with other good folks all the while dodging snipers and hiding in your basements?


Saying your going to set up some type of closed or remote or walled community is NOT even close to viable.

Nothing you do will even come close to stopping a semi trained sniper named Bubba who has time on his side.


Unless your one of the lucky few who live on a remote island there is no hidden Shangrilla no one will ever find. You will be found. And the longer your in one area the higher the chance you will be found by more people.The longer you go without trouble the more your guard will drop. Its just human nature.
Then one quiet day your strumming your banjo on the porch and BAM your good boots and dog are someone elses.


You can hide inside your basement until someone comes by and tells you the government is back up and running and your safe or you can go about your life and just chance it. Like you do today.

What your doing today to stay safe is pretty much exactly what your going to be doing then.

I agree about life going on except for the bit about doing nothing. Even in a "run of the mill" disaster being wary, posting guards or patrols, running rotating overwatches, etc are wise things to do. For example - Looters, much?

There are plenty of threads discussing such "neighbourhood watches".

Again, folks should spend some time reading FerFAL, Selco, etc.
Raptor's experiences in Katrina involve situations where guys who could afford it had private security doing guard duty, there is no reason a community could not supply the man power themselves from amongst their own numbers.

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[Silent Kube]

I look at it the same way I did when I used to use "the club" to keep my car from being stolen before I could afford an alarm. Maybe it wasn't a foolproof method to protect my car, but the little things I can do to make it more difficult for the bad guys might just make them go look for an easier target. In other words, you do what you can and hope for the best.

[bae]

Unless your one of the lucky few who live on a remote island there is no hidden Shangrilla no one will ever find.

It's not a matter of luck, it is a matter of will. Almost everybody who lives on the island I live on decided to move here, or stay here, on purpose, and arranged their life to be able to do so. People from rich to poor, young to old.

So if you are concerned about barbarian hordes or whatnot, start planning well ahead of time, and do what you can before they are at the gates.

[Nalukai]

I seen an episode of gangland on spike that was on how gang members like you said were infiltrating the military to get training to take it back to other members. They mentioned MS13, La Familia, BGD, Hell's Angels, and a few more... but the scary thing is that they estimate about 10% of our forces being current gang members; now thats a lot of guys that can go sour when SHTF even worse when all their people have knowledge and training from them... I've even heard of ppl over in Iraq/Afghanistan sending back weapons taken down piece by piece in the mail so when they get home they can put them back together ( i think that was on gangland as well)

[Einher]

I seen an episode of gangland on spike that was on how gang members like you said were infiltrating the military to get training to take it back to other members.

I've heard this before too, and I have trouble imagining a gang sending their own members into the military where they will swear into a brotherhood that is not that gang.
Something to do with a dog's ability to serve two masters or something.

It seems more likely that recruitment of members who already have some military experience or background are more valuable candidates, and can also then disseminate effective tactics and defensive/offensive methods to their more thuggish counterparts.

They mentioned MS13, La Familia, BGD, Hell's Angels, and a few more... but the scary thing is that they estimate about 10% of our forces being current gang members; now thats a lot of guys that can go sour when SHTF even worse when all their people have knowledge and training from them...

I understand the '10% of our forces' statement is intended to ultimately represent a numerical statement about military experience among gang members, but from your phrasing I am unsure if you meant:

A) 10% (1 in 10) of gang members have previous military experience or;
B) 10% (1 in 10) of people with prior military service are strongly gang affiliated or are active gang members.

I think it more likely you mean the former (which is fairly believable), and not the latter (which is an significantly larger number).


EDIT: On topic, I found this video to fairly well illustrate (among many things) the reasoning why many consider game getters like .22 lr and .410 (both of which are common, very utilitarian calibers) not enough for their defensive needs.

It also hints at the necessity of seclusion and low visibility/detectability, (as if the enemy cannot find you they cannot engage you), and the necessity of a community able to protect itself.

I'm glad this video is only missing some kind of obligatory PSA announcement at the end to "be prepared" and consider the possibility of the worst result, and does not appear to be some lunatics' manifesto.

"Stealth and concealment is undoubtedly the best armor and defense, similarly; surprise and unpredictability the best weapon and offense".

[MacAttack]

I agree about life going on except for the bit about doing nothing. Even in a "run of the mill" disaster being wary, posting guards or patrols, running rotating overwatches, etc are wise things to do. For example - Looters, much?

There are plenty of threads discussing such "neighbourhood watches".

Again, folks should spend some time reading FerFAL, Selco, etc.
Raptor's experiences in Katrina involve situations where guys who could afford it had private security doing guard duty, there is no reason a community could not supply the man power themselves from amongst their own numbers.

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I'm not saying to do nothing. What I'm trying to say is that you will never stop a sniper. Or three.

Yes of course make it difficult for the bad guys to get to you.
Exactly how do you plan on doing it? Roving patrols of grand mothers and 10 year old boys? A community is made up of a bunch of different types of people and most do not make passable solders. And exactly how many of the physically fit ones are willing to be active bullet catchers?
Think of it this way.
You have 24 people in your group.
12 men 12 women.
8 are to old or to young to patrol leaving you 16 possibles.
4 out of the 8 women are willing to patrol and 6 out of the 8 men are willing.
So that 10 possibles and none trained more than a mall cop.
To keep 24 people alive you might just have an area three miles in circumference to grow and hunt on that you all call your own.
Do you think 10 people can patrol that large of an area effectively? 24 hours a day? 7 days a week?

You just took 10 of your best workers out of the production side of things and put them into the consumer side of things.


It takes a good sized community to afford solders/patrols.
Back when cities were walled in part of what kept people from waring all the time was winter and the harvest and planting seasons. No one wanted to interfere with production. So war was mainly conducted in mid summer, the growing season. When people could be spared and production was not effected. Thus almost everyone was capable of being a solder then. So smaller communities could provide solders sometimes.

Your talking about solders all the time and that takes quite a bit more.

The best bet would be to hire a sheriff and keep him around all the time and let him call up a posse when needed. Or get together with other communities and everyone pulls together to provide enough for a full time army. of course they will have to cover a larger area but that's the breaks.

But then again that goes against everyones idea of hiding in the woods with a few buds and family.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

I agree about life going on except for the bit about doing nothing. Even in a "run of the mill" disaster being wary, posting guards or patrols, running rotating overwatches, etc are wise things to do. For example - Looters, much?

There are plenty of threads discussing such "neighbourhood watches".

Again, folks should spend some time reading FerFAL, Selco, etc.
Raptor's experiences in Katrina involve situations where guys who could afford it had private security doing guard duty, there is no reason a community could not supply the man power themselves from amongst their own numbers.

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I'm not saying to do nothing. What I'm trying to say is that you will never stop a sniper. Or three.

Yes of course make it difficult for the bad guys to get to you.
Exactly how do you plan on doing it? Roving patrols of grand mothers and 10 year old boys? A community is made up of a bunch of different types of people and most do not make passable solders. And exactly how many of the physically fit ones are willing to be active bullet catchers?
Think of it this way.
You have 24 people in your group.
12 men 12 women.
8 are to old or to young to patrol leaving you 16 possibles.
2 out of the 8 women are willing to patrol and 6 out of the 8 men are willing.
So that 10 possibles and none trained more than a mall cop.
To keep 24 people alive you might just have an area three miles in circumference to grow and hunt on that you all call your own.
Do you think 10 people can patrol that large of an area effectively? 24 hours a day? 7 days a week?

You just took 10 of your best workers out of the production side of things and put them into the consumer side of things.


It takes a good sized community to afford solders/patrols.
Back when cities were walled in part of what kept people from waring all the time was winter and the harvest and planting seasons. No one wanted to interfere with production. So war was mainly conducted in mid summer, the growing season. When people could be spared and production was not effected. Thus almost everyone was capable of being a solder then. So smaller communities could provide solders sometimes.

Your talking about solders all the time and that takes quite a bit more.

The best bet would be to hire a sheriff and keep him around all the time and let him call up a posse when needed. Or get together with other communities and everyone pulls together to provide enough for a full time army. of course they will have to cover a larger area but that's the breaks.

But then again that goes against everyones idea of hiding in the woods with a few buds and family.

I think we're actually agreeing more than disagreeing here.

All the points you raise are why I've settled on the German burg model as being the most secure theoretically.

It affords larger numbers to be supported and therefore allows more people for the production side of things. Security at night is by way of everyone (livestock included in some cases) coming in from working their fields/gardens/pastures/traplines/etc and staying "in town" which is then sealed for the night. It requires a larger community to pull together to provide mutual surplus and security while allowing individual pursuits.

A brief look at the Old West and the similar period of Australian history shows the isolated homesteader is exactly that, isolated and short on numbers for the production/consumption/security equation to boot as you so rightly say.

A co-ordinated security arrangement would require someone to be 'head of security' like the sherriff/posse model you mention but I don't think the large standing warband thing is quite neccessary beyond a core group... every citizen a soldier when the time requires it and all that, the old walled city model you referenced always had "town watches and town militias" and in these days of modern firearms even Grandma can provide serious firepower from behind a barricaded and hardened fighting position.

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[MacAttack]

To a point we do agree.

But as soon as you send everyone out to the fields to work they are targets to the modern sniper.


The Burg style town is the best for a village. I do agree there. Larger populations would provide even better protection. And there is a lower limit to the needed numbers.
The main point I am trying to make is that for the majority of posters here, they just don't have the needed numbers in their plans. Even if they do not have the lone wolf plan they just don't have a large enough group to provide the needed protection after they settle down for a long term life style at their BOL.
Once you give up mobility for a defense style then you become a standing target.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

To a point we do agree.

But as soon as you send everyone out to the fields to work they are targets to the modern sniper.

I agree. All you can do is use counter sniper techniques. Some good ones are addressed here ---> viewtopic.php?f=31&t=31865 not so much the stuff regarding light disclipline, etc when inside when it comes to defending the "people in the fields" but the stuff from guys like TheGunslinger who is a former officer in the Australian Commando Regiment (4RAR) is worthy of examination in this regard. The tactics he suggests are typical of their ways of doing things such as aggressively denying areas where a sniper will want to set up, attacking a potential sniper's "centre of gravity", etc.

That being said I agree with the general feeling in that thread, and yours here - if the threat is a determined sniper with time and some skill on his side someone on your side of the equation is going to die. In that thread Molon Labe mentions one situation where he got seven confirmeds out of eight shots from one location before the people he was shooting at figured out what was what and fixed his location and he had to move. A group with small numbers versus a bad guy with talent like that is completely fucked in one exchange.

The Burg style town is the best for a village. I do agree there. Larger populations would provide even better protection. And there is a lower limit to the needed numbers.
The main point I am trying to make is that for the majority of posters here, they just don't have the needed numbers in their plans. Even if they do not have the lone wolf plan they just don't have a large enough group to provide the needed protection after they settle down for a long term life style at their BOL.
Once you give up mobility for a defense style then you become a standing target.

Yep, once you run the numbers it's not a good equation for a small band or family group against the kind of threat in the video. Even FerFAL stated in the first thread I linked that as much as he loves the countryside his ideal is closer to the edge of town because of what he's seen and heard of happening to isolated farmers during the Argentinian collapse.

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[DTyra]

Personally, I'm less concerned with "raiders" than I am with a local government that may have the short term goal of providing for its electoral base. What if the local sheriff's posse decides your preps are better utilized to feed those who voted for the the Sheriff in the past? What if for the "good of the community" the local mayor directs the local police to confiscate goods and supplies held by "hoarders" for the good of the collective? Anyone who prepared for emergencies might be responsible for the emergency, right? Sound far fetched? Remember when it seemed nuclear war was inevitable and anyone who prepared for it was making it more likely? I do. People can be counted on to make their position palatable by making you the bad guy. You prepared and now you won't share, ergo, you are the bad guy and must be punished.

[MacAttack]

Make sure you don't elect those types now and you'll stand a less chance of it happening then.

Don't let anyone know your prepped. OPSEC.

You can think of every bad situation now but you'll never be prepped for them all at the same time.
Go alone and run the risk of being a gang target. Run with the group and run the risk of being forced to share.

For me I would think about the greater risk to my, or my loved ones lives, itself. The greater direct threat would be the gang taking my life and thus stuff.
If the group takes my food then its up to them to make sure I eat in the short term future. Get in the chow line, some of its yours anyways.




As a member of a group that comes together and might end up sharing supplies the one thing that I would hate would be the lone wolf we gave a chance to join us. Then coming in a week after and telling us some tale of being robbed by a gang and now he needs to join us.
Sorry but the gates are locked now.