Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Discuss those "what if" or "what would you do" scenarios you've been wondering about.

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Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by cjm3fl » Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:03 am

"Something" happened. You find yourself in a PAW.
There is a good reduction in population over the first few weeks due to deaths and evacuations. Local governments (city, county and state) have pretty much vanished within the first week. The military deployed to help, but they haven't been seen since the second week.

You planned pretty well so that you and your small group have food, water, first-aid supplies, some security (firearms) to hold out in your BIL location for 3 months. If you stretch it...you can go 4+ months.
Your BIL is your primary residence. It's in a heavy residential area of a good sized metropolitan area...but not one of the "big" cities.
You haven't had the finances to purchase, upgrade, and supply a separate BOL...heck, you would have bugged-out to it at the first sign of trouble, if you had one.
It's a wide-ranging "situation", so family and friends out of your immediate area are also affected...dead, evacuated...something. Your group is on their own.

Things are going pretty well for the first month. Little security problems and your supplies are holding out well.
A month into the SHTF situation, you notice several fires that have started within a few miles of your location.
In a few days, a number of these fires join together.
Suddenly you have a huge firestorm heading your way. You HAVE TO leave...NOW!


Planning and practice allow you and your group to load up your BOV quickly. There's not enough room for everything. You can only carry a month of food and water...leaving a good month's worth behind. You've got some communications stuff, your first-aid supplies, camping equipment, firearms and ammo, basic tools, and some good survival gear.
Your BOV will go 400 miles (regular driving) on the full tank of gas. You have carry enough spare fuel to refill the tank(s) once...giving you 800 miles. But road conditions reduce this to 650 miles.
Once your out of fuel, you have your alternate transportation...a bicycle for each member of your group, plus 1/2 your bikes will pull bike-trailers for your bulk equipment and supplies.


To keep it simple, you don't have any pets or medical issue to worry about, and no one in your "group" that is under 15 years of age...basically your group consists of 'adults'.
The "situation" was not nuclear, comet/asteroid, or a massive geological upheaval so the world hasn't changed too much expect for the dead and displaced.


Your on the road.
What do you do?
Where do you go?

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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by bluesquid » Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:22 am

I feel for all you oil suckers that have to drive 10 mins for everything.


IF? IF? You would pose this question, I hope you live in a very urban enviro? If it hasnt been covered yet, then god bless you.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by cjm3fl » Fri Feb 05, 2010 1:32 am

Maybe I should have mentioned that it was recommended to post this question/scenario seperately, as it came up in another thread.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by arrowolf » Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:18 pm

Since I would have buried all my crap in survival caches, taken my John Deere and plowed a pretty serious firebreak around my whole property, let the fire burn.

Sorry. I don't guess I adhered to the scenario rules. But this is probably how it would really play out on my homestead.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by JojoZS » Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:30 pm

Your on the road.
What do you do? Try and head away from the fire!
Where do you go? I would try and find a place to hold out within the first tank of gas if possible. I wouldn't want to drive till I'm biking and down to the last of my provisions.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by Finch » Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:33 pm

cjm3fl wrote:There's not enough room for everything.

I have an F150

i could take my king sized bed and a cow if i wanted to
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by Glennbo » Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:37 pm

You mention communitcations equipment. Some sort of radio, hopefully with shortwave reception?

You need information. I would assume you would have been monitoring the radio already, and this should give you some idea of where there may be any "safe havens", and the best routes to go by. Otherwise you're just striking out blindly which lowers your probability of survival drastically.

If forced to venture out blindly, and if you have the equipment to live a long time without outside aid, I would head for someplace where other people are less likely to go. If you lack the supplies to be self-sufficient long term, then you should try to hook up with another group similar to yours and work together to set up a permanent community. Where that is and how successful it will be is dependent upon situations beyond what were described in the OP.

One important thing to consider is that if you are fleeing this conflageration then others will be too. They will be coming out of the woodwork much like animals stampeding away from a forest fire. I bet you'll be surprised at just how many there will be; folks who were laying low like you and are now hitting the road. Maybe teaming up with some of these at the outset would be best. They might have more detailed information about the situation in other places than you do.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by therianthrope » Fri Feb 05, 2010 3:08 pm

cjm3fl wrote:Things are going pretty well for the first month. Little security problems and your supplies are holding out well.
A month into the SHTF situation, you notice several fires that have started within a few miles of your location.
I think the problem with this premise is if things go wrong, it's going to be within the first week. Following the old adage, society is just 9 meals away from anarchy. I guess that doesn't change the "You're on the road. Where do you go?" thing much but... just saying.

Personally, I'd head towards my family. I wouldn't consider myself "on my own" until I knew for a fact that I was. Even if I could just make it to the town I grew up in, because even if I couldn't find my family there, if anyone was holding out in my home town, all I'd have to do is let them know who I am and I'm pretty confident I'd be taken in. Also, my family lives in rural Nebraska (350 miles away). So perhaps this is the input you're looking for.

I would head somewhere familiar to me and rural, for a number of reasons. There's lot's of public land, such as game reserves and BLM property, healthier ecosystems, water may be a little iffy in some area's from agricultural run-off, but the ground water is generally good.

Sorry, dunno how helpful that is to you. It's hard to give input because of the highly constrained premise (and it seems others have a similar problem), but yet my reality is so different than what you've described that it's really not productive for me to think about a situation like this.

I think I know the kind of information you're looking for from another thread, but I don't if I'm right. Is there a more direct question you can ask (without all the parameters and theoreticals), to get the type of replies you're looking for? Are you just looking for input on what kind of areas or ecosystems would support bugged-out survival? Are you trying to figure out what your own plan should be? What exactly are you trying to determine?

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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by DannusMaximus » Fri Feb 05, 2010 3:42 pm

Fires are finite things. A true urban firestorm in my AO is unlikely - - once you get away from the very urban core, houses are fairly well spaced out, vegetation is not terribly thick or wild, and there are numerous natural (water bodies) and man made (interstates, highways) fire breaks.

SO, I would move out of the immediate area of the fire (this might only require moving a few miles), and chill. Find an out of the way place to park the car, set up a watch, and wait. Save your fuel. Within a day or two the fire should have A) moved through the area of your BIL, burning whatever it's going to burn, or B) gone out or shifted so that your BIL is out of danger. When either of these two things happen, I'm heading BACK to my BIL, to either resume my bugging in (if option B happened) or sift through the rubble for salvageable supplies (if A happened). If all my shit is burned up, head to other relatives houses, all of which are well within the 400 mile range of my vehicle.

Interesting scenario. It makes me wonder if it isn't a good idea to consider burying supplies as soon as it becomes evident that whatever disaster you're in isn't going to be short term. I could see myself, a month into the PAW, burying supplies in the back yard to protect them from fires and such.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by CB4 » Fri Feb 05, 2010 3:44 pm

Our plan in any situation is to Bug in at our home. If we had to leave our home because it was damaged or compromised in some way, our plan is to load both vehicles with as much of our supplies as possible and our caravan would head to my parent's house (BOL1) 10 miles further out of town on more land. BOL2 is her parent's house, 50 miles even further out of town and on even bigger land. Both BOLs are stocked with food, guns, supplies and we are welcome at both.
Our only issue will be communicating with those BOLs before heading their way if phone/cell service is down.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by Necronos » Fri Feb 05, 2010 5:40 pm

In a true SHTF situation, I'd like to think that my group would have controlled burned an area surrounding our BIL to minimize the effects of such a scenario. With such firebreaks surrounding our property, we wouldn't head far from our BIL. I live in a city bisected by a river - if the fire was not between me and that river then I would cross it and wait it out. If the fire was blocking my path to water then I would probably wait out the fire in the parking lot of a big box store IF that parking lot was cleared of flammeable materials (cars and such).

I have 4 parking lots in mind that are side by side that I think would create a big enough firebreak surrounding me that I would feel safe - it is also a block from my BIL. In the event that the fire was blocking my path to the river (which is 1 mile away) then there would also be 2 canals (full or not, they are still a fire break) and a 5 lane road between the fire and the parking lots.

Basically, I would go as far as I would need to be safe and then return to my BIL once the fire has passed or changed direction.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by Mr. E. Monkey » Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:36 pm

cjm3fl wrote:"Something" happened. You find yourself in a PAW.
There is a good reduction in population over the first few weeks due to deaths and evacuations. Local governments (city, county and state) have pretty much vanished within the first week. The military deployed to help, but they haven't been seen since the second week.

You planned pretty well so that you and your small group have food, water, first-aid supplies, some security (firearms) to hold out in your BIL location for 3 months. If you stretch it...you can go 4+ months.
Your BIL is your primary residence. It's in a heavy residential area of a good sized metropolitan area...but not one of the "big" cities.
You haven't had the finances to purchase, upgrade, and supply a separate BOL...heck, you would have bugged-out to it at the first sign of trouble, if you had one.
It's a wide-ranging "situation", so family and friends out of your immediate area are also affected...dead, evacuated...something. Your group is on their own.

Things are going pretty well for the first month. Little security problems and your supplies are holding out well.
A month into the SHTF situation, you notice several fires that have started within a few miles of your location.
In a few days, a number of these fires join together.
Suddenly you have a huge firestorm heading your way. You HAVE TO leave...NOW!


Planning and practice allow you and your group to load up your BOV quickly. There's not enough room for everything. You can only carry a month of food and water...leaving a good month's worth behind. You've got some communications stuff, your first-aid supplies, camping equipment, firearms and ammo, basic tools, and some good survival gear.
Your BOV will go 400 miles (regular driving) on the full tank of gas. You have carry enough spare fuel to refill the tank(s) once...giving you 800 miles. But road conditions reduce this to 650 miles.
Once your out of fuel, you have your alternate transportation...a bicycle for each member of your group, plus 1/2 your bikes will pull bike-trailers for your bulk equipment and supplies.


To keep it simple, you don't have any pets or medical issue to worry about, and no one in your "group" that is under 15 years of age...basically your group consists of 'adults'.
The "situation" was not nuclear, comet/asteroid, or a massive geological upheaval so the world hasn't changed too much expect for the dead and displaced.


Your on the road.
What do you do?
Where do you go?

Your replies have to follow the rules of this site.
Considering that your scenario does not match my situation, I will assume that we are starting in St. Petersburg. As you require an immediate bugout, 650 miles could get you to the southern Appalachians, around northern Georgia/southern Tennessee, somewhere thereabouts.

It would
1. Get you away from too much trouble with hurricanes
2. Get you away from tornado country
3. Get you away from the city which is probably still a death-trap, even without 99% of the population. :mrgreen:

It would not
1. Guarantee survival by any stretch of the imagination
2. Befriend local survivors in that area
3. Ensure that you have adequate land and resources to start over.

I would recommend
1. Taking a vacation within the range you could theoretically bug out to.
2. Look for property to legally acquire.
3. Make nice with the locals.

Then again, all I know of your situation is what you have described, so this may not be the best idea. But that's about the best I can come up with for the given scenario off the top of my head. :)
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by mantis » Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:06 pm

That scenario doesn't apply to me at all either. If i had to leave my BIL, I'd go to the most appropriate BOL with as much of my supplies and gear as I could. I would have loaded up and left before it got to the point of "Leave immediately or get roasted". There is a word for just hitting the road - it's called becoming a refugee and it's not something that I would do. I would not leave any location just to hit the road with no concrete destination in mind.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by cjm3fl » Sat Feb 06, 2010 3:22 am

I began this post to see what others might be planning to do if they were forced to leave their BIL.
I'm hoping to glean some information from those that might have put more time and thought into this bad situation.
I've heard some good stuff, things I hadn't come up with on my own.


The situation I described does relate to my personal situation but I tried to keep it general.
I know that I'm not the only member living in a metropolitan area that is planning to bug-in.

If something worse then a hurricane happened, I know that bugging-in might only work for the short-term for me and my group.
Not thinking about those already living in the area, I thought we'd try to get to a state or national park and try to scratch out a living.
Those living around the park, I've found out, wouldn't take kindly to strangers using resources that they might be depending on.
And of course we can't expect to be the only group thinking of using the same location.


I am going to look into a few acres up-state.
I'll begin it as a BOL and work it up into a retirement place...I'm not 50 yet, but I can see it from here.
But this isn't something that will happen overnight and it's part of my long-term plans.

My short-term plans go like this: I accomplished my prep plans for January. So if something happens in February I know where I stand.
Each month increases my preps and I modify my plans.
But until I have my own BOL, I have to plan accordingly...including being ready to leave our BIL, if we have to.


If a firestorm were heading toward my BIL, I like what was said about just getting out of the way and wait to seeing if we can return.
Now if the "firestorm" was a large group of lawless raiders, then it might not be possible to return and we're still stuck hitting the road...and yes, becoming refugees. Something I don't like...but when shit happens, it usually happens in really big piles.

It wouldn't be something anyone would want to do. But having to leave your BIL could happen.
And it's possible that something can force some to leave their BOL.

Maybe my question should have been, "forced to leave your secured location...now what?"
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by Stab74 » Sat Feb 06, 2010 12:12 pm

cjm3fl wrote:Maybe my question should have been, "forced to leave your secured location...now what?"
Yeah keep it general or you start getting the "that wouldn't apply to me" responses. There are people on here real good at picking apart scenarios. You could hypothesize a million strong Orc army on the way and there'd be those that have some kinda plan for that such as: "Well that's why I moved next to Mt Saint Helens so I could divert lava into my pre dug moat I had prepared just for this contingency. No orcs getting through my lava filled moat!" You will still find some though that even with a general "forced to leave" scenario will refuse to answer until given more specifics and then you will hear about the lava filled moat again.

What would I do? Shit I don't know. I don't have a BOL and I will be living in a moderate sized city. Suppose I could head for public forests but I'd probably end up in gun battles with rednecks. Hell they love to shoot up Red River Gorge and thats just a regular weekend. I need to give this idea more thought.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by cjm3fl » Sat Feb 06, 2010 1:28 pm

I have figured out (at least I hope I have) that it's not good to "generalize" as broadly as I did.
I tried to shove too much into one post where there can't be any proper replies.
When I (the originator) can't focus down to a specific question, there can't be any good answers....

Better would have been: "I'm adding plans incase we are forced to leave our BIL. BOV and extra fuel should get me and my group about 650 miles.
Alternate transportation is an off-road type bicycle for each member.
Can anyone tell me if those Kevlar inner tubes work as well as advertised?"


Any added information and comments will be appreciated, but I'm going to consider the thread non-productive because it's not specific enough.

Thanks...

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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by EricinVirginia » Sat Feb 06, 2010 1:51 pm

I'm with Dannus. I'd grab as much as I could and wait out the fire. Maybe my BIL gets spared. Maybe it burns. Odds are a lot of survivors evacuated as well so really all the fire does is concentrate freaked-out survivors on the perimeter of the fire. I'd probably prioritize security over 1 month of food and water in this case.

Also, in the scenario you described, you should have identified some alternative bug out locations - camping grounds, off the beaten path parks, road less traveled way stops, etc. For me, specifically, I would have tried to stash and burying some level of contingency supplies around my property just in case. If the fire were really bad, it'd probably damage or compromise that stuff, but who knows? It's worth checking out.

I wish my BOV had a 400 mile range. I'd be lucky to get 300 miles... and carrying enough fuel to resupply once would take up half my cargo space!

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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by doc savage » Sat Feb 06, 2010 6:29 pm

Big fires?
grab my ammo cans and take a leisurely stroll down the creek to the deleware river. boat? swim? wade out about 15 feet?

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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by WTJ » Mon Feb 08, 2010 2:56 am

I would head toward the closest body of moving fresh water.

Then find the closest uninhabited plot of land. I would attempt to start farming crops and animals. Hunting and fishing are also possible, but fresh water is key at this point. Live off the land.

Finally, come up with an egress plan in case the first location is discovered by raiders/zombies. Start scouting downriver for possible secondary locations. Begin building out the second location if possible.

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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by bcvojak » Mon Feb 08, 2010 4:49 pm

2500 series Suburban
Image

PLUS
5,000 lb Hybrid camper
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PLUS
1/3 acre with H2O, Electric & Septic 112 miles away
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With a year round river behind it
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And the Pacific Ocean 200 Yards to the west
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Questions?
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by WTJ » Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:31 pm

Now you just need a zodiac... and you're set!
bcvojak wrote:2500 series Suburban


PLUS
5,000 lb Hybrid camper


PLUS
1/3 acre with H2O, Electric & Septic 112 miles away


With a year round river behind it


And the Pacific Ocean 200 Yards to the west


Questions?

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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by cjm3fl » Mon Feb 08, 2010 10:48 pm

doc savage wrote:Big fires?
grab my ammo cans and take a leisurely stroll down the creek to the deleware river. boat? swim? wade out about 15 feet?
Must be the Pennypack creek or Tacony creek.
Unless your up in the Greater Far NE, then it would be the Poquessing. Spend many a summer day fishing and swimming the Poquessing.

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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by Glennbo » Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:26 pm

If we're still talking about this fire or event occurring one month into the PAW, then I think it's way too optimistic to assume that the roads will be clear or safe to travel on.

In fact I doubt the roads will be open even after a few hours into the PAW!

I've never planned to bug out by vehicle. Humping it cross-country on foot seems to be the most likely way you'll get anywhere safely.

Unless it's part of some sort of heavily armed caravan, that Suburban with a camper is going to look like the lottery jackpot to desperados.
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Re: Forced To Leave Your BIL....Now What?

Post by EricinVirginia » Tue Feb 09, 2010 2:44 pm

Right, but the camper is full of stuff to fight off the desperados...

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