TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Discuss those "what if" or "what would you do" scenarios you've been wondering about.

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TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by jor-el » Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:22 pm

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa ... -1.2081534

The original article
http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2015/0 ... terrorist/

Nick Leghorn sets up a scenario using a set that supposedly dupes the floor plan of Charlie Hebdo's offices.
Two volunteers play the Kouachi Brothers, armed with AR15 rifles with Simunitions. One volunteer plays either Hebdo himself or his police bodyguard with a SIG P226 with simunitions. Add 11 bystanders unarmed.

They run the scenario at least 9 times. Even with the fiction that the players already know in advance an attack will occur, the solo armed defender "fails" to survive. Gee, two on one odds and solo pistol vs two rifles backed with ISIS quality training.

The NY Daily News and others draw the obvious conclusion; because one defender cannot succeed in defending himself with the least effective firearm, the pistol, there is no reason to arm citizens with ANYTHING and the public is better off unarmed.

The Rabbi Abraham Cooper:
“As to personally being armed, such a move COULD help when a Jewish person is threatened by thugs, but won’t help if G-d forbid, Charlie-type terror attacks are launched,” Cooper said.

“Bottom line: Only the Police and intelligence can protect France’s Jews from terrorism,” Cooper said, noting that it is expected French authorities will continue boosting defenses. “If the government doesn’t, then there is no long range future for Jews there.”
Oh, for Rao's sake! POLICE ARE CITIZENS JUST LIKE THE REST OF YOU! I'm not showing up with explosive batarangs, trick arrows, speed-of-light running or eyes blazing with my red cape flapping in the breeze. I'm showing up with a pistol, some mags, a radio, and some armor. Maybe a rifle too. And many, many friends also armed with pistols, rifles and body armor.

Now, can anyone work out a win from this Kobayashi Maru?
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by jor-el » Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:27 pm

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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Stercutus » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:13 pm

Now, can anyone work out a win from this Kobayashi Maru?

I bet somebody could....

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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by MacAttack » Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:39 am

I can't think of a win with the bad guys just intentionally shooting anyone and everyone who gets in the way of their final target.

Either out number then with security and hope they are already there when the shooting starts or they get there fast enough to keep the fatalities low or you can hope they stop shooting everyone just long enough to take a bullet from someone they didn't suspect would have a gun.

Both choices depend on the bad guys making at least one big mistake. Opsec for one, the authorities found out and stopped it.
Not shooting everyone first and fast for the next.

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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by jor-el » Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:50 pm

Me? There's just no way to win with a 9mm pistol vs 2 AK-47s given a modicum of training on both sides.

If I had to Captain Kirk this hitch, I'd need;
1) In house surveillance cams with a view of the street. I need at least a minute of time. There was a ground floor receptionist who could have had a panic button alarm. Gendarmes would have had that extra minute to respond with ARMED cops. Would also be nice to lock out the elevator door, as the tangos came in from the elevator. Would be REAL nice to remotely lock them in the elevator, assuming it were even possible by Paris building codes.
2) Prior training of staff to exercise building fire protocols. Most office buildings have a fire stairway in addition to the regular stairway. Staff could have been evacuated. Something every employer and employee should be mindful of for ordinary disasters like fires, floods, earthquakes, gas leaks.
3) Unfortunately, the bodyguard would have to stay behind to guard the staff escape. Otherwise Hebdo and friends would have been slaughtered on the stairs instead of the office. One other person would have to assist, preferably another cop. This would be where the backup gun every responsible CCW carrier should have comes into play; BTW, I'm bringing a rifle, a french AMD or better, a Mini-30. And at least a plate carrier, preferably one extra for the assistant . This would mitigate the issue of a solo defender getting attacked from two directions. Office video cams streamed to a phone would warn the defenders of attackers location and attack configuration; in TAG video the taNGOs entered low to sneak under defender line of sight and from two directions. Making a single defender into two that can anticipate the attack moves might even the odds. If there was time a few carefully placed mannequins dressed up and partially hidden would force the tangos to waste bullets on everything that looks like a person.

Another possibility would have been to pepper spray the entire office and defend in gas masks. As long as I have that minute, why not prep the battlefield for ME? That shit spreads all over an enclosed area and makes it hard to function.
Ask me how I know this.

Under a fog of pepper spray, having just killed a dummy and taking fire through the thin interior walls as if the defenders had X-ray vision, the Jihadis might end up having a bad day.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:51 pm

A couple of things that come to mind.

- A duress code to enter at the security door that would trigger a silent alarm. That way if the girl who gave up the code to let the killers in had dialed that in instead everyone could have gone on lock down or fled instead of sitting around a conference table. Truthfully I am surprised they did not have one. Most places I have worked with keypad entry use duress codes.

- A Sally Port with secured entries on both sides. The killers go through the first one and get trapped between the two doors. This is pointless if they know they layout but if they don't then they get stuck until they can defeat one of the doors.

- Arm and train everyone capable and willing. Play the scenario that way and everything changes.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by duodecima » Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:19 pm

Stercutus wrote:A couple of things that come to mind.

- A duress code to enter at the security door that would trigger a silent alarm. That way if the girl who gave up the code to let the killers in had dialed that in instead everyone could have gone on lock down or fled instead of sitting around a conference table.
Key detail that I had not seen previously, it didn't get any play during the first couple days that I saw:

The only "girl" in the actual event was the young daughter of an illustrator, described as a toddler, who had been picked up from daycare by her 32-year old mother. As she returned to work with her daughter, she walked up to the exterior door, where the terrorists then approached and threatened her daughter if she didn't let them in. http://www.inquisitr.com/1735515/charli ... -daughter/

It's one thing to hit a distress code knowing you may die but you'll hopefully save multiple colleagues. It is another thing entirely to choose to watch your young child shot in front of you in support of that principle. Living with the aftermath sucks either way, if you're lucky enough to live.

A silent distress code (which my house alarm system had) might have worked, assuming somebody whose kid has a gun at their head can think that fast. BUT you'd have to let the silent distress code open the door, which defeats a lot of the purpose, to my mind, perhaps those with experience in choosing the settings for these alarm options can comment?
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:44 pm

The different ways I have seen it done:
- Enter into the Sally port area and then get trapped.
- let them enter into the secured area but then they can't leave
- let them in but trigger a silent alarm. Everything still works.

There may be more ways.

The kids does change the equation a bit, as I imagine it would for most people. But if it is option three the bad guys should not be the wiser.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by duodecima » Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:27 pm

Stercutus wrote:The different ways I have seen it done:
- Enter into the Sally port area and then get trapped.
- let them enter into the secured area but then they can't leave
- let them in but trigger a silent alarm. Everything still works.

There may be more ways.

The kids does change the equation a bit, as I imagine it would for most people. But if it is option three the bad guys should not be the wiser.
Until they get in and realize people have gone into lock down - they took her and the little girl inside with them. So if there'd been a sally port, you're going to get trapped in there with the attackers. They were calling out Charbonnier & his colleagues at Charlie Hebdo by name, true, but I think they'd already shot the maintenance guy just for being there, before they told her they'd let her go because she was a woman. All depends on how quickly the person with their kid under threat is thinking and which way they decide to take the risk - since there's a huge risk you're both dead no matter what you do but you're both definitely dead if they figure out you messed with them. Impossible call, and a real wild card in getting access.

The terrorists can create the same problem with an offsite hostage too, but it would have required more knowledge of the office and staff on their part, more people on their side, and a correspondingly bigger chance of getting caught.

Obviously there are ways around this too - but over half the controlled-access places I pass thru are opened from the inside by the receptionist who buzzes you in after checking who's there in the camera. That might have been more effective in this situation since it leaves the decision in the hands of someone who doesn't have a gun at their head?
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Stercutus » Sat Jan 17, 2015 6:58 pm

So you are inside nice and safe and the gun is pointed at the head of the five year daughter of your co-worker?

Yep, the world is shitty place some times.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Dave_M » Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:15 pm

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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by MacAttack » Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:11 am

Just as good as this so called fair test.

Notice that the attackers knew exactly where each CCW holder was sitting and ONLY focused on that person.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QjZY3WiO9s

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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by jor-el » Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:21 am

Yes, I read the part in the original article that said the only instance the solo armed civilian survived was when she ran away. Figured there was more to that.

A more elaborate explanation was she had the staff run to the exit while she sent shots down the hall to cover their escape. Attackers not killed, and all survived. Did not fit the narrative, so that incident was "edited". Such an outcome would not have happened if, as in the actual incident, all were unarmed.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:34 am

I am really getting tired of seeing this bullshit. The number of "professionals" that keep calling this a "mass shooting event" seem clueless to me. This was a terror attack with the exact type being an assassination. Johnny did not just go off his meds and run down to the school and start blowing away his classmates over hormonal angst.

It was not even a mass shooting terror suicide attack. Suicide attacks are for the crazy, feeble and stupid. These guys were as professional as the other side gets and knew what they were doing. They had targets, they went and serviced them and they got away. This was well planned, resourced, used mature intelligence and met specific goals with follow up media exploitation. Whatever follow up escape plans they had failed but they were outnumbered by a force 20,000 times larger than theirs and moving through hostile territory so it was bound to be a long shot. I am guessing they did not predict the level of response they were going to get from the French Government.

About the only thing that these attacks have in common with mass shootings is that people get shot. It is kind of like saying that a train wreck and a car wreck are the same thing because they are both wrecks. Any examination of the event that ignores these realities is completely off track as it starts with a huge number of false premises.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Dave_M » Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:58 am

Stercutus wrote:
I am really getting tired of seeing this bullshit. The number of "professionals" that keep calling this a "mass shooting event" seem clueless to me. This was a terror attack with the exact type being an assassination. Johnny did not just go off his meds and run down to the school and start blowing away his classmates over hormonal angst.

It was not even a mass shooting terror suicide attack. Suicide attacks are for the crazy, feeble and stupid. These guys were as professional as the other side gets and knew what they were doing. They had targets, they went and serviced them and they got away. This was well planned, resourced, used mature intelligence and met specific goals with follow up media exploitation. Whatever follow up escape plans they had failed but they were outnumbered by a force 20,000 times larger than theirs and moving through hostile territory so it was bound to be a long shot. I am guessing they did not predict the level of response they were going to get from the French Government.

About the only thing that these attacks have in common with mass shootings is that people get shot. It is kind of like saying that a train wreck and a car wreck are the same thing because they are both wrecks. Any examination of the event that ignores these realities is completely off track as it starts with a huge number of false premises.
I take it that you did not read far enough to get to this part:
Most active shooters have been capable of operating a weapon and shooting defenseless victims, but incapable of actually fighting.

Dedicated terrorists, on the other hand, are far more likely to be trained and experienced. Anyone who finds himself facing two trained rifle-armed terrorists, whether he’s an armed citizen, uniformed cop or Green Beret SEAL from Recon Team Delta, is in for a hell of a bad time.

No matter how well you’re trained, there are situations you’re not going to win. “American Sniper” Chris Kyle, highly skilled with weapons, was shot in the back by someone he thought he could trust. That doesn’t mean Kyle’s skills were worthless, it just means some situations really suck. The most highly trained gunfighter in the world is going to lose if someone drops an anvil on his head while he’s sleeping. An armed citizen facing two highly skilled terrorists with rifles isn’t an unwinnable situation, but it’s pretty damn close.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Boondock » Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:22 am

Dave_M wrote:
No matter how well you’re trained, there are situations you’re not going to win.
Totally agree.

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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by jor-el » Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:35 pm

Boondock wrote:
Dave_M wrote:
No matter how well you’re trained, there are situations you’re not going to win.
Totally agree.
Ya know something? That may be true, but I have a problem with that. Really, I have a problem with the whole "scenario" thing. "Scenario" implies the event was somehow "time locked", with no way to have altered circumstances to guide events to a different path, now or in the future.

Stéphane Charbonnier, editor in chief, was at least somewhat intelligent. He could have opted for layers of security innocuous enough to be largely ignored by his staff but could have been present to buy time. Surely Franck Brinsolaro, the solo cop at the scene specifically assigned to guard him, would have suggested these things.

BTW, to honor him. I leave this:

https://randazza.files.wordpress.com/20 ... -charb.jpg

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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Mr. E. Monkey » Sun Jan 18, 2015 2:50 pm

Damn good article. Thanks for sharing.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Stercutus » Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:31 pm


I take it that you did not read far enough to get to this part:
I did not. I lost interest when he started going off into mass shootings and trying to draw certain parallels that don't exist. That said I do agree with his position on mass shootings.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by 2now » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:20 am

The better to question to my mind is how many CCW holders would it have taken to turn the tables?

If the bad guys know how many guns they face you are already behind the curve. They could try it again with the officer and one or two CCW pistols in the office staff.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:28 am

Two armed, trained men with speed, intensity, and violence of action along witht some semblance of the element of surprise is enough to clear a small building of less-trained, less-armed persons in very little time. Short of arming and admiring every building like a .gov prison, something like this or a truck bomb will win more often than not.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by LowKey » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:02 am

Stercutus wrote:A couple of things that come to mind.

- A duress code to enter at the security door that would trigger a silent alarm. That way if the girl who gave up the code to let the killers in had dialed that in instead everyone could have gone on lock down or fled instead of sitting around a conference table. Truthfully I am surprised they did not have one. Most places I have worked with keypad entry use duress codes.
Brilliance.

How about setting it so that the durress code also auto routes the elevator when next used to either the roof or the basement, or another location that can be easily isolated from occupied areas?
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by TDW586 » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:00 am

LowKey wrote:
Stercutus wrote:A couple of things that come to mind.

- A duress code to enter at the security door that would trigger a silent alarm. That way if the girl who gave up the code to let the killers in had dialed that in instead everyone could have gone on lock down or fled instead of sitting around a conference table. Truthfully I am surprised they did not have one. Most places I have worked with keypad entry use duress codes.
Brilliance.

How about setting it so that the durress code also auto routes the elevator when next used to either the roof or the basement, or another location that can be easily isolated from occupied areas?
Simple security measures like this are great, they really have a lot of potential. The only problem is that notifying and training everyone with access to the building on how to use them makes it more likely that the information leaks, compromising your security measures. In the case of a relatively small facility like the editorial offices of Charlie Hedbo, this should be a workable risk.
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Re: TTAG Strikes Again; Charlie Hebdo as a Scenario

Post by Mikeyboy » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:46 am

2now wrote:The better to question to my mind is how many CCW holders would it have taken to turn the tables?

If the bad guys know how many guns they face you are already behind the curve. They could try it again with the officer and one or two CCW pistols in the office staff.
^This^

The simulation was a recreation of the current event. The only armed people involved was two terrorist and one police bodyguard. 2 against 1. I still think if you gave a random 2 or 3 more people on the victims' side a CCW firearm, logically it would have at the very least disrupted the pace of what turned out to be an outright slaughter.

If I was there with my little pocket .380 pistol would I be able to stop two terrorist armed with AK-47s? Probably not, but my fruitless attempt to fire off a few rounds before dying hopefully by some miracle one of my rounds hit a terrorist and wounds or kills him. Most likely though I don't stop anything putting up a fight, but at least my attempt delays the terrorist just a few seconds, and that few second delay helps someone escape, or gives police teams more time to close in.

Its still better than "just taking it". Why carry a gun, just be a good victim and die. Maybe its the Viking in me, but I rather die trying to fight back.

What is next? Are we going to show simulations of serial rapist verses women who took self defense classes in MMA cages. 10 out of 10 times the woman loses the fight, so don't even bother fighting back girls. No Karate classes, no need to buy pepper spray, its simply hopeless. Is that what this world as become? Don't prepare yourself, don't fight back, because you are going to lose to anyway. Evil deeds will always triumph.

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