How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Discuss those "what if" or "what would you do" scenarios you've been wondering about.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by alessandro » Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:58 pm

Mikeyboy wrote:How long do you think it would take our current society to go completely mad
1 minute after the apocalypse and only if it happens sudden and immediate, while a lot sooner in case of alert.
Mikeyboy wrote:where you had a town of cannibals, a governor that ran gladiatorial games, gruesome public executions, and wandering gangs that raped and pillaged.
Will it take days, months, years?
For gladiatorial games at least 1 month given that in any case would require a sort of organization (no matter how perverse).
For gruesome public executions some weeks at the best but less the 1 month.
For wandering gangs that raped and pillaged some days (1-2).

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by MasterMaker » Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:04 pm

alessandro wrote: For gladiatorial games at least 1 month given that in any case would require a sort of organization (no matter how perverse).
For gruesome public executions some weeks at the best but less the 1 month.
For wandering gangs that raped and pillaged some days (1-2).
I would more or less agree with that assessment.

More bad things have been done by good people than everything bad people has ever been accused of doing.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by hondo » Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:50 am

Doryman wrote:Honestly, I'd expect people to go "tribal" pretty quick. In every shtf situation I've studied so far, large, diverse populations tend to splinter along ethnic, linguistic and cultural lines. The former Yugoslavia is a great example; Sarajevo went from being a cosmopolitan melting pot to being a fractious war-zone.

Humans have a predilection towards tribalism in the absence of a strong state. Blame Dunbar's Number, small-mindedness, whatever, but that's seems to be the way the chips fall.

So, personally, I wouldn't expect to see people become completely crazy and evil so much as I would expect to see them become brutally sectarian. Good people towards and within their "tribe" and heartless savages towards those on the outside. That seems to be the historical mean.
Doryman that is romanticized version of the Sarajevo, in reality Sarajevo was always split on three areas Novo Sarajevo( New City of Sarajevo) mostly skyscrapers and apt. buildings populated by those who moved to Sarajevo for work, skyscrapers were populated by socialist standards mixture of Muslims, Serbs, Croats, Jews, Roma People etc. then by social status one CEO, two vice presidents of the company, one engineer, one lawyer, five machinist, two security guards, three custodians etc. On the other hand Stari Grad ( Old Town) Sarajevo populated by natives and mostly homogeneous population of people who are predominantly Muslims the third part are rural suburbs of Sarajevo basically Serb populated villages mile to mile and half as crow flies from the center of the Sarajevo.
Sarajevo as capitol of Bosnia and Herzegovina was symbol of the govt. so for Serbs taking Sarajevo meant signaling defeat of govt. of Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Last edited by hondo on Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:54 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by hondo » Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:52 am

DarkAxel wrote:Well, we do have some historical cases to look at.

Defeat in WW1 and the Great Depression drove the German people off the rails and into the arms of some really fucked up people. Time: 15 years.

Yugoslavia pretty much fell to ethnic cleansing, rape, and death camps almost overnight when it broke up.

Somalia - civil war and governmental collapse led to intentional famine and ethnic cleansing, then Islamic extremism led to Al Shabaab and Westgate in Kenya

Sudan - Ethnic cleansing. The Janjaweed. Civil war.

The Black Plague: Europeans blamed Jews (Blood libel and witchcraft), and that led to expulsions, pogroms, torture, and burning at the stake.
Dark Axel as far Yugoslavia yes hell came on the heels of break up but break up lasted more than 10 years it started in late '70-is of the last century.
Last edited by hondo on Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by hondo » Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:03 am

How long is going to take depends on the multitude of the factors, first depends what it is the "event", next depends on the size of the place where you are and general attitude I can tell you from former Yugoslavia point of view it can be very safe and organized place if local govt. is capable of organizing and enforcing the law to full blown lawlessness at the Mad Max level.

Rule of the thumb would be hungry and desperate people do stupid and desperate things. There is always a certain percentage of those who are waiting their chance to unleash their criminal and sociopath tendencies, are they going to get a chance depends of level of organisation within local govt. Basic rule is man with a rifle is a king capable of protecting his kingdom and a men with family armed with rifles is kick ass force.

Now it is different for those who live in the big cities aka concrete jungle and hunt and gather their food in local bodega than for those living in rural areas or own a acre or two of backyard and knowledge how to plant and harvest and let's say with a chicken coop in place/

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by JeeperCreeper » Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:05 am

I give it 4 seconds... shit, when the weatherman gives a forecast of rain, I panic and you can see me running down my street naked swing a croquet mallet while singing Free Bird... the guitar solo part.

Humans are only a few seconds away from crazy, because most are crazy... trust me, I'm a professional psychologist and amatuer racecar driver.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by teotwaki » Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:50 pm

Manimal2878 wrote: Yeah, I was alive before the cell phone too. I still don't buy it.

It is all about security. Drug dealers did not want to sit by the phone and then have a conversation that could be monitored via a wire tap. Pagers and simple codes kept the big ears of the police at bay.

http://content.time.com/time/magazine/a ... 83,00.html

Now it is prepaid phones:
http://gawker.com/5763838/apple-stores- ... ug-dealers
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by eeb » Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:03 pm

You mean they didn't have the cartel's phone tree stuck to the fridge with PacMan magnets?
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by N01 » Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:38 am

i know from experience
that it can go very fast , depending on situation and location you can say
from 2 hours - a couple of months

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Stercutus » Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:56 am

Now it is prepaid phones:
http://gawker.com/5763838/apple-stores- ... ug-dealers
Having a prepaid phone these days is like driving a 10 year old Navigator with 28" rims. Last I checked about 25% of them are tapped by the .gov. Messenger is still the safest form of communication and the one most often employed by dealers around here.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by cyruspace » Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:22 pm

We have people now who don't follow the norms of society: Murder, robbery, rape.

Some people are held back by civilization. They don't want to be arrested. Once law enforcement breaks down these people will be unleashed.

Some will be looking for someone to blame for the collapse and take it out on them.

Some would become riotous if they lost electricity and use of their electric devices.

The worse the bad people behave the stronger the response from civilized people would be. I am thinking of how law enforcement and justice was applied to the lawless old west by hanging judges.

Psychology has the hierarchy of needs. These must be met and among the first needs are water and food.

The government will do everything possible to keep water and food going because once food and water are gone, its welcome to the Thunderdome! How much food and water is available to keep these people from becoming monsters who are desperate to survive.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by teotwaki » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:40 am

Stercutus wrote:
Now it is prepaid phones:
http://gawker.com/5763838/apple-stores- ... ug-dealers
Having a prepaid phone these days is like driving a 10 year old Navigator with 28" rims. Last I checked about 25% of them are tapped by the .gov. Messenger is still the safest form of communication and the one most often employed by dealers around here.
Every last mobile phone in the US can be tapped with keyboard strokes from a centralized system that is already hard wired into every phone company.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communic ... cement_Act
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by MasterMaker » Wed Dec 03, 2014 2:55 pm

https://play.google.com/store/apps/deta ... hone&hl=en

or

http://www.cellcrypt.com/

Nothing is brute force secure unless one have more computer power than those using it, but it would give privacy to anyone not already being observed(and therefore worth the effort of brute force decryption), which means for most people most of the time.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by bcvojak » Sat Feb 14, 2015 1:58 pm

Some of it will depend on the scenario:
Something that causes gradually deterioration of services such as a Pandemic.
Versus
Something that hist fast and HARD such as an EMP strike

Worst case, people will panic in hours

Best case 3 or 4 days as many people run out of food/water.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by ineffableone » Sat Feb 14, 2015 2:13 pm

Well if this megadrought happens in 2050 viewtopic.php?f=22&t=115471 we will start to see how quickly it happens.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Feb 15, 2015 9:56 am

Nine missed meals seems like the concensus view of when the descent into anarchy will commence. Considering most people's minimal food storage or preparation, that doesn't give us much time.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... risis.html

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by teotwaki » Wed Feb 18, 2015 12:42 pm

The US has a built-in base of people who might get "crazy", about 46.3 million who are on food stamps (2/6/15) out of a population of 319 million. Charts are here: http://www.trivisonno.com/food-stamps-charts. If they are on food stamps they are likely to be extremely dependent on the supply in the stores and have no buffer at home.

One article that I read... http://www.utne.com/environment/nine-me ... x?PageId=1

....pointed out the four major "systems" that impact our local food supply:
  • Nature
    Food Production
    Logistics & Distribution (includes fuel, highways, etc.)
    Megacities

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by teotwaki » Wed Feb 18, 2015 1:44 pm

This thread got me to start searching on the "72 hour" term applied to a grocery store's food stocks. Apparently the Just In Time concept originated with a chain called Piggly Wiggly http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piggly_Wiggly. It was later adopted by large manufacturer's, restaurant's, fast food chains and others. This means in the future ZPAW we might not have any overlooked local stocks to look for as supplements to our own stocks.

I've also seen a phrase new to me called Direct Store Delivery which cuts out the distribution centers that large retailers use.
http://www.mwpvl.com/html/dsd__vs_centr ... ution.html. So no large local distribution centers to count on for overlooked stock.

Does anyone else have some good reads on retailer's 72 hour strategies? It seems that the model is used for things such as cash for ATMs, chemicals for water treatment plants and more because of the cost savings gained by not of maintaining local inventory

other articles

http://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/What ... 0Stops.pdf
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by Mikeyboy » Wed Feb 18, 2015 4:07 pm

In a roundabout way with my insurance background I can confirm some of what that trucking article is saying. Most school cafeterias, nursing homes, restaurants, fast food/convenience stores, and probably most supermarkets only have refrigerated space to store a limited amount of fresh, perishable and frozen foods, probably only 72 hours worth max and that is on a standard 3 "busy" days, not all out panic buying.

Its not only hard for most of those places to have massive refrigeration units due to space and money constraints , but having massive food storage on site can lead to mixups, spoilage, run ins with heath inspectors, and accidently selling past due food and getting someone sick. Its just easier and more economical for them to rely on regular deliveries. Look at most supermarkets building on the outside, then look at the retail space on the inside. There isn't that much difference, and that is not including break rooms, bathrooms, offices, employee lockers. Most supermarket stockrooms I have been in have been nothing more than hallways with single pallets on one side and pallet jacks. Only large mega stores might have floor to ceiling heavy duty shelves and forklifts. Even with things like canned goods and non perishable stuff, its usually what is on the shelves, some extras in overstock ( the boxesy the try to keep out of reach above the store shelves, but if your tall and crazy like me you end up helping yourself), and maybe if they are lucky enough in the back stockrooms to refill the shelves just one more time.

Throw in a disaster and panic buying and most stores selling food and essential goods will not be able to keep up. I seen this happen in real life with not one food stuff and batteries with a threat of a storm, but I seen it happen regionally after Hurricane Sandy with even non food stuff. Think about those plastic and metal gasoline cans they sell in Home Depot, Walmart, Gas Stations, etc. Right now if you needed one you could probably think of a dozen places locally where you could buy one, right. 3 days after Hurricane Sandy hit, every store in my area was out of Gas cans, and most walmarts, and sporting good stores were out of everything from Mountain House meal, to sleeping bags and propane fuel bottles for camp stoves....oh by the way, I had zero damage in my town. I am 100 miles way from NYC and North NJ were Sandy impacted. People from that area were driving long distance into PA, DE, MD, and CT and clearing out our shelves because their shelve were bare.

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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by TheWarriorMax » Wed Feb 18, 2015 5:57 pm

Panic buying and re supply of food is minor compared to the pharmaceutical problems if folks don't get their SSRIs in time.

There are estimates of one in five Americans addicted to legal mood altering medications. The effects of withdrawal include homicide and suicide.

So if there is any problem with the manufacture, shipping , financing or selling these prescription medications, things can go very very bad after a month or so. If there was an EMP or CME or other grid crash with initial rioting and general lawlessness, your town might have settled into a new normal only to have serious mental health, insulin etc issues come up and kick your ass.

No stockpiling of these medications either, it's a real shit sandwich IMHO.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by nyarlotep » Tue Mar 24, 2015 11:37 pm

The instant things go to shit, people will start taking advantage of the situation. I would say looting and riots within a day, if not sooner. There are always ne'er-do-wells looking to take advantage of a catastrophe to wreak havoc. The residential suburb I'm in should be safe from that kind of urban chaos initially, but I would certainly start investing in plywood and screws to get the accessible windows covered.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by NamelessStain » Wed Mar 25, 2015 7:41 am

I've said this before in other threads, watch After Armageddon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8rYaPfFLgo

They say a bunch of stuff in the video that are not permissible to say on these forums. So please, do not talk about stealing anything or siphoning gas.
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Re: How crazy will people get and how long will it take

Post by teotwaki » Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:43 pm

That was an okay film especially as the story did not have to be worn like a cloak on the shoulders of a major movie star :mrgreen:

The depicted family was how I would imagine many families will demonstrate their utter lack of prepping.

edit: Forgot to paste this in https://youtu.be/bICzlks7vXE
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