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Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:57 pm
by Bombastic
I've got two different questions for you guys and I hope I'm in the right place to get some good opinions.

I've recently finished college and have a few hundred dollars saved up for myself and for several weeks now I've been thinking about turning it into Silver Eagles as long term investment, silver being about $30 an ounce right now. However I've been swept up into the recent panic that guns might be banned soon and am now strongly thinking about spending the money on a firearm, specifically a AK variant.

My second question might be off topic but it somewhat related. At some point in the future I might spend two years in Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet republic in Central Asia, a unstable country in an unstable region. Possessing a gun in such a country would be totally out of the question but having some silver coins might be useful in a country where the government could essentially collapse at any moment, but could I even be able to bring them with me from the US? A simple Google search shows that Kyrgyz Authorities require you to declare all precious metals when entering the country and I could easily see a corrupt Customs Officer stealing them.

So is silver or a semi-auto rifle a better use of my money and does anyone know anything about bring precious metals into other countries?

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:21 pm
by Doctorr Fabulous
Now is not the time to be buying either silver or military-style small arms.

http://www.zombiehunters.org/forum/view ... 7&t=103372 Give that a quick read. I can tell you that nothing you buy right now that takes hicap mags or has ever been featured in a ban will be a deal. Plenty of other things to spend a couple hundred bucks on for a fresh-outta-college graduate. Same goes for silver. The price is not good right now. Ignore anyone telling you to buy precious metals who also sells or invests heavily in precious metals. Precious metals are great as part of a long-term investment strategy, but not as something you spend a few hundred dollars on without the rest of the portfolio. Ask an investment professional for more, but ignore anyone with a domain name like buygold.com or silverprices.com.

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The further back you go, the longer the flat side on the left. Like any other market, precious metals can be inflated by panic buying, and if there's a bubble it will pop, like real estate, dotcoms, etc.

Next, why are you going to Kyrgyrstan? Precious metals have little or no use in most areas. I'll let someone who can properly use words like "fuckwad" and "assay" (I tend to use fuckwad a bit much) explain why, but there's a couple thread about it. What you'll be doing in KG has more to do with the use of an american silver coin than anything else. If you'll be on an American military base, you'd be better off putting that money and a large chunk of your earning while away directly into a savings account so as to not do anything stupid with it.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:45 pm
by KYZHunters
As usual, DF speaks the truth. I've been in a lot of third world countries and good old US greenbacks are what grease the wheels. Do some research before going, but in a lot of countries larger denominations get a better exchange rate. I've been told it's because they are less likely to be counterfeited, but who knows. For example, even in a modern country like the Republic of Korea, you could get 20% more won for one $100 bill then you could for 5 twenties.
If you ever have to jam, you want US currency, and a lot of it.
On spending your nest egg on a gun or investing, again, the Doctorr is correct. Never buy during a panic.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:53 pm
by jnathan
Bombastic,

Precious metals are nearly at all time highs right now, so from an investment perspective now is the "high" period during which you'd be selling the precious metals you bought during the "low" period.

If you want to buy a rifle because you think you won't be able to in the future, you'd also be doing so during a market high. That's a choice you'll have to make.

I'd invest in some training (which will be with you always) and ways of concealing cash on you (which you can bring into the country legally, up to a certain amount). Having American dollars during a collapse in whichever country you're visiting could be extremely helpful.

-Jeff

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:05 am
by Razor
I've been to Kyrgyzstan a few times it's a nice place from what I saw, what are you going to be doing there just out of curiosity.

Also I'm just going to agree with what every one else has said right now is a bad time to invest in silver due to the fact that it is at a high, also if Kyrgyzstan did go through a collapse (Which I don't really think they would, but it can't hurt to be ready for it.) silver wouldn't be as barter able as you might think it would be.

Guns as you said are out of the question, and as every one else said it's a bad idea to be buying them now any way. Honestly if it was me I would either invest in some training, or invest in some gear you will be able to use over there to keep you alive worse case. Or better yet you could do what I like to do when I leave the country and save it up along with other money so you can get what ever you feel like when you return to America.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:12 am
by Doctorr Fabulous
I wan to go on record as saying guns are basically NEVER an investment. Basically. Most guns lose value. Almost none of them gain enough value to be a useful investment. Right now I can't think of anything that would be an investment.

Now, if you were looking to get your first .22 rifle, or a used target pistol you might do okay. If you can find a decent deal on trade-in stuff, then sure. Don't buy anything now at 3x the price because you're afraid you won't be able to get it later. That's how you end up like some of our members with a $250 stripped S&W MP15 lower, or the guys I saw at every gun show I went to since 2005 who were trying to get $900 out of their ban-era Colt HBAR that they paid $2500 for.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:25 am
by Razor
Also as a side point to what Doc is saying I've seen a good bit of panic buying in my day but I have so far never seen a gun become unavailable ever again.

I remember my grandpa saying I would never be able to own an AK back in 94. Now I own two of them and a shot ton of "high cap" mags for them both. So if fear of not being able to get a gun later on is driving you to buy now that's a bad idea.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:44 am
by Bombastic
I can see I've come to the right place,

I suspected as much in regards to the firearms being a bad idea as it's essentially a panic out there but I had the worry of "if I wait until any legislation does happen then prices will REALLY spike." but overall I agree that think it's gonna be smart to wait it out and see what happens and if they do ban semi-autos, pump shotguns will still likely be legal and I can personally live with that.

I was surprised to see that you guys don't see silver as a good investment (but I totally agree to avoid the "GET GOLD HERE" set ups). I personally feel that gold is highly overpriced but that chart (especially when compared with gold) certainly does seem to show that silver is equally overpriced and that traditional savings methods will probably be a better idea.

As to why in the world anyone would voluntarily go to Kyrgyzstan (a lot of my friends who live in post-Soviet countries are trying to get out!), I just graduated with a BA in International Affairs, specializing specifically in Post-Soviet countries, and am planning to go to graduate school next. One of the options is the "American University of Central Asia" (which is an actual accredited school, unlike several other unrelated schools using the title "American University"). I personally know several people who have attended or are currently attending the school (all either Russians or Kyrgyz though) that I met while I was doing an internship last year. None of them encountered any serious safety issues during the 2010 protests/riots/revolution that toppled the Government and the ethnic violence that followed occurred almost entirely in the south of the country and was mainly targeted against ethnic Uzbeks. Judging from your picture Razor, I am guessing that you were at the Transit Center. Some of my friends in the Air Force (who are the only Westerners I know to have visited) have also told me that that country is nice from the experiences they've had. While the scheduled closing of the Transit Center and US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 might cause some instability in the country, an increasing Russian presence in the region (the current Kyrgyz President is strongly pro-Russian and Vladimir Putin recently signed several deals extending Russia's military presence through 2030) might keep the country safe for the near future.

http://www.auca.kg/en/masters_of_central_asian_studies/

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 2:35 am
by Ad'lan
Best thing I can think to do with that cash now is save it. There are a lot more likely disasters that having a few hundred bucks in your bank account will help with.

Or food, water and a good first aid kit, if you haven't got them yet.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 3:35 am
by Ansgar
I'm gonna have to agree with everything posted so far. To expand on what jnathan mentioned, quality training is always a good investment. I see you are preparing to matriculate into Masters' candidacy, congratulations on your continued education (I'm still waiting to hear back from the MA programs I've applied to). You may want to consider training to be a form of expansion for your marketable post-college skills. Classes like CERT, CPR + AED, First Aid, Volunteer Firefighter or other crisis management training would be helpful for any line of work and may even give your Resume/CV a little boost when looking at you for working in a field with a constantly fluid political/social/economic setting.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:46 am
by ODA 226
Doctorr Fabulous wrote:I wan to go on record as saying guns are basically NEVER an investment. Basically. Most guns lose value. Almost none of them gain enough value to be a useful investment.
The key word here is "basically". I have quite a few NFA Class III firearms that have really increased in value over the years. For example, I bought an Uzi SMG in 1984 for $900.00 and could sell it today for no less than $8,500 to $10,000. Even my M-11 9mm SMG that I also bought in 1984 for $600.00 currently retails for over $3,000.00.

I think I've done pretty well "investing" in firearms, but as you implied, timing is everything!

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:55 am
by Doctorr Fabulous
ODA 226 wrote:
Doctorr Fabulous wrote:I wan to go on record as saying guns are basically NEVER an investment. Basically. Most guns lose value. Almost none of them gain enough value to be a useful investment.
The key word here is "basically". I have quite a few NFA Class III firearms that have really increased in value over the years. For example, I bought an Uzi SMG in 1984 for $900.00 and could sell it today for no less than $8,500 to $10,000. Even my M-11 9mm SMG that I also bought in 1984 for $600.00 currently retails for over $3,000.00.

I think I've done pretty well "investing" in firearms, but as you implied, timing is everything!
Yeah, that would not have happened save for one intrinsic limiting factor which could not have been forecast when you purchased it. If it had, my family would be about $3 million richer, based solely on the amount of NFA stuff that we moved between 1984 and 1992. Similarly, if my great grandaddy had held onto the WWI bringbacks and a couple of others (Surplus M1903 and an original FA Thompson) then I'd be buying a house and a new truck with that Thompson, and paying for college with those rifles and pistols.

it's pretty rare for modern, non-NFA stuff to have a decent value spike, although I've done pretty well on magazines. Like jnathan said, timing is the key to investing. Just because my old man's first car (68 Mustang) is worth a lot more today than when he bought it used in 1972 doesn't mean that my first car will be worth shit in 50 years.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 10:46 am
by jnathan
Also, not that it's any of our business, but Bombastic didn't mention if he's got undergrad debt. The interest rates for student loans have creeped up a bit over the past 8-10 years and while you ought to "pay yourself first", you have to balance that with what you'd be expected to pay every month if you lost your job.

I think we all agree that saving is a good idea, period, and that saving cash is very important as well. Investing is what you do when you have money that you don't need liquid and you have the opportunity to make it grow. I suspect liquidity is what Bombastic is after.

In terms of what to bring with, the same sorts of things we usually talk about wanting to have with us apply: a FAK, leatherman, compass, maps and consulate information, appropriate clothing and communications equipment would be pretty high on my list.

-Jeff

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 11:03 am
by mantis
I guess the first question is do you have your survival basics in order? You can't eat silver. It can't keep you warm. Same goes with a firearm. My advice would be:

1) Spend the money now on the basics - food, water, shelter, warmth, etc.
2) Either buy a firearm that has not experienced a fear-driving price gouge or wait until the prices go back to normal.
3) Once all of those basics are covered and more, then consider something like silver or other precious medals. I don't bother with them at all. Why buy up gold and silver at inflated prices with the hopes of being able to trade it down the road for food/water that I could just as easily buy now and store?

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 11:42 am
by raptor
Never been to Kyrgyrstan (thank God!) but I have been to Baku in Azerbaijan several times. US dollars were welcome $5, $10 & $20 preferred they did not like $50 for some reason and $100 always brought a smile.

USD transport much more conveniently than gold or silver. Not that I would ever suggest that you secretly keep cash on your person and not declare it...:D

I have no experience trying to convert gold or silver in that area but I suspect that it would be a PITA.

This advice may be dated (again thank God!) but in my experience:

When you use money in that region to "facilitate" a transaction. Never do it openly, never say if I give $x will you do this. You simply give the money in an extend handshake. If the amount is not enough they will let you know, generally at a less than opportune moment. :roll:

Also giving more lower denomination bills is better than a single large denomination bill. It makes it easier to split with his friends or the boss. A large bill also says I have a lot of money and this is the smallest bill I have so please ask for more.

BTW never ask for change or a receipt. :lol:


As for silver if you want silver simply some silver dollars or silver quarters. The silver eagles you describe typically (but not always) have more markup on them than a regular pre-1964 silver dollar or quarters. Also shop around at home and on line. Typically I never recommend PMs as an investment until the person has built up a cash reserve of 6 months expenses, paid off any (except fixed rate mortgage debt) loans and is looking for place to keep excess cash that is sitting in an FDIC insured bank at the typical silly low interest rate.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 11:54 am
by shrapnel
If you have loans, I'd keep enough liquid cash in the bank or somewhere to be able to pay those, and bills, off for a few months in case of some sort of educational/financial upheaval. I know I'm going to be in debt up way, way past my eyeballs when I graduate, so I'm not going to be buying anything at all for a long time. If I was in your position, I'd save the money, just in case. But maybe you don't have loans, and are talking about money you have in addition to a savings safety net. If so, training or something useful, like food/water/whatever sort of preps. Or buy a fun gun, but don't expect it to be an investment.

PS- don't buy silver now. The price is insanely high, and that is never a good time to buy. I'm selling a bunch of jewelry scraps this afternoon, actually, because what the fuck good is it doing me sitting around gathering value that's just going to crash eventually?

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 1:54 pm
by Bombastic
I have been fortunate enough to finish my undergraduate degree without any debt (State scholarships, private scholarships, work-study, finishing a semester early) and I'm hoping to get a job for a few years to save up for graduate school. The Kyrgyzstan idea is a Plan B for if I'm unable to find a job in the new few months. Tuition equates to "only" about $5,000 a semester in the local currency so I think I should be able to get the degree there without without getting myself into an insurmountable amount of debt (although there are more expenses to worry about than just tuition). The "low" cost isn't' the ONLY reason I'm considering that school though.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 2:22 pm
by Mikeyboy
Bombastic wrote:I've got two different questions for you guys and I hope I'm in the right place to get some good opinions.

I've recently finished college and have a few hundred dollars saved up for myself and for several weeks now I've been thinking about turning it into Silver Eagles as long term investment, silver being about $30 an ounce right now. However I've been swept up into the recent panic that guns might be banned soon and am now strongly thinking about spending the money on a firearm, specifically a AK variant.

My second question might be off topic but it somewhat related. At some point in the future I might spend two years in Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet republic in Central Asia, a unstable country in an unstable region. Possessing a gun in such a country would be totally out of the question but having some silver coins might be useful in a country where the government could essentially collapse at any moment, but could I even be able to bring them with me from the US? A simple Google search shows that Kyrgyz Authorities require you to declare all precious metals when entering the country and I could easily see a corrupt Customs Officer stealing them.

So is silver or a semi-auto rifle a better use of my money and does anyone know anything about bring precious metals into other countries?

Rich people say, "Buy Low, Sell High" . Buying something that is priced high like gold, guns, silver or real estate in the middle of a buying fever or panic is a mistake that keeps poor people poor.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:05 pm
by Razor
Bombastic wrote:Judging from your picture Razor, I am guessing that you were at the Transit Center. Some of my friends in the Air Force (who are the only Westerners I know to have visited) have also told me that that country is nice from the experiences they've had. While the scheduled closing of the Transit Center and US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 might cause some instability in the country, an increasing Russian presence in the region (the current Kyrgyz President is strongly pro-Russian and Vladimir Putin recently signed several deals extending Russia's military presence through 2030) might keep the country safe for the near future.

You've got me all figure out. My first time there it was ok (Leaving America going to the Stan) my second time there (Leaving the Stan going to America) it was Heavenly, grass, wifi, and not an MRE in sight. Ooooooh and smokes too not cheap middle eastern ones either. But any way all that aside from what I was able to understand talking with the people stationed there the area is rather stable all things considered and I didn't get the vibe that it would be all that high risk of an area for an economic collapse.

I figured it was probably a school thing was the reason you where thinking about going over there, honestly I think you should really consider it. Growing up I spent some time in Italy before graduating Highschool and it was a very eye opening experiences. I highly recommend traveling around as much as you can particularly with your field of study. It's one thing to read about a culture it's a whole different thing to live in it. I've never regretted any of my opportunities to visit different areas of the world, if any thing at the least it just makes you more grateful when you do come back home. I've always found that no matter how nice the place you visit is nothing can replace home.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:24 pm
by Bombastic
I highly recommend traveling around as much as you can particularly with your field of study. It's one thing to read about a culture it's a whole different thing to live in it. I've never regretted any of my opportunities to visit different areas of the world, if any thing at the least it just makes you more grateful when you do come back home. I've always found that no matter how nice the place you visit is nothing can replace home.
Exactly why I want to do it. Did a year of ROTC my freshman year in college and found that military just wasn't for me but I still want to get out there and see the world.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:26 pm
by Razor
At least you figured it out after a little bit in ROTC I can't tell you how many people don't figure it out until a year or so after they joined up. Then they just end up being a head ache for every one else.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 10:30 pm
by 2now
I have to disagree with the idea that firearms are never a good investment. As with any investment, you need to know more about it than the other people investing agsint you. I made several good gun deals at a firearm auction mistakenly held on the opening day of elk season in rural Oregon.
But if you are not sure that you know more about the product you are investing in than the other guy, invest in education, until you do.

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:44 am
by gomez000123
@Razor i did not understand your comment can you explain please

Re: Guns vs Silver + Silver and International Travel

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 4:50 am
by ODA 226
Razor wrote:At least you figured it out after a little bit in ROTC I can't tell you how many people don't figure it out until a year or so after they joined up. Then they just end up being a head ache for every one else.
HAHAHA! I was "asked" to leave ROTC after one year! :rofl: