If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Discuss those "what if" or "what would you do" scenarios you've been wondering about.

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If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by kickback » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:38 pm

I have heard and read various sources that if Israel is nuked (say 1 nuke on Tel Aviv), that the Israel fail safe plan is to nuke every Muslim Capital on the planet and various Muslim large cities.

So we are talking well over 50 Nukes.

What would your plan be? (as An American)


Considering no bombs fall in America...
How much fallout?
How long.

I have to think we all better stay indoors as much as possible for a few months.

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If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by RockMedic » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:43 pm

And it would be years before we could grow crops again due to the cloud cover....
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by raptor » Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:07 pm

A nuke on Tel Aviv would be a disaster. Israel is reported to have fewer than 200 nukes but no one outside of the top Israeli circles knows for sure.

A first nuclear strike by Iran would likely result in world condemnation and may actually result in a nuclear response from a variety sources, among them the US and possibly NATO. That said IMO Israel would not nuke other Arab capitals assuming they have nukes since that response would also be frowned upon by Israeli allies.

A more likely scenario is a tit for tat nuclear exchange, for instance Tehran for Tel Aviv.

That said a nuclear exchange with 50 warheads would not be TEOTHWAWKI and global radioactive clouds. A lot would depend upon on where and how the nukes were employed. Air bursts generate more radioactive debris penatrator warheads much less. Neutron weapons not so much fallout 1MT warheads a lot more fallout.

Due to high altitude winds the fallout patterns will from west to east so India, china and the pacific countries will face higher levels of radioactive debris long before any radioactive debris hits the US.

Exactly how much fallout an exchange of 50 weapons would yield is very hard to say with certainly. IMO it would not be that bad in the US and Europe due to the distance. Don't get me wrong I am not saying the result would be nominal.

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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by Israel » Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:18 pm

No nukes will fall. EVAR! Those who run Iran may be crazy, they're not stupid (why would they risk fallout on their own country just to get them). Any major war will be based on conventional weapons.

As an added bonus, history has show us that every time a country fights Israel, it doesn't normally end well for the other side.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of ... nse_Forces

If they did... North America and Europe get involved then WWIII and we end up seeing what it's like to live in the Fallout universe.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by Rev » Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:32 pm

America would not necessarily have to respond with nukes. We have the capability to dismantle Iran using conventional means.

The real question would be why Iran would nuke Israel. I can not see how that would benefit them.

I'd be more worried about a scenario involving Israel in a losing war with its neighbors.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by TheGunslinger » Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:54 pm

Depends on whether cooler heads prevail or not, I'd imagine.

With Tel Aviv gone or mass casualties, I'm not sure there would just be a tit-for-tat exchanged if it was left up to Israel. Hopefully it won't be left up to them, but I can certainly see their point of view.

That said, it would be a limited exchange and would entirely depend on circumstances at the time before you could make any sort of call about what the impact would be, world wide.

No doubt oil prices would skyrocket due to the uncertainty in the area. Wouldn't be surprised if Iran closed the straights of Hormuz because fuck you, really.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by TacAir » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:16 am

Not new news

Mordechai Vanunu worked at Dimona Nuclear Power Plant in Israel from 1976 to 1985 as a technician and learned about Israel's secret production of plutonium for nuclear weapons. In 1985 Vanunu believed it was his responsibility to inform the citizens of Israel as well as the rest of the world that nuclear weapons were being built and stored in Israel.

On October 5, 1986, the London Sunday Times newspaper headlines boldly announced, "Revealed: The Secrets of Israel's Nuclear Arsenal." The startling story, based on interviews with Vanunu and the 60 photographs he provided showing Israeli plutonium spheres used for triggers in nuclear warheads, revealed that Israel was fast developing nuclear weapons.

In detail, Vanunu's data showed that Israel possessed over 200 bombs with boosted devices, neutron bombs, F-16 deliverable warheads, and Jericho warheads. The boosted weapons shown in the Vanunu photographs revealed a sophistication that inferred the requirement for testing. Vanunu revealed for the first time the underground plutonium separation facility where Israel was producing 40 kilograms annually, several times more than previous estimates. Photographs showed sophisticated designs which scientific experts say enabled the Israelis to build bombs with as little as 4 kilograms of plutonium.

Jericho III is a true ICBM with the legs to loft (6?) MIVR'd warheads or single 1 MT 11,500 KM (1000 to 1300 kg) weapon.

AND

As early as 1976, the CIA believed that Israel possessed 10 to 20 nuclear weapons. By 2002 it was estimated that the number had increased to between 75 and 200 thermonuclear weapons, each in the multiple-megaton range. Kenneth S. Brower has estimated as many as 400 nuclear weapons. These can be launched from land, sea and air. This gives Israel a second strike option (the so-called Sampson option) even if much of the country is destroyed

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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by MacAttack » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:27 am

I do not think it would be a tit-for-tat game.

Unless I ran jumps up and screams they did it.

There are several other sources for a nuclear weapon. Pakistan and N.Korea for two.

The the air defenses in Israel and between Israel and Iran an air launched strike would stand little chance of reaching Israel. The best strike would come by land or sea. Iran would have to either sacrifice its only sub in a short range missile launch or just ship it in by cargo boat.

They can always just hand it over to the Palestinians and let them take the blame. Israel will NOT nuke its own boarder unless it was to stop a MAJOR invasion.


A cheaper way would be to buy a stolen oil tanker off of Somalia and mix in a large amount of semi-refined or yellow cake uranium into the oil. Beach it on the Israeli shore and light it up.
There are also East Asian pirates closer to N. Korea that could be used for this also. And N.Korea might just sell you everything but the maps.

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If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by TN-Shooter » Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:14 am

Rev wrote:The real question would be why Iran would nuke Israel. I can not see how that would benefit them.
It's a religious war that has been going on since biblical times. In there minds anything they do to aggravate Israel is beneficial.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by phil_in_cs » Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:06 am

TN-Shooter wrote:
Rev wrote:The real question would be why Iran would nuke Israel. I can not see how that would benefit them.
It's a religious war that has been going on since biblical times. In there minds anything they do to aggravate Israel is beneficial.
Let's keep religious issues and motivations out of this. The question posed is what would you do if it happened, not why they did it.

A nuclear exchange in that area would have a bigger economic impact here from oil shortages than any radiological impact. We nuked New Mexico many times; and the south Pacific many more times, with only minimal fallout. Russia, China, and France have all nuked themselves or colonial holdings as well.
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If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by TN-Shooter » Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:17 am

phil_in_cs wrote:
TN-Shooter wrote:
Rev wrote:The real question would be why Iran would nuke Israel. I can not see how that would benefit them.
It's a religious war that has been going on since biblical times. In there minds anything they do to aggravate Israel is beneficial.
Let's keep religious issues and motivations out of this. The question posed is what would you do if it happened, not why they did it.
Are you serious? A question was asked and I answered. Re-read what was asked.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by mr_slappy75 » Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:27 am

phil_in_cs wrote:
TN-Shooter wrote:
Rev wrote:The real question would be why Iran would nuke Israel. I cannot see how that would benefit them.
It's a religious war that has been going on since biblical times. In there minds anything they do to aggravate Israel is beneficial.
Let's keep religious issues and motivations out of this. The question posed is what would you do if it happened, not why they did it.

A nuclear exchange in that area would have a bigger economic impact here from oil shortages than any radiological impact. We nuked New Mexico many times; and the south Pacific many more times, with only minimal fallout. Russia, China, and France have all nuked themselves or colonial holdings as well.
Phil, thank you for the remainder…I caught myself writing a socio/political/religious historically based response and then saw your post. Thanks for the spot, I really almost jumped too willingly into that one.

Rev / TN, please not saying you not should talk about it, but please take it to PMs if you wish to pursue and do let me know if you, do I’d gladly partake.

That being said, for those of you old enough to recall all the brouhaha after Chernobyl, Do you recall how USSR neighboring countries found themselves doubting the safety of consuming their livestock, dairy and some of their crops? More recently Japan’s Fukushima, seafood and produce harvest on the area is either under question and/or outright not safe to eat.

On neither instance was the US directly affected as far a importing consumables from either location. Aside from crude oil, there may be food items we import from middle-Eastern countries that will become scarce as their radiation count makes them unsafe. When one factors in the Eastwardly bound fallout spread pattern mentioned above, South East Asia is likely to be affected and thus have crops of questionable safe consumption value. Likely a lot of exotic fruits we mostly see as canned items, maybe spices as well.

Prices on these are bound to spike for a while as safe supplies dwindle and before other producers for these such as Africa, South - Central America and the Caribbean manage to up their own output to pick up the slack.

There is also likely to be a run on iodine radiation treatment products as there was when Fukushima happened and certain medical supplies will also become high value items in the affected zone.

Close to the impact areas, I’d dare say they would be shortages of all kinds of commercial and industrial equipment for the survivors or secondarily affected victims to be able to use, so production of these by responding countries may spike as/if when aid starts pouring in.

I guess in an egotistical self-centered way, my own preps would center around keeping an eye for tell-tale signs on the media and stock accordingly.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by phil_in_cs » Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:39 am

TN-Shooter wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:
TN-Shooter wrote:
Rev wrote:The real question would be why Iran would nuke Israel. I can not see how that would benefit them.
It's a religious war that has been going on since biblical times. In there minds anything they do to aggravate Israel is beneficial.
Let's keep religious issues and motivations out of this. The question posed is what would you do if it happened, not why they did it.
Are you serious? A question was asked and I answered. Re-read what was asked.
I am very serious. I am discussing what the OP asked. You and TN Shooter can take the other discussion elsewhere.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by Rev » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:12 am

My apologies, I wasn't looking into getting into anything religious or political. The scenario just seems unlikely to me is all. I'll bow out of this one.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:25 am

I submit that any action, whether an act of war, rebellion, or insurgency has a worldwide effect. Oil is the elephant in the Middle Eastern room, so to speak, but we forget the trade routes down the Suez, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman/Yemen, the UAE, Dubai. All of these wealthy nations, not all of them rely solely on barrels of crude. Any kind of security contracting in that area (even private sector) ranges between $350 and $900 per day per man, and that's without a flaring war between age old enemies. Nuke or conventionally bomb of of the Mid-Eastern power capitals, and those costs are going to rise, which means shipping costs will rise. The US is a relatively new problem for the Middle East, whereas tensions and even wars have been fought over the Mediterranean coast since the days of the Phoenician mercantile fleet.

Recap:
Not just oil, but a number of important trade routes would be at risk, not to speak of the air-travel that would be impacted. Someone bombs your capitol, and the no fly zone gets HUGE, I'd bet a paycheck on that.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by Vicarious_Lee » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:43 am

raptor wrote:A more likely scenario is a tit for tat nuclear exchange, for instance Tehran for Tel Aviv.
I know for a fact, and in some cases personally, that there are a LOOOOOOOOOT of people in Tehran that like America, don't have any kind of beef with Israel, and want to not be radioactive.

A majority, actually.

Also, I thought the 4 stages of a nuclear weapon's development are procurement, enrichment, detonation, and then delivery. Iran's barely at the enrichment stage, which, unless Russia sells them some shit, that puts Iran behind N. Korea in terms of their weapons program.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by DarkAxel » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:52 am

If Israel gets nuked and retaliates, I expect the U.S. will be drawn into the conflict due to a number of political issues that I won't go into here. I'd bolster my food preps, expand my garden area, and finally get those fuel storage barrels I've had my eye on, because I expect 1.)petroleum products will skyrocket, maybe even another embargo, 2.)the price of everything else will go up because of the cost of shipping, and 3.)the already rocky economy will get worse.

I'd also have to pull out some of my backup plans in case I get recalled to service.

I'd also do my religious thing and send well wishes to the troops on the ground in Afghanistan, because they will need it.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by kickback » Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:13 am

Someone said Israel would not nuke their neighbors, with Tel Aviv gone.
I think Egypt, Syria, ect. would "smell blood in the water" and most likely take advantage of chaos in Israel and invade, IE Cairo, and Damascus would be gone.
Now would they nuke every Muslim capital, who knows, my original question was "what would you do" to protect yourself from the low to medium amount of fall out.

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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by raptor » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:07 pm

kickback wrote: my original question was "what would you do" to protect yourself from the low to medium amount of fall out.
As had been said before...It depends upon your location and the exposure you receive. In the US the radiation exposure would likely be minimal unless there was a massive exchange.

What I would do if I was worried is this:

http://zombiehunters.org/forum/viewtopi ... 6&t=100260" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


I would want to know independently from any official source what my exposure level was. I would know this since I have previously surveyed my home and know what a "normal" background reading was and I would notice an elevation in the background radiation level.

The answer to your question is I would prepare ahead of time to at least have the ability to identify a risk.


I would also note that any use of a nuclear weapon would attract US and NATO attention as well as China, France and Russia. Especially if any attack or counter attack affects their sovereign territory in any way.

The US (as well as UK, China, India and Israel...even though they don't claim to have any nuclear weapons) has a stated No First Use policy. However the US has publicly stated that use of nuclear weapons against US soil, any NATO country and wide variety of named and unnamed allies will be considered an attack on the US (in which case the NFU policy is moot). The US reserves the right to use nuclear weapons to deal such an attack.

NATO has not formally adopted the NFU policy and reserves all rights in the case of an attack against any NATO country.

IMO opinion any nuclear exchange involving Israel would be short but quite violent.


The affect would unhinge at least for a short time the global markets...$5,000 oz increase in gold and $300/BBL oil for at least a few weeks.

So have some gasoline, food and routine supplies stockpiled in addition to a radiation detector.

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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by TacAir » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:33 pm

Vicarious_Lee wrote:
raptor wrote:A more likely scenario is a tit for tat nuclear exchange, for instance Tehran for Tel Aviv.
I know for a fact, and in some cases personally, that there are a LOOOOOOOOOT of people in Tehran that like America, don't have any kind of beef with Israel, and want to not be radioactive.

A majority, actually.

Also, I thought the 4 stages of a nuclear weapon's development are procurement, enrichment, detonation, and then delivery. Iran's barely at the enrichment stage, which, unless Russia sells them some shit, that puts Iran behind N. Korea in terms of their weapons program.
They already have the t-shirt from the Norks.

"Germany’s Die Welt newspaper reported Sunday that Iran held at least one nuclear weapons test in North Korea in 2010.

The paper’s report is based on “Western intelligence agencies sources,” and says that the test, in fact, refutes US intelligence assessments suggesting there is no “hard evidence” that Iran is building nuclear weapons.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has recently declared that its nuclear negotiations with Iran have failed."

More on topic -
This study presents a brief description of the major civilian effects if a nuclear conflict between Iran and Israel takes place in the future, assuming by then that Iran has a fully operational nuclear weapons capability, and the possible broader impact on other countries in the Middle East such as Jordan and Damascus. Threat perceptions and security concerns between Israel and Iran could reach to a critical point that a nuclear exchange becomes inevitable, even if limited in nature, between the two countries.
(Source book)
Yup, they wrote a book on it - as you might guess. Written in 2009, some of the information is a bit dated. Lots of charts, to include wind charts.

The blog-o-shere hasn't been silent on this -
"Hijacked Iranian Ship was a Dirty Bomb Meant for Israel on Yom Kippur"

On August 21st, 2008, the MV Iran Deyant, 44,458 dead weight bulk carrier was heading towards the Suez Canal. As it was passing the Horn of Africa, about 80 miles southeast of al-Makalla in Yemen, the ship was surrounded by speedboats filled with members of a gang of Somalian pirates who grab suitable commercial ships and hold them and their cargos and crews for ransom. The captain was defenseless against the 40 pirates armed with AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades blocking his passage. He had little choice other than to turn his ship over to them. What the pirates were not banking on, however, was that this was no ordinary ship."

Ya, Russian even. (Source, such as it is) You provide your own salt for this one. Still, it shows we here are not alone in thinking of the fallout, so as to speak.

FWIW, Robert Heinlein was the first to posit the use of radioactive dust as a weapon. His story “Solution Unsatisfactory,” was written in 1940.

No need for fiction, things are strange enough now.
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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by raptor » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:05 pm

TacAir wrote: The blog-o-shere hasn't been silent on this -
"Hijacked Iranian Ship was a Dirty Bomb Meant for Israel on Yom Kippur"

On August 21st, 2008, the MV Iran Deyant, 44,458 dead weight bulk carrier was heading towards the Suez Canal. As it was passing the Horn of Africa, about 80 miles southeast of al-Makalla in Yemen, the ship was surrounded by speedboats filled with members of a gang of Somalian pirates who grab suitable commercial ships and hold them and their cargos and crews for ransom. The captain was defenseless against the 40 pirates armed with AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades blocking his passage. He had little choice other than to turn his ship over to them. What the pirates were not banking on, however, was that this was no ordinary ship."

Ya, Russian even. (Source, such as it is) You provide your own salt for this one. Still, it shows we here are not alone in thinking of the fallout, so as to speak.

FWIW, Robert Heinlein was the first to posit the use of radioactive dust as a weapon. His story “Solution Unsatisfactory,” was written in 1940.

No need for fiction, things are strange enough now.
If a quarter of that is true... :shock:

However, I love it... pirates...They hijack a ship...They demand the cargo doors to be opened... along with a ransom... pirates die from mysterious sickness caused by cargo...Iran say no thanks you can keep the ship and the cargo...pirates now stuck with deadly cargo and contaminated ship. :rofl:

I would not wish that on anyone...but if it had to happen...well it could not happen to a more deserving cast of characters.

I agree who needs fiction...it sounds like a Three Stooges Movie...
Last edited by raptor on Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by TacAir » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:08 pm

raptor wrote:
TacAir wrote: The blog-o-shere hasn't been silent on this -
"Hijacked Iranian Ship was a Dirty Bomb Meant for Israel on Yom Kippur"

On August 21st, 2008, the MV Iran Deyant, 44,458 dead weight bulk carrier was heading towards the Suez Canal. As it was passing the Horn of Africa, about 80 miles southeast of al-Makalla in Yemen, the ship was surrounded by speedboats filled with members of a gang of Somalian pirates who grab suitable commercial ships and hold them and their cargos and crews for ransom. The captain was defenseless against the 40 pirates armed with AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades blocking his passage. He had little choice other than to turn his ship over to them. What the pirates were not banking on, however, was that this was no ordinary ship."

Ya, Russian even. (Source, such as it is) You provide your own salt for this one. Still, it shows we here are not alone in thinking of the fallout, so as to speak.

FWIW, Robert Heinlein was the first to posit the use of radioactive dust as a weapon. His story “Solution Unsatisfactory,” was written in 1940.

No need for fiction, things are strange enough now.
If a quarter of that is true... :shock:

However, I love it... pirates...They hijack a ship...They demand the cargo doors to be opened... along with a ransom... pirates die from radiation sickness caused by cargo...Iran say no thanks you can keep the ship and the cargo...pirates now stuck with deadly ship. :rofl:

I agree who needs fiction...it sounds like a Three Stooges Movie...
LoL

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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by raptor » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:47 pm

TacAir wrote:LoL

"Is Ruskki"
Here are some links to the incident which occurred in 2008 ...again nothing is certain except that a ship was seized and released and when it docked in Rotterdam some time later there was no reported trace of a hazardous cargo aboard.


Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV_Iran_Deyanat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://edition.presstv.ir/detail/69204.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news ... 6db4031957" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/ ... nds_hi.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: If Iran Nukes Israel? and Israel Retaliates....

Post by Erik » Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:32 pm

Vicarious_Lee wrote:
raptor wrote:A more likely scenario is a tit for tat nuclear exchange, for instance Tehran for Tel Aviv.
I know for a fact, and in some cases personally, that there are a LOOOOOOOOOT of people in Tehran that like America, don't have any kind of beef with Israel, and want to not be radioactive.

A majority, actually.

Also, I thought the 4 stages of a nuclear weapon's development are procurement, enrichment, detonation, and then delivery. Iran's barely at the enrichment stage, which, unless Russia sells them some shit, that puts Iran behind N. Korea in terms of their weapons program.
From everything I've read, I agree with your point that the people of Iran are pretty much okay with Americans. It's the American government they have a beef with. Unfortunately, it isn't the generally peaceful Iranian population that would have control over the nukes, but some of the crazy nuts that run the government. Important members of the government have dealings with terrorist organizations and therefore nobody has a clue what craziness could happen if Iran actually reaches their nuclear weapons goal.

It is not an ideal situation.

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