Current MERS outbreak Thread(Formerly Sars like coronavirus)

Stuff that’s happening in the world that may pertain to our survival. Please keep political debates off the forum.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by sheddi » Thu May 02, 2013 2:52 pm

Outbreak of novel coronavirus ("hCoV-EMC") in Saudi Arabia leaves five dead:

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?page ... -39068-SAU" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
RSOE EDIS wrote:Five Saudis have died of a new SARS-like virus during the past few days and two more are being treated in an intensive care unit, the health ministry said. In a statement cited by the Saudi SPA agency late on Wednesday, the ministry said that all the deaths occurred in the Ahsaa province in the oil-rich eastern region of the kingdom. Known as novel coronavirus or hCoV-EMC, the virus was first detected in mid-2012 and is a cousin of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which triggered a scare 10 years ago when it erupted in east Asia, leaping to humans from animal hosts. The health ministry said it is taking "all precautionary measures for persons who have been in contact with the infected people... and has taken samples from them to examine if they are infected." However, the ministry gave no figures for how many people have been examined to see if they have the lethal disease. Sixteen people have now died from 23 cases detected in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Germany and Britain. Riyadh has accounted for most of the deaths, with 11 people including the five new fatalities.
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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by sheddi » Mon May 06, 2013 12:25 pm

Death toll from the current Saudi Arabian outbreak now seven, from 13 cases.

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?page ... &uid=13739" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
RSOE EDIS wrote:The number of infected due to the new SARS-like novel coronavirus in Saudi Arabia have jumped to 13 cases, of which seven have already died. First reported to the attention of the World Health Organization last Wednesday, health authorities said five of those who had earlier died have not travelled abroad, arousing suspicions and theories the infections could have originated right within the country's health-care facilities. "After questioning relatives, it turned out that none of these people had been abroad before being infected," Dr Ziad Mimish, who heads the health ministry's disease prevention unit. First identified September 2012 in the Middle East, the global count for the new SARS-like novel coronavirus is now 30 cases. Of those, 18 people have died.
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Saudi Coronavirus Spreads to France

Post by Pilsung » Wed May 08, 2013 8:14 am

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/ ... V720130508" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
May 8 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia has had 13 cases in a recent outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus that has emerged from the Gulf and spread as far as Britain and France, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, and seven of those have died.

Saudi Arabia has reported 23 confirmed cases in total, Qatar two, Jordan two, Britain two and the United Arab Emirates one, the WHO said. Although there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human spread, there are concerns about clusters of cases.

France reported its first case on Wednesday.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Boondock » Sun May 12, 2013 10:32 am

Here's an update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22502143" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Pilsung » Sun May 12, 2013 11:58 am

And another....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-1 ... ted-france" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
While the H7N9 birdflu epidemic is still raging in China, with 4 news deaths bringing the total confirmed death toll to 31 (and who knows how many unconfirmed) on 129 infections leading to a mortality rate that is simply staggering, even if the mordibity rate is largely a function of Chinese data censorship, Europe and the middle east may be set for a viral breakout of their own.

First is the case of Saudi Arabia, where two more people have died from novel coronavirus, a new strain of the virus similar to the one that caused SARS, in an outbreak in al-Ahsa region of Saudi Arabia, the deputy health minister for public health said on Sunday. Ziad Memish said that in the latest cluster of infections, 15 cases had been confirmed, and nine of those patients had died.

As a reminder, the slow burning threat of a viral epidemic in Saudi Arabia is not new. It was back in September that the WSJ wrote about a "Mysterious Virus" that had emerged in the Middle East.

"Global health authorities are hunting for cases of a mysterious viral respiratory illness that killed at least one person in Saudi Arabia and left another who traveled there in intensive care in a U.K. hospital. Health officials said the source of the virus infecting both is unknown, though they have identified it as a coronavirus, part of a large family of viruses that in most cases cause common colds, but also have caused SARS. With no indication yet whether the new virus is like SARS, which spread from person to person, officials are tracking this new virus closely."

Some eight months later it seems the neither the epidemic, nor the source, or host, have been identified. As to what the real state of affairs in the Kingdom is, like in China, one must rely on the local media for truthful reporting - something which as Fukushima taught everyone, can be a bitter pill to swallow for some, or most, governments.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by greenbeetle » Sun May 12, 2013 12:27 pm

Sounds like it's a couple mutations away from being the next pandemic.

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Four New Cases of SARS-like Virus in Saudi Arabia

Post by Pilsung » Tue May 14, 2013 4:08 am

http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-4-ne ... 17265.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Saudi Arabia has confirmed four new cases of a deadly new respiratory virus related to SARS that appears centered in the Arabian Peninsula but that has also been reported in Europe.

The official Saudi Press Agency said Tuesday that one patient was treated and released from a hospital, while three others remain under medical care.

Saudi authorities have reported nearly 30 cases since the virus was identified last year. Other cases have appeared in France, Germany and Britain, possibly linked to travel in the Gulf region.

The novel coronavirus has killed at least 18 people since September 2012. The new virus is related to SARS, which killed some 800 people in a global epidemic in 2003, and belongs to a family of viruses that most often causes the common cold.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Ad'lan » Tue May 14, 2013 6:41 am

greenbeetle wrote:Sounds like it's a couple mutations away from being the next pandemic.
Most diseases are.
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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Pilsung » Tue May 14, 2013 5:30 pm

Lots of companies stand to make lots of money from hyping various "flus" for which they conveniently have antidotes, but the potential for a real pandemic cannot be discounted.

http://rt.com/news/panic-sars-virus-spread-249/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Saudi Arabia has confirmed four more cases of the new deadly coronavirus, contributing to global fears over the disease’s spread. Panic of this type has been boosting media ratings and has kept the drugs market bubbling over the last decade.

Four more confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus (nCoV) see the total number of infected in Saudi Arabia reach 28 since the disease was first identified in 2012. Ten more people have been reported to have nCoV in other parts of the world – Jordan, Germany, Britain and France.

One of the freshly-confirmed sick Saudis had already been treated and released from hospital, while three others are still receiving medical assistance, according to the Saudi Press Agency, cited by Reuters.

This surge in the number of detected nCoV cases could result from the fact that overwhelming numbers of Saudis, even those with slightest fever symptoms, have rushed to hospitals for fears of the new virus, which has been deadliest in Saudi Arabia, claiming 15 lives. The disease’s global death toll is 18.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by kcor_77 » Thu May 16, 2013 9:49 am

WHO reports first patient-to-nurse spread of new SARS-like virus

LONDON (Reuters) - Two health workers in Saudi Arabia have become infected with a potentially fatal new SARS-like virus after catching it from patients in their care - the first evidence of such transmission within a hospital, the World Health Organization said.

The new virus, known as novel coronavirus, or nCoV, is from the same family of viruses as those that cause common colds and the one that caused the deadly outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that emerged in Asia in 2003.

"This is the first time health care workers have been diagnosed with (novel coronavirus) infection after exposure to patients," the Geneva-based U.N. health agency said in a disease outbreak update late on Wednesday.

The health workers are a 45-year-old man, who became ill on May 2 and is currently in a critical condition, and a 43-year-old woman with a coexisting health condition, who fell ill on May 8 and is in a stable condition, the WHO said

More at the link
http://news.yahoo.com/reports-first-pat ... 09u;_ylv=3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't like the fact that it now can jump from person to person. If this turns out to be true I wonder how many people the care givers could have gotten sick?
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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Jamie » Thu May 16, 2013 10:10 am

The SARS Pandemic of 2003 killed 775 people when all was said and done...about 1/4 the number of people killed by hippos annually...about 1/8 of the number of people killed by texting last year...

Sars is big business for 24-hour news agencies, for big-pharma, and for panic mongering, but not really a big worry in the grand scheme of things.

JMHO, YMMV.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by jonagik » Thu May 16, 2013 11:29 am

Jamie wrote:The SARS Pandemic of 2003 killed 775 people when all was said and done...about 1/4 the number of people killed by hippos annually...about 1/8 of the number of people killed by texting last year...

Sars is big business for 24-hour news agencies, for big-pharma, and for panic mongering, but not really a big worry in the grand scheme of things.

JMHO, YMMV.

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My understanding is that SARS wasn't, when all was said and done, a huge pandemic. The problem was that, as it was happening, the specifics of the disease were highly unknown and there was the potential for a substantial pandemic. Swine flu was similar.

Be wary of underestimating the potential of potential future pandemics based on relatively recent pandemics.

Source: Doctor I talked to who was practicing as a GP during SARS.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Horatio_Tyllis » Thu May 16, 2013 12:07 pm

Yeah, I spend a lot of time reading about emerging disease and epidemics. SARS was travelling very fast, and if unchecked would have spread openly through most of the world where its' lethality would have been a major issue. We managed to control it very effectively and stop it in it's tracks.
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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Mikeyboy » Thu May 16, 2013 4:19 pm

jonagik wrote:
Jamie wrote:The SARS Pandemic of 2003 killed 775 people when all was said and done...about 1/4 the number of people killed by hippos annually...about 1/8 of the number of people killed by texting last year...

Sars is big business for 24-hour news agencies, for big-pharma, and for panic mongering, but not really a big worry in the grand scheme of things.

JMHO, YMMV.

Jamie
My understanding is that SARS wasn't, when all was said and done, a huge pandemic. The problem was that, as it was happening, the specifics of the disease were highly unknown and there was the potential for a substantial pandemic. Swine flu was similar.

Be wary of underestimating the potential of potential future pandemics based on relatively recent pandemics.

Source: Doctor I talked to who was practicing as a GP during SARS.
+1 like what was mentioned on the H7N5 bird flu thread, SARS in 2003 and today is still a disease that just on the cusp of mutating into something scary. Its all about the fatality ratio and how well it spreads. With the Bird flu for example you have stages;

1) Something that just spreads around with one bred of birds (chicken, duck, etc) and gets birds real sick, no risk to humans.
2) Something that if a human directly handles a sick bird, and body fluids, they can catch it.
3) Something that if a human directly handles a sick bird or indirectly handles or breathes in droppings, body fluids, meat, feathers etc either on the ground or even in the air (aka aresol), they can get sick.
4) Something that a human catches from a bird, brings it home and like #2 if a friend or family member is in a enclosed room and directly touching that sick person, and direct touching of body fluids , they can catch the virus, but the symptoms are less severe then with the bird to human infected person, and its even harder to spread.
5) same as #4, but each human to human transfer is just as bad, and spread just as easy.
6) Is the human to human transfer like #3, so if I sneeze and cough with the bird flu those droplets can float in the air and infect others, If I wipe my nose or sweat, and I touch a door handle, anyone touching that door handle can get infected depending on how long that virus can live on a surface. Some viruses last only 24 hours, while other its 14 days.


Ebola started as a hemmoragic fever in animals in the Congo, but that recently that can spread from animals to humans. In terms of infection is a 4 to 5. If you directly touch someone with Ebola, or mess with the fluids ooozing out, you can catch it. The good news is, its not that easy to catch if you don't make contact with the host, its easy to spot someone who is infected, the person usually gets real sick within 4 days and if they die it will usually be withing 12 days. This and the fact that its in the wilds of the congo makes it hard to go epidemic, which is a good thing because the mortality rate of Ebola is 68%.

The common flu is #6 with a high infection rate (the easy of you catching it if you are not careful and get exposed) , however the mortality rate is super low at .01%, still with its ability to spread and infect easily even with the low mortality rate it will directly or indirectly kill about 10,000 people in the US every season. However the Spanish Flu of 1918, was basically a novel bird flu that spread even better and faster then the regular flu, especially because of its complete disregard for seasons and temps. Its Mortality rate was only 10 to 20 percent, but since it spread so rapidly and well 1/3 or the wold population caught it, it killed 25 million people within the first 25 weeks of the outbreak and it killed an estimated 50 to 100 million people overall. Basically that means even before the invention of the jet airliner, it spread globally, and killed 3% to 5% of the total world population. As of 2011 the world population was 7 billion. 5% of 7 billion is 350 million...which is more that the total population of the USA and Canada combined.

The current H7N5 bird flu has moved up from a #3 to a #4...sloppy Human to Human transmission. It may never get to a number 5 and hopefully not a #6, however the mortality rate of H7N5 is high at 25% and with it coming out of China it could get bad if it spead more easy H2H...basic it will be worse then the Spanish flu killing over 400 million to a half a billion worldwide, if it goes pandemic

SARS as of 2013 was a #4 but mutating more and more and recently looking like #5, The mortality rate of SARS as of 2003 was 9% to 12%. That said its more lethal than the spanish flu, and one mutation away from spreading just as quickly. Also with the disease being in the middle east and europe, it will spead worldwide easily. Remember that 350 million dead if the spanish flu hit today, the number could be anywhere from 200 million dead to matching the spanish flu if SARS goes epidemic.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by phil_in_cs » Thu May 16, 2013 8:27 pm

Chart on ebola deaths
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/mnpa ... atable.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ballpark adds up to about 1500 since 1976.... much of that due to a lack of knowledge about transmission. I'm with Jamie - something needs to kill more folks than hippos before I will take it seriously. Heck, 600 people a year die in America from autoerotic asphyxiation.
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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Horatio_Tyllis » Thu May 16, 2013 11:38 pm

The World Health Organization (WHO) has been informed of a global total of 38 laboratory confirmed cases of human infection with novel coronavirus, including 20 deaths, from September 2012 to date, the UN health agency said Tuesday. WHO said in its latest update that the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia has informed WHO of an additional four laboratory-confirmed cases with infection of the novel coronavirus and one of them died. Since the beginning of May to date, a total of 19 patients, including nine deaths have been reported from the outbreak primarily linked to a health care facility in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia, according to the WHO. The Saudi Arabian government is conducting ongoing investigation into the outbreak, it said. Based on the current situation and available information, WHO encouraged all member states to continue their surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and to carefully review any unusual patterns. Health care providers were advised to be vigilant among recent travellers returning from areas affected by the virus who developed severe SARI. It said that the WHO did not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event nor did it currently recommend the application of any travel or trade restrictions.
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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by greenbeetle » Mon May 20, 2013 2:40 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:Chart on ebola deaths
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/mnpa ... atable.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ballpark adds up to about 1500 since 1976.... much of that due to a lack of knowledge about transmission. I'm with Jamie - something needs to kill more folks than hippos before I will take it seriously. Heck, 600 people a year die in America from autoerotic asphyxiation.

The 2 major flu pandemics in the 20th century killed 650,000 and 70,000 people in the United States alone, respectively. Viruses can mutate frequently. Minor changes in a few proteins could mean rapid human to human transmission.

So a novel and deadly virus that is capable of infecting and killing humans could easily become the next pandemic. In fact, given enough time it is nearly inevitable. That is why it is newsworthy, especially when it kills at such high rates.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by FlashDaddy » Tue May 28, 2013 5:55 pm

Im startin' a new thread on that there autoerotic asphyxiation near pandemic...

On a serious note, I keep an eye on things to see where they're headed. I pray there won't be another pandemic for another hundred years. I'm prepping like there will.
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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Dietrich » Tue May 28, 2013 6:30 pm

Is this the same pathogen?
http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/28/health/fr ... ?hpt=hp_t1

If so, it has a shiny new name (Middle East respiratory symptom coronavirus, or MERS-CoV) and CNN is calling it a "threat to the entire world."
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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Se7en707 » Tue May 28, 2013 7:23 pm

Just saw the same thing on CNN i think its the same topic

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Rin » Tue May 28, 2013 10:39 pm

According to what I've been seeing, yeah it's the same thing. Looks like the World Health Organization adopted the changed name about a week or so ago to make discussions of the disease easier.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Mikeyboy » Tue May 28, 2013 10:50 pm

Dietrich wrote:Is this the same pathogen?
http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/28/health/fr ... ?hpt=hp_t1

If so, it has a shiny new name (Middle East respiratory symptom coronavirus, or MERS-CoV) and CNN is calling it a "threat to the entire world."
If it makes the jump to efficient H2H transmission, then yea its would be a threat to the entire world. It would spread worldwide within a week or two, City Morgues would run out of places to put the bodies and utilities and other civil services would grind to a halt, worse than they did in 1918. Its got an approx 50% mortality rate right now, and the Saudis just got 5 more cases.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/conten ... orona.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So far there is H2H transmission of MERS-cov, but its real clunky. There needs to be close substained physical contact for it to jump for person to person.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by Jamie » Wed May 29, 2013 6:37 am

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Yes, if everything evolves just right/wrong, bad stuff could happen...but that's, of course, true with lots of bugs...the overwhelming majority of which never develop into world-killers.

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Re: Sars like coronavirus

Post by steelclaw » Wed May 29, 2013 11:19 am

http://www.weather.com/health/new-coron ... e-20130529" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Another article regarding the virus, courtesy of weather.com
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