Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

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Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by CaptBrainFreeze » Sun Jan 10, 2010 11:48 am

The economy as well, that place is a wreck. But a scenerio to watch as when one thinks "it can't happen here" but are surprised to find that it did.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/lt_venezuela_electricity" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by drunkensurvivor » Sun Jan 10, 2010 2:59 pm

The entire South American country of 28 million people depends to a large degree on the massive Guri Dam, which holds back the Caroni River in southeastern Bolivar state. It supplies 73 percent of the country's electricity by feeding the massive Guri hydroelectric plant — the world's third-largest in power output — along with two other smaller plants.
Wow. That sounds like a huge terrorist target to me and a great general liability. Add it to the 101 reasons to not live in Venezuela list.

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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by phil_in_cs » Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:01 pm

Their internal situation concerns me, as their current leadership is somewhat likely to act out against a neighbor to distract the citizens of the cause of the problems.
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by andygates » Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:05 pm

drunkensurvivor wrote:Wow. That sounds like a huge terrorist target to me and a great general liability. Add it to the 101 reasons to not live in Venezuela list.
It's a huge target all right. Huge. Dams like that are a whole lot of dirt and concrete, and they're dam' hard to dam-age.
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by drunkensurvivor » Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:56 pm

andygates wrote:
drunkensurvivor wrote:Wow. That sounds like a huge terrorist target to me and a great general liability. Add it to the 101 reasons to not live in Venezuela list.
It's a huge target all right. Huge. Dams like that are a whole lot of dirt and concrete, and they're dam' hard to dam-age.
I suppose. Still a huge liability in military conflicts. I could imagine Columbia getting some bunker busters or something similar as foreign aid from us.

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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by TC » Sun Jan 10, 2010 4:20 pm

There's also this:
Reuters wrote: Nervous Venezuelans buy TVs after devaluation

CARACAS (Reuters) - Shouting "buy, buy, the world is going to die," Venezuelans went on a frantic shopping spree on Saturday following a sharp currency devaluation that is expected to drive up prices.

President Hugo Chavez announced a dual system for the fixed rate bolivar Friday night while much of the country was watching a baseball game.

But Saturday, word spread quickly as people read the morning papers and listened to the radio in Caracas cafes.

Shoppers crammed into electronics stores, eager to snap up imported televisions and computers ahead of the anticipated price hikes.

"I've been lining up for two hours outside to buy a television and two speakers because by Monday everything is bound to be double the current price," said Miguel Gonzalez, a 56-year-old engineer standing in the tropical sun outside a popular store.

Opposition politicians seized the opportunity to criticise Chavez's economic management, with Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma saying standards of living would drop.

"If you need to buy a refrigerator for your house tomorrow, it's going to cost you twice as much as it did up till Friday, Ledezma said.

The government acknowledges prices will rise after the devaluation, but say the upward trend will be more gradual.

State run television and radio stations avoided using the word "devaluation," preferring the word "adjustment." One pro-Chavez radio station responded to critics of the measure by playing a popular Argentine song called "Imbecile."

With oil crowding out other sectors of the economy, Venezuela heavily relies on imports for consumer goods, leaving it subject to big price swings depending on the exchange rate.

Older Venezuelans are accustomed to sharp losses in the value of their money, with numerous devaluations and currency regimes over the last three decades of economic turmoil.

Inflation, the highest in the Americas, at 25 percent last year, reached 103 percent in 1996 after a previous president lifted exchange and price controls.

Chavez's high-spending policies during an oil bonanza fuelled a massive consumer boom and fast growth that shuddered to a halt when oil prices plunged a year ago.

The sharp drop in oil revenues also undermined the bolivar and made a devaluation inevitable at some point.

Not a good time to be in Venezuela...
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by mantis » Sun Jan 10, 2010 5:52 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:Their internal situation concerns me, as their current leadership is somewhat likely to act out against a neighbor to distract the citizens of the cause of the problems.
It's funny that you mention that. I had precisely the same thought when I first heard about this. They've been tyring to provoke Colombia for a while now and this could well be the motivation to finally pull the trigger.
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by Midian » Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:19 pm

Ol Crazy Chavez

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... tr11jqdrdM
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that businesses have no reason to raise prices following the devaluation of the bolivar and that the government will seize any entity that boosts its prices.

“The bourgeois are already talking about how all prices are going to double and they’re closing their businesses to raise prices,” Chavez said in comments on state television during his weekly “Alo Presidente” program. “People, don’t let them rob you, denounce it, and I’m capable of taking over that business.”
So yesterday the value of X was 100 Bolivar and then today 1 Bolivar is 0.5 Bolivar. Now the Value of X should be 200 Bolivar but Chavez said it should be 50 Bolivar or I take your business.

Does this now also mean that Mr. Jose had a bank account with 1000 Bolivar balance but now the bank says due to the adjusting of the value you only have 500 or is it now 2000 Bolivar.

Sounds like Chavez is breaking the First rule "Don't get high on your own supply"

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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by dukman » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:14 pm

Reuters wrote: Shoppers crammed into electronics stores, eager to snap up imported televisions and computers ahead of the anticipated price hikes.

"I've been lining up for two hours outside to buy a television and two speakers because by Monday everything is bound to be double the current price," said Miguel Gonzalez, a 56-year-old engineer standing in the tropical sun outside a popular store.
I hope my fellow ZS'ers would spend their money wiser than blowing it on a TV and other electronics :roll:
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by phil_in_cs » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:26 pm

dukman wrote:I hope my fellow ZS'ers would spend their money wiser than blowing it on a TV and other electronics :roll:
Hopefully, but remember in this sort of fiasco imported goods, which are originally priced in other currencies, are were the instant inflation is felt. Your disaster french toast components of milk, bread, and eggs, are produced locally and so the impact of prices on those won't be as immediate.

If the TV shop orders from a warehouse in Jamaica or Mexico, the ones they order this week will cost them twice as much in local currency as they did last week.
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by JTNieman » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:28 pm

dukman wrote: I hope my fellow ZS'ers would spend their money wiser than blowing it on a TV and other electronics :roll:
So judgmental, sheesh :P

You saying 100% of your budget goes to preps?

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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by WhoShotJR » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:39 pm

Midian wrote:Ol Crazy Chavez

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... tr11jqdrdM
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said that businesses have no reason to raise prices following the devaluation of the bolivar and that the government will seize any entity that boosts its prices.

“The bourgeois are already talking about how all prices are going to double and they’re closing their businesses to raise prices,” Chavez said in comments on state television during his weekly “Alo Presidente” program. “People, don’t let them rob you, denounce it, and I’m capable of taking over that business.”

ANY imported goods will double in wholesale cost, obviously. A business selling imported goods (and Ven imports a large portion of theirs) has to either raise prices or go out of business. Most businesses do not have a 100%+ markup on goods. The only logical step I see here is Chavez wants to take over control of an even greater part of the economy by taking over these businesses.

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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by Fire » Tue Jan 12, 2010 12:52 am

anyone got further info on this- I tend to agree that the whole, dont raise prices or I take your stuff attitude is either indicative of a desire to seize a lot of businesses, or serious and possibly rebellion inducing stupidity.....
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by phil_in_cs » Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:06 am

However stupid it may be, he wasn't bluffing about seizing shops:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8453570.stm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by Lynxian » Tue Jan 12, 2010 6:45 pm

mantis wrote:
phil_in_cs wrote:Their internal situation concerns me, as their current leadership is somewhat likely to act out against a neighbor to distract the citizens of the cause of the problems.
It's funny that you mention that. I had precisely the same thought when I first heard about this. They've been tyring to provoke Colombia for a while now and this could well be the motivation to finally pull the trigger.
He's done this before. Besides calling America the evil Satan, he also likes to shout at the Dutch for allowing the Netherlands Antilles (only about 40 miles off the Venezuelan coast) to operate as a Forward Operating Location for the US. Said he'd step in on the islands if we ever left, that sort of war rhetoric. Recently, he called the American and Dutch ambassadors to explain why American planes, taking off from Curaçou, violated Venezuelan airspace. It's interesting to see where this is going to go, since Chavez might be dumb enough to pull off a Falklands type of scenario here.

So yeah, any news regarding contingencies or internal unrest in Venezuela is worth keeping an eye out for.
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Tue Jan 19, 2010 10:35 pm

I am living in Venezuela. No it is not a good time to be here. I really feel bad for the Venezuelans who have to depend on the local currency.

Drought is really knocking energy production in Guri, but Chavez, as well as the previous governments have not invested much in infrastructure. For example Venezuela's second largest hydroelectric dam generates 15 megawatts but the transmission lines can only handle 10 megawatts, so 33.3% of the power this dam generates goes nowhere and does nothing.
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by Lynxian » Wed Jan 20, 2010 12:22 pm

Evan the Diplomat wrote:I am living in Venezuela. No it is not a good time to be here. I really feel bad for the Venezuelans who have to depend on the local currency.

Drought is really knocking energy production in Guri, but Chavez, as well as the previous governments have not invested much in infrastructure. For example Venezuela's second largest hydroelectric dam generates 15 megawatts but the transmission lines can only handle 10 megawatts, so 33.3% of the power this dam generates goes nowhere and does nothing.
Yeah, I already read that elsewhere. (Either on Dutch news or CNN.) Isn't it also true that that Guri dam is responsible for 75% of all power production in Venezuela? If so, I really hope for the people of Venezuela that Chavez has - failing to invest in infrastructure - at least had the sense to install some SAM sites around that thing. Otherwise one jet or one cruise missile will end any conflict Venezuela might even get into.

Still, I think Chavez will do something to divert attention from the internal troubles. Any signs that he might be planning on something soon, Evan?
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Wed Jan 20, 2010 11:01 pm

Sure, I don't think he will start any war. It is generally believed that Chavez's followers will kill for him, but are not wiling to die for him.

Yesterday, several official Venezuelan websites claimed that the U.S. government caused the earthquake in Haiti with our plasma-pulse-sonic shockwave bombs. Seriously, here is the link - http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/yvke/noticia.php?41129" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If Venezuela does not start getting serious rain, Guri will start shutting down turbines in March. By May there will be a power collapse. However, the Almighty has a sense of humor so there will some rain, just enough to keep the lights on.
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by phil_in_cs » Thu Jan 21, 2010 8:21 am

Evan the Diplomat wrote:Yesterday, several official Venezuelan websites claimed that the U.S. government caused the earthquake in Haiti with our plasma-pulse-sonic shockwave bombs. Seriously, here is the link - http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/yvke/noticia.php?41129" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
If we had an earthquake bomb, how can the Taliban be hiding in caves? Jeez.... :roll: A Haiti sized quake in the right part of Afghanistan and the war's over.
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by flyingredgoat » Thu Jan 21, 2010 8:28 am

Evan the Diplomat wrote: Yesterday, several official Venezuelan websites claimed that the U.S. government caused the earthquake in Haiti with our plasma-pulse-sonic shockwave bombs. Seriously, here is the link - http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/yvke/noticia.php?41129" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I think ZS should run a charity drive to send foil hats to Chavez. Guaranteed to stop American mind control waves. :lol:

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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by mantis » Thu Jan 21, 2010 12:47 pm

flyingredgoat wrote:
Evan the Diplomat wrote: Yesterday, several official Venezuelan websites claimed that the U.S. government caused the earthquake in Haiti with our plasma-pulse-sonic shockwave bombs. Seriously, here is the link - http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/yvke/noticia.php?41129" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I think ZS should run a charity drive to send foil hats to Chavez. Guaranteed to stop American mind control waves. :lol:

k
His latest rant is repeated claims that the United States and it's allies such as Canada who are sending toops to Haiti to aid in rescue and cleanup are actually invading the country!
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by Lynxian » Thu Jan 21, 2010 6:24 pm

mantis wrote:
flyingredgoat wrote:
Evan the Diplomat wrote: Yesterday, several official Venezuelan websites claimed that the U.S. government caused the earthquake in Haiti with our plasma-pulse-sonic shockwave bombs. Seriously, here is the link - http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/yvke/noticia.php?41129" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I think ZS should run a charity drive to send foil hats to Chavez. Guaranteed to stop American mind control waves. :lol:

k
His latest rant is repeated claims that the United States and it's allies such as Canada who are sending toops to Haiti to aid in rescue and cleanup are actually invading the country!
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Yes, somehow I think it would've been a more successful invasion if the key infrastructure had been left intact. Somehow that seems strategically more viable. But what do I know?

More seriously; good to know that you reckon Chavez won't do anything. It's good to hear an opinion from somebody who actually lives there. ;) (I only get the news which, well, isn't the most objective program anywhere, despite its claims...)
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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by spacetyrant » Thu Jan 28, 2010 3:01 pm

Looks like Chavez is done paying lip-service to Venezuela being a democracy.

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.c ... d=15393502" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: Venezuela faces risk of devastating power collapse

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Fri Mar 05, 2010 5:28 pm

Current estimates figure that the lights will go out in Jan/Feb of 2011 if the rains don't come. I'll be outta here by then. Meanwhile watch this space for future updates.

Oh by the way, Venezuela's ridiculous ban on the sale of "violent or war-like" video games has come into effect. for those of you who comprende español follow this link.
http://www.vtv.gob.ve/noticias-ciencia-y-salud/31123" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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