Mexico becoming a failed state?

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Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by phil_in_cs » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:48 pm

Plane crash kills top crime fighting officals
the week after the Chief of the Federal Police resigns

Journalists Targeted in Drug Violence
The Geopolitics of Dope
On the Road to a Failed State

Not to detract from the New Cold War topics, but this is a hell of a lot closer to me. There have been over 1100 drug related murders in Juarez year to date, and the violence and corruption is spilling across the border from Brownsville to San Diego.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by dogbane » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:54 pm

I just heard about the plane crash a little while ago. The article calls Juan Camilo Mouriño the Interior Minister, because his title more or less translates that way, but he is more like Britain's Home Secretary. The role is the Number 2 in government, like the Vice President, but also with Homeland Security and Intelligence powers.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by raptor » Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:18 pm

phil_in_cs wrote:Plane crash kills top crime fighting officals
the week after the Chief of the Federal Police resigns

Journalists Targeted in Drug Violence
The Geopolitics of Dope
On the Road to a Failed State

Not to detract from the New Cold War topics, but this is a hell of a lot closer to me. There have been over 1100 drug related murders in Juarez year to date, and the violence and corruption is spilling across the border from Brownsville to San Diego.
I am not sure they are a failed state but the drug violence is sure escalating and posing a credible threat to both the Mexican central government and Mexico's neighbors. This violence is certainly a problem that US border states must now deal with.

These naro terrorists could grow to pose a credible threat to the stability of the Mexican Central Government. Indeed if they arranged for this plane crash this could be the start of a coup.

I agree mexico does not have nuclear weapons but a revolution in Mexico would be very unpleasant for all NAFTA memebers.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Kathy in FL » Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:20 pm

We heard about it here in Tampa because of our large Mexican population and because the guy was apparently a graduate of the University of Tampa.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by muscleman_coffeemesto » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:25 pm

Pot Heads would say legalize weed and this will all go away. Although I'm all for that, these guys are trafficing way more than just weed into the US. I'll pass on visiting TJ any time soon.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Y.T. » Thu Nov 06, 2008 4:30 pm

We've been keeping an eye on this, particularly the drug war going on, because we're only about an hour or so from the border. At this point I'm most concerned about it spilling onto the US side due to AZ residents of Mexican descent (legal or illegal) traveling back and forth.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by sgx_d » Fri Nov 07, 2008 4:52 am

We do live in interesting times. Make your preperations, make a plan, move one step at a time. But above all be true to your ideals. Follow those rules and you will forever be difficult to defeat.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by StrangeLove » Fri Nov 07, 2008 7:26 am

Something to keep in mind is these guys will smuggle anything for a buck and they're obviously good at getting things across the border undetected. My concern is smuggled sleeper cells with really bad shit - NBC type stuff.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by phil_in_cs » Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:50 am

Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency

and creeping north: Body armor and AK47 in Austin

The cop did well; a triumph of training over hardware. Luckily it was the good guy with the training this time.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by phil_in_cs » Fri Nov 07, 2008 8:55 am

and a much longer backgrounder on the criminal insurgency: http://smallwarsjournal.com/mag/docs-te ... llivan.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Moana Drifter » Fri Nov 07, 2008 12:26 pm

I wouldn't necessarily view the violence as evidence of a failed state. Mexico has been seriously corrupt for a long time. A lot of the violence in the last couple of years is the result of Calderon's government actually trying to do something about it and the cartels pushing back.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Cymro » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:08 am

I doubt Mexico will fail, per se. There's some good economic signs under all that, and the oil industry's proven to be a very savvy player in the global market.

Those of us who study Mexico for a living talk about the Colombianization/Cartelification of Mexico, and crime and corruption are huge, growing concerns along the border. I don't see things improving any time soon.

It bears watching.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by phil_in_cs » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:14 am

I'm using the 'Failed State' idea is a Nation State that can not control what happens within its borders. The petro industry could run very well in such a situation, as they can afford their own security agreements.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by jmcanon92 » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:28 am

Well, law enforcement down there has been getting more and more corrupt. My grandparents who live down there say that all the local cops are corrupt, the honest ones dead or retired, and that nowadays, only with the federales do you have a chance of getting a honest officer.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Trent » Mon Nov 10, 2008 3:06 pm

Uh...becoming?

I have a friend that has many relatives in central Mexico (he's near pure blood Aztec) and the stories he tells about their government and the drug wars are disturbing, especially when you think of how everything is spilling over into the US.
For example, one of his friends has seen Mexican soldiers crossing the US border in uniform.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by streetpig1690 » Tue Nov 11, 2008 1:23 am

Expect it to get worse as Obama's rule begins. Just recently in Arizona a Hispanic lawyer group got the AZ Supreme Court to agree that the use of illegal immigrant, illegal alien, ect can no longer be used in the court of law in the state. The courts and soon the Federal government will allow more and more illegals in whichof course will allow Mexican thugs in. And let us not forget all the illegal aliens that were allowed to protest around the country in the tens of thousands for their "Constitutional Rights"
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Y.T. » Tue Nov 11, 2008 1:28 am

streetpig1690 wrote:Just recently in Arizona a Hispanic lawyer group got the AZ Supreme Court to agree that the use of illegal immigrant, illegal alien, ect can no longer be used in the court of law in the state.
Dude, that sentence made absolutely no sense. ;) Can you like, reword it or provide a link to the article or something?
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by dogbane » Tue Nov 11, 2008 12:41 pm

My mother, who lived in Mexico for over three decades, says that the quality of the Mexican narcotrafficker is declining. IN the old days, they were sort of respectable, maintaining legitimate business fronts and actually doing a little something for the poor. Now they are completely ruthless, with no pretense of legitimacy, and indiscriminate in their violence.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Cymro » Tue Nov 11, 2008 1:16 pm

dogbane wrote:My mother, who lived in Mexico for over three decades, says that the quality of the Mexican narcotrafficker is declining. IN the old days, they were sort of respectable, maintaining legitimate business fronts and actually doing a little something for the poor. Now they are completely ruthless, with no pretense of legitimacy, and indiscriminate in their violence.
And that transition is part of what we mean when we talk about "Colombianization" or "Cartelification".

We're also concerned about government and military involvement in the drug trade. State support, however illegitimate, is the only thing that could make this scarier.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Chef » Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:09 pm

We're also concerned about government and military involvement in the drug trade.
We certainly should be, after the whole Iran-Contra affair.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Moana Drifter » Sun Nov 16, 2008 3:30 pm

dogbane wrote:My mother, who lived in Mexico for over three decades, says that the quality of the Mexican narcotrafficker is declining. IN the old days, they were sort of respectable, maintaining legitimate business fronts and actually doing a little something for the poor. Now they are completely ruthless, with no pretense of legitimacy, and indiscriminate in their violence.
They say the same thing about the illegals. In a thread about illegal aliens on a hunting board I read, one of the older guys said that back in the old days, they used to leave a bag of canned food and an axe outside of their South Texas deer camp. Any illegals that came by would take only what they needed of the food, and chop wood to "pay" for it. Now they have to leave the door unlocked with a pile of cans and bottled water on the table. If they don't, then they break into the place anyway and are pissed that you didn't leave it open for them, so the trash the place.
Perhaps we'll meet again on some sin-infested street corner in Houston, Texas.

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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by phil_in_cs » Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:32 am

The link is here: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/world ... ref=slogin" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
For Mexico’s Wealthy, Expenses Include Guards

José, a business magnate in his 30s who said he was afraid to have his full name published, makes sure his two children get the same protection. Bodyguards pick them up from school and escort them even to friends’ birthday parties — where the bodyguards meet other bodyguards, because many of the children’s classmates have similar protection.

With drug-related violence spinning out of control and kidnappings a proven money-maker for criminal gangs, members of Mexico’s upper class find themselves juggling the spoils of their status with the fear of being killed.
...
Wealthy Mexicans have long hired bodyguards, but experts say the numbers of those seeking protection have jumped since President Felipe Calderón challenged the drug cartels, bringing unprecedented levels of related violence — which had been mainly confined to the areas bordering the United States — into the major cities.

High-profile and sometimes gruesome crimes have stoked people’s fears.

In one of the worst cases, a 5-year-old boy from a poor family was plucked from a gritty market this month and killed by kidnappers, who injected acid into his heart.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by arrowolf » Mon Nov 24, 2008 5:05 pm

Trent wrote:Uh...becoming?
Exactly right...

Mexico has pretty much always been a failed state and corruption incarnate since the landing of Cortez.
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Re: Mexico becoming a failed state?

Post by Cybrludite » Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:44 pm

muscleman_coffeemesto wrote:Pot Heads would say legalize weed and this will all go away. Although I'm all for that, these guys are trafficing way more than just weed into the US. I'll pass on visiting TJ any time soon.
TJ's actually safer than my hometown of New Orleans. (Of course, I can't bring my .45 with me to TJ...)
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