Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

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Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by Cymro » Tue Sep 23, 2008 7:51 am

And you can read about it here:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept08/crash9-08.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Thoughs, discussion, refutation?
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by phil_in_cs » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:34 am

He starts off:
If you believe the pundits and mainstream financial press, the Big Fat Giant Bailout has fixed everything and a Bull Market is now running.
Actually, the main media is reporting major doubts about it....

October is always a bad month, and raptor commented that when many 401(k) holders see their end of 3rd Quarter statements (quarter ending 9/30, statements in October....) that many might panic and pull out.

What is this guy's track record? Has he been accurate in his predictions over the last 2 years? 5 years?
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by Gerry.Agnosia » Tue Sep 23, 2008 12:19 pm

Hey Phil,

Charles Hugh Smith has shown himself to be a surprisingly lucid and informed pundit on macro-economic matters...

I.E. - He knows his shit.

I hope to everything precious in my life that he is wrong, but he's been right in recent months...

And every other survival-pundit from James Wesley Rawles to Chris Martenson has been "Ringing the Klaxons" since the beginning of last week.

But all I can personally say with certainty is this: Hard times are coming... And they seem to be coming faster and faster.
- Gerry

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by MosinMe » Tue Sep 23, 2008 12:25 pm

It's not a bail out.

It's a Buy Out.

Time to buy more MREs.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by phil_in_cs » Tue Sep 23, 2008 12:33 pm

As I've mentioned, Rawles and Martensen sell fear. That's not to say they aren't right, but they have a vested interest in scaring you into buying stuff from them and their sponsors.

So is Smith now a millionaire? Anyone that foresaw what has happened in the last 6 months and sold short at the right time ought to be rolling in cash.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 23, 2008 1:04 pm

This date Oct 7, 2008 comes from a Web bit search prediction engine. This is also the date that bank short selling is permitted again. They may be right or they may be wrong they have a 50/50 shot in that it may happen or it may not happen.

However, while they draw nice charts, so can anybody.

Personally I see this as a stressful week since:
1.) September 30, 2008 quarterly 401(k) statements will have come out by then.
2.) Short selling ban will be over.
3.) Government plan will likely be in place and people will be disappointed with it in that it will not instantly solve all problems foreign and domestic.

It would not surprise me to see some wild swings that week, but not for the reason that are cited above.

Let also point out that we will continue to see wild swings and gyrations in the markets regardless of this chart and these "expert" predictions. This was predicted by everyone who reviews the markets in January 2008. The wild gyrations should not be surprise. The market liquidity issues started last August 2007. They will not, I repeat will not, be worked through the system for at least 1 or 2 years and cleaning up this mess will take about a decade.

Having said this, that does not mean all banks will close and 100% unemployment will occur on Oct 7, 2008 or at any time in the future. It also does not mean that 1929 will repeat itself even if we enter a depression. We will be in for a recession and certainly an inflationary period. Inflation is cruel tax on the public.
Last edited by raptor on Tue Sep 23, 2008 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by Gerry.Agnosia » Tue Sep 23, 2008 2:42 pm

raptor wrote:This date Oct 7, 2008 comes from a Web bit search prediction engine. This is also the date that bank short selling is permitted again. They may be right or they may be wrong they have a 50/50 shot in that it may happen or it may not happen.

However, while they draw nice charts, so can anybody.

Personally I see this as a stressful week since:
1.) September 30, 2008 quarterly 401(k) statements will have come out by then.
2.) Short selling ban will be in over.
3.) Government plan will likely be in place and people will be disappointed with it in that it will not instantly solve all problems foreign and domestic.

It would not surprise me to see some wild swings that week, but not for the reason that are cited above.

Let also point out that we will continue to see wild swings and gyrations in the markets regardless of this chart and these "expert" predictions. This was predicted by everyone who reviews the markets in January 2008. The wild gyrations should not be surprise. The market liquidity issues started last August 2007. They will not I repeat will not be worked through the system for at least 1 or 2 years and cleaning up this mess will take about a decade.

Having said this, that does not mean all banks will close and 100% unemployment will occur on Oct 7, 2008 or at any time in the future. It also does not mean that 1929 will repeat itself even if we enter a depression.
Hey Raptor,

First off I want to thank you: You've been one of the few "nay-sayers of the doom-sayers" in past weeks. While everyone else from every survival blog has been peddling apocalypse, you've been giving facts and logical conclusions. I salute you, sir. :mrgreen:

Now, I was wondering if anyone would be able to address certain concerns as to why a new Depression might not go as smoothly as the last, namely:

* Not as much domestically produced food and farms in general.

* Greater population density.

* More socially and economically polarized populace.

* More volatile inner cities.

Etc.

Thank you.
- Gerry

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by mrdbeau » Tue Sep 23, 2008 3:29 pm

Gerry.Agnosia wrote:Now, I was wondering if anyone would be able to address certain concerns as to why a new Depression might not go as smoothly as the last, namely:

* Not as much domestically produced food and farms in general.

* Greater population density.

* More socially and economically polarized populace.

* More volatile inner cities.

Etc.

Thank you.
We actually produce much more food than we used to... more than enough to feed our entire population and most of the rest of the world. The issue is that in the '20s and '30s, almost everyone had some kind of garden or farm plot, even if it was just a few acres. Currently, everyone relies on giant agricorps to produce and distribute foods and ultimately feed the country.

Population density is a minor factor, IMO. Additionally, most of the polarization of the populace is on a regional basis; south, midwest, northeast, west coast, etc. in terms of politics and philosophy. And, given the current chaos of most inner-city regions (D.C., Detroit, New Orleans, et. al.), things can't get too much worse in some of those places.

In general, another depression is unlikely to occur in the same way as the Great Depression due to the size of the economy, the nature of our global economy, and a much higher percentage of workers in this country that work for the government. I do not think we are going to be in for any serious national economic crisis for awhile, but if the debt in this country outpaces growth of the national GDP (on a percentage basis), then we could be in real trouble. And when the multi-multi-trillion dollar bailout for Social Security is necessary in thirty years, well....

Just the way I see things at the moment.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 23, 2008 3:35 pm

mrdbeau wrote:
Gerry.Agnosia wrote:Now, I was wondering if anyone would be able to address certain concerns as to why a new Depression might not go as smoothly as the last, namely:

* Not as much domestically produced food and farms in general.

* Greater population density.

* More socially and economically polarized populace.

* More volatile inner cities.

Etc.

Thank you.
We actually produce much more food than we used to... more than enough to feed our entire population and most of the rest of the world. The issue is that in the '20s and '30s, almost everyone had some kind of garden or farm plot, even if it was just a few acres. Currently, everyone relies on giant agricorps to produce and distribute foods and ultimately feed the country.

Population density is a minor factor, IMO. Additionally, most of the polarization of the populace is on a regional basis; south, midwest, northeast, west coast, etc. in terms of politics and philosophy. And, given the current chaos of most inner-city regions (D.C., Detroit, New Orleans, et. al.), things can't get too much worse in some of those places.

In general, another depression is unlikely to occur in the same way as the Great Depression due to the size of the economy, the nature of our global economy, and a much higher percentage of workers in this country that work for the government. I do not think we are going to be in for any serious national economic crisis for awhile, but if the debt in this country outpaces growth of the national GDP (on a percentage basis), then we could be in real trouble. And when the multi-multi-trillion dollar bailout for Social Security is necessary in thirty years, well....

Just the way I see things at the moment.
+1 excellent points. A recession yes, some more panic selling of stocks, yes probably, more wild up and down days, yes without a doubt.

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by crypto » Tue Sep 23, 2008 3:54 pm

Collapse of western civilization?

Hell. Fucking. No.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:18 pm

crypto wrote:Collapse of western civilization?

Hell. Fucking. No.
Exactly.

The week of October 7, 2008 I predict the sun will rise and will set normally. I predict that the winds will still blow and the the stars will still twinkle. I predict that Americans will continue to shower and shave (for the most part) use shampoo, soap, deodorant and similar products. They will likely consume a soft drink or 2 and maybe have an alcoholic beverage or 2. They will use their car and go to work and get stuck in traffic.

There now if this prediction comes true everyone in the US must send the LA SPCA one dollar! :D

This prediction by the way was shown to me in my dreams and confirmed by web bots searching the internet. :lol:

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by crypto » Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:36 pm

My completely lay advice would be to:

Move risky investments into more conservative things like government bonds
Pay down debt a little faster
Live within your means and dont rack up more unnecessary debt

I think double payment on your mortgage or credit card would be more productive than cases of MREs.
And I wouldnt run out buying bullion or Liberty Dollars.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by TheLastRifleMan » Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:54 pm

Crypto and Raptor, the voices of reason.

Good advice there, gentleman.

The stock market has gone south a couple of times in recent years. Not as bad as what is happening now, but bad enough that we are feeling the repercussions still.

Is it time to panic? No, only if I had every cent I owned invested in some of the companies that are going down.

I agree with Raptor. the market will fluctuate wildly for a short time them stabilize itself. A complete crash, like the one in 1929, is a near impossibility. It can happen, but after the Great Depression, certain safeguards were put into place to prevent it from happening again.

I am not saying it CANNOT happen, but chances are slim.

I, for one, have started to change my spending habits, almost exactly along the lines Crypto has stated. Never a bad thing to save a little $ for who-knows-what.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by cougar » Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:15 pm

I really dont think we are going to see a "crash". We are almost certain to see wild ups and downs, to the point people keep predicting a crash. Kinda a vicious circle.
We gotta get the real estate market settled down before everything else follows suit. Whether or not that is with a big fat check from the federalies, I dont know. What I do know is the banks MUST stop these stupid ass loans to people who cant afford them. If that means telling someone "Hey you cant have your piece of the American homeowners dream" then so be it. If they cant do it I volanteer myself to be the bearer of bad news. And if a particuliar branch of the Federal system says "You cant tell them that, they deserve a house too" they need to be told to pound sand as well.
Not everyone can afford a house. Thats just the way it is.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by ironraven » Tue Sep 23, 2008 7:56 pm

Do I think we might see a crash due to failure of confidence? Sure. And the more people keep spouting things like that, the more likely it is to spread panic. Anyone who puts a date on doom is pouring gas on the fire.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by naegling62 » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:19 pm

DOOM....DOOM...DOOM!!! I thought that wasn't until 2012? Myans must not have known about AIG and the lot. :mrgreen:
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by TheFreakinBear » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:25 pm

Ok, someone needs to look at this. I don't know if there needs to be an editing or what but here is the wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by Kathy in FL » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:46 pm

I think that certain sectors of the financial population are going to experience a giant dose of reality and a lot of hard times. But, that was going to be coming to them anyway because the life of spending more than you make cannot be indefinitely maintained. Eventually all those bills come home to roost. And those consequences were inevitable once they changed the bankruptcy laws preventing people from just running up the bills and then running away from them when the debts began to come due. This is going to hit the new middle class disproportionally high in my opinion.

The net income lower middle class will continue to struggle and the net income upper middle class will have to cut back, but using common sense they'll be able to weather it as long as they are willing to modify their lifestyle. There will be some of the "new rich" that will lose their shirts because they exposed their wealth to too much risk.

People shouldn't expect the financial entitlements that have been available in the past to help people get back on their feet. There won't be enough to go around. Those already on the roles will probably be able to stay there but I don't think there are going to be any extra dollars to expand the roles.

In other words I foresee something similar to what happened in the 70's ... perhaps a little worse. But, the difference is that fewer people are prepared to endure those conditions and it will make it feel worse. Perceptions.

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by Ellie With An Axe » Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:16 pm

Well, as for the bailout, it's a bit like spitting into a forest fire at this point. IMO.

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by Midian » Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:38 pm

meh, Reason and Logic are so over rated that it is hard to think about it.

The effect of change is more change. The market goes up, the market goes down. How long has the market been going up without a major correction.

maybe it is only time to have the correction down to make it change back up again.

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by timesense » Wed Sep 24, 2008 4:59 pm

FYI: Active Army unit to be stationed within US for first time, beginning October 1st:
http://www.metafilter.com/75116/Active- ... -within-US" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Related?

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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by Cybrludite » Wed Sep 24, 2008 6:38 pm

timesense wrote:FYI: Active Army unit to be stationed within US for first time, beginning October 1st:
http://www.metafilter.com/75116/Active- ... -within-US" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Related?
Unless someone's repealed the posse commitatus act while I wasn't looking, no. And for that matter, I'm pretty sure that the 82nd Airborne, 101st Air Mobile, 1st Cavalry, & 10th Mountain Divisions (As well as the 1st & 2nd Marine Divisions) are all active duty units, despite being normally stationed here in the CONUS.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by ironraven » Wed Sep 24, 2008 7:11 pm

Uhmmm....

Sources. Actual, documentation, not whispers and hersay. This organization is pretty much a provactour outfit- I'd take them as seriously as I do the Onion.
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Re: Impending Market Crash: October 7, 2008?

Post by JibbaJabba » Wed Sep 24, 2008 7:13 pm

Random people talking on Youtube do not a valid source make.
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