COVID-19 Chat Thread

This isn't going away anytime soon folks and it just made sense to consolidate all the COVID-19 stuff in one location.

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RoneKiln
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by RoneKiln » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:55 pm

TacAir wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:32 pm
Also -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Joe is a bit out there (think Atr Bell) but the guest is legit.
Michael Osterholm - the guest on this podcast - is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.

His book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" predicted this (another coronavirus, like SARS and MERS) right down to the impact of supply chain medicine made in China.

Long but I found it interesting and oddly for Joe, informative.
Joe had a huge wake up call when there was so much backlash over his first interview with Jack Dorsey (CEO of twitter). Since then he's made some incredible improvements as an interviewer and takes his pod cast far more seriously. Some of the interviews he's done have literally changed my life for the better. You just have to wade through the fighters and comedians to find the scientists, authors, and various specialists that make a difference in the world.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:05 pm

You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:21 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:05 pm
Ah Karma, you lovely bitch.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/he-ha ... spartanntp
IMO, those markups went too far.

In related news, Daisy Luther started a special section. 2 articles by Selco, one on empty shelf pr0n.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:33 pm

Somebody's hoarding a lot of toilet paper.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgek ... our-emails

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by max v » Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:21 pm

RoneKiln wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:55 pm
TacAir wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:32 pm
Also -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Joe is a bit out there (think Atr Bell) but the guest is legit.
Michael Osterholm - the guest on this podcast - is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.

His book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" predicted this (another coronavirus, like SARS and MERS) right down to the impact of supply chain medicine made in China.

Long but I found it interesting and oddly for Joe, informative.
Joe had a huge wake up call when there was so much backlash over his first interview with Jack Dorsey (CEO of twitter). Since then he's made some incredible improvements as an interviewer and takes his pod cast far more seriously. Some of the interviews he's done have literally changed my life for the better. You just have to wade through the fighters and comedians to find the scientists, authors, and various specialists that make a difference in the world.
Amen to that. Even some of the fighters can provide solid information on nutrition, workout routines etc... And let's not forget uncle Joey for a good kick to the teeth.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by boskone » Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:29 pm

Ever wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:30 am
If you get a cough.... stay home.
It's allergy season. Pretty much everyone's coughing, no sane person is going to stay at home just because of that.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by boskone » Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:35 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:05 pm
Ah Karma, you lovely bitch.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/he-ha ... spartanntp
With that many he could have raised prices by a dollar, suffered probably no pushback, and still made a ton of money.

Realistically--since he cleared out dollar stores--he could have raised prices by a buck compared to Amazon's norm, and made even more of a mint without anyone even noticing.

Best thing he can do now is donate all that crap to church or something, and try to write off what he can as a charitable contribution.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by majorhavoc » Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:40 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:05 pm
Ah Karma, you lovely bitch.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/he-ha ... spartanntp
I generally detest the idea of eminent domain but if ever there were a worthy application of that legal doctrine ...

The appalling thing is he genuinely has no appreciation why what he was doing was reprehensible, or why anyone would have a problem with it:
It’s been a huge amount of whiplash,” he said. “From being in a situation where what I’ve got coming and going could potentially put my family in a really good place financially to ‘What the heck am I going to do with all of this?’

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:21 pm

The appalling thing is he genuinely has no appreciation why what he was doing was reprehensible, or why anyone would have a problem with it
I have to agree. Cornering the market on Air Jordans and making people pay through the nose to strut their stuff is one thing but potentially helping spread a disease by artificially inflating the prices of things needed to prevent the spread of disease, thereby denying people access to them is reprehensible.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:38 pm

Italian People come up with best response ever to virus and national lockdown.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ha ... spartanntp
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Ever » Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:01 pm

boskone wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:29 pm
Ever wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:30 am
If you get a cough.... stay home.
It's allergy season. Pretty much everyone's coughing, no sane person is going to stay at home just because of that.
Then we, who are about to die, salute you
Ever, previously known here as 'zombiepreparation'

Stay safe and well, y'all.
(and keep practicing physical distancing and wearing masks. if not for yourself do it for those of us around ya who desperately need ya to)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by sheddi » Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:40 pm

Hi folk, Sheddi here from the UK. I've been mostly away from ZS for, er, three years :? but thought I'd come back and see what's going on here with Covid-19.

It's great to see so many of the old gang still here! It's even lured Vicarious Lee back out of retirement, much like me :D

So, Ive skimmed the start of this thread and read every post in the last 15 pages. Here's a couple of things that don't seem to have come up (forgive me if they're posted elsewhere on the board).

This guy https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay is an actuary (one of the people who work for life insurance companies predicting death rates, so they don't lose money selling you insurance and annuities). He seems genuine, as much as you can tell on Twitter. He's been modelling the spread of Covid-19 in European populations (Italy, Spain, UK) and has the following current estimate of unmitigated infection probabilities for the UK:
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status ... 4261652480
Updated odds of catching COVID-19:

Mar 1-in-4600
Apr 1-in-140
May 1-in-5
Jun 1-in-2
Jul 1-in-12
Aug 1-in-150

Assumes continue current trajectory, without radical interventions.
That makes two important points, assuming "current trajectory, without radical interventions":
- Cases (and deaths) are going to grow exponentially until early summer, and by August essentially everyone who will catch it, will have done so.
- Some time in April, the health systems will be saturated (as they are now in Italy) and whether you live or die is likely to be down to your own immune system and circumstances, not medical intervention.

Also from him:
https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status ... 6821379072
Italy now appears to be publishing updated COVID-19 stats daily at this link:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... ca_eng.pdf

Some brief comments:

This level of transparency is very helpful.

The case fatality rate pattern by age is similar to China and others, older groups much more at risk.

It’s hopefully clear that it’s important to ignore the aggregate (average) fatality rate when assessing risk. The risk for someone in the 40s is a small fraction (1/30th) of the average. The risk for someone in their 80s is nearly triple the average.

It’s also important to ignore the aggregate rate when comparing countries. The aggregate rate is a function of the age distribution, as much as the rates by age. To compare countries we need tables like this for each.

It’s noticeable from comparing the above table to earlier data that the death rate is rising at older ages. This suggests Italian doctors, faced with overwhelming numbers, are having to make awful choices about who to treat. Age will be a relevant factor. I don’t envy them.

These rates are based on diagnosed cases, which are only a fraction of total cases. That means the real underlying death rates must only be a fraction of these official numbers, especially as it’s often milder cases that go unreported.
I'm struggling to embed the table, but the Italian stats currently show:
0% CFR for those aged under 30
0.2% for 30-50
0.8% for 50-60
2.7% for 60-70
10.8% for 70-80
17.5% for 80-90
21.1% for 90+

I'll post on the specifics of the UK separately, but it's late here now and that might have to wait for the morning (so 12h from the present).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by quazi » Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:57 pm

Thanks sheddi!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by max v » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:14 am

Took my dogs out for a walk this morning and literally came across one other guy. Quite sobering to see your own hometown go from business as usual to empty shelves to empty streets in less than 48 hours.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Lynxian » Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:16 am

Haven't been on here in a few years, but I figured I share my local experience:

Dutchman here, country's not in lockdown, but everyone's urged to work from home if they can, strongly urged to stay indoors when you have the least of symptoms. (Which includes cold symptoms.) Mass gatherings of more than 100 people have been forbidden, lots of sports matches and events cancelled. The amount of infected people is currently estimated at 6000, with about 1000 confirmed. (They don't test everybody due to limited test capacity; they only test people for whom they need to know, so healthcare workers and people admitted to hospital.) People with mild symptoms don't need to be tested as a majority of people will only have a mild flu. (Thankfully!) It's also recommended to avoid social activities. Schools have remained open so far but might face mandatory closure. (This is currently being discussed.) About 20 people have died so far, almost all had underlying medical conditions. So, that's the general sitrep, now some minor observations which might be useful for others here:

The Dutch variant of the CDC (RIVM) has recommended that we refrain from social activities and stay indoors when you have even the mildest of symptoms. The wife and I are doing this and it's a bit annoying as we had a small outing planned to celebrate her birthday. We had quite a few outings planned to friends and family and all have been cancelled. I'll be working from home tomorrow. This all is mildy inconvenient as I did have some meetings planned and I'm now missing the exercise. (You simply move a lot less when you're just at home.) I think I'll be using the crosstrainer to remedy my lack of exercise. So there's tip number 1: have means of exercise at home if you're forced to stay indoors. Getting constipated due to lack of movement's no fun!

The real fun comes with going grocery shopping: yesterday I went for my weekly shopping trip and sure enough, the hoarding has started. This was actually quite interesting because I got to see the stupidity of people, use this to your advantage:
  • Everybody hoarded: toilet paper, kitchen paper, tissues (fair enough), pasta (and sauces), chicken (?) and bread. So apparently everybody will be eating pasta with chicken and bread?
  • I bought fresh fish. Seriously; why chicken?
  • Nobody hoarded the fresh produce? I had plenty of fresh fruit and vegetables to choose from. Apparently, people think that they need pasta and some (see later bullit) canned goods but aren't bright enough to also get the fresh produce. The fresh produce easily has a shelf life of a week so if food distribution does become a problem, you can eat off the fresh produce for a week and then move on to canned for the second week. I have plenty of food now, so I'm good.
  • Not all canned goods were taken; people really seem to have pasta on their mind as their survival food but no one went for canned beans and peas? The more exotic food (chickpeas, naan bread, etc.) was also untouched. So apparently when it comes to survival they really want to eat the food they know. So diverisfy your diet and you'll have more options.
  • Pantry. This is ZS, so this is a given. Now, my pantry isn't up to ZS standards, but at least I've got one and I keep it fairly stocked. So having plenty of toilet paper and canned food in advance saved me trouble at the supermarket. I just got the fresh stuff and went on with life.
  • Flour was also sold out as was bread. It seems that as soon as bread was sold out, everybody wanted to get the flour and simply make it themselves. These people will keep themselves fed, but speaking from experience I can tell that making a good bread isn't easy. Partly thanks to ZS I acquired this skill a few years ago and it's become a hobby. Because I bake frequently, I keep a lot of flour at home. (I buy it wholesale.) So that's one thing I'm not worried about in the slightest: I've still got enough flour to produce about 40 breads, which lasts me about 20 weeks. (And this is with my stocks of flour running fairly low.)
Slow zombies, evidently...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:16 am

I just wanted to say that it is good to see all the old folks and new people on the board. The increase in traffic is great, I know we just wished that it was for different reasons. Please stop by CHAT to catch up :D

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Lynxian » Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:22 pm

Welp, little update: and now all schools, café's, bars, restaurants, coffee shops (the Dutch kind, hehe) and clubs are closed until april.

So if you'll excuse me, I now have to slightly remodel my home office to suit two people instead of one. :awesome:
Slow zombies, evidently...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by sheddi » Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:23 pm

The latest infographic from Italy is here:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... %20ENG.pdf

It's not pleasant reading.

22512 confirmed cases
2026 of those are healthcare workers
1625 fatalities (an overall CFR-to-date of 7.2%)

CFRs are up slightly on those from Friday:
0% CFR for those aged under 30 (unchanged)
0.3% for 30-40 (was 0.2%)
0.4% for 40-50 (was 0.2%)
1.0% for 50-60 (was 0.8%)
3.5% for 60-70 (was 2.7%)
12.5% for 70-80 (was 10.8%)
19.7% for 80-90 (was 17.5%)
22.7% for 90+ (was 21.1%)

Do keep in mind that for the lower age bands there are few enough cases & deaths that the CFR% will inevitably vary from day-to-day. Only 25% of cases, and 1% of deaths, are in persons under 50 years of age. 37% of cases, and 11% of deaths, are 50-70.

For the over-70s though, this doesn't look good; 38% of cases and 88% of deaths.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:28 pm

Midtown Manhattan Bank Runs Out Of $100 Bills Amid Corona Panic

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... rona-panic

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Black Beard » Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:31 pm

Hi All,

I've not been on here in a couple of years.

I think UK has lost any chance of containment. Working back from the current death rates to their likely infection point and then forward, increasing the infected using the confirmed cases numbers gives something around 100 000 people currently infected.

The UK government's strategy is probably the right one.

Take care and drive safely.

Black Beard

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:31 pm

Take a good look at that link. You could have made 15 of your own kits for the same price as that one.

Shit just got real though.....

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/cl ... virus-bars

https://1010wcsi.com/fox-news/new-orlea ... rus-death/

“This is irresponsible" - Unnamed mayor of New Orleans.

:roll:

Because the partiers in the Quarter are known for being otherwise responsible people?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by chills1994 » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:11 pm

It sounds like all US Air Force bases in CONUS are going to mission essential personnel only starting tomorrow Monday the 16th.

At the minimum, it is supposed to be two weeks.

With the max being 60 days.
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