Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

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Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat May 04, 2019 7:14 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... food-chain

What started with a few dozen dead pigs in northeastern China is sending shock waves through the global food chain.

Last August, a farm with fewer than 400 hogs on the outskirts of Shenyang was found to harbor African swine fever, the first ever occurrence of the contagious viral disease in the country with half the world’s pigs. Forty-seven head had died, triggering emergency measures including mass culling and a blockade to stop the transportation of livestock. Within days, a government notice proclaimed the outbreak “effectively controlled.”

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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by Halfapint » Sat May 04, 2019 2:10 pm

Sounds like the start to World War Z.....

If I'm not mistaken, swine flu/virus isn't the same as ebola?
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by flybynight » Sat May 04, 2019 7:43 pm

Halfapint wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 2:10 pm
Sounds like the start to World War Z.....

If I'm not mistaken, swine flu/virus isn't the same as ebola?
It's not a flu or ebola.
As of now I bet you got me wrong

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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by Halfapint » Sat May 04, 2019 7:59 pm

flybynight wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 7:43 pm
Halfapint wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 2:10 pm
Sounds like the start to World War Z.....

If I'm not mistaken, swine flu/virus isn't the same as ebola?
It's not a flu or ebola.
Yeah it helps when I actually read the full article. An ad cut off part of the story so I thought the article was done. That’s when I commented.
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by emclean » Mon May 06, 2019 7:31 am

flybynight wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 7:43 pm
Halfapint wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 2:10 pm
Sounds like the start to World War Z.....

If I'm not mistaken, swine flu/virus isn't the same as ebola?
It's not a flu or ebola.
"Like Ebola

The strain of African swine fever spreading in Asia is undeniably nasty, killing virtually every pig it infects by a hemorrhagic illness reminiscent of Ebola in humans. It’s not known to sicken people, however."

and the true horror "The price of bacon in Spain jumped about 20 percent during March"

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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by flybynight » Mon May 06, 2019 11:23 am

Might want to freeze some bacon for just in case. It looks like not if but when it will be in the states.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/03 ... 552756603/
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by absinthe beginner » Wed May 15, 2019 8:21 am


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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by Stercutus » Wed May 15, 2019 4:28 pm

Wow, a 30% cut is equal to the entire consumption of all of Europe. That is quite a lot although Europeans don't eat as much pork as Americans and Chinese.

I know China bought Smithfield and another large producer in the last few years so I would expect prices to skyrocket.
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by manacheck » Thu May 16, 2019 3:46 pm

I found this article helpful: https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/st ... e-fever-us

Pork Business has a number of articles about the swine flu and its impact on pretty much everyone involved in the food chain of pork and it, but I liked that article specifically because it mentions how ASF can be spread in pigs and exactly why (not just fearmongering of "don't or else!!") swill feeding has the potential to spread it to the US in the same way China is being affected. And continuing from that, it becomes obvious why the pork that was infected, even though the virus doesn't affect people and the meat is edible, still can't be let to come into the US:

"Swill feeding, also referred to as garbage feeding, includes feeding meat-containing plate waste versus recycled bakery products or other non-meat containing food waste."

"ASF is a highly resistant virus that needs to be cooked at 150 degrees Fahrenheit for 30 minutes to be deactivated in meat products. Although current U.S. regulations require producers who feed plate waste to cook it to 212 degrees Fahrenheit for 30 minutes prior to feeding."



A couple more related links from the same news site:
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/af ... wine-fever
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/us ... wine-fever
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/as ... orth-korea

I had read in some news or other, saying the first reports of the virus in China came from locations where China borders North Korea, and had wondered whether North Korea was affected too (or first). Now my curiousity is assauged: yes, they've been affected. It makes one wonder if North Korea is similarly doing mass culling like China is having to do, and what the impact ASF is having on their own people, since we hear so little news about that country's people in comparison to China. Regardless; Bacon index: I will watch you: www.cmegroup.com/baconindex :v:
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by Stercutus » Thu May 16, 2019 4:07 pm

Actually I'd be surprised if NK isn't buying the culled pigs and feeding them to their people.
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by manacheck » Sun May 19, 2019 7:05 pm

I would be astonished if NK is feeding any of their civillians, period.

Couple article links from the DailyNK:

https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-k ... shortages/
https://www.dailynk.com/english/south-p ... ty-crisis/

and directly related to ASF: https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-k ... ine-fever/

Not a good situation. The government "giving away" even infected pork sounds like it would have been a boon, seeing how the population is so desperate for food to eat, they are buying it regardless, even at a high price, against the policy, and without any kind of help from the party to deal with the problems. If the spread is lessening, it's not due to the government's help or the civillians stopping ASF's spread, seeing how they believe it spreads "through the air" "from wild hogs"
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by MPMalloy » Sun May 19, 2019 11:32 pm

manacheck wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 7:05 pm
Couple article links from the DailyNK:
Thank you for this source! :D

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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue May 21, 2019 8:29 am

Pork prices set to soar as African swine fever devastates pig industry in China

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/0 ... -industry/

The price of pork around the world is set to soar as the outbreak of a deadly virus sweeps China and surrounding countries necessitating the cull of millions of animals.

Experts say the epidemic of African swine fever is set to have as big an impact on the world meat industry as Bovine spongiform encephalopathy – or mad cow disease – which swept the world in the 1990s.

In China, as was the case in Britain at the height of the BSE crisis, entire herds of animals are having to be killed and burned or buried in an effort to contain the disease.

Mongolia, Vietnam and Cambodia are also fighting outbreaks and the disease has also been reported in wild boar in Eastern Europe and Germany.



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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon May 27, 2019 5:56 pm

"Pig Ebola" Epidemic Threatens To Unleash Stagflation Across China

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... ross-china

With Chinese pigs getting slaughtering left and right to contain the breakout of African swine fever, also known as "Pig Ebola", so are pork shorts as meat processors around the world scramble to sell more pork to China to make up for sharp shortages of China's most popular protein. The consequence is tighter supplies in the U.S. and Europe, which is pushing up prices. And as the disease continues to spread throughout China - the world’s largest producer and consumer - the trend will only get worse.

Case in point: US retail prices for boneless hams hit $4.31 per pound in March, the highest since 2015.

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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by Stercutus » Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:46 pm

In some piling on China is also dealing with a crop failure in apples. They are the world's largest producer of apples and they are eaten whole and used in a number of food products.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/chinese ... lainternal

It is easier to come up with substitutes for apples than for pigs but it is worth noting and keeping an eye on.
In April and May, frost, heavy rain and hail significantly damaged apple crops in major producing provinces, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in its June report.
As a result, China’s production of apples is expected to drop 25% to 31 million tons, its lowest in 9 years, the report said. That will contribute to an 8-year low in worldwide apple production, according to the report.
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by absinthe beginner » Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:51 am

Swine fever toll in China may be twice as high as reported, industry insiders say

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1TV017

BEIJING (Reuters) - As many as half of China’s breeding pigs have either died from African swine fever or been slaughtered because of the spreading disease, twice as many as officially acknowledged, according to the estimates of four people who supply large farms.

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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by absinthe beginner » Mon Jul 29, 2019 6:43 am

China’s pork prices to hit record level in 2019 due to African swine fever, even as imports surge, report says

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... ican-swine

China’s pork prices will reach a record level by the fourth quarter of 2019 due to the impact of African swine fever on domestic production, even as imports continue to surge, according to a Rabobank report.

Pork prices rose by nearly 30 per cent in June compared with a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, with the spread of African swine fever showing no sign of abating, causing domestic production to plunge.

“China’s pork and hog prices are likely to break the previous record high in 2016 by the fourth quarter,” said Pan Chenjun, the report’s author and a senior analyst for animal protein at Rabobank.

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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by absinthe beginner » Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:18 am

Chinese Duck Farmers Become Overnight Millionaires As Half Of China's Pigs Die

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07- ... s-pigs-die

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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by Stercutus » Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:00 pm

The irony here is that with the trade war they are punishing themselves twice over. Pork has a 62% tariff going in to China from the US. This forces the Chinese to buy pork all over the planet from everyone EXCEPT those that have it the cheapest with the easiest supply chain. Because pork is selling out everywhere else people around the world are buying up US pork and the US pork farmers are getting rich anyway.
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by manacheck » Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:53 am

How Spain stopped ASF, article February 22, 2019:

"Once upon a time, ASF was confined to Africa. However, in the late 1950s, it appeared in Portugal from Angola. Then, it began its slow creep across Europe, reaching Spain in 1960 before moving on to France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, between 1978-1980, it also appeared in Brazil, Cuba, The Dominican Republic and Haiti.

....In 1960, the virus spread widely in certain areas of the country. Initially, the usual picture of ASF was acute clinical signs and high mortality. This changed through the years to an endemic disease characterised by mild to subclinical forms and a mortality rate below 5% in infected herds. Thereafter, confirmation of the disease by laboratory diagnosis was required.

....Because there is no vaccine for ASF, the Spanish eradication program from 1985 to 1995 was based on the detection of ASF-infected animals by laboratory diagnosis and the enforcement of strict sanitary measures. Researchers combined epidemiological and laboratory techniques with predictive models and early detection techniques.

....After 35 years of working to eradicate this disease, Spain was finally declared ASF-free in 1995. Eradicating a disease in an endemic area is not easy, Sánchez-Vizcaíno says.

....Although the virus is always the same, the disease does not always present itself in the same way.

“There is no single prescription to control or eradicate a disease,” he adds. “During this process, we couldn’t think about the disease alone.”

He says they had to take into account the social, cultural and historical factors involved, especially in endemic areas. Perception of the disease was a critical hurdle to overcome.

“Everybody was adapted to live with the disease and was used to it,” he says. “They always asked me, ‘After so many years, why do we have to eradicate now?’ I learned that you have to motivate people by showing the advantages of eradication and proving that it is possible.” "
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/sa ... wine-fever


Global in pork news, beyond China:


South Africa, May 6, 2019:

"“The affected areas have been placed under quarantine and the provincial veterinary services are applying the necessary disease control measures,” the ministry said.

Authorities are investigating the source of the disease and other farms that could be affected."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/so ... -outbreaks

Poland, June 6, 2019:

"On May 29, ASF was confirmed on a 750-sow farm near Bielsk Podlaski, close to the border with Belarus. The farm had more than 8,000 pigs of all ages on location. The World Organization for Animal Health reports 61 animals had died from the disease, and the rest of the animals were disposed of.

ASF has been spreading across the country through wild boars, the government believes. Since October 2018, there have been more than 1,400 cases of ASF reported in wild boar populations."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/fa ... asf-poland


Taiwan, June 10, 2019:

"Since December 2018, 10 pig carcasses (suspected to be from China) have washed up on Kinmen and have tested positive for the virus."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/ta ... inmen-pork


Mongolia, June 12, 2019 :

"The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) added Mongolia to the list of regions they consider to be affected with African swine fever (ASF) on June 10.

“We took this action on Jan. 29, 2019, immediately after the disease was confirmed in Mongolia and are now publishing a notice in the regulations,” USDA said in a statement."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/us ... ia-due-asf


South Korea, June 18, 2019:

"South Korea’s government has completed quarantine measures on Sunday to keep African swine fever (ASF) out of border areas.

No cases have been reported to date. On May 30, North Korea confirmed an ASF outbreak. Since then, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs said it disinfected pig farms in 14 cities and counties in South Korea, including Ganghwa, Paju, Pocheon and Goyang from June 5 to June 14."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/so ... -virus-out


Laos, June 20, 2019:

"The southeast Asian country, situated between Thailand and Vietnam, reported seven outbreaks of the deadly virus of pigs in villages in Saravane, which led to the deaths of 973 animals, Reuters reported."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/la ... wine-fever


Vietnam, July 8, 2019:

"ASF has spread to nearly all cities and provinces in Vietnam, leading to the culling of over 2.9 million pigs. This accounts for over 10% of the country's total pig population, Xinhua reported.

The shortage of pork due to ASF is expected to hit Vietnam later this year, the Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said. In the meantime, Vietnam is focusing on developing cattle, poultry and aquatic breeding to compensate for this loss of pork."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/af ... akes-place

Slovakia, July 26-28, 2019:

"The disease was discovered on a farm with four pigs in Košice province, close to the border of Hungary and Ukraine, countries that have both confirmed ASF in earlier years. Hundreds of wild boar in Hungary have also been diagnosed with ASF this year, AFP reported.

All pigs within three kilometers of the outbreak will be culled, Slovakian authorities said, adding that they will establish a three-kilometer protection zone and a 10-kilometer surveillance zone."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/af ... s-slovakia

"Ever since ASF has entered Eastern Europe in 2007, the virus has been able to find a way into Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Hungary and Belgium. ....Belgium appears to be well on the way to also successfully eradicate the virus from its wild boar population.... The situation in Romania and Bulgaria, on the other hand, appear less optimistic with the summer months bringing new waves of outbreaks, affecting larger farms as well. Also in Poland, this week 8 new outbreaks on farms were reported, including a larger one of over 3,300 pigs, discovered on July 14."
https://www.pigprogress.net/Health/Arti ... r-454923E/


Bulgaria, August 2, 2019:

"Protest rallies took place in southern Bulgaria on Friday as hundreds resisted the government’s order to cull all home-raised pigs in a 12.4-mile sanitary zone around all registered industrial pig farms on Monday because of deadly African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks."
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/pi ... s-protests

"Experts say Bulgaria could lose its entire pig breeding industry and have its 600,000 pigs culled due to the highly contagious disease, which affects pigs but not humans. "
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bulg ... SKCN1US237
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by Dabster » Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:36 pm

manacheck wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 11:53 am

Bulgaria, August 2, 2019:

"Protest rallies took place in southern Bulgaria on Friday as hundreds resisted the government’s order to cull all home-raised pigs in a 12.4-mile sanitary zone."
This is the part that worries me. I know these people are unhappy and maybe they are just protesting but resisting these measures is a possibility and it will really, really not help.
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Re: Pig Ebola virus Sends Shock Waves Through Global Food Chain

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:41 pm

"I've Never Seen Anything Like This": China Reels As Pork Prices Explode To Record Levels

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... ord-levels

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