When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

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When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:20 am

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 293190002/

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The question is not if a massive earthquake will hit more than a half dozen states that border the Mississippi River, but rather when it will happen.

A minor earthquake early Wednesday that centered on Decatur in East Tennessee about 60 miles southwest of Knoxville was felt into Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina and South Carolina.

"A 4.4 magnitude earthquake is a reminder for people to be prepared," said John Bobel, a public information officer for the division of emergency management in Kentucky's Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government. People see indoor objects shake with magnitude 4 to 4.9 quakes, but the quakes generally cause little to minimal damage.

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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:30 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12- ... west-south

Tennessee Struck By The Largest Earthquake In 45 Years

In recent months, there have been massive earthquakes in Venezuela, Fiji, Italy and elsewhere. Here in North America, significant quakes have rattled Oregon, Alaska and the west coast of Mexico.

While the West Coast is notorious for its earthquakes, other portions of the US are also earthquake-prone.

Two earthquakes reported Wednesday morning in Eastern Tennessee have shocked Middle Tennesseans and were felt in Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, and South Carolina.

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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by NT2C » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:36 pm

My theory is that it's due to ice melt. As the ice in polar regions melts and flows back to the various seas that represents a tremendous weight shift on the tectonic plates. Think of it this way... You know how a boat shifts when you step on/off because of your weight? Okay, the boat is the tectonic plate and you're the ice melting as you step off.
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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by grumpyviking » Fri Dec 14, 2018 10:12 am

we don't have much of earthquakes in the UK. I believe they have some up North, places like Lancashire, and they are very very minor, not noticeable on the surface. not down south, our region is Granite and earthquakes don't happen here.
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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by The Twizzler » Fri Dec 14, 2018 7:00 pm

Whoa, Whoa..... There's a New Madrid seismic zone?









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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:18 pm

NT2C wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:36 pm
My theory is that it's due to ice melt. As the ice in polar regions melts and flows back to the various seas that represents a tremendous weight shift on the tectonic plates. Think of it this way... You know how a boat shifts when you step on/off because of your weight? Okay, the boat is the tectonic plate and you're the ice melting as you step off.
Interesting and timely theory, but no. One of the killjoys of being married to a doctor in geophysics is she pokes big holes in all my ideas.

Most of the zones where oceanic plates meet continental plates are subduction zones where the oceanic plate goes under the continental plate and returns to the molten mantle of the earth.

What is causing many earthquakes in the central US is coming from fracking. The injection of high pressure liquids into the earth has been documented to cause earthquakes as far back as about 1961 when chemical warfare byproducts where injected into the ground in Colorado.

You can read more about that here: https://scits.stanford.edu/sites/defaul ... vans_0.pdf
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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by Langenator » Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:53 am

We need a betting line in Vegas on which goes first with a big one (and maybe various lines for how big - 7.0, 7.5, etc) New Madrid or the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

IIRC, the CSZ lets go with something in the 7.5-8.0 range every 200-500 years. The last such quake there was in 1700 (known to the exact day from tsunami records in Japan.)

Do we have any seimologists who with set the odds?
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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by NT2C » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:42 am

Evan the Diplomat wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:18 pm
NT2C wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:36 pm
My theory is that it's due to ice melt. As the ice in polar regions melts and flows back to the various seas that represents a tremendous weight shift on the tectonic plates. Think of it this way... You know how a boat shifts when you step on/off because of your weight? Okay, the boat is the tectonic plate and you're the ice melting as you step off.
Interesting and timely theory, but no. One of the killjoys of being married to a doctor in geophysics is she pokes big holes in all my ideas.

Most of the zones where oceanic plates meet continental plates are subduction zones where the oceanic plate goes under the continental plate and returns to the molten mantle of the earth.

What is causing many earthquakes in the central US is coming from fracking. The injection of high pressure liquids into the earth has been documented to cause earthquakes as far back as about 1961 when chemical warfare byproducts where injected into the ground in Colorado.

You can read more about that here: https://scits.stanford.edu/sites/defaul ... vans_0.pdf
Dang it, I really liked this theory. :(

I'm going to hold onto it a bit longer because, "Who knows what you'll know tomorrow". :mrgreen:
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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by DarkAxel » Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:05 pm

This sounds like it would be a nice topic for discussion... In another thread.

On topic:

https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Secon ... 81551.html
MASCOT, Tenn. (AP) - An earthquake centered in eastern Tennessee also was felt in three other states.

The U.S. Geological Survey website says the epicenter of the magnitude 3.0 earthquake early Sunday was about two miles (four kilometers) southeast of Mascot, near Knoxville. It also was felt in parts of Georgia, Kentucky and North Carolina.
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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by Cybrludite » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:59 am

A good primer on the subject: http://www.stephanie-osborn.com/Rock%20and%20Roll.html

Available in installments here: https://accordingtohoyt.com/2017/08/31/ ... ie-osborn/

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Re: When will The Big One hit New Madrid Seismic Zone?

Post by grennels » Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:27 pm

"What is causing many earthquakes in the central US is coming from fracking."

As far as I know there wasn't any fracking going on in the New Madrid area in 1812.
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