Hurricanes 2017

Stuff that’s happening in the world that may pertain to our survival. Please keep political debates off the forum.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:45 am

RickOShea wrote:
raptor wrote:If it is at all possible I would suggest the three of them go north (or east then north) and get a hotel room in the Jacksonville area (if possible). The east coast of FL is now likely to be safer. Plan on coming back to the assisted living facility after it is over on Tuesdayish.
One of our local Mobile, AL newz reporters is in Jacksonville. She posted this a little while ago:

https://www.facebook.com/hayleyWKRG/pos ... 4280074100

....Sounds like she and her cameraman just got kicked-out of their hotel and had to find other accommodations. Maybe it was just because their hotel was right near the beach, hopefully others in the Jax area are still open.
OK JAX is bad advice on my part. :oops:

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:50 am

raptor: Are those storm warning flags in your sig block?

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:00 pm

No they are maritime signal flags with a message.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by RickOShea » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:04 pm

raptor wrote:No they are maritime signal flags with a message.
"Shut up & sit down...I'm the pilot...listen to what I tell ya"?
whisk.e.rebellion wrote: It's not what you say anymore. It's how you say it.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:11 pm

RickOShea wrote:
raptor wrote:No they are maritime signal flags with a message.
"Shut up & sit down...I'm the pilot...listen to what I tell ya"?
:lol: :lol: :lol:

Not exactly but close enough.

More like "Hey stop that! We have experts here. Listen to them if want to know what they know."
Last edited by raptor on Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by majorhavoc » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:12 pm

Raptor's suggestion about bugging out is an excellent one but it appears that window has closed. So let others look at my situation as a hard reminder of the value of acting early and decisively:

~ The mother-in-law and a niece apparently tried to drive north yesterday but weren't able to make much progress and had to turn around. That's not entirely consistent with the traffic reports I had been reading (saying northbound travel was still possible) but I have to take their first hand account at face value. As we all know what's initially reported isn't always accurate, especially in a developing news situation.
~ Even if northward progress were still possible it would be extremely slow (dad's on the I-75 corridor, which has been known to turn into a parking lot even in non-emergency situations.) Without elaborating, Dad's current medical situation would make that extremely problematic.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Benbrutal » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:30 pm

http://www.windy.com I used this site to check on the path Irma was supposed to take and saw there wasn't any steering winds to turn it north. I told my wife it was going to continue west at least another day before turning and now there looks to be a current that will head it north after is passes cuba. You can check the winds from the surface to FL45, the temps, waves, pressure and other info. I am not a weather guy, just had to know some things about it for my job in Iraq.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:53 pm

When winds reach 45 mph, deputies in southern Florida municipalities will not be responding to calls for assistance.

Once again, the 2nd Amendment will prove essential for protecting life and property.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-0 ... responding

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Old_Man » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:25 pm

32,000 without power via FPL.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:26 pm

Evacuating on gridlocked highways must be a nightmare. Especially for the unprepared.

http://www.businessinsider.com/florida- ... ees-2017-9

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by TacAir » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:46 pm

Benbrutal wrote:http://www.windy.com I used this site to check on the path Irma was supposed to take and saw there wasn't any steering winds to turn it north. I told my wife it was going to continue west at least another day before turning and now there looks to be a current that will head it north after is passes cuba. You can check the winds from the surface to FL45, the temps, waves, pressure and other info. I am not a weather guy, just had to know some things about it for my job in Iraq.
Thanks for the link!
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Old_Man » Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:01 pm

absinthe beginner wrote:Evacuating on gridlocked highways must be a nightmare. Especially for the unprepared.

http://www.businessinsider.com/florida- ... ees-2017-9
Took a friend of mine 27hrs to go 211 miles....normally a 4hr trip. Imagine if it was more extensive disaster with large scale collapse of service....

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by absinthe beginner » Sat Sep 09, 2017 2:13 pm

The kindness of strangers can never replace being prepared in the first place.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ins ... 5e78f2de97

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:19 pm

From FEMA: How to Volunteer for Hurricane Irma Disaster Relief
How to Volunteer for Hurricane Irma Disaster Relief

Release date: September 9, 2017 Release Number: HQ-17-100

WASHINGTON - As Hurricane Irma rapidly approaches Florida, the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other federal agencies, along with non-profit, faith- and community-based organizations, and volunteers will be working together to provide services and assistance to help those affected by the destructive storm.

“Right now where we need citizens, neighbors helping neighbors, is in the life safety mission,” said Brock Long, FEMA Administrator. “The objectives are clear: restore power, ensure lifesaving and life sustaining supplies, provide emergency medication, and maintain security. This response and recovery will take the whole community...”

FEMA expects thousands of volunteers to be needed to support mass care activities for evacuation shelters in Florida, and potentially other southeastern states in the path of Hurricane Irma.

Individuals seeking to volunteer in Hurricane Irma’s aftermath should not self-deploy, but rather, coordinate with local and state organizations to ensure appropriate volunteer safety, training, and housing. Volunteers acting alone and attempting to enter impacted zones may find themselves turned away by local authorities.

In Florida, the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FEDM) is coordinating with volunteer organizations across the state and partnering with the American Red Cross (ARC) to provide shelter operations training to volunteers and AmeriCorps grantees.

Those interested in volunteering to assist in Florida are encouraged to learn about opportunities at http://www.volunteerflorida.org, the website of Volunteer Florida, the state's lead agency for volunteerism and national service that administers federal, state, and local funding for service programs. Individuals looking to volunteer at shelters, should complete shelter operations training online and submit a registration form. Since the damages are unknown as of now, potential volunteers are asked to seek opportunities with charitable organizations that are currently stocking supplies. The website is frequently updated, so please check back for new information.

If you are a nurse and available to volunteer, please email BPRCHDPreparedness@flhealth.gov to volunteer.

Individuals who register online and have completed the training, should note that if not contacted, please do not unexpectedly travel to disaster areas to volunteer, as it will create a burden on organizations and first responders. Volunteers should only go into affected areas with a specific volunteer assignment, proper safety gear, and valid identification.

VOLUNTEERING IN THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE IRMA

As the storm is anticipated to affect other areas in the Southeast, the need for volunteers is expected to extend beyond Florida. Anyone looking to get involved after Hurricane Irma has passed, is encouraged to volunteer with local and nationally known organizations. A list of volunteer websites are available at http://www.nvoad.org.

Volunteer generosity helps impacted communities heal from the tragic consequences of disasters, but recovery will last much longer. There will be several volunteer needs in the coming months and years, so please continue to sign up after the disaster.

Hurricane Irma is still considered extremely dangerous, with the potential to impact additional areas than Florida. As the situation changes, needs may also change in these areas, so please continue to monitor traditional and social media channels to learn more.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:06 pm

From NPR: Hurricane Irma Update: Floridians' Window To Evacuate Is Closing As Irma Bears Down
Hurricane Irma Update: Floridians' Window To Evacuate Is Closing As Irma Bears Down September 9, 2017 11:33 AM ET By Amy Held

Updated 4:00 p.m. ET

After battering Cuba on Saturday morning, the eye of Hurricane Irma had its sights set on Florida as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph that were predicted only to gain in strength, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Florida braces for direct hit

"The storm is here," Florida Gov. Rick Scott said at a 9:30 a.m. press conference Saturday.

"Southeast Florida is already experiencing tropical storm force winds, and nearly 25,000 people have already lost power," Scott said. "This is a deadly storm, and our state has never seen anything like it. Millions of Floridians will see major hurricane impacts with deadly storm surge and life-threatening winds."

On Saturday afternoon, Irma was lingering over the northern coast of Cuba, about 145 miles southeast of Key West, Fla., and moving at 9 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

"Major hurricane force winds (are) expected over the Florida Keys at daybreak," according to the NHC advisory.

Forecasters say that as Irma moves over the warm waters off Florida's coast, it will strengthen.

"Conditions in S Florida will continue (to) get MUCH worse by late tonight through Sunday afternoon," the National Weather Center Miami tweeted Saturday.

The storm is expected to move northwestward, says Michael Brennan, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

"That's going to take the core of the hurricane up or just onshore of the west coast of Florida during the day on Sunday into Sunday night," Brennan said.

But just because the storm is tracking westward does not mean Florida's east coast is in the clear.

A state of emergency remains in effect in all 67 counties within the state.

On Saturday President Trump and his Cabinet were getting regular updates about the hurricane from Camp David, according to a White House official.

Storm surge

Although Irma's winds could cause major damage to structures and power lines, officials say the amount of water they could bring ashore is one of the biggest risks.

A storm surge warning was in effect Saturday for much of Florida's coast — both eastern and western.

"On its current forecast track, there's a real threat of potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge in the Gulf Coast communities of Southwest Florida," said Robert Molleda with the National Weather Service in Miami on Saturday. "Inundation from the storm surge could be as much as 15 feet deep in some areas near and along the Gulf Coast."

Gov. Scott reiterated that threat at the noon presser: "There is a serious threat of significant storm surge flooding along the entire west coast of Florida, and this has increased to 15 feet of impact above ground level."

Scott noted that residents could be lulled into a false sense of safety after the winds die down, but that is when the storm surge comes.

"This will cover your house," Scott said. "If you've ever watched how storm surge works, it flows in fast, very fast, then it flows out. You will not survive."

Time to evacuate narrows

The evacuation window was closing fast Saturday. Scott reiterated the call for residents under an evacuation order to get out immediately. "If you have been ordered to evacuate anywhere in the state, you need to leave right now," Scott said at a noon press conference. "You are running out of time to make a decision."

More than 6 million Floridians have been ordered to leave their homes.

Scott said that traffic along evacuation routes was moving Saturday afternoon.

The National Weather Service Key West tweeted Saturday morning that everybody in the Keys, should "get out if you can," with a guide to "refuges of last resort."

Miami-Dade County said that Metrobus will stop service to evacuation shelters at 2 p.m. Saturday.

A complicating factor Saturday was the risk of tornadoes in the southern part of the state.

Miami hit by outer bands Saturday

By Saturday morning, Miami was already being hit by the outer bands of the storm, bringing strong winds and heavy rain.

The weather forced NPR's Kirk Siegler to turn back after attempting to report from a Miami shelter. Earlier, he was able to meet with resident Gloria Negron who along with her dog, Lucky, got into a city shelter.

"We just have to do our best, inside there," Negron said. "There are too many people. And everybody is at the edge."

Negron had to spend the night sleeping in a chair, but she is one of the lucky ones. Siegler reports that the shelter has had to turn away others because of overcrowding.

Seeking shelter

Scott said there were more than 320 shelters open across the state in every county Saturday, with more shelters set to open over the course of the day.

"More than 50,000 Floridians have taken shelter, and there is still room for more."

Scott put out a call Saturday for 1,000 volunteer nurses to help at special-needs shelters. Those interested should email: helpfl@flhealth.gov.

Floridians prepare

Other state residents have opted to ride out the storm in their homes.

Paul McNamara of Port St. Lucie tells NPR that his wife's profession — she is a nurse — meant she could not leave work, so they are staying put with their two children, ages 1 and 4.

"We have storm shutters, a generator, a lot of water, food, diapers and probably a large market share of the locally available flashlights," McNamara told NPR. "I imagine our shed will be leveled and our fence will disappear, but other than that, we should be scared out of our mind."

Meantime, Kyle Manders of Naples said he got out of town on Tuesday with his wife and dog.

"We didn't want to risk our lives, and we were able to secure our home quickly thanks to accordion shutters. Leaving behind the life we built in our home was a bit surreal. What keepsakes to save?" Manders added that lessons from Hurricane Harvey — a storm that brought rapid flooding — persuaded him to leave.

Southeastern U.S. also at risk

As Irma moves over land it is expected to weaken, but it could still bring heavy winds and rains over the Southeast. As AP reports:
"By early next week, Irma is expected to track into the southeastern United States. Thus, all residents from Georgia through the Carolinas and into Virginia should prepare and monitor the progression of this very dangerous hurricane."
Parts of Georgia and South Carolina were under hurricane and storm surge watches Saturday.

A state of emergency is in effect in 30 counties in Georgia and Gov. Nathan Deal has issued a mandatory evacuation order for parts of coastal Chatham County. Most of the city of Savannah fell under a voluntary evacuation Saturday.

Meantime Johnny Kauffman from member station WABE reports that Atlanta residents and others in northern Georgia were preparing to house evacuees from the coast and Florida.

Irma Batters Cuba

When Irma made landfall in Cuba early Saturday, it was still a Category 5 storm. It ripped across the island nation's northern shores, downing power lines, bending palm trees and sending huge waves crashing over sea walls, reports The Associated Press.

CNN reports conditions were expected to deteriorate into Saturday even as the storm moved away, "but it could take a long time before the full extent of the damage is known."

Caribbean aftermath

Irma has left devastation across the Caribbean, killing at least 22 people (a number that is expected to grow), leveling basic infrastructure and leaving thousands homeless.

Barbuda and the British Virgin Islands are among the worst hit.

Paul Exner, an American citizen in Tortola, the largest of the British Virgin Islands, posted a darkened video plea to Facebook.

"It is fairly critical that aid in terms of food and water is brought to the island," Exner said Friday night.

French, American and British relief have all been dispatched to the region.

Damages from Irma were estimated to be $1.44 billion by Saturday, reports the AP.

Dutch officials said Saturday that Irma has damaged or destroyed nearly three quarters of St. Martin's homes, leaving the island vulnerable to Hurricane Jose, a Category 4 storm, following in Irma's wake, reports AP.

Part of a storm-battered region will unfortunately not be granted much of a reprieve.

"Jose is out there, and it is actually, unfortunately, affecting some of the same areas in the northeastern Leeward Islands that were hit very very hard by Irma just a few days ago," said Brennan of the National Hurricane Center.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:37 pm

I checked & this article is straight science..... :)

From NPR: Hurricanes: A Science Primer
Hurricanes: A Science Primer September 8, 2017 1:30 PM ET By Marcelo Gleiser

America seems to be a magnet for devastating hurricanes these days.

This year, Harvey came out strong with its horrific toll on parts of Texas and Louisiana. Now Irma, downgraded slightly Friday morning to a Category 4 storm from its most recent days as a Category 5, has left destruction in its wake as it plows through the Caribbean and Cuba — and is on path to hit Florida Sunday morning.

It's too early to know if this will be a particularly bad year, as the average number of major hurricanes in the U.S. per decade is roughly six. But averages, important as they are, mean little to those who have to brace for impact.

We know how damaging such natural phenomenon can be — and how costly, at many levels, from emotional loss to rebuilding costs in the billions of dollars. The devastation is not surprising, once you know how much energy is involved.

Consider this: In one day, an average hurricane releases as much energy as half a million atomic bombs, a force to be reckoned with.

When the sun heats an ocean to more than 82 degrees, moist hot air rises up meeting cooler air — creating thunderstorms. Upper-level winds and surface winds come together, forming a circular pattern called a tropical depression. (Why circular? See below.) Then, when the winds reach 74 miles per hour, a hurricane forms, sometimes as wide as 500 miles in diameter, nearly the size of Texas, reaching heights of nine miles. This short National Geographic info-video is a good introduction to hurricanes.

Remarkably, hurricanes spin counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern hemisphere. This differential spinning is due to Earth's rotation. If the Earth didn't rotate, winds of up to 300 miles per hour would howl from the poles to the Equator and back. But Earth's spin, and because the equatorial regions spin a bit faster than the regions at higher and lower latitudes, affects the air currents due to what is known as the Coriolis effect. In the first half of the 19th century, French engineer and mathematician Gustave Gaspard Coriolis proposed it as an explanation as to how the motion of objects is affected when they are on a rotating basis or reference frame (like the spinning Earth or a merry-go-round).

Think of the Earth as a big ball rotating from West to East. (So, if you are looking at it from the top, it will rotate counter-clockwise.) Air currents near the equator get pushed a bit faster than those closer to the poles, with those above the Equator getting pushed to the right and those below it to the left. It is this pushing that causes hurricanes in the North to rotate counter-clockwise and those in the South, clockwise. This also explains why hurricanes don't cross the equator, as the Coriolis effect there is too weak to get the air spinning fast enough.

In any case, let's hope that Irma misses the American mainland — or, at least, that it downgrades even more if it does so.

Marcelo Gleiser is a theoretical physicist and writer — and a professor of natural philosophy, physics and astronomy at Dartmouth College. He is the director of the Institute for Cross-Disciplinary Engagement at Dartmouth, co-founder of 13.7 and an active promoter of science to the general public. His latest book is The Simple Beauty of the Unexpected: A Natural Philosopher's Quest for Trout and the Meaning of Everything. You can keep up with Marcelo on Facebook and Twitter: @mgleiser

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 5:44 pm

Keep in mind if Jose goes to CAT5 it WILL make landfall somewhere. Every CAT5 ever has always done so.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Woods Walker » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:46 pm

My uncle is in Marco Island. He evacuated to Tampa the other day. 10-15 foot storm surge expected and heard something about 35 foot waves. I spent a good deal of time on Marco Island. Have biked most of it and the only real hill I remember peddling up was Indian hill though can't be more than 60 feet elevation. The place is flat I mean really flat. Same for Naples and Fort Myers. The little burrowing owls I hung out with at night are doomed. So much for all the taping off of the burrows. Anyone on the islands really could die.

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So I might be eating the last of the Marco Island grown avocados right now.

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This is really really bad.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:48 pm

Sales of alcohol & firearms are now prohibited in parts of FL, according to NPR, Hourly News summary podcast (1800 hrs.).

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:04 pm

TWC is showing live video of rain squalls in Miami with 50 -60 mph winds.
As of now I bet you got me wrong

John Titor was right

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:40 pm

Benbrutal wrote:http://www.windy.com I used this site to check on the path Irma was supposed to take and saw there wasn't any steering winds to turn it north. I told my wife it was going to continue west at least another day before turning and now there looks to be a current that will head it north after is passes cuba. You can check the winds from the surface to FL45, the temps, waves, pressure and other info. I am not a weather guy, just had to know some things about it for my job in Iraq.
I have been looking for that steering current. I had the same opinion as you did before I saw the site.

Old_Man wrote: Took a friend of mine 27hrs to go 211 miles....normally a 4hr trip. Imagine if it was more extensive disaster with large scale collapse of service....
I assume he was able to get fuel? How did that work? FWIW the 60 miles form NOLA to Baton Rouge in an evacuation can take 8 to 12 hours even with contraflow using both sides of I-10.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Woods Walker » Sat Sep 09, 2017 8:44 pm

MPMalloy wrote:Sales of alcohol & firearms are now prohibited in parts of FL, according to NPR, Hourly News summary podcast (1800 hrs.).
Seems a bit late to be shopping at the package store. LOL!
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by IceWing » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:00 pm

MPMalloy wrote:Sales of alcohol & firearms are now prohibited in parts of FL, according to NPR, Hourly News summary podcast (1800 hrs.).
I'm curious as to the reasoning for this? And the legal backing\support... Is it under the state of emergency provisions\written into state law?
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:28 pm

IceWing wrote:
MPMalloy wrote:Sales of alcohol & firearms are now prohibited in parts of FL, according to NPR, Hourly News summary podcast (1800 hrs.).
I'm curious as to the reasoning for this? And the legal backing\support... Is it under the state of emergency provisions\written into state law?
I would suspect it it is because of the curfew in those certain parts of Florida to which they refer prohibit travel and by default all commerce. Not that NPR has ever been wrong about anything related to firearms.

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