Hurricanes 2017

Stuff that’s happening in the world that may pertain to our survival. Please keep political debates off the forum.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Tue Sep 05, 2017 12:52 pm

185 :ohdear:




000
WTNT31 KNHC 051742
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
200 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION IN THE EASTERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.34 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the
hurricane conditions are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as
well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.1 West. Irma is moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma
is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 185 mph (295
km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is an extremely dangerous category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but
Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane
during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 926 mb (27.34 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme
northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and
to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area where
hurricane conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning tonight.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands. Irma is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches across northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, and amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southwest Puerto
Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Not all those who wander are lost

John Titor was right

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by teotwaki » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:04 pm

majorhavoc wrote:I'm kind of in a tough position. I'm in mid gulf coast Florida at the moment caring for my Dad. Mom died last month and he's had a major health setback. My brothers and I have been tag-teaming coming down to help Dad get to doctors appointments, deal with insurance, attorneys, etc. I've been distracted by all that (and Mom's passing :cry:) so Irma has sort of snuck up on me.

Dad has little in the way of preps. I've been stocking up on basic supplies for sheltering in but he lives in a manufactured home (aka doublewide) built before even the updated Florida codes that mandate things like roof straps. This thing hits anywhere near here and he's potentially in a very bad situation.

Complicating this is I'm flying back north Thursday because I have shoulder surgery in Maine on Friday. My younger brother is flying in later on Thursday, so Dad won't be alone when/if Irma pays a visit on Saturday. That's well ahead of the storm so neither of our travel plans will be disrupted. But I hate the idea of leaving him. My brother Mike is no prepper, but he's a good man and I know he'll get Dad the hell out of this cardboard house if things look dicey. In the mean time I'm pulling together a grab and go kit for those two. Depending on how the storm tracks, I might move everything into Dad's car Wednesday night.

Will be rooting for your Dad! Update us as often as is possible with your pending surgery.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by teotwaki » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:06 pm

Some of my relatives in Florida are posting pictures similar to this on their Facebook pages

Image
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by SCBrian » Tue Sep 05, 2017 1:41 pm

Charleston seems to be having the same issues, from a friends report, not Myrtle beach or Savannah, just Charleston. I put it up to the transplants from up yonder...
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:51 pm

teotwaki wrote:Some of my relatives in Florida are posting pictures similar to this on their Facebook pages

Image

This is why ZS says plan ahead with food, water, fuel and other supplies. Seriously hurricanes have a season and actually give several days notice. No one in a hurricane prone are should be surprises by a hurricane.

BTW some simple math for water supplies.

A typical case of 20 12 fl oz water bottles cost about $3.99 (240 fl oz or 1.9 gallons) or $2.10 per gallon excluding sales tax.

A simple collapsible water jug costs ~$9 or about $1.80 of storage capacity. The tap water to fill it cost maybe $.01. So you spend less and here is the best part. You fill them at home and do not have to deal with panic shoppers.

This is storable and reusable even if you use it. Simply empty it dry it out and pack it away for the next 5 hurricane seasons.
https://smile.amazon.com/Coleman-5-Gall ... ter+bottle

Preaching to the choir here I know ... but seriously buy the jugs and fill them up when the need presents itself instead of running to the store to buy bottles of water. Pack them away for next year and you have your storm preps for water for the next 5+ years until they need to be replaced.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Stercutus » Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:54 pm

If it hits Miami that is really bad news. 7th Largest metro area in US.

A South to North land path up either coast of Florida would be over the top destructive.
You go 'round and around it
You go over and under
I go through

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by teotwaki » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:01 pm

raptor wrote: This is storable and reusable even if you use it. Simply empty it dry it out and pack it away for the next 5 hurricane seasons.
https://smile.amazon.com/Coleman-5-Gall ... ter+bottle
I have those for camping but have found them to be sort of easily pierced and they start weeping. At home I have three 33 gallon blue plastic barrels as well as numerous 5 gallon Scepter water cans, 50 gallon water heater, bottled water, 20 gallons stored in the bug out trailer and so on. Enough to get me through quite a number of back-2-back FEMA "72 hour" scenarios.

I am already enjoying the I-told-you-so with those relatives! Cruel but necessary :twisted:
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:14 pm

teotwaki wrote:I am already enjoying the I-told-you-so with those relatives! Cruel but necessary :twisted:
Yes, it is necessary. Good preps. Props! :)

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:47 pm

teotwaki wrote:
raptor wrote: This is storable and reusable even if you use it. Simply empty it dry it out and pack it away for the next 5 hurricane seasons.
https://smile.amazon.com/Coleman-5-Gall ... ter+bottle
I have those for camping but have found them to be sort of easily pierced and they start weeping. At home I have three 33 gallon blue plastic barrels as well as numerous 5 gallon Scepter water cans, 50 gallon water heater, bottled water, 20 gallons stored in the bug out trailer and so on. Enough to get me through quite a number of back-2-back FEMA "72 hour" scenarios.
There are without a doubt better choices than the jugs i referenced. That said I use these to illustrate to people I know that prepping is not expensive and can actually be cheaper (even if they last only one hurricane season) than panic buying. :)

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by raptor » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:51 pm

Stercutus wrote:If it hits Miami that is really bad news. 7th Largest metro area in US.

A South to North land path up either coast of Florida would be over the top destructive.
This is the weather guess du jour for the next 5 days.

The front on this map has already passed through NOLA as I type this. Where that front interfaces with Irma will decide the turn (or no turn if the front falters). Based upon this it looks like FL, GA and SC would get whacked hard.

Image

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:23 pm

From NPR: http://www.npr.org/2017/09/05/548687237 ... rksSeeking Shelter, Harvey Evacuees Stay In State Parks
Seeking Shelter, Harvey Evacuees Stay In State Parks September 5, 2017 5:17 PM ET By Katie Hayes Luke

Erik Ryan and Mia Reynolds from San Leon, Texas, sit at the picnic table at their campsite in Bastrop State Park. Reynolds, who is currently on hold with FEMA, says that she has been through storms before.

"I did not want to wait around for a politician to tell me to evacuate. I saw the storm on the news and had a bad feeling. That's when I decided to rent a U-Haul truck and pull out."

Reynolds pauses as a an electronic voice comes over the phone: "Your wait time is now 154 minutes."

Ryan and Reynolds, who live in their Airstream Trailer, took one and a half days to pack up their homesite and move vehicles to higher ground ahead of the storm. Their first stop was the Houston West RV Park in Brookshire, Texas, west of Katy. After five days of rain and water levels rising, Ryan and Reynolds realized that it was time to go again. Running out of money and resources, they were relieved to hear Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's announcement that Texas State Parks were open for the month of September for evacuees, free of charge.

"It has been great to see the overwhelming response from the local community," says Evans.

Roughly 7,500 people have sought shelter at Texas State Parks since the state parks opened to evacuees on Aug. 24, before Hurricane Harvey made landfall, according to Stephanie Garcia, a representative with Texas Parks & Wildlife.

At Inks Lake State Park volunteers currently provide two meals a day and basic services to the 40 evacuees staying at the park, down from 120 evacuees a week after the storm. A doctor from Scott & White, a chain of hospitals and clinics in the area, answered medical questions and representatives from the local school district informed parents about how to enroll students into the local school system.

As the flood water in the coastal cities recedes, so does the need for shelter at the State Parks. People are returning to their homes and surveying the damage. Evans expects that some of those who have left will return if there is no home to go back to.

Leonard Turner, 81, evacuated before the storm made a direct hit over his town of Rockport, Texas. Turner, a retired Bastrop police officer, left his home with a few days worth of clothes and his favorite John Wayne tapes.

"I knew that it would be bad, but I still thought a few things would survive. My house was built in 1952. I know that it did not have a chance," says Turner.

After four days of sleeping in his truck in Bastrop, Texas, he heard that the State Parks were open to evacuees and he made his way to Bastrop State Park. He now knows that his house was totally destroyed by the storm.

"I knew what was going to happen even before it happened. With 135 miles per hour winds, nothing else could happen," says Turner.

Katie Hayes Luke is a freelance photojournalist and multimedia producer based in Austin, Texas.
I recommend clicking the link to see all the pics that the author took. Too many for me to post.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by RickOShea » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:36 pm

Tolls on Florida roadways will be suspended starting at 5 p.m. Tuesday

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather ... 52602.html


TALLAHASSEE - Residents and visitors evacuating South Florida ahead of Hurricane Irma won’t have to pay tolls starting at 5 p.m. Tuesday.

A spokeswoman for Gov. Rick Scott told the Herald/Times the governor’s order applies to all Florida roadways and toll systems “until further notice.”

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Halfapint » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:17 pm

Not to make light of the hurricanes, but this song has been playing a lot on my Pandora mix.



Good song about the resilience of hurricane regions.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:12 pm

raptor wrote:
teotwaki wrote:
raptor wrote: This is storable and reusable even if you use it. Simply empty it dry it out and pack it away for the next 5 hurricane seasons.
https://smile.amazon.com/Coleman-5-Gall ... ter+bottle
I have those for camping but have found them to be sort of easily pierced and they start weeping. At home I have three 33 gallon blue plastic barrels as well as numerous 5 gallon Scepter water cans, 50 gallon water heater, bottled water, 20 gallons stored in the bug out trailer and so on. Enough to get me through quite a number of back-2-back FEMA "72 hour" scenarios.
There are without a doubt better choices than the jugs i referenced. That said I use these to illustrate to people I know that prepping is not expensive and can actually be cheaper (even if they last only one hurricane season) than panic buying. :)
I've got 6 gallon rigid plastic water jugs from camping and earthquake preps. ( The kind that look like blue gas cans. A quick perusal of amazon,some surplus sites and wally world show these things have gotten a lot more expensive. So I looked for some other rigid plastic containers to hold water that aren't as expensive ( since you will be buying mutiples for every person in household and then extras )
https://www.walmart.com/ip/American-Mai ... e/51200565 comes with resealable lid and they also have siphon pumps that fit the opening to pump the water out. ( The pump costs more than the container)
Looking for something cheaper in price I remembered these http://www.homedepot.com/p/United-Solut ... /300233662 $5.77 with a lid for a rigid container that should last for years. Easy to clean too.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by NamelessStain » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:57 am

Halfapint wrote:Not to make light of the hurricanes, but this song has been playing a lot on my Pandora mix.



Good song about the resilience of hurricane regions.
Just as I read this, Riding the Storm out by REO Speedwagon played on my ipod at work. Looks like fate has told me to bug in.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by JayceSlayn » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:23 am

flybynight wrote:
raptor wrote:
teotwaki wrote:
raptor wrote: This is storable and reusable even if you use it. Simply empty it dry it out and pack it away for the next 5 hurricane seasons.
https://smile.amazon.com/Coleman-5-Gall ... ter+bottle
I have those for camping but have found them to be sort of easily pierced and they start weeping. At home I have three 33 gallon blue plastic barrels as well as numerous 5 gallon Scepter water cans, 50 gallon water heater, bottled water, 20 gallons stored in the bug out trailer and so on. Enough to get me through quite a number of back-2-back FEMA "72 hour" scenarios.
There are without a doubt better choices than the jugs i referenced. That said I use these to illustrate to people I know that prepping is not expensive and can actually be cheaper (even if they last only one hurricane season) than panic buying. :)
I've got 6 gallon rigid plastic water jugs from camping and earthquake preps. ( The kind that look like blue gas cans. A quick perusal of amazon,some surplus sites and wally world show these things have gotten a lot more expensive. So I looked for some other rigid plastic containers to hold water that aren't as expensive ( since you will be buying mutiples for every person in household and then extras )
https://www.walmart.com/ip/American-Mai ... e/51200565 comes with resealable lid and they also have siphon pumps that fit the opening to pump the water out. ( The pump costs more than the container)
Looking for something cheaper in price I remembered these http://www.homedepot.com/p/United-Solut ... /300233662 $5.77 with a lid for a rigid container that should last for years. Easy to clean too.
Just thought I should remind those looking for non-standard water containers: not all plastic buckets/containers/etc. are likely to be food grade rated. While I'd call your overall risk while using them in the rare, emergency use case fairly low (and having water is better than not in such cases), if you can, make sure any containers you use for long-term water and food storage are food grade. I've successfully found food grade buckets and lids for free, by asking local groceries or bakeries for empty buckets. They get them for frosting, butter, etc. and are usually willing to part with them for free, because otherwise they just recycle them.
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by teotwaki » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:30 am

A pretty decent 7 gallon container is made by Reliance and they are usually found on Walmart shelves and also Amazon for $15. Blue colored cube with an air vent and hideaway spigot.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B001QC31G6/re ... 9679368222
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:33 am

teotwaki wrote:A pretty decent 7 gallon container is made by Reliance and they are usually found on Walmart shelves and also Amazon for $15. Blue colored cube with an air vent and hideaway spigot.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B001QC31G6/re ... 9679368222
I have 2 of them. Reviews are mixed. :|

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by Old_Man » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:47 am

Great breakdown of the tropics with lots of graphics. Spann is a great weather nerd to follow. https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=143952

Stores here in NE FL are beginning to have difficulty keeping up with demand for water and fuel. Walmart and Sams Club Gas ran out of both with shipments supposed to be in by this morning. Local grocery giant Publix and fuel supplier Gate seen to still be able to keep stocks. Lines for fuel and propane have gotten quite long here (impact not until Monday).


Update:
FL Gov Scott live now. Activated entire NG. Miami/Dade is begining evac. Keys have already started.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by dogbane » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:15 am

The latest map from Weather Underground:
Image

Jose is coming up behind Irma. Oh, and TS 13 has formed off of Veracruz.
Mostly not here anymore.

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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:19 am

[/quote]

There are without a doubt better choices than the jugs i referenced. That said I use these to illustrate to people I know that prepping is not expensive and can actually be cheaper (even if they last only one hurricane season) than panic buying. :)[/quote]

I've got 6 gallon rigid plastic water jugs from camping and earthquake preps. ( The kind that look like blue gas cans. A quick perusal of amazon,some surplus sites and wally world show these things have gotten a lot more expensive. So I looked for some other rigid plastic containers to hold water that aren't as expensive ( since you will be buying mutiples for every person in household and then extras )
https://www.walmart.com/ip/American-Mai ... e/51200565 comes with resealable lid and they also have siphon pumps that fit the opening to pump the water out. ( The pump costs more than the container)
Looking for something cheaper in price I remembered these http://www.homedepot.com/p/United-Solut ... /300233662 $5.77 with a lid for a rigid container that should last for years. Easy to clean too.[/quote]
Just thought I should remind those looking for non-standard water containers: not all plastic buckets/containers/etc. are likely to be food grade rated. While I'd call your overall risk while using them in the rare, emergency use case fairly low (and having water is better than not in such cases), if you can, make sure any containers you use for long-term water and food storage are food grade. I've successfully found food grade buckets and lids for free, by asking local groceries or bakeries for empty buckets. They get them for frosting, butter, etc. and are usually willing to part with them for free, because otherwise they just recycle them.[/quote]

I had to edit my post because the first 5 gal bucket I linked, when I checked the link I then noticed it said " not food grade" . The link up now states in description for transporting water. So while not specifically stating it's food grade, it doesn't specifically state it's not. Like the first one I linked. :crazy:
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by teotwaki » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:58 am

MPMalloy wrote:
teotwaki wrote:A pretty decent 7 gallon container is made by Reliance and they are usually found on Walmart shelves and also Amazon for $15. Blue colored cube with an air vent and hideaway spigot.
I have 2 of them. Reviews are mixed. :|
There is a ZS water container thread here: viewtopic.php?f=100&t=113238
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by BloodLust » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:21 am

I'm in touch with some friends who now live in Florida. As luck would have it, they were living in New York when Sandy hit.

I keep a rotation of the 5gal/20L water jugs.
Since there are kids and elderly in the household, lifting the jugs onto a dispenser would be difficult for them so I got the pumps so the jugs wouldn't have to be lifted. Just install the pump even if they are on the floor.
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Also some of the blue 5gal container with the spigot which I put on the countertops near the sinks when washing stuff is needed (hands, utensils, etc.).
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I have 67mg Aquatabs which are good for treating 5gal/20L so the container capacity is matched to the dosage.
Last edited by BloodLust on Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Erik wrote:First of all, I doubt your body is a weapon and if you threatened me with your body, I'd pull out a real weapon and see which is more effective.
Bear_B wrote: I am not too worried about the bullet with my name on it... its the bullets flying around with question marks on them that worry me.

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flybynight
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Re: Hurricanes 2017

Post by flybynight » Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:39 am

Not all those who wander are lost

John Titor was right

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