Lots of sick kids

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by SCBrian » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:44 pm

duodecima wrote:
spanningtree wrote:
SCBrian wrote:
whisk.e.rebellion wrote:

There's no recorded outbreak of HEV 68 in Mexico or Central America. Any blame laid on immigrants is pure speculation bordering on fear mongering.
Can I use the "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" argument? My grammar skills are not what they should be, so I'm uncertain?
These links both point to the same non-polarized article. Pretty easy, > 5 minute search. Make what you want out of it but be careful of getting slapped with the racist and fear mongering label.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3854537/

http://www.virologyj.com/content/10/1/305
So, then you get to read the article. Which says, among all the many different viruses sampled
We also identified low numbers of EtV-D68, which has been associated with respiraory disease by others [10], although never in the countries of our study.
Which lends credence to the fact that these viruses, which have always existed here in the US as well and not seemed to cause much illness, also existed in South/Central America as well in low numbers and not seeming to cause much illness. It fails to offer any support for the idea that this strain of that virus came from South/Central America rather than Europe, Africa, or Utah. (I pick Utah because I believe they had one of the early clusters?)

I have more to say but need to go back to work now, be back tonite.

Same article:
Results

Our subjects had a median age of 3 years and a 1.2:1.0 male:female ratio. HRV was identified in 16% and HEV was identified in 3%. HRVs accounted for a higher frequency of isolates in those of younger age, in particular children < 1 years old. HRV-C accounted for 38% of all HRVs detected. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a high proportion of recombinant strains between HRV-A/HRV-C and between HEV-A/HEV-B. In addition, both EV-D68 and EV-A71 were identified
Did they or didn't they, in the citation above [10] it links to an Asian study that also found evD68
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by spanningtree » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:48 pm

It's been found in quite a few places, including South America.


Here is an interesting abstract, maybe from China?: http://jmm.sgmjournals.org/content/63/Pt_3/408.abstract
Another one, maybe from France?: http://jcm.asm.org/content/51/2/640.abstract

I don't think in the original article I posted they were looking at what happened to the patient in depth. Their abstract basically states they received swabs from ~3000 folks under 25 and here is what we found after analysis of the swabs.

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by DannusMaximus » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:02 pm

duodecima wrote: Your local neighbors who can't afford to see a doctor, or who choose not to vaccinate, or send their kid to daycare sick because they can't afford to miss work, or who don't wash their hands after going to the rest room, are a much bigger at least as big of a threat to your health than as some kid who just moved in with their aunt.
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by jnathan » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:08 pm

So if I Can help out with some statistics here, a p value of .03 (i.e. 3% had HEVs from the cited article Human rhinoviruses and enteroviruses in influenza-like illness in Latin America) is not reliable as a data point... Most scientifically reliable research would state a P value that low is part of the null hypothesis or more simply stated, part of the statistical error.

Another thing is that we can cite studies all day long, including those in journals. After all there are A: open access journals with poor peer review where the barrier to entry is more paying for publication rather than the quality of the research, B: a multitude of peer-reviewed papers that are never replicated (depending on the discipline) and C: published papers that are later retracted when their conclusions can't be independently replicated.

Science encourages vigorous debate and repeated attempts to falsify (read: disprove) theories. Science adjusts its views based on what's observed, and as laymen the best we can do is to accept the scientific consensus. If none exists, laymen are lost determining which papers carry weight and which don't.

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:17 pm

So, based on the above links, EV-D68 has been found historically (in the last decade) in North America, South America, Central America, and Asia. The studies spanningtree linked were done in FY 2011 (OCT 2010-OCT2011), not this year, and in similar years we have two more studies reporting on HEV-68 in China and France.

So, again, where's the smoking gun that points to Central America? Because it looks like there are several possibilities that point to this being not specifically related, given that we've confirmed that it's been sighted on four continents (at least) and there's no evidence linking HEV-D68 to Central American immigration.
jnathan wrote:So if I Can help out with some statistics here, a p value of .03 (i.e. 3% had HEVs from the cited article Human rhinoviruses and enteroviruses in influenza-like illness in Latin America) is not reliable as a data point... Most scientifically reliable research would state a P value that low is part of the null hypothesis or more simply stated, part of the statistical error.
Statistical-noise-level P-values aside, it's just as likely that HEV-D68 was passed to central America by US vacationers, or brought back by the same. Or the two disease populations, which are tiny, are also unrelated.
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by WutsFrequencyKeneth » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:29 pm

Can I make a suggestion?

The Ferguson thread was one of the better sources of condensed information that was pretty well up to date. Repeatedly people tried to offer conjecture on the cause of the disaster and the background of it, and were, repeatedly, told not to, with posts being removed, deleted, or banished however they were.

Could we do that here? I would be interested in this groups ability to pull the real information out of the media wildfire and establish the reality of the situation and how to deal with the disaster.

Instead, we have 3 pages of swinging dicks arguing over where it came from. It doesn't matter. It's here. What do we do?

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by crypto » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:40 pm

WutsFrequencyKeneth wrote:Can I make a suggestion?

The Ferguson thread was one of the better sources of condensed information that was pretty well up to date. Repeatedly people tried to offer conjecture on the cause of the disaster and the background of it, and were, repeatedly, told not to, with posts being removed, deleted, or banished however they were.

Could we do that here? I would be interested in this groups ability to pull the real information out of the media wildfire and establish the reality of the situation and how to deal with the disaster.

Instead, we have 3 pages of swinging dicks arguing over where it came from. It doesn't matter. It's here. What do we do?

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by raistlin » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:51 pm

Old_Man wrote:
Mikeyboy wrote: Going off topic for a second, I agree it SEEMS more kids have more issues with things like Asthma and allergies then in past generations. However I don't know if there is a direct factor like more pollution or kids do not get outside as much as in the past, or if its just a misguided perception that maybe its a combo of lack of diagnosis and treatment back in the day.
Agreed. I does seem as if asthma, allergies, etc. are far more prevalent than in years past. Im too ignorant to know if indeed this is the case, or nature is trying to become more nasty because we keep thwarting the natural population controls.
I would guess probably a combination of environmental factors AND evolution. My asthma and allergy issues when I was a kid were severe enough that I would have probably died in childhood had I been born 100 years earlier. And this is a consequence of advanced medicine. Think of childhood asthma as a genetic mutation that would have been almost continuously eliminated by natural selection. Until the last 50 to 100 years.
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by Old_Man » Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:24 am

The sooner people accept that most diseases around the world will eventually find their way around the world, the sooner it can be dealt with. Invasive species are a great example.

I remember working with USDA and USFS on the Ambrosia beetle. A tiny little beetle from Asia that farms its own fungus, usually in dying trees. It arrived accidentally on a shipment of exotic wood to SC. Within 4 yrs most coastal RedBay trees from SC to Florida were dead or dying due to the trees reacting to the fungus and killing itself in response to trying to stop the spread of the fungus. Once realized that stopping the spread was futile, an aggressive seed banking campaign was embarked upon in hopes the invasion would burn itself out and then trees could be repopulated.

Basically the moral of the story is, the arrival cannot be stopped regardless of origin, best to plan ahead to deal with mitigating spread and/or have a good recovery plan. The sooner people embrace the better. I cannot stop the arrival of a hurricane, but I can get out of the way or make it work harder to mess with me, as well as ensure I will survive and rebuild.

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by DooooMeD » Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:53 pm

Lots of good info developing from this topic, thank you!

To answer a few questions that were posed directly to me:
I refer to the RSOE EDIS map simply because it is a collection site for news. It hasn't shown any political leanings, there aren't commercials, and there doesn't appear to be any slant at all. It's just a collection of information that has not been through the ratings filter. Oh yeah, and it was popping info alerts on Fukushima from news sources outside the U.S. at least a day (closer to 2) before the national media even homed in on it.

Next:
Deriding me for the link to a "news" outlet....I'm pretty sure I posted "(just one of multiple links resultant from a search)". There were a LOT of them, and I just grabbed one from the top of the list. If you doubt the credibility, find another link that's either Pro/Con.


Lastly:
In my posing the question of whether it is a distribution test....I should have been more specific in my wording. As it's written, one can infer that I meant that the infection started south of the border and was carried onward from there. MY BAD. Sorry the phrasing ruffled so many feathers.

Now, lest anyone think my paranoia is slipping.....
The current Ebola epidemic is the big scary thing in the closet. Could it be weaponized? Maybe. How would it be delivered here? Several possibilities. What's a good way to see what kind of distribution routes are in the country (In order to see how something spreads across regions and demographics)? Hmm....asking ppl to get infected for an experiment?....not gonna happen. What about infecting a group that is about to be "redistributed" with a relatively harmless, yet easily identified virus that doesn't typically have a high incidence rate, and then looking for reports of it cropping up? Would that work? No harm, no foul, and you get to see how quickly a bug spreads. Reverse engineer the routes, look for the choke points, and you end up with a decent plan to stop the spread of an aerosol transmissible bug that IS bad and gets smuggled into the country, then released in a population center.
No....no one would ever do that. No one could possibly read a Tom Clancy novel and use the plot devices as actual plans. (similarity between Debt of Honor and 9-11 attacks....and, hey...wasn't an Ebola attack in one of those books?) Nor would anyone delete emails, refuse access for investigations, lie on the witness stand, etc. Nope, never gonna happen.

Incidentally, I do hope I'm inspiring some thoughts here. Yes, some of it is fairly far fetched, but if I'm thinking them, who else might be?

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by crypto » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:14 pm

I..

I do not think that is credible, or feasible.
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by WutsFrequencyKeneth » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:16 pm

I severely doubt the baseless speculation of furthest-extreme, paranoid even, malicious intent to be of any value to the current situation.

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by Towanda » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:55 pm

See, there are reasons why what Tom Clancy wrote is called fiction.

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by DooooMeD » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:02 pm

WutsFrequencyKeneth wrote:I severely doubt the baseless speculation of furthest-extreme, paranoid even, malicious intent to be of any value to the current situation.
I don't know...It's entertaining, at the least, so there has to be some sort of value associated with it. Otherwise, there wouldn't be any readers of this topic. :clownshoes:

And I never said what Tom Clancy wrote wasn't fiction....but he DID write non-fiction as well. I simply inferred that his plot device of crashing a jumbo jet into the capitol building was the inspiration for a bunch of nut jobs to hijack and crash several planes into buildings on 9-11.

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by Towanda » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:16 pm

Infer and imply are not synonyms. What you're doing is fear-mongering and you need to knock it off.

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by cricky101 » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:19 pm

DooooMeD wrote:
WutsFrequencyKeneth wrote:I severely doubt the baseless speculation of furthest-extreme, paranoid even, malicious intent to be of any value to the current situation.
I don't know...It's entertaining, at the least, so there has to be some sort of value associated with it. Otherwise, there wouldn't be any readers of this topic. :clownshoes:

And I never said what Tom Clancy wrote wasn't fiction....but he DID write non-fiction as well. I simply inferred that his plot device of crashing a jumbo jet into the capitol building was the inspiration for a bunch of nut jobs to hijack and crash several planesinto buildings on 9-11.
Weird how all those WWII kamikaze pilots managed to come up with the idea of weaponizing planes without a Tom Clancy novel to read.
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by shrapnel » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:23 pm

Please get back on topic, everyone.
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by TacAir » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:28 pm

crypto wrote:I..

I do not think that is credible, or feasible.

Oddly, the '68 flu outbreak was claimed by more than a few folks to be a weapons test.
The flu outbreak AKA, as the HOng Kong flu - millions died.

As for the weapons testing bit...
Throughout its history, the U.S. bioweapons program was secret. It became controversial when it was later revealed that laboratory and field testing (some of the latter using simulants on non-consenting individuals) had been common. The official policy of the United States was first to deter the use of bio-weapons against U.S. forces and secondarily to retaliate if deterrence failed. There exists no evidence that the U.S. ever used biological agents against an enemy in the field (see below for alleged uses).

In 1969, President Richard Nixon ended all offensive (i.e., non-defensive) aspects of the U.S. bio-weapons program. In 1975 the U.S. ratified both the 1925 Geneva Protocol and the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)—international treaties outlawing biological warfare. Recent U.S. biodefense programs, however, have raised concerns that the U.S. may be pursuing research that is outlawed by the BWC.

I'm NOT going to post any of the rabid conspiracy crap, you can look that up for yourself, if you have any intrest. The seeming world-wide appearance of the HK flu has fed the conspiracy mill for decades....

So, credible? Based on our own (US) history, it is. Is the current -68 virus "outbreak" such a test - very doubtful.


History may not repeat itself, but it sure echos....


Now, back on task - First Confirmed Case of Enterovirus D68 in New Jersey (9/17)
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:26 am

DooooMeD wrote:SNIP

And I never said what Tom Clancy wrote wasn't fiction....but he DID write non-fiction as well. I simply inferred that his plot device of crashing a jumbo jet into the capitol building was the inspiration for a bunch of nut jobs to hijack and crash several planes into buildings on 9-11.
Stephen King did in first in his novel "the Running Man" under the pen name Richard Bachman. The book was nothing like the Ah-nuld movie.
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by airballrad » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:44 am

shrapnel wrote:Please get back on topic, everyone.
Pretty Please.

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by TacAir » Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:33 pm

SoCal now hit...

The most populated US state confirmed its first batch of cases of the disease that has been spreading across the country, causing severe respiratory problems in infants and young children, according to the state’s chief health official.

Four children, ranging in age from 2 to 13 and all from Southern California, have confirmed cases of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68). One of the patients is from Ventura County; the others are from San Diego County.

AND

On Wednesday the Washington Post reported that 16 states had reported cases of the respiratory illness. But only hours later, New Jersey also announced it had found some cases quickly bringing that number up to 17. Then Minnesota became the 18th state later that same day.

The outbreak has been growing since at least mid-August.

The CDC confirms that children are most susceptible to D68 because their immune systems are not yet developed enough to beat the virus.

Also, the CDC says children with asthma seem to have a higher risk for severe respiratory illness.

There are currently no vaccines for D68 and doctors suggest that those at risk keep their hands clean, avoid touching their faces, avoid kissing and hugging, and disinfect frequently touched surfaces such as counters, tables, and even toys.

So far, cases of D68 have been seen in Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Least you thin it confined to just the US - think again

Right now, the Public Health Agency of Canada has its hands full with testing. While cases in Alberta and B.C. each have confirmed cases, clusters of mild and severe illnesses are popping up in other provinces.

Starting to sound like the SARS outbreak....
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by Valarius » Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:59 pm

Consume plenty of fresh fruit and vegetables.

Bundle up if it's cold outside, and drink lots of hot, decaffeinated liquid such as herbal tea.

Turn off the internet and get lots of sleep.

Minimize or halt drug consumption, including alcohol, marijuana and tobacco.

Always wash your hands before eating, after going to the bathroom and at every opportunity hot water and soap presents itself.

Cover your mouth every time you sneeze or cough.

If you can't afford to wash handkerchiefs or buy disposable tissues all the time, take an extra square of a paper towel or toilet paper, fold it up and place it in your back pocket; you can use it to grab door handles or anywhere else people routinely touch objects.

Take your keyboard and turn it upside down over a trash can, shaking out all the crap, then apply disinfectant spray.

Take your mouse/gaming controller and use a sharp edge to scrap all the skin cells away from the plastic grooves, over a trash can, then apply disinfectant spray.

Repeat treatment for all surfaces of your car.

Clean your house, keep it clean, and mop your house using hot soapy water with a light amount of bleach.

Always wash your hands before eating, after going to the bathroom and at every opportunity hot water and soap presents itself.

Minimize physical contact with sick people.

This is how you can keep healthy during flu season and every other time of a viral outbreak.
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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by Mikeyboy » Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:40 pm

airballrad wrote:
shrapnel wrote:Please get back on topic, everyone.
Pretty Please.
How did this devolve into talk about Tom Clancy & Stephen King...you know what nevermind.

Anyway CDC confirmed 68 is in Virginia now, and Tacair is saying its in SoCal. Its basically coast to coast now. If you are in the US and its not in your neck of the woods yet, its just a matter of time. Same with other parts of the world, air travel will spread it around globally.

That said are we all gonna die....no

However if you have a kid under the age of 18 with real bad Asthma, just have them observe the usual cold/flu precautions.

1) Avoid sick people (duh)
2) wash your hands regularly
3) avoid sharing food or drinks, water fountains, touching things that may have been touched by sick people, etc
4) avoid touching your eyes, mouth, and nose unless your hands are clean.
5) If you get sick see a doctor, if there is ANY MAJOR difficulty breathing and wheezing, get to the hospital.

For the rest of us its nothing more than a funky cold. If you have cold symptoms, just avoid kids with Asthma. For kids with bad Asthma who don't have previous exposure to the virus, it CAN be something more significant. The ones that have problems breathing, if they get to the hospital, they will be fine.

http://www.wtop.com/41/3704026/CDC-conf ... ness-in-Va

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Re: Lots of sick kids

Post by jnathan » Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:20 pm

I need to come clean here and explain that I whiffed hard while taking a swing at applying p-value to the cited publication. Not only did I completely incorrectly attempt to apply a p-value to a measurement study where no predictions were made, I inverted the meaning of a P-value if one had been appropriate for the study in the first place.

Mea culpa!

Back on topic if that's possible...

People with suppressed immune systems or underdeveloped immune systems, like children, are those likely to be affected by EV-D68 so I think one of the best things a parent can do is to monitor the health of their children. Do your best to ensure they're maintaining proper hygiene, make sure they're eating well and getting enough rest. If they develop symptoms speak with your physician and if they need to be seen sooner bring them to an urgent care facility. If possible, try to cover their mouth with one of those paper masks available at most (all?) hospitals and health clinics to further limit the spread during a visit with an nurse practitioner or physician.

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jnathan wrote:So if I Can help out with some statistics here, a p value of .03 (i.e. 3% had HEVs from the cited article Human rhinoviruses and enteroviruses in influenza-like illness in Latin America) is not reliable as a data point... Most scientifically reliable research would state a P value that low is part of the null hypothesis or more simply stated, part of the statistical error.

Another thing is that we can cite studies all day long, including those in journals. After all there are A: open access journals with poor peer review where the barrier to entry is more paying for publication rather than the quality of the research, B: a multitude of peer-reviewed papers that are never replicated (depending on the discipline) and C: published papers that are later retracted when their conclusions can't be independently replicated.

Science encourages vigorous debate and repeated attempts to falsify (read: disprove) theories. Science adjusts its views based on what's observed, and as laymen the best we can do is to accept the scientific consensus. If none exists, laymen are lost determining which papers carry weight and which don't.

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