Things Headed South in Iraq

[Stercutus]

Ah forgot my reason for posting... In underwhelming news coverage the US is now sending troops into Syria BOG...

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s ... al-n454506

President Barack Obama has authorized a contingent of less than 50 commandos to deploy into northern Syria and work with moderate opposition forces who are fighting the militants.

While the White House has consistently said it would not put U.S. boots on the ground, spokesman Josh Earnest insisted that they will be there in a "train, advise and assist mission" — and not in a combat role.

"It will not be their responsibility to lead the charge up the hill," he said. But he acknowledged they will be in a perilous situation: "There is no denying the amount of risk they are taking on here."

It is just a few SOF guys right?

[flybynight]

Ah forgot my reason for posting... In underwhelming news coverage the US is now sending troops into Syria BOG...

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s ... al-n454506

President Barack Obama has authorized a contingent of less than 50 commandos to deploy into northern Syria and work with moderate opposition forces who are fighting the militants.

While the White House has consistently said it would not put U.S. boots on the ground, spokesman Josh Earnest insisted that they will be there in a "train, advise and assist mission" — and not in a combat role.

"It will not be their responsibility to lead the charge up the hill," he said. But he acknowledged they will be in a perilous situation: "There is no denying the amount of risk they are taking on here."

It is just a few SOF guys right?

Supporting the forces in opposition to the forces being supported by Russia. Heck yea what could go wrong?

[Boondock]

I read some of the news reports on this Syria deployment and I think it sounds like a load of hooey.

[raptor]

Edited for clarity:

Please, we need to avoid politics. This thread appears to be heading in that direction.

[SCBrian]

Redacted (seems to be a popular phrase today)

[raptor]

This thread appears to be heading in the direction of politics with the mention of the POTUS, White House and now Russia.

I am simply looking for cooperation to keep this very political subject within bounds and hence open. My intent was not to call out anyone, it was a request not a warning and my post has been edited accordingly.

[Stercutus]

The actions of the state are indeed political. I don't really have much commentary or opinion on their actions other than to point to an expansion of the conflict into another state by the US military. This will have consequences for the US as well as the effected countries and a number of countries in Europe and Asia.

The conflict in Syria is now inexorably tied to Iraq due to the Caliphate. Many of the actors fled Iraq to Syria before, during, after, and during (again) US involvement in Iraq.

[flybynight]

This thread appears to be heading in the direction of politics with the mention of the POTUS, White House and now Russia.

I am simply looking for cooperation to keep this very political subject within bounds and hence open. My intent was not to call out anyone, it was a request not a warning and my post has been edited accordingly.

would it help if you merged it with the world war 3 could start tomorrow thread?

[raptor]

A Russian airliner crashed on Sinai killing 200+ people. Isis claimed responsibility but officials are saying there were other problems.

It is too early to tell at this point. However, if it was downed by ISIS there will be a lot more trouble.

[raistlin]

A Russian airliner crashed on Sinai killing 200+ people. Isis claimed responsibility but officials are saying there were other problems.

It is too early to tell at this point. However, if it was downed by ISIS there will be a lot more trouble.

No doubt. The Russian military response would likely be brutal.

[raptor]

More on the airbus. Still to early to say but it looks like an R&M issue is more likely than ISIS. However, it will take days to analyze the data recorders.

Links to Articles:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2 ... sinai-live

The plane apparently broke up at 31,000 feet.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/o ... an-pm-says

Airbus said the A321-200 that crashed was 18 years old, had made almost 21,000 flights and accrued about 56,000 flight hours. It had been operated by the Russian airline since 2012.

Kogalymavia, which owns Metrojet, said there were “no grounds” to blame the incident on human error. Russian state media reported that the crew had complained to officials earlier this week about the state of the plane, claiming it should not be flown due to technical issues.

“This aircraft appealed to the technical service in connection with engine start failure several times over the past week before this,” a source told the RIA agency.

That said Air France and Lufthansa are not flying over Sinai.

http://news.yahoo.com/lufthansa-air-fra ... nance.html

Two of Europe's largest airlines have decided to avoid flying over the Sinai peninsula while they wait for clarity on what caused a Russian airliner carrying 224 passengers to crash in the area on Saturday.

German carrier Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have decided to avoid the area for safety reasons, spokeswomen for the carriers said on Saturday.

"We took the decision to avoid the area because the situation and the reasons for the crash were not clear," a Lufthansa spokeswoman said. "We will continue to avoid the area until it is clear what caused the crash."

[raptor]

A $50 million reward is being offered.


http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/17/middleeas ... index.html

(CNN)The Russian passenger jet that crashed over Sinai, Egypt, was brought down by a bomb estimated to contain 1 kilogram (2.2 pounds) of explosives, the head of the Russian Federal Security Service said Tuesday, and the Russian government is offering a $50 million reward for information about those who brought it down.

The government had initially resisted the theory that the plane fell victim to terrorism, perhaps in retaliation for Russia's support of the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

But in a turnaround, the government is offering the reward, according to the official Sputnik news.

Russia Pounds ISIS With Biggest Bomber Raid in Decades

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... cades.html

The Russian air force just pulled off one of the biggest and most complex heavy bomber missions in modern history—sending no fewer than 25 Backfire, Bear, and Blackjack bombers on a coordinated, long-range air raid against alleged ISIS forces in Syria.

The Tuesday mission, which launched under the cover of darkness from a base in Ossetia in southern Russia, signaled a significant escalation of Moscow’s air war in Syria—and heralded the rebirth of Russian heavy bomber squadrons that once had withered from a lack of funding.

Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s general staff, announced the raid on Tuesday, calling it part of “a new plan [for] the air campaign.”

“During a massive airstrike today, 14 important ISIL targets were destroyed by 34 air-launched cruise missiles,” Gerasimov said, using an alternative acronym for the terror army. “The targets destroyed include command posts that were used to coordinate ISIL activities in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, munition and supply depots in the northwestern part of Syria.”

Idlib and Aleppo are not ISIS strongholds. Indeed, U.S.-backed rebels hold much of both provinces. Russia has maintained all along that its roughly six-week-old intervention in Syria is aimed at defeating ISIS, but in fact many Russian air and missile strikes have hit rebel groups that oppose Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and ISIS.
Russian officials notified U.S. planners at a coalition headquarters in Qatar before the strike, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said. It was the first time the Russians and Americans have put into action an October agreement to coordinate their countries' respective operations in Syria.
The raid came of the same day that Kremlin officials publicly announced that a “terrorist act” brought down Russian Metrojet 9268 last month over the Sinai Peninsula. ISIS has since taken credit for the attack.

The Russian defense ministry released a video depicting three types of bombers arming, taking off, dropping munitions and then returning to base, escorted along their flight paths by Su-27 fighters.

The swing-wing, jet-propelled Tu-22M Backfires apparently carried unguided “dumb” bombs. The videos depicts airmen loading clusters of cruise missiles in the bomb bays of the propeller-driven Tu-95 Bears and the huge, swing-wing Tu-160 Blackjack jets, which at 177 feet long are the biggest combat planes ever built.

All three models of bomber can fly thousands of miles while hauling no less than 20 tons of weaponry. Only China and the United States possess similar heavy warplanes.

Launching 25 bombers on one mission is an impressive undertaking. Russia possesses just 70 Backfires, 58 Bears and 13 Blackjacks. The 14 Backfires, six Bears, and five Blackjacks that reportedly struck Syria represent a significant proportion of the overall fleet. The massive raid is evidence of improving readiness on the part of the Russian air force, which in the 1990s and early 2000s grounded most of its aircraft because it couldn’t afford to fuel them or pay their pilots.

By comparison, on any given day 57 of the U.S. Air Force's 77 B-52s, 35 of its 60 B-1s and nine of its 20 B-2 stealth bombers are even flyable, according to statistics from 2013.

The Tuesday mission signaled a significant escalation of Moscow’s air war in Syria—and heralded the rebirth of Russian heavy bomber squadrons that once had withered from a lack of funding.
And when they do fly, America’s bombers often sortie alone or in pairs, only rarely coming together in large numbers. Seven B-52s flew together to launch cruise missiles at Iraq in the early hours of Operation Desert Storm in 1991, and a group of eight of the giant warplanes repeated the feat on the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom in March 2003.

In other words: This Russian attack was “shock and awe”—on steroids.

Russia’s bomber raid was certainly impressive, and has propaganda value in addition to bolstering Moscow’s operations in Syria. When 25 of the planet’s most powerful warplanes attack at the same time, it’s more than a mere air raid. It’s a statement to the whole world.

[Stercutus]

Looks like the Russians and the French will be stepping up in the vacuum left by the US/UK policy of limited/ non-involvement.

I am willing to bet if ISIS attacks other countries they most likely will join the fight if able.

[raptor]

ISIS claimed the explosive that took down the Russian Airbus was this device.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/18/middleeas ... index.html



I would note that this is a claim from ISIS and should be treated as such in terms of credibility.

I am no explosives expert but this looks a bit small to have broken up the airliner but then again since the plane was at altitude and speed anything that would have significantly compromised the structure of the aircraft would have both of these working to break up the plane.

[DarkAxel]

...snip...
I am no explosives expert but this looks a bit small to have broken up the airliner but then again since the plane was at altitude and speed anything that would have significantly compromised the structure of the aircraft would have both of these working to break up the plane.

Yup. Don't forget also that the airplane in question had been repaired after a tail strike. I would not be surprised if the investigation reveals that those repairs were a factor in a bomb that small bringing down the plane.

[Stercutus]

If that thing were in say the fuel tank when it went off then it would be game over. Short of that IDK. I am no expert either.

[Asymetryczna]

I ask myself how to respond in words that are not political on this topic but I cannot.
This leads me to the artist, who can accept/deny that his work means what you think it means.
Musicians are artists.
Musicians play music.
Some music comes with lyrics.
Lyrics are words.
I arrive at a solution.

When you get to the bottom
you go back
to the top
of the slide
where you sit
and you turn
and you go for a ride
to the bottom
where I'll see you again.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Helter Skelter.

Charles Manson stole this song from the Beatles and look at the result.
A playground for some.

[Stercutus]

Now they have gone and pissed off China:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/18/asia/isis ... index.html

Keep yanking on the Dragon's tail boys it is almost ready to give up.

[NamelessStain]

Interesting graphics in this link:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... e-attacks/

[raptor]

Not exactly Iran but the fallout from this will be interesting.


http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=445975

Dozens of Russian generals at a military base near the eastern Syrian city of Latakia were killed Sunday afternoon in a deadly car bomb attack committed by two opposition factions, Ahrar al-Sham and Bayan movement, Syrian opposition groups reported on Wednesday.

According to the media office of Ahrar al-Sham, the two factions, in coordination with local jihadists who were located at the Russian military base, decided to bomb the car after they observed a gathering of senior Russian generals at the military base.

Ahrar al-Sham claims that dozens of Russian generals were killed and injured in the explosion. According to the movement, the announcement of the terror attack was delayed until Wednesday to ensure that the jihadists who committed the attack returned safely to opposition territories.

The military base that was hit by the car bomb is considered one of the most important military centers of the Russian forces on the Syrian coast, located some 15 kilometers from Latakia.

The belated announcement of the car bombing came shortly before the Syrian truce was scheduled to start on Saturday. Russia and the US have already announced that the ceasefire will not apply to ISIS and al-Nusra Front, but in light of this terror attack, Russia might demand the exclusion of Ahrar al-Sham as well.

Edited to add:
I am not vouching for the veracity of the story. However, if true it is likely to really piss off the Russians.

[Stercutus]

Russia might demand the exclusion of Ahrar al-Sham as well

If the report is true it is going to be a bit more than that. Like "better watch out" more than that. This coupled with the MH17 release is going to make for an interesting series of responses.

[Stercutus]

It is like it is deja vu all over again....

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/20/politics/ ... index.html

The rugged location for now has a "couple of hundred" Marines living in tents near Makhmour in northern Iraq. It's assumed ISIS observed the Marines moving into the area and saw them firing practice rounds with their howitzers, the official said.

ISIS on Saturday fired two rockets from about 15 km away. One fell inside the base killing one Marine and wounding several others. The Marines returned fire with their artillery.

On Sunday, the Pentagon identified the slain Marine as Staff Sgt. Louis F. Cardin, of Temecula, California. Cardin was assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment, 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, the Pentagon said.

The Pentagon has yet to formally acknowledge it has established its first U.S. fire base in Iraq in the current fight against ISIS for what the official said will eventually be a limited ground combat operation in support of the Iraqis.

It seems that the location of the "secret" base has only been kept secret from people in countries other than where it was located. Wonder why it would be a secret?

It is only just a "limited ground combat operation in support" now right? Of course right.

[sheddi]

It is like it is deja vu all over again...

"History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes."

The rugged location for now has a "couple of hundred" Marines living in tents near Makhmour in northern Iraq.

Makhmour has been in the news recently for other reasons (I can't vouch for the source but it passes the duck test).

2 brigades of Iraqi army arrive in Makhmour to liberate Mosul
http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/2-bri ... iberation/

Nineveh – The Provincial Council of Nineveh announced on Wednesday the arrival of two brigades of the army’s 15th division in the headquarters of Nineveh Operations south of Mosul, while expected the arrival of other forces in the coming days to prepare for the liberation operation of Mosul.

The head of the security committee in Nineveh Council Mohammed al-Bayati said in a statement followed by IraqiNews.com, “Two brigades of the army’s 15th division arrived in Nineveh Operations headquarters in Makhmour area in preparation to begin the liberation operation of the city of Mosul.”

Bayati added, “The coming days will witness the arrival of more brigades and regiments to complete the preparations of the liberation operation to retake Mosul from ISIS.”

My guess would be that the USMC are there to support the Iraqi ground forces in their long-delayed attempt to re-take Mosul.

See also: http://www.iraqinews.com/?s=Makhmour

Also this VOA news clip:

[Stercutus]

The other shoe is starting to drop.

It is just a few.... never mind

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04 ... cmp=hplnws

It will take a coalition of 50,000 troops on the ground to defeat the Islamic State, according to the former army chief of staff who spent more than four years serving in Iraq and who is credited, along with retired General David Petraeus, with being the architect of the successful 2007 troop surge there.

"Probably around 50,000," said Gen. Raymond T. Odierno during a panel discussion moderated by Fox News for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Odierno, who received the George P. Shultz award for distinguished service, emphasized the 50,000 would not all be U.S. troops, but the coalition would need to be U.S.- led.

"Today, I think it's becoming harder and harder to have a unified Iraq,” he said. “And the reason is I believe the influence of Iran inside of Iraq is so great, they will never allow the Sunnis to participate in a meaningful way in the government. If that doesn't happen, you cannot have a unified Iraq."

Oh gee? It wasn't hard yesterday? Like everyone didn't see that coming...

Odierno, who argued for leaving 20,000 troops in Iraq but met resistance from several senior Obama administration officials as well as then Iraqi President Nouri al-Maliki, said the decision to pull out became a self-inflicted wound.

The withdrawal made it harder, if not impossible, for the U.S. government to independently assess what was happening on the ground, at a time when the alienation of the Sunni population fueled the rise of ISIS.

"We lost what we call our human intelligence network on the ground,” he said. “I mean we used to have a pretty significant human intelligence operation. So as we pulled out, our U.S. military, we lose it. So we have to depend on Iraqis, which they collect intelligence, but they do it a little bit differently than we do and they look for different things.

Gosh another shocker. It is almost like deja vu all over again.

When he was in Iraq, Odierno had first-hand knowledge of the ISIS leader Omar al-Baghdadi, who, at the time was a nondescript bomb maker with control over small Baghdad neighborhoods.

"We had captured him a couple of times, released him. He then fled to, I think, Syria. And then he shows (up) - and all of a sudden, I see him on TV making a pronouncement that he's the head of ISIS," Odierno recalled. "You have these individuals who've grown up now fighting the U.S. or whatever - an insurgency - and that becomes their life. And so they continue to grow and grow and grow and some of them become leaders of a movement, which is what he did.”

A mixture of half truths and lies. Classic.

If he was unimportant in 2007 why did Odierno have first hand knowledge of him? If the insurgency was growing and growing and growing against the US (or whatever) why did it die off before the US left theater and reignite 3 years later?