Ebola All Over The Place

Stuff that’s happening in the world that may pertain to our survival. Please keep political debates off the forum.

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by mark9atq » Sat Aug 09, 2014 11:26 pm

Physically the Ebola virus is here already. Has been for years.
Luckily it has not escaped labs like the United States Army Medical Research Institute
of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID; pronounced: you-SAM-rid) ,
the U.S Army’s main institution and facility for defensive research
into countermeasures against biological warfare at Fort Detrick, Maryland.

Perhaps they were the ones that loaned some Ebola to Mapp Biopharmaceutical Inc in San Diego to
make their ZMapp serum the 2 'recovering' ebola patients in Atlanta were injected with before

leaving Africa so as not to violate untested drug laws in US borders.
So its in California also and at that hospital in Atlanta.

I agree it could not spread here unless some mentally disturbed secret-zombie person did it
on purpose for no other reason than they are crazy. Luckily there are no crazy people
in America. No angels of death in the Atlanta Level-4 containment. All is well.
DON'T PANIC.

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by duodecima » Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:28 am

mark9atq wrote:... ZMapp serum the 2 'recovering' ebola patients in Atlanta were injected with before

leaving Africa so as not to violate untested drug laws in US borders.
It's called "compassionate use." It allows the FDA to clear an unapproved drug for use in a specific case where there are no other options and the patient is at extremely high risk, (with consent of both the drug company and the patient, the company can decline a case as well as the FDA.). My (limited!) experience with this involved pediatric cancer patients. The FDA does not publish info on those cases, since it's confidential data about an unapproved drug.

It's easier and quicker to get the vials to Africa than to bring patients to the drug, especially when they were potentially going to become critically unstable during a very long transit time.

[/minor thread derail]
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Old_Man » Sun Aug 10, 2014 7:41 am

KGBrick wrote:
medic photog wrote:Since this strain of Ebola is 90% fatal what about the 10% that survives it? One would think there might be antibodies that could be isolated, harvested, and duplicated.

Last I read the current fatality rate is about 55%, not 90%. Perhaps the 90% fatality rate is what you get if you go to the witch doctor instead of the hospital?
At the beginning of the outbreak, most countries saw a 100% death rate ( not too surprising). Most have declined to 55% or lower. Guinea is the exception with a starting death rate of ~60% and has risen to 75%. Almost hints at a different strain requiring different treatment.

http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.a ... -west.html

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Wraith6761 » Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:11 pm

Old_Man wrote:
KGBrick wrote:
medic photog wrote:Since this strain of Ebola is 90% fatal what about the 10% that survives it? One would think there might be antibodies that could be isolated, harvested, and duplicated.

Last I read the current fatality rate is about 55%, not 90%. Perhaps the 90% fatality rate is what you get if you go to the witch doctor instead of the hospital?
At the beginning of the outbreak, most countries saw a 100% death rate ( not too surprising). Most have declined to 55% or lower. Guinea is the exception with a starting death rate of ~60% and has risen to 75%. Almost hints at a different strain requiring different treatment.

http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.a ... -west.html
Overall stats from the WHO's website shows that the fatality rate is staying pretty constant at 54-55% (54% including all reported suspected cases, about 55% considering only lab-confirmed cases). This is gonna sound bad, but as far as Ebola outbreaks go, this isn't really that bad of an outbreak from the fatality rate perspective. Zaire Ebola virus (which is what this was reported to be) typically averages around 80-83% fatality rate....however, there are a couple of things that are unusual about this outbreak.

1) It's actually not Zaire Ebola...or more specifically, it's not the known strain of Zaire Ebola, but appears to be from the same species. It is 97% identical to the Zaire Ebola virus that's been seen in the epidemics in the Congo, Gabon, and Sudan...but in genetics, a 3% variation can mean a lot (humans and chimps only have a ~1% difference at the genetic level after all). Based off the fact that the fatality rate appears to be lower than a normal Zaire outbreak, maybe we got lucky and the new strain is less virulent.

Source: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NE ... t=abstract
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... ola-strain

2) The weird (and rather sudden) spike in cases in June and July, especially in Liberia. It's possible that we're getting hit with 2 different epidemics of 2 different strains of Ebola at the same time, similar to what happened in 1976 in Yambuku (in the Democratic Republic of Congo), which was hit with Zaire strain, and Nzara (in Sudan), which was hit with the Sudan strain; that would help explain differences in the fatality rate between the two countries. I haven't been able to find anything from a trustworthy site (no "put-on-your-tinfoil-hats," "wrath-of-God," or "it's the gubment's fault" sites) verifying or disproving that suspicion, only something where somebody else spotted the weird spike in reported cases.
CBC news wrote:Also setting this outbreak apart is what's happened after the point at which past outbreaks would have ended.

In the past, "typically there's been a spike and then it drops off," to zero, microbiologist Tom Geisbert says. But for some reason that has health officials mystified, this particular outbreak didn't follow the pattern.

It looked like it was going to, mind you, at least until late May.

When the World Health Organization issued its situation report as of May 18, it projected that the Ebola "outbreak could be declared over on 22 May 2014."

That was in reference to Liberia, where there had been no new confirmed cases since April 9. The situation was also stable in Sierra Leone and improving in Guinea, where the outbreak began in March.

But then the number of new cases again began to move higher, and in July spiked sharply upwards. By early July, WHO was already saying the outbreak was out of control.

And it was Liberia that has had the most new cases, according to the latest WHO update. In the seven days ended Aug. 6, there were 339 new cases (confirmed, probable or suspect), 163 of them in Liberia. There have now been at least 1,779 cases and 961 deaths from Ebola in West Africa.

On Thursday, Liberia declared a state of emergency to fight the virus. Fewer than 24 hours later, WHO declared the outbreak is a "public health emergency of international concern" at a press conference held in Geneva, Switzerland.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/ebola-out ... -1.2729264
Of course, this could just be a coincidence caused by the influx of trained medical personnel into these countries...essentially, more people there who see and recognize the cases for what they are leads to more reported cases.

Also of interest (at least to me) is the fact that while the first case was reported to the WHO in March 2014, they've managed to trace back to a possible "patient zero" case who died in December of 2013, which makes me wonder how many more cases in the Dec '13 to Mar '14 time frame weren't reported (source: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/sta ... 140808/en/).

As for the comparisons in this thread between Ebola and HIV...you're frakking with me, right? No, seriously...you're joking...right? Comparing those two is like comparing a Honda Civic to the Titanic. They are both forms of transportation dependent on engine power. The similarities stop there. Same with Ebola and HIV -- they are both viruses with the potential to kill human beings. That's all the similarity between the two...classification, transmission methods, incubation times, symptoms, survival rates, treatment options, all are completely different.

And as for the comments about Spanish Flu...(ignoring all the ways that influenza is different from filoviruses like Ebola) the medical field wasn't full of people who'd gone through 8+ years of advanced schooling to learn about things like how to deal with diseases. I wouldn't go so far as to call them amateurs, but they certainly weren't doctors by today's standards. Hell, it was 12 years AFTER the Spanish Flu epidemic before we figured out how to use penicillin. Also, consider this: in 1916, there hadn't been a reported case of Spanish Flu ever; for all intents and purposes, it didn't exist. By the end of 1918, it had killed a ridiculous number of people (I've read sources that claim anywhere from 2-5% of the world's population). It came quite literally out of nowhere for those doctors, whereas we've had almost 40 years to study the Ebola virus...we may not fully understand it or know how to beat it, but we definitely have a much stronger grasp on it than they did on Spanish Flu.

As for the decision to bring 2 known infected people back to the States, I can't say I agree with it, but as others have already pointed out, USAMRIID and the CDC have already had cultures of Ebola (and Marburg, and smallpox, and a lot of other nasty shit) in the States anyways, so it's not exactly a new threat.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by raptor » Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:14 pm

Saw this:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/ ... 9-17-06-37
BOSTON (AP) -- The Ebola outbreak in West Africa is focusing a spotlight on an online tool run by experts in Boston that flagged a "mystery hemorrhagic fever" in forested areas of southeastern Guinea nine days before the World Health Organization formally announced the epidemic.

HealthMap uses algorithms to scour tens of thousands of social media sites, local news, government websites, infectious-disease physicians' social networks and other sources to detect and track disease outbreaks. Sophisticated software filters irrelevant data, classifies the relevant information, identifies diseases and maps their locations with the help of experts.

"It shows some of these informal sources are helping paint a picture of what's happening that's useful to these public health agencies," HealthMap co-founder John Brownstein said

HealthMap is operated by a group of 45 researchers, epidemiologists and software developers at Boston Children's Hospital.

The tool was introduced in 2006 with a core audience of public health specialists, but that changed as the system evolved and the public became increasingly hungry for information during the swine flu pandemic.

HealthMap generates information that includes locations of specific outbreaks and tracks new cases and deaths. The system is also capable of logging public sentiment.

The Ebola outbreak, the largest and longest ever recorded for the disease, has so far killed more than 950 people. It emerged in Guinea in March and has since spread to Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria.

---

Online:

HealthMap Interactive Ebola Tool: http://healthmap.org/ebola/

---

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:16 pm

Wraith6761 wrote:And as for the comments about Spanish Flu...(ignoring all the ways that influenza is different from filoviruses like Ebola) the medical field wasn't full of people who'd gone through 8+ years of advanced schooling to learn about things like how to deal with diseases. I wouldn't go so far as to call them amateurs, but they certainly weren't doctors by today's standards. Hell, it was 12 years AFTER the Spanish Flu epidemic before we figured out how to use penicillin. Also, consider this: in 1916, there hadn't been a reported case of Spanish Flu ever; for all intents and purposes, it didn't exist. By the end of 1918, it had killed a ridiculous number of people (I've read sources that claim anywhere from 2-5% of the world's population). It came quite literally out of nowhere for those doctors, whereas we've had almost 40 years to study the Ebola virus...we may not fully understand it or know how to beat it, but we definitely have a much stronger grasp on it than they did on Spanish Flu.
I feel like everyone also forgets there was a large trench war with rather shitty medical and hygiene conditions during 1918. I feel like that's an important factor in the death tolls and spread.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by offcamber » Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:59 pm

Wraith6761 wrote: 1) It's actually not Zaire Ebola...or more specifically, it's not the known strain of Zaire Ebola, but appears to be from the same species. It is 97% identical to the Zaire Ebola virus that's been seen in the epidemics in the Congo, Gabon, and Sudan...but in genetics, a 3% variation can mean a lot (humans and chimps only have a ~1% difference at the genetic level after all). Based off the fact that the fatality rate appears to be lower than a normal Zaire outbreak, maybe we got lucky and the new strain is less virulent.
From what I have read, previous outbreaks had up to a 90% death rate and killed very quickly. The virus would pop up in a remote area, kill everyone then fizzle out. While I agree with you that we are lucky that this strain has proved less virulent so far, I'm concerned that the much longer incubation time than previous outbreaks is going to pose the biggest problem in trying to combat the pandemic going forward.

Its also a little nerve wracking knowing that in order for the epidemic to be contained/stopped, there have to be no new victims/infections, otherwise a potential new outbreak will pop up and the process potentially starts anew.

I think this strain is going to take a lot of time, money, and international support to get under control.

**edit.. Does anyone know how often the CDC updates the new cases info? The last update via the CDC website was on August 8th, but only listed totals compiled up to the 6th .. I'm just curious as to what the current numbers might look like since it has been 5 days with no new tallies?

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Wraith6761 » Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:56 am

offcamber wrote:
Wraith6761 wrote: 1) It's actually not Zaire Ebola...or more specifically, it's not the known strain of Zaire Ebola, but appears to be from the same species. It is 97% identical to the Zaire Ebola virus that's been seen in the epidemics in the Congo, Gabon, and Sudan...but in genetics, a 3% variation can mean a lot (humans and chimps only have a ~1% difference at the genetic level after all). Based off the fact that the fatality rate appears to be lower than a normal Zaire outbreak, maybe we got lucky and the new strain is less virulent.
From what I have read, previous outbreaks had up to a 90% death rate and killed very quickly. The virus would pop up in a remote area, kill everyone then fizzle out. While I agree with you that we are lucky that this strain has proved less virulent so far, I'm concerned that the much longer incubation time than previous outbreaks is going to pose the biggest problem in trying to combat the pandemic going forward.

Its also a little nerve wracking knowing that in order for the epidemic to be contained/stopped, there have to be no new victims/infections, otherwise a potential new outbreak will pop up and the process potentially starts anew.

I think this strain is going to take a lot of time, money, and international support to get under control.

**edit.. Does anyone know how often the CDC updates the new cases info? The last update via the CDC website was on August 8th, but only listed totals compiled up to the 6th .. I'm just curious as to what the current numbers might look like since it has been 5 days with no new tallies?
Longer incubation times? Everything I've seen says the incubation timeframe for this strain is within the norm for Ebola. Just curious where you saw that, as I very well could have overlooked it.

As for the updates, I'm not sure but the WHO's website hasn't been updated since the 8th either. Might be because the web admins weren't working over the weekend, and we'll get the update on Monday.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by DarkAxel » Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:55 am

Actually, there's a bit of overlap on transmission methods for HIV and EVD, namely contact with infected bodily fluids.

As for the difference in survival rates given the time-frame, it may represent a mutation. I'm not a doctor or virologist, but as I understand it, the probability of a viral mutation becomes more likely the longer an outbreak lasts. Also, as I understand it, viral mutations that increase the incubation time also tend to increase the survivability rate.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Old_Man » Mon Aug 11, 2014 7:15 am

Little update from the inside..
http://bit.ly/XUL1ux

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by mark9atq » Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:43 pm

I know we all hope Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever will mutate towards a less dangerous
strain or that medical science will come up with a cheap effective cure.

In the mean time what we can do on this site is think about preparing for the worse.
1. Buying more bleach
2. Planning Home Isolation Protocols when one of your family breaks with the virus in case
your local hospitals are overwhelmed with cases.

read more here
http://usaebn.org/web/index.php/medical ... -protocols


(based on CDC Infection Prevention and Control Recommendations for Hospitalized Patients with
Known or Suspected Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever in U.S. Hospitals. (http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/infect ... tions.html)

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Anianna » Mon Aug 11, 2014 4:36 pm

This right here epitomizes at least part of the problem of halting the spread in Africa:

Image

If you have to convince a population that the disease is real, it's going to be pretty difficult to contain it.



On a related note, they're pretty sure a two-year-old in Guinea was patient zero.



Also, illness aside, the ambiguous grammar on that banner is a little amusing.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Ashemaru » Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:51 pm

Rabies will make it all better. I'm not taking that vaccine.

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Stercutus » Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:57 pm

Anianna wrote:This right here epitomizes at least part of the problem of halting the spread in Africa:

Image

If you have to convince a population that the disease is real, it's going to be pretty difficult to contain it.



On a related note, they're pretty sure a two-year-old in Guinea was patient zero.



Also, illness aside, the ambiguous grammar on that banner is a little amusing.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by raptor » Mon Aug 11, 2014 6:07 pm

Ashemaru wrote:Rabies will make it all better. I'm not taking that vaccine.

http://consumer.healthday.com/public-he ... 90623.html
Normally I would not have a problem with a vaccine but.... yes I agree linking ebola to rabies for a comb vaccine is one I would wait a awhile to take, especially since rabies (99.99% fatal vs ebola @ 70% to 90%) has such a long latency period.

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Apathy » Mon Aug 11, 2014 6:18 pm

Anianna wrote:This right here epitomizes at least part of the problem of halting the spread in Africa:

Image

If you have to convince a population that the disease is real, it's going to be pretty difficult to contain it.



On a related note, they're pretty sure a two-year-old in Guinea was patient zero.



Also, illness aside, the ambiguous grammar on that banner is a little amusing.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Tue Aug 12, 2014 5:04 pm

A priest has died of Ebola in Madrid, Spain.

No need to panic, he contracted Ebola while treating the sick in Liberia and had been MedEvac'd to Spain under strict containment protocols. His body has been cremated to prevent contamination.

So you can either relax and say thank you to a selfless servant of the poor and forgotten or you can dread that the new Black Death has arrived in Europe.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by LowKey » Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:20 pm

raptor wrote:
Ashemaru wrote:Rabies will make it all better. I'm not taking that vaccine.

http://consumer.healthday.com/public-he ... 90623.html
Normally I would not have a problem with a vaccine but.... yes I agree linking ebola to rabies for a comb vaccine is one I would wait a awhile to take, especially since rabies (99.99% fatal vs ebola @ 70% to 90%) has such a long latency period.
"By attaching Ebola to the rabies virus, Schnell's group was able to make a vaccine that may protect against both Ebola and rabies"

Good grief, sounds more like the opening to a prequel for 28 Days...."Here, try our newest vaccine. Side effects may include rabid irrational rage and aggression coupled with a propensity for spewing blood and bodily fluids while bleeding from every orifice". :crazy:

Really, life does seem to imitate art from time to time.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Woods Walker » Tue Aug 12, 2014 8:36 pm

Doctorr Fabulous wrote:I feel like everyone also forgets there was a large trench war with rather shitty medical and hygiene conditions during 1918. I feel like that's an important factor in the death tolls and spread.
Wasn't that the war to end all wars? :roll:
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by IceWing » Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:36 pm

LowKey wrote:
Good grief, sounds more like the opening to a prequel for 28 Days...."Here, try our newest vaccine. Side effects may include rabid irrational rage and aggression coupled with a propensity for spewing blood and bodily fluids while bleeding from every orifice". :crazy:

Really, life does seem to imitate art from time to time.
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by sheddi » Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:10 pm

Here's a report for those of you who still don't realise that large swathes of the world's population still don't have the first clue regarding hygiene. It's a long article and I've only quoted excerpts.

"Kissing the Corpses in Ebola Country"
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... untry.html
The Daily Beast wrote:“Those that have just died are teeming with virus, in all their fluids,” says O’Sullivan. “That is in fact the worst point because their immune systems are failed...they are leaking out of every orifice. They are extremely dangerous.” A passage in the 2004 paper Containing a Haemorrhagic Fever Epidemic published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases paints an even bleaker picture. Citing two specific studies, the authors suggest that a “high concentration of the virus is secreted on the skin of the dead.”

With fluids seeping out of every body opening, and potentially every pore, it’s no mystery why the burial rituals of West Africa pose such a danger.

In the Ugandan ceremonies the Hewletts witnessed, the sister of the deceased’s father is responsible for bathing, cleaning, and dressing the body in a “favorite outfit.” This task, they write, is “too emotionally painful” for the immediate family. In the event that no aunt exists, a female elder in the community takes this role on. The next step, the mourning, is where the real ceremony takes place. “Funerals are major cultural events that can last for days, depending on the status of the deceased person,” they write. As the women “wail” and the men “dance,” the community takes time to “demonstrate care and respect for the dead.” The more important the person, the longer the mourning. When the ceremony is coming to a close, a common bowl is used for ritual hand-washing, and a final touch or kiss on the face of the corpse (which is known as a “a love touch”) is bestowed on the dead. When the ceremony has concluded, the body is buried on land that directly adjoins the deceased’s house because “the family wants the spirit to be happy and not feel forgotten.”
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by medic photog » Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:12 am

I was watching a video last night on youtube about ebola from vice news. I haven't been in that area for 35 years and it seems nothing has really changed from what I can remember. The video will give you an idea why it's so difficult to contain this. Hopefully this will be a link to the video and you'll get a better idea of the way things are there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XasTcDsDfMg

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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Anianna » Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:42 pm

No surprise, but the snake-oil salesmen are out peddling "prevention", "treatment", and "cures" for Ebola. The FDA is warning people to watch out for this crap and to report it. Article link
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Re: Ebola in West Africa

Post by Old_Man » Sun Aug 17, 2014 7:58 am

Apparently armed men attacked an Ebola clinic cause 29 patients to flee.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/08/arme ... ents-flee/
MONROVIA (AFP) – Armed men attacked an Ebola isolation ward in the Liberian capital Monrovia overnight, prompting 29 patients to flee the facility, witnesses said Sunday.
“They broke down the doors and looted the place. The patients all fled,” said Rebecca Wesseh, who witnessed the attack and whose report was confirmed by residents and the head of Health Workers Association of Liberian, George Williams
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/08/arme ... 4oota.dpuf

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