North Korea Saber Rattling

[TC]

North Korea rocket launch fails

North Korea's keenly-watched rocket launch has failed, Pyongyang has confirmed.

The rocket - seen by many as a banned test of long-range missile technology - was launched from north-west North Korea early on Friday.

The US, Japan and South Korea say it flew only for a short time before breaking up and crashing into waters off the Korean peninsula.

North Korea said its scientists were assessing what had caused the failure.

North Korea says the aim of the rocket was to launch a satellite into orbit - a move marking the 100th anniversary of the birth of national founder Kim Il-sung.

But the US and other nations say the launch constituted a disguised test of long-range missile technology banned under UN resolutions.

In a statement, the White House condemned the launch, despite its failure. The UN Security Council is due to meet later in the day to discuss the launch. China, North Korea's closest ally, has called for calm and restraint on the Korean peninsula.
'Ended in failure'

The rocket went up at 07:39 local time (22:39 GMT Thursday), South Korean officials said.

Its intended flight path would have taken it south, to the west of the Korean peninsula between Japan and the Philippines.

Both Japan and South Korea had threatened to shoot it down if it threatened their territory.

But officials from several nations observing the launch said the rocket had failed.

"Initial indications are that the first stage of the missile fell into the sea 165km (105 miles) west of Seoul, South Korea," the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad) said in a statement.

"The remaining stages were assessed to have failed and no debris fell on land. At no time were the missile or the resultant debris a threat."

Japan reported similar details.

"At approximately 07:40 we confirmed that a certain flying object was launched from North Korea and fell after flying for just over a minute," Japanese Defence Minister Naoki Tanaka said.

South Korea said the rocket exploded into some 20 pieces and fell into the sea.

"We are conducting a search operation to retrieve the fallen objects," a defence ministry official said.

Some five hours after the launch, North Korea confirmed it had been unsuccessful.

"The Earth observation satellite failed to enter its preset orbit. Scientists, technicians and experts are now looking into the cause of the failure," state-run KCNA news agency said. State television carried a similar announcement.

The BBC's Damian Grammaticas, who is one of a number of foreign journalists invited into North Korea for the launch, said the group had not been given any more information beyond that brief statement.

The rocket's failure, our correspondent said, is an embarrassment for the North Korean leadership.

It will also come, analysts say, as a relief to many countries who are worried about North Korea's potential to deliver weapons via long-range missiles.

The US said that North Korea's behaviour was of concern to the global community.

"Despite the failure of its attempted missile launch, North Korea's provocative action threatens regional security, violates international law and contravenes its own recent commitments," a White House statement said.

Pyongyang agreed in February to a partial freeze in nuclear activities and a missile test moratorium in return for US food aid. But that deal was put on hold last month after the North announced its rocket launch plans.

Earlier this week reports also emerged from South Korea of a possible third nuclear test being planned by North Korea.

North Korea conducted a similar rocket launch in 2009. On that occasion US and South Korea analysts said the rocket failed to reach orbit - but North Korea said it was a success.

The failure of this launch could pose a challenge for Pyongyang, which is holding a week of high-profile events ahead of the formal celebrations to mark Kim Il-sung's birthday on Sunday.

The Workers' Party held a rare conference on Wednesday and the country's rubber-stamp parliament is due to meet on Friday.

Both meetings are seen as formalising the transition of power to young leader Kim Jong-un following the death of his father Kim Jong-il in December 2011.

[TC]

Embarrassed by rocket crash, North Korea may try nuclear test

(Reuters) - North Korea said its much hyped long-range rocket launch failed on Friday, in a very rare and embarrassing public admission of failure by the hermit state and a blow for its new young leader who faces international outrage over the attempt.

The isolated North, using the launch to celebrate the 100th birthday of the dead founding president Kim Il-sung and to mark the rise to power of his grandson Kim Jong-un, is now widely expected to press ahead with its third nuclear test to show its military strength.

"The possibility of an additional long-range rocket launch or a nuclear test, as well as a military provocation to strengthen internal solidarity is very high," a senior South Korean defence ministry official told a parliamentary hearing.

The two Koreas are divided by the world's most militarised border and remain technically at war after an armistice ended the Korean War in 1953.

The United States and Japan said the rocket, which they claimed was a disguised missile test and the North said was to put a satellite into orbit, crashed into the sea after travelling a much shorter distance than a previous North Korean launch.

Its failure raises questions over the impoverished North's reclusive leadership which has one of the world's largest standing armies but cannot feed its people without outside aid, largely from its only powerful backer, China.

"(There is) no question that the failed launch turns speculation toward the ramifications for the leadership in Pyongyang: a fireworks display gone bad on the biggest day of the year," said Scott Snyder of the Council on Foreign Relations.

In a highly unusual move, the North, which still claims success with a 2009 satellite that others say failed, admitted in a state television broadcast seen by its 23 million people that the latest satellite had not made it into orbit.

The failure is the first major and very public challenge for the third of the Kim dynasty to rule North Korea just months into the leadership of a man believed to be in his late 20s.

"It could be indication of subtle change in the North Korean leadership in how they handle these things, something that may be different from the past," said Baek Seung-joo of the Korea Institute of Defense Analyses a thinktank affiliated with South Korean Defence Ministry.

"I mean it would have been unthinkable for them to admit this kind of failure in the past, something that could be seen as an international humiliation. The decision to have come out with the admission had to come from Kim Jong-un."

Embarrassingly, the rocket flew for just a few minutes covering a little over 100km to explode over a sea separating the Korean peninsula and China, far less than the last rocket in 2009 that travelled 3,800km, alarming Japan which it over-flew.

The launch is in breach of United Nations Security Council sanctions and drew condemnation from the United States, Russia, South Korea and Japan.

But North Korea looks to have avoided the threat of fresh U.N. sanctions - which neighbour Japan is pushing for - after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that at talks with his Chinese and Indian counterparts they had agreed new sanctions would do nothing to help resolve the situation.

Regional powers are worried that the North is using launches to perfect technology to enable it to build a missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the United States.

North Korea has repeatedly defended its right to launch rockets for what it says are peaceful purposes and may have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the failed launch.

China, the North's main backer, again appealed for "calm", although its failure to dissuade Pyongyang from undertaking the launch despite propping up the ailing and impoverished state, showed the limitations of its diplomacy, analysts said.

"North Korea's provocative action threatens regional security, violates international law and contravenes its own recent commitments," White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

The North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD, said the first stage fell into the sea west of South Korea, and the remainder was deemed to have failed.

"No debris fell on land," NORAD said. "At no time were the missile or the resultant debris a threat...(continued at link)

[TC]

U.N. condemns North Korea launch, warns on nuclear test

(Reuters) - The U.N. Security Council on Monday strongly condemned North Korea's rocket launch, urged tightening of existing U.N. sanctions and warned Pyongyang of further consequences if it carries out another missile launch or nuclear test.

China, a permanent veto-wielding council member and North Korea's protector on the 15-nation panel, backed the council's "presidential statement," which was adopted unanimously.

U.N. diplomats said the council's relatively quick agreement on a declaration condemning Pyongyang signalled Beijing's irritation with its hermit neighbour over a satellite launch last week that North Korea had been widely urged not to carry out.

"The Security Council strongly condemns the 13 April 2012 (local time) launch by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)," the statement said.

"The Security Council demands that the DPRK (North Korea) not proceed with any further launches using ballistic missile technology and comply with (Security Council) resolutions ... by suspending all activities related to its ballistic missile program," it said.

The council declaration also demands that North Korea "abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner ... and not conduct any further launches that use ballistic missile technology, nuclear tests or any further provocation."

It concludes with a warning to Pyongyang that the council is prepared to take further steps if necessary...(continues at link)

Damn, DPRK better watch out for those extra steps, they can be real bitches...

[TC]

China assisting North Korean missile programme - Leon Panetta

Reuters) - China has provided some assistance to North Korea's missile program, U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said on Thursday, a week after the hermit state's failed rocket launch triggered international condemnation.

Under United Nations Security Council resolutions from 2006 and 2009, states, including China, are banned from helping North Korea with its ballistic missile programme, its nuclear activities as well as supplying heavy weapons.

Beijing has denied it has broken any rules, although a modern missile transporter seen in Sunday's military parade to celebrate the founder of North Korea was said by some western military experts to be of Chinese design and possibly origin.

"I'm sure there's been some help coming from China. I don't know, you know, the exact extent of that," Panetta told members of the House Armed Services Committee when asked whether China had been supporting North Korea's missile program through "trade and technology exchanges".

North Korea's powerful Asian neighbour is Pyongyang's only major ally, with military and economic ties that date back to the communist origins of the two nations.

Pyongyang has said it was ready to retaliate in the face of widespread condemnation of the failed launch, increasing the likelihood the isolated state will go ahead with a third nuclear test. Late on Thursday it said it had "never recognized the UNSC (U.N. Security Council) resolution".

After last week's launch, which the United States said was a disguised long-range missile test but which Pyongyang insists was meant to put a satellite into orbit, the Obama administration said it had suspended a food aid deal.

Pyongyang retorted the food aid was "worth a petty amount of money".

China has called for "dialogue and communication" as tensions with North Korea mount and reiterated its long-standing call for a return to regional denuclearisation talks that have been stalled for years.

On Thursday, South Korea said it had added a cruise missile to its arsenal that could hit anywhere in the North, raising the risk that any attack on the South, like the shelling of an island in 2010, would prompt an immediate response.

In Thursday's hearing, Republican Rep. Michael Turner pressed Panetta about a transporter launcher system - essentially a large truck on top of which a missile is mounted - that North Korea showcased during a military parade on Sunday, which he said appeared to be made in China.

Panetta declined to give additional details about any Chinese support for North Korea's missile capabilities in a public setting due to "the sensitivity of that information".

"But clearly there's been assistance along those lines," the Defence Secretary said.

Panetta said there was "no question" North Korea's efforts to develop long-range missile and nuclear weapon capability were a threat to the United States. "For that reason we take North Korea and their provocative actions very seriously," he said...(continued at link)

[SeerSavant]

Not sure what to make of all this,

On the one hand you have a distinctly aggressive nation that is a very real threat to it's neighbors that slaps at any hand offered and starts the bluster and posturing of someone that really wants either attention or some form of instant respect. On the other hand, you have a failure for a test, an ignoring of treaties. Which is kinda like ignoring drunk driving laws, you ignore them long enough, and get more brazen until you wake up in the drunk tank, the cop is staring daggers at you and lets you know that all your passengers are dead.

NK is clearly oblivious to the real dangers inherent to it's own population (which is not really anything new) but risks setting off a (at the very least) regional conflict that could push past politics into military posturing (from nations besides NK) and potentially even farther.

It's like Kim Jong Un has no idea of how far to push, or is living in his own world with the delusions of grandeur, aims on world domination, thinks the videogame Homeland has actual potential? Who knows, mebbe he's a new kid in school and has decided to play the bully.

I really don't know what to think about this kid.

Is he being misled by generals and whatnot that his dad kept in check, or is he really that unstable...

And just because he doesn't recognize the UN security council resolution means squat.

I can simply not recognize the laws passed by my community, but the fact of the matter is, i leave my yard and begin breaking them, I will get hurt.

Saying I don't believe or recognize something, ergo it doesn't exist, is like a guy in a dark alley telling the mugger that he doesn't believe the gun has bullets...

Funny thing, I really don't know if the gun is loaded either... But testing the theory that it isn't is both extremely ballsy, and extremely stupid.



One other thing... Behaving the bully, when you know all the players is one thing, but Kim Jong Un is new to the playground, and yeah, he has the biggest kid in the playground standing right beside him (china) But if he throws his weight around and force a fight, will the big kid get involved, will he stand back and watch the kid learn a lesson, or has he been whispering in the kids ear since he got on the playground?

Kim Jong Un is either delusional, or a sock puppet... So right now, i'm kinda wondering where China's hands are at..

[TC]

China and North Korea hold highest-level talks since rocket

(Reuters) - China and North Korea on Saturday held their highest-level talks since Pyongyang staged a rocket launch that drew international censure, and they exchanged views about the tense Korean peninsula, according to an official Chinese news report.

Wang Jiarui, the head of the ruling Chinese Communist Party's International Department, met Kim Yong-il, the Korean Workers' Party director of international affairs, for "strategic" talks between the two ruling parties, the Xinhua news agency reported.

"Both sides thoroughly exchanged views on developing exchanges and cooperation between the Chinese and North Korean parties, on developments on the Korean peninsula, and on other international and regional issues of common concern," said the report which did not mention the recent failed rocket launch.

China conducts many of its high-level contacts with North Korea through party channels, rather than traditional diplomatic ones. This meeting was the most high-level between them since Pyongyang defied international pressure and pushed ahead with a rocket launch on April 13, which it said aimed to put a weather satellite into orbit.

Critics said the launch was intended to enhance North Korea's capacity to design a ballistic missile that could deliver a nuclear warhead capable of hitting continental United States. But the rocket quickly fizzled out and crashed into the sea.

China has fended off calls for harsher pressure on North Korea, its neighbour and long-time ally that it sees as a strategic buffer against U.S. power. But Beijing joined other powers in backing a United Nations Security Council statement condemning the North's rocket launch and warning Pyongyang of consequences if it carries out another launch or nuclear test.

[phil_in_cs]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17867174

Some of the rockets in the parade might have been faked up.

Earlier this month at a parade in Pyongyang, the North Korean authorities caught the attention of a number of western experts by displaying what appeared to be six road-mobile inter-continental ballistic missiles.

It was the first time that this system had been seen in public and it appeared to mark yet another step forward in North Korea's ambitious missile development programme.

But now, after a careful study of pictures from the parade, a team of German arms experts thinks the missiles are not quite what they seem.

more at the link

[TC]

North Korea 'resumes work' on light water reactor

North Korea has resumed work on a light water reactor that could be used to support its nuclear programme after ''months of inactivity'', a United States institute says.

The analysis was based on satellite photographs taken on 30 April showing new construction at the Yongbyon site.

Pyongyang is ''now close to completion'' of the reactor containment building, the institute said.

But it may take one to two more years before the site is fully operational.

The reactor, which Pyongyang says is to meet energy needs, is a prototype for other, larger reactors already in the pipeline, says the BBC's Lucy Williamson in Seoul.

The ''next major step in construction'' following the completion of the building would be the loading of ''heavy components, such as the pressure vessel, steam generator and pressuriser'' through the roof, said the analysis published on the 38north website.

The institute at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University has been analysing satellite photographs of the experimental light water reactor since last year.

It tracked ''rapid progress'' in 2011 and found that work at the site stopped in late December.

''Exactly why the work stopped remains unclear,'' the institute said.

It could have been partly due to the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in December, or more likely, the approach of winter, it added.

Pyongyang first revealed that it was building a new reactor in 2010 when it showed US scientists a uranium enrichment plant reportedly producing fuel for the new facility.

Officials said both the light water reactor and enrichment plant were meant to produce power for civilian use.

But experts said the reactor could be used to produce plutonium and the plant could be converted to produce highly enriched uranium for weapons.

News of progress on the reactor site comes amid reports that North Korea may be planning to carry out a third nuclear test.

[SeerSavant]

If NK's reactor projects are as successful as their rocket tests, I would think that it would be prudent to begin moving as far away from the border of NK as possible...

[tookieblueeyes]

*** Deleted Previous Post ***

Does anyone know what the North Koreans plans are for testing their nuke underground?
Satelite images and intelligence point to them testing nukes because of a massive dig they are currently working on that seems to indicate their plans for testing.
I wonder what their plans are for their nukes are since they are having such a difficult time getting a satellite up in the air.
If they intend on proceeding with plans for another rocket to put a satelite up in space after ground testing a nuke, how is the US, UN, and others going to handle that threat and their constant refusal to sit down and talk things out, but rather do things their own way without help or without consulting other countries.

I am not really clear on one thing... who are North Korea's true allies? China right? Are there others?

It wasn't until about 2 years ago that I really started paying attention to the news and the world around me, I was too busy working and going to college and being oblivious to the state of hte whole world because it was just too depressing in my opinion to really pay much attention.

So excuse me if I don't "know it all".

[SeerSavant]

The thread started a ways back, but if you check the articles on this page, they are dated this month and last month...

The thread was started back in 2009, sure, but I don't think the horse is dead... It's simply got a new rider...

[hatchtrikk]

I'm not so sure that the rocket/satellite tests were actually failures.

Think about it. Haven't they successfully tested all the different stages? Maybe they only let the rocket fly just long enough to make sure that it worked.

Kinda like poker. Bluff every time. Then when you have a good hand, make everyone think you're bluffing and win the pot

[TC]

Ummmm did anyone else notice this?: N. Korea Threatens War if 'Satellite' Is Shot Down

Published March 09, 2009

Associated Press

The article being discussed is over 3 years old
Is this thread over 3 years old?
If it is shouldn't it be in the threads graveyard?
I really don't think there is anything to be afraid of from NK. They can't even get a satalite into space, they can't even get past SK. It's pitiful
Seriously... why is this thread still going? We are waaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy beyond 2009 wwwwwwaaaaaaaayyyyyy waaaaayyyy waaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyy beyond 2009. There can't be anything left to talk about on this matter and if there is... why are we beating a dead horse? The horse is dead. Dead as a doornail.

Maybe just don't read the thread then if it's not interesting to you?

The actions of North Korea and the effects and implications of events on the Korean Peninsula are ongoing and have plenty of impact on the world we live in. This ranges from global politics to personal impact for some members of this board, myself included.

Like I said, if you don't think it's important or that you don't need to know about it, find another thread to read and let those who do want to know about the subject continue their own discussions in this one.

[Blacksmith]

NK is bunch of starving nutters. Any time things could go seriously bad with people like that. Nothing wrong with keeping an eye on it.

[the_alias]

tookieblueeyes - check your PMs.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

Hmmm.

This is like the third time in two weeks where long running DICE threads have had issues because folks see the original thread title or OP and go off of that without realising that the thread has evolved into a "keeping an eye on the situation" type deal, etc.

eg: The North Korea Sabre Rattling thread, the Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon thread and the Mexico becoming a failed state thread.

I can see why though, if they weren't aware of the thread's history expecting them to read between 44 - 106 pages to get that point is probably a bit much.

For situational awareness, tracking purposes and discussion these threads are important to ZS and what ZS is about. Maybe a leaf should be taken out of Dogbane's Big Africa SHTF thread and we should look at re-titling them or mod edit the OP to avoid any further confusion and better reflect the evolution of these threads?


Thoughts?

-

[phil_in_cs]

Hmmm.

This is like the third time in two weeks where long running DICE threads have had issues because folks see the original thread title or OP and go off of that without realising that the thread has evolved into a "keeping an eye on the situation" type deal, etc.

eg: The North Korea Sabre Rattling thread, the Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon thread and the Mexico becoming a failed state thread.

I can see why though, if they weren't aware of the thread's history expecting them to read between 44 - 106 pages to get that point is probably a bit much.

For situational awareness, tracking purposes and discussion these threads are important to ZS and what ZS is about. Maybe a leaf should be taken out of Dogbane's Big Africa SHTF thread and we should look at re-titling them or mod edit the OP to avoid any further confusion and better reflect the evolution of these threads?


Thoughts?

-

I suppose. Asking people to read and pay attention is apparently too much to ask.

[airballrad]

I suppose. Asking people to read and pay attention is apparently too much to ask.

Your point is valid, but put yourself in the shoes of someone who has just joined the site. Trying to cover and consume 8 years of previous posts is a daunting task, and I imagine their eyes are going to glaze a bit. Not noticing the starting date on a thread is a rookie mistake, but a common one.

[phil_in_cs]

In this case, Saber Rattling isn't a bad title. They make threats, maybe launch a missile or sink a ship, and get paid off. Change it to "NK Extorts World"? It is a dangerous situation.

[Blacksmith]

In this case, Saber Rattling isn't a bad title. They make threats, maybe launch a missile or sink a ship, and get paid off. Change it to "NK Extorts World"? It is a dangerous situation.

I kind of like the newly proposed title, sums it up nicely.

[Tetra Grammaton Cleric]

In this case, Saber Rattling isn't a bad title. They make threats, maybe launch a missile or sink a ship, and get paid off

For this particular thread I'd agree and vote to keep the Saber Rattling title.

There is an old school poetry about it and it's sufficiently not that provocative that it would offend our large contingent of North Korean forum members.


Just an edited description in the OP works for me here.

-

[GP11]

I am not really clear on one thing... who are North Korea's true allies? China right? Are there others?

I'm not sure the Norks have any true allies who would back them up militarily if push came to shove (ie a shooting war with South Korea/the US).

My impression is the Chinese are their allies mainly because they like having their own sphere of influence like the Soviets did during the Cold War--it helps their ambitions to be a global superpower. I wouldn't be surprised if that bond weakens as (1) China gains influence/client states in other parts of the world (eg Africa), and (2) the unreliability of the North Korean regime becomes too politically unreliable for China to still be close to them and hold a position of respect in the international community.

To be honest, I think declining Chinese influence in North Korea is most likely to have negative repercussions--they seem to be the only ones capable of restraining them to any degree. I think that North Korea has been isolated for so long that they have very little sense of realism with regard to the rest of the world.

[Greg Focker]

I'm not so sure that the rocket/satellite tests were actually failures.

Think about it. Haven't they successfully tested all the different stages? Maybe they only let the rocket fly just long enough to make sure that it worked.

Kinda like poker. Bluff every time. Then when you have a good hand, make everyone think you're bluffing and win the pot

Well, what's their winning scenario with regards to nukes? They threaten to bomb another country via ballistic missiles, everyone thinks they can't, they successfully bomb (pick one: S. Korea, Japan, USA). The USA's formal doctrine to getting hit with a WMD is to respond in kind... and we've got a lot more nukes. NK wiping out California in exchanged for getting utterly destroyed doesn't seem like a "win"

[SeerSavant]

Well, what's their winning scenario with regards to nukes? They threaten to bomb another country via ballistic missiles, everyone thinks they can't, they successfully bomb (pick one: S. Korea, Japan, USA). The USA's formal doctrine to getting hit with a WMD is to respond in kind... and we've got a lot more nukes. NK wiping out California in exchanged for getting utterly destroyed doesn't seem like a "win"

Our history with them has really been that of appeasement we might be viewed as history viewed Neville Chamberlain to their way of thinking, never once even considering that their actions may eventually "step over the line", or that we might in fact respond in any way except to give them what they want to stop...

Have we honestly given them any other view of our political standing?

I think that North Korea has been isolated for so long that they have very little sense of realism with regard to the rest of the world.

This worries me.
That their isolation of and from the world may give rise to a false sense of strength to their position...


Wars have been started for many reasons over mankind's history, and rarely it seems with any regard to consequence....


It's probably good to worry about them, and at the very least, not take it for granted that they are unable or unwilling to take that unthinkable step towards actual war.