Raider realities....

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Re: Raider realities....

Post by phil_in_cs » Fri Jul 16, 2010 2:55 pm

evil monkey wrote:
Sckitzo wrote:Now, do I expect dudes with sawed shotgun, ass less chaps, armor made from old tires and hockey masks riding motorcycles? No.
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition, either.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by URBAN ASSAULT » Fri Jul 16, 2010 3:04 pm

aus.templar wrote:In Australia where only the pigs and the crims have guns, looters are a distinct possibility with devastating outcomes
And they are all gonna look like this...

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WHEN THE PAW COMES YOU ARE RITE FOOKED, MATE!

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Re: Raider realities....

Post by whisk.e.rebellion » Fri Jul 16, 2010 3:08 pm

aus.templar wrote:In Australia where only the pigs and the crims have guns, looters are a distinct possibility with devastating outcomes
Woah, dude. You guys arm livestock there? There's pretty fuckin' hardcore.

Oh, wait. You were referring to law enforcement officers as "pigs." Don't do that. Seriously.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by KnightoftheRoc » Fri Jul 16, 2010 3:55 pm

History does indeed repeat itself- learn from it, or repeat the mistakes of others.
I think that, in the event of it ALL going to hell in a handbasket, a true PAW scenario, that communities will start to adopt the older methods of fortification, creating barrier walls or trenches/moats in order to keep outsiders, outside. While the materials will likely change to what is available, and works, the effect will be similar to the medieval curtain wall that would surround a town. Agriculture, by virtue of it's land needs, will still probably remain outside the walls, just as it did then. Those who work and live outside of towns, will have to make their way into town for safety as fast as they can when trouble shows up.

Raiders are called that because they raid- their entire function is to get in, get the stuff, and get out. Raiders, in other words, do not lay siege to the castle, so to speak. They are based on a "hit and git" mentality, and are not equipped mentally or materially to settle in for a long term siege. The only groups that can successfully lay siege to a fortified position are armies- they have the support system to continually bring in fresh supplies of food, water, materials, and manpower needed to keep the siege going. Besieging armies typically raided as well, but they were able to do so with only limited results- on one hand, those who would attempt to stop the raiding were bottled up inside the fortress, but then, so were the people who would be producing the very things they were raiding to get. Raiding during a siege was a perfect example of diminishing returns.

Those inside the fortress, if they planned at all, will have stockpiles of food and water, and also weapons and ammunition. All they need to survive a siege is to outlast the besiegers- whoever runs out of food first, breaks and loses. Examples of this go back as far as written history- even the Bible has examples. Besieging armies must either outlast the stockpiles of the fortress (preventing re-supply from without, of course) or overcome the defenses while the stockpiles still exist- remember, the stockpiles of food, water, and weapons will be the primary reasons for besieging the fortress city in the first place. If you can keep the enemy from your walls, you can survive as long as your supplies last. How you manage that will depend on what capabilities your fortress has managed to gather, and what the raiders have gotten. If only one side has artillery, for example, the other side is going to be in trouble.

Our modern systems of defense rely very little on fortifications- our 'walls' have become made of energy- radar, satellite sweeps, etc. have replaced structures. In a PAW scenario of sufficient extent, these things will most likely no longer be available, or in such short supply as to be unavailable to protect most people. Falling back on proven methods from the past is a natural and logical course of action. How effective it may turn out to be will depend on too many factors yet to be determined, to be able to make a call either way.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by shrapnel » Fri Jul 16, 2010 4:51 pm

crypto wrote:
Murph wrote:
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Looter looting a looter in Haiti
Just goes to show that people will do anything.
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Yo dawg.
That was my first thought as well. Well played, sir. :lol:
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by aus.templar » Fri Jul 16, 2010 10:38 pm

They don't have to break into an organised community. They could simply harrass the group until they gave over whatever the raiders wanted. You can't stay inside all day so you're vulnerable to long range rifle fire, molotov's thrown or launched at your residence, etc...

As you can guess they don't need to row over your moat and scale the wall... They could simply snipe at who ever is outside tending animals, farming, etc until you cave in.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by KentsOkay » Fri Jul 16, 2010 11:14 pm

I don't prepare for raiders, or in that case zombies. I prepare for these sick puppies:
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That's right, gorram, effin' Reavers: http://www.fireflywiki.org/Firefly/Reavers.
Basically fast zombies with brains. Although psyched out space men probably aren't a reality, the bad guys in "The Road" (Cormac Macarthy) are close enough. So while everyone plans for shambling undead masses, I'm looking out for crazy guys intent on flaying and raping me to death and eating me.
Makes zombies sound downright benign don't it?
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Sckitzo » Sat Jul 17, 2010 12:28 am

phil_in_cs wrote:
evil monkey wrote:
Sckitzo wrote:Now, do I expect dudes with sawed shotgun, ass less chaps, armor made from old tires and hockey masks riding motorcycles? No.
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition, either.
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Well played sirs, well played :lol:

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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Stab74 » Sat Jul 17, 2010 12:29 am

I suppose I'll get back on topic for a second. Read an interesting post by Rawles at Survival Blog titled "How Long Can You Tread Water". Its kinda long but here is the part where the author writes about raiders and our chances. I don't completely agree but its interesting reading nonetheless. Full post here:

http://www.survivalblog.com/2010/07/how ... ter_b.html
Ninety percent of the US population will run out of food in their homes in less than two months, many in a week or two. They would become refugees. A refugee is a person who is carrying with them all of their means for survival and cannot survive more than a few weeks without help since they cannot produce new food. Many would loot, burn and destroy the cities and suburbs while most would hope to find survival in the country believing that farmers have an abundance of food. Eventually virtually all must leave the cities because there will be nothing left to eat and the means to produce new food there will not exist. (Often referred to as the “Golden Horde” which would follow “Refugee Lines of Drift”. See: SurvivalBlog.com)

Vladimir Lenin is often quoted as saying, "Where there is hunger, there is no law." In their struggle to survive refugees would first be beggars, but very quickly, with the increase in hunger, they would become looters and spread out like locusts stripping the land of everything edible. Remember, these people would not be on a simple weekend camping trip. Rather, they and their children would be starving, desperate and probably sick. They would have lost everything. They would face a horrific and uncertain future and they would pretty much do anything to survive. A few may indeed maintain their moral integrity and quietly watch their children starve to death, but the vast majority of refugees will become looters, most of them violent? Many would be in loosely formed bands for the purpose of overwhelming homes or retreats. They will resent and hate those who have stored food in advance and feel it is not fair that preppers should “hoard” food while their families starve. From the preppers point of view they may only have enough food for their own family to survive and to give it away would doom their own family.

Some “Preppers” will have stored food, fuel and arms for themselves and their loved ones, but unfortunately most will have chosen to do so in their suburban or country home, hobby farm or cabin on the lake. First, when WTSHTF, the neighbors that knew of your prepping will come to your door when they run low on food, first asking then demanding your food; see the Twilight Zone episode “The Shelter” by Rod Serling who understood human nature. Second, looting attacks (violent home invasions) will take place again and again and again on every house, occupied or not, as the locust like hoard spreads across the land looking for that last morsel of food. Remote homes/retreats will be least susceptible but eventually every home/retreat that can be found will be looted. It may take some time for them to reach the mountain lake cabins, but they will reach them, and overwhelm them all. The defenders of homes and retreats will be forced to repeatedly kill and dispose of the bodies of the attackers and deal with the heartbreak of their own dead and wounded until they themselves are eventually overwhelmed by a superior force. No matter how well prepared, the retreat will be overrun. Why? There will be a great many attacks from random groups large and small, day and night, day after day, week after week for months. Also, well organized and well armed groups may note your solid resistance and plan your demise over time since they know you are not going anywhere. Eventually they will use tear gas, explosives, armored vehicles, etc. When they want you, they will take you. The other contingency is that the “attackers” may be the U.S. Military or a local government enforcing Martial Law for the confiscation of food and arms. Frankly, I do not foresee long term survival unless the retreat remains unknown to all.

Typical homes and cabins cannot be defended well. A high velocity .308 projectile will pass through the entire house unless it hits a wall stud or appliance and wall studs are typically spaced 16” apart. Eventually a large enough group or gang will take the house, kill/rape/plunder, transport the goods to their lair and then move on to other targets. They would systematically attack every home/retreat they can find. Any surviving defenders will become refugees. Even with a remote food/equipment cache, the defenders will still be refugees with insufficient food to survive until food could be grown and without the means to preserve it if they could grow it. Almost everyone who becomes a refugee will surely die quickly from exposure, violent mobs, physical attack, starvation, disease, infection or dysentery (which would be epidemic due to fouled water).

You may think this is an exaggeration about the vulnerability of your home and our society, but just take a minute here to step out of your house, walk to the street and study your home for a minute. Imagine you, your brother, and your friend from down the street trying to defend your house at night with two deer rifles and a 12 gauge shotgun against 20 guys with semi-automatic assault rifles, night vision goggles and maybe tear gas and an armored vehicle. You would be surrounded. There would be no help from anywhere and you would not have a “snowball’s chance". They will tell you that if you just give up your supplies they will leave you unharmed. When you surrender they will have you haul your goods to their vehicles with smiling gratitude then they will tie you up and torture your wife or children in front of you until you tell them where your “secret supply caches” of food and gold are located, even if you do not have one. (For an example in fiction, see the movie Nevada Smith with Steve McQueen.) The thing is they already know that many retreats have such caches so, until dead from torture, they will not believe that you do not. They will kill the men, children and older women and take any young women with them. Yes, in many cases it will be that horrific. Throughout history it has always been such.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by KnightoftheRoc » Sat Jul 17, 2010 1:18 am

That about sums it up for darn near every house I've ever seen. Excellent find, and great post- thanks!
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Mr. E. Monkey » Sun Jul 18, 2010 1:59 pm

whisk.e.rebellion wrote:
aus.templar wrote:In Australia where only the pigs and the crims have guns, looters are a distinct possibility with devastating outcomes
Woah, dude. You guys arm livestock there? There's pretty fuckin' hardcore
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It could happen. :|
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Redeyes » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:41 am

This thread reminds me of a conversation I overheard at a restaurant. 4 men were conversing about guns, 1 of them was speaking very loudly, and seemed to be very excited about several Nutnfancy videos he saw on Youtube. The conversation then turned to prepardness, and one of the men mentioned a well he had on his property. The Nutnfancy fan made a symbol of a pistol with his thumb and forefinger, and said "this will get me all the food and water I need". He got the stinkeye from 6 people at the same time 3 of them weren't at his table. I hope he learned something from that.

I have nothing against Nutnfancy, I just remember how much that guy seemed to like his videos. You don't choose your fans, they choose you.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Dawgboy » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:46 am

crypto wrote:[
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Yo dawg.
Yo Crypto,
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Hoot Harrington » Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:12 am

It's sad what disaster does to people, take this poor fellow for example.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Browning 35 » Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:37 am

stetson wrote:So many folks are concerned about the long term aspect of raiders. Why?

Raiders are going to exist however they are going to be more along the lines of opportunistic feeders rather then overt agressors. Heres my reasoning.

A) Tolerance, The local remaining populace will not long tolerate someone taking their resources, this leads to folks seeking out assisstance to dealing with the raiders.

B) Fortifications, while some folks like to qoute Patton fortifications do remain a viable defense even more so in PAW, the raiders will need to have more forces to attack and overwhelm a defense point then those manning it.

C) Support and logistics, raiders will need to succeed repeatedly in order to maintain a longterm siege, food, munitions, tools, medical support, if they dont take care of the troops the troops will freaking leave just look at the brush wars of africa. Without a super power support all revolutions would have failed.

While I have limited time to post this my position is this, preparation, planning, and mindset will contain a raider threat. Go ahead and discuss I would love to hear others thoughts.
Well if you think about it there are already organized armed groups of criminals in various parts of the world that would almost certainly turn into Raiders should there be a complete or partial collapse of society. If you think any differently then you probably haven't been around gangs or gang members all that much. There's everything from Bloods, Crips, Folk and Peoples Nation, Sureno's (such as MS-13 and 18th Street), Latin Kings, Nortenos, Outlaw Bikers (Hells Angels, Pagans, Banditos, Mongols and the Outlaws to name a few), Prison Gangs (Mexican Mafia, Aryan Brotherhood, Black Guerilla Family, 415's, La Nuestra Family etc) to Jamacian Posse Members, the Italian Mafia, the Irish Mob, the Russian Mafia, the Chinese Triads and everything in between.

Those are already organized groups that have a hierarchy in place where the death of a couple leaders wouldn't mean the end of the organization, that are already armed to the teeth and that already use violence or the threat of violence as a means of accomplishing their goals. They're good at it and they've already been robbing, stealing and fucking people up and killing them for years. Going from robbing banks, stores, drug dealers and shooting each other and their victims isn't gonna be much of a switch to stealing food, water, medical supplies, guns and ammo for these guys.

Plus that's not even figuring in legitimate armed groups (Military units, various Federal-State and/or Local Police Dept's, the National Guard units of all 50 States, Prison Guards, Armed Security Company Employees etc etc) that could go rogue if TS should HTF. It all depends on how bad it gets. If it's a choice between starving or watching their family starve your needs and innocence may come in a distant second to the previous purpose of those groups of armed men and women.

Here's a pretty decent story written from the point of view from a Raider.

http://www.survivalblog.com/2009/10/ret ... r_wor.html

I'm just saying that even during 'Normal' times there are quite a few people that would kill you and your family for what you have in your wallet, for your car or for what you have in your home. Think of how bad it could get if people were REALLY desperate.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by shrapnel » Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:47 am

You should also keep an eye out for archaeologists wearing fedoras. Your face might end up melting.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Silent Kube » Sun Sep 19, 2010 2:48 am

One of the scariest books I ever read regarding raiders was Lucifer's Hammer. Maybe it was just the writing but it seemed really plausible to me. Basically you have a ragtag group of disorganized raiders. All that disorganized group needed was for someone with a bit of leadership ability to join them to turn into a formidable army.

That being said, I think raiders will be more likely to hit soft targets. Having fortifications would be like when I used to use "the club" on my car. Sure it's easy to get past, but the extra bit of effort required might just make them decide to hit the next guy instead of me.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by KnightoftheRoc » Sun Sep 19, 2010 3:17 am

Browning 35 wrote:.....
Those are already organized groups that have a hierarchy in place where the death of a couple leaders wouldn't mean the end of the organization, that are already armed to the teeth and that already use violence or the threat of violence as a means of accomplishing their goals. They're good at it and they've already been robbing, stealing and fucking people up and killing them for years. Going from robbing banks, stores, drug dealers and shooting each other and their victims isn't gonna be much of a switch to stealing food, water, medical supplies, guns and ammo for these guys.

Plus that's not even figuring in legitimate armed groups (Military units, various Federal-State and/or Local Police Dept's, the National Guard units of all 50 States, Prison Guards, Armed Security Company Employees etc etc) that could go rogue if TS should HTF. It all depends on how bad it gets. If it's a choice between starving or watching their family starve your needs and innocence may come in a distant second to the previous purpose of those groups of armed men and women.....
My only objection to this is the characterization of entire units of professional fan-holders who stand and watch the shit hit their fan everyday. And yet they continue to STAND.

I could see individuals in such units going AWOL, and probably loaded with whatever they can carry as their BOB, it's certainly happened before, and will likely happen again. With that in mind, consider that almost any of the cited example professions will probably be taking off with military grade equipment. Are you prepped for these guys? If some deserter turned raider is knocking on the door of your BOL with a LAW rocket, chances are pretty good he's getting IN. The Barrett rifle makes a nice man portable hole puncher- can your walls hold up to one? I know mine can't.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by URBAN ASSAULT » Sun Sep 19, 2010 5:04 am

KnightoftheRoc wrote:The Barrett rifle makes a nice man portable hole puncher- can your walls hold up to one? I know mine can't.
Dude, I own double-wide trailer... my walls can't hold up to harsh LANGUAGE!

:cry:

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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Browning 35 » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:36 pm

KnightoftheRoc wrote:
Browning 35 wrote:.....
Plus that's not even figuring in legitimate armed groups (Military units, various Federal-State and/or Local Police Dept's, the National Guard units of all 50 States, Prison Guards, Armed Security Company Employees etc etc) that could go rogue if TS should HTF. It all depends on how bad it gets. If it's a choice between starving or watching their family starve your needs and innocence may come in a distant second to the previous purpose of those groups of armed men and women.....
My only objection to this is the characterization of entire units of professional fan-holders who stand and watch the shit hit their fan everyday. And yet they continue to STAND.

I could see individuals in such units going AWOL, and probably loaded with whatever they can carry as their BOB, it's certainly happened before, and will likely happen again. With that in mind, consider that almost any of the cited example professions will probably be taking off with military grade equipment. Are you prepped for these guys? If some deserter turned raider is knocking on the door of your BOL with a LAW rocket, chances are pretty good he's getting IN.
That's why I threw in the disclaimer 'It all depends on how bad it gets'. If it's a localized natural disaster (like say Hurricane Katrina) I don't really forsee any police, national guard or military units going rogue. Now if it's a world changing event (like what was portrayed in 'Lucifers Hammer') that effects the entire North American continent then that might be a different story.

Plus I wasn't trying to say that the vast majority of LEO's and Military Personnel aren't honorable men and women, I'm just saying that like it or not there are a few bad apples here and there even under normal conditions. Gangs do infiltrate both the Military and Law Enforcement agencies. Do they make up a large percentage of the total number of LEO's and Soldiers/Marines/Sailors? No, but they're still present and those particular people could pose a threat and misuse their power or make off with weapons that most people don't have access to.

In regards to the ordinarily decent and honorable people that make up the majority of the US Military and most Law Enforcement agencies if the situation becomes bad enough even ordinarily decent folks may do desperate things to keep their family alive and well. It's nothing against those people because should the situation become bad enough I'd do just about whatever I had to do to see my close friends and family through, it's just that for the most part it doesn't usually get that bad (thank the Gods).

Think of that soccer team that was stuck in the Andes mountains in the 1970's (the events which were shown in a movie called 'Alive'). Do you think that any of them had any idea that in a couple weeks they'd be eating the people that they were sitting next to on the plane when they boarded for take off? Probably not.

My only point is that when trying to survive many people pull out all the stops to do so if it gets bad enough and that desperate people do desperate things that they wouldn't have dreamed of doing only a short while before. That's why it's a good idea to be prepared simply so that it doesn't get that bad.
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It's that smug, superior attitude of theirs, strutting around in their fancy outfits like they're better than everyone else. Yeah, burn in hell, you snobbish bird bastards.

And don't get me started on pandas!

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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Valarius » Mon Sep 27, 2010 3:34 pm

shrapnel wrote:You should also keep an eye out for archaeologists wearing fedoras. Your face might end up melting.
Meh. Only if they're being chased by Nazis.
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by Pigsaw » Fri Oct 08, 2010 2:44 pm

gangs circle around drugs. They dont have drugs- they arent as effective at anything they do
why do you think that drugs are bad?
Also not everyone is from AmericaXD

military desertes-maybe. But not in zombie situation. They got relatives AND friends killed by zombies. AND more than 10 billion bullets are produced each year. Also military has supplies. So hate to zombies+military training + bullets = BAD for zombies
Also BAD for raiders since military is organised and the guys in charge are usually not cold blood killers(i hope, LOL)

look at wild west gangs in wiki

you will not find more than 40 gangs in WROL situation. Which is compared to US 50+ states is reasonably low

so i dont worry about raiders too much:)

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gridwerk
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Re: Raider realities....

Post by gridwerk » Fri Oct 08, 2010 6:41 pm

I had a conversation with a friend not too long after 9/11 about what they could hit next. Eventually, as most conversations of this type do, the topic turned towards "how would you do it?" The question was posed with the only caviat being you HAVE to make it in to the target alive, you dont have to leave in the same fashion. That changed the direction of the scenario.

The earlier post written in the perspective of the raider was interesting but somewhat unrealistic. How many starved raiders have that level of equipment and training? The tone was taken from the perspective of a professional soldier assaulting amish farmers and tax accountants, possible but not probable.

More like, if it were me and I was a "badguy", Id simply molotov the house, shoot all those that run out and then collect any of the canned goods I can the next day after the flames subsided.

But thats not who I am really, more likely I'd eat stray dogs and cats if im starving. Id much rather nab a security guard dog and eat that than run the risk of assaulting a guarded home for some boxes of triscuits and ramen.

I would fill my canteen from rain water or swimming pools after boiling/steam collecting.

I would try to keep as many bags of powdered foods like the kind sold at REI and sports nutrition/vitamin stores if even possible.

I would travel light- no rifles, ak47's, shotguns, gatlin guns, mk19's tOW missle systems or Minigun-with-titanium-bladed-chainsaw-batonette nonsense- just a 9mm or .380 for lighter ammo, smaller magazines, better concealment and easier sound/flash management.

I'd kill what I could eat with improvised spring traps or knives.

I would travel as quickly and quietly as I could to avoid other people as best as possible and I would not make eye contact in the instances when contact was inevitable. I would slouch and try to look as unassuming as possible.

I would do my absolute best to never give up the advantage of surprise and when necessary I would be as absolutely vicious and ruthless as I possibly could. Id rather my hands shake from adrenaline and shame later as opposed to never again.

My whole philosophy would be based on surviving until the S has been mostly processed through the F. My whole goal would be to live until I could see how all this played out.

I wouldnt set out to be a raider but I can understand the mentality.
____________________________________
"What the hell do you mean its NOT the zombie apocalypse? I just shot two people over by the vending machines!!"
Im a writer; my posts are used for gathering "research info". If I dont make sense, think from that angle. If I still dont it might be Im not very good at it.

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