Everything a spark? Gathering intelligence.

[the_alias]

Welcome to the mid point of 2020.

2020 where everything can be filmed and recorded on high definition phones.

Where every violent incident that the Police are involved in now has the potential to spark large scale civil disorder and unrest.

I want this thread to serve as a discussion place for intelligence avenues to help be aware of potential spikes of protests that become civil disorder.

Some opening questions to drive this thread:

- Why do some events trigger nationwide protest and damage whereas some do not?
- What factors are important in spreading the outrage (media role, nature of the incident?)
- How can we stay on top of local developments and actions of protestors who can move fluidly?
- What practical steps are you taking to stay abreast of things?

[PistolPete]

The spark bit is really interesting, and exceedingly hard to predict. Take two events and the associated people that have been put on pedestals in my area- the incident with Michael Brown, who launched the Ferguson demonstrations and the "hands up, don't shoot!" chants that still happen today, and the McCloskeys, who became enough of a symbol of castle law they were invited to speak at the RNC. Both incidents as they were framed by the people promoting them were predominately lies. Michael Brown never had his hands up when he was shot, evidence shows he was reaching inside the police car. Neither the McCloskey's persons nor property was in any danger from demonstrators, they chose to escalate an otherwise peaceful (although trespassing) situation to the point where they were charged with crimes. From all accounts, both the McCloskeys and Brown were not admired citizens in their communities that acted stupid in a given moment and now they are elevated to the level of hero through manipulation of the story. Both should have been non-stories and there are dozens of similar events that didn't turn into huge issues.

Neither was a very good case to support the agenda attached, yet both were launched into the national media and the figures and their stories became rally points for people of a given persuasion. At some point the facts don't matter, it's perception that matters. So that's what's most important in these moments, what gets mass outrage and what doesn't. And try as I may, I cannot predict what will and what won't. Look at the recent example of Daniel Prude- the incident happened in March and there was no widespread outrage. But then in early September it suddenly starts trending on social media and people take to the streets in outrage. Who could have predicted that? Why did the incident not draw a firestorm but later on the department's handling did? It doesn't make a lot of sense.

The only rational response is to be prepared for any incident to go off the rails. Keep an eye on what's trending, and whether it seems to you it's an incident that's outrageous or not, beware of anything that gets the muggles fired up.

[the_alias]

Good observation Pete - I guess what I'm looking at is there are things within these incidents we can see that trend to them becoming higher profile and more sustained media coverage and more likely to spark disorder

- Racial elements - a white autistic 13 year old was shot by Salt Lake City police recently and whilst this has done the news rounds it hasn't sparked any real violence.

- Clear video footage - the black paramedic who was killed in a bad Police raid on faulty evidence is another egregious issue but perhaps did not become as large in scale because there was no video evidence.

[raptor2]

Some opening questions to drive this thread:

- Why do some events trigger nationwide protest and damage whereas some do not?
- What factors are important in spreading the outrage (media role, nature of the incident?)

Good topic.

IMO there is a clear narrative that is necessary for the MSM to cover an issue. The MSM does to some extent pull the trigger on violence and outrage.
It is very difficult within constraints of the ZS to describe these. That said I think we see the same thing.

According to the MSM:
1. An event is only violent if a certain disfavored political direction is the instigator of the violence.
2. In the event that it is not certain that the disfavored political faction did not cause the violence then say they likely caused by that faction.
3. In the event that the favored faction caused the violence then it is not violence but rather justified peaceful protest and the disfavored faction was guilty because of past abuses that justified the non-violent peaceful violent acts. Then point towards an event that fits the preferred narrative to distract.

Despite the derogatory opinion of the general public as whole by the "intelligentsia/sophisticated/educated people" the vast majority of the people are not fooled by this approach. They may or may not agree with the message but it is likely evident to most people that mis-information is occurring for someone's benefit.

I offer this Gallup poll to back up my above statement.
https://knightfoundation.org/reports/am ... democracy/

I think that a part of the turmoil is due to the abject mistrust and confusion caused not by the events but by the false narratives that people are seeing. My logic for this claim is simple. When there is potential bad news and limited or biased information is all that is available a lot of unanswered questions come to mind. Human nature is such that the general response to unanswered fears and questions is to assume the worst. Human nature tends to fill in holes with negative activity. People tend to assume the worst.

My $.02.

[Blast]

- How can we stay on top of local developments and actions of protestors who can move fluidly?
- What practical steps are you taking to stay abreast of things?

Sparks are really obvious...in hindsight. Before & during they can be a lot more hidden and so one really has to be observant and ready at all times. I travel around the major cities of Texas (Houston, Austin, Dallas) quite a bit and some of those places are real tinderboxes. To keep up on what's happening I have both CB and shortwave radios in my vehicle. The CB is good for trucker reports warning of closed road. The shortwave is simply a $25 Baofeng UV-5R with a magnetically-mounted roof antenna and it's programmed to pick up local, unencrypted, emergency dispatch channels.

You can find out your local police/fire/EMS frequencies from RadioReference.com. Unforunately, now days many of those frequencies are encrypted and so the cheap UV-5R can't decode them. Those require a much more expensive police scanner. Luckily in Texas the cities still have a lot of non-encrypted EMS channels.

Of course, if you have a smartphone there are all sorts of good apps for listening to police/EMS broadcasts. Most of these apps will find the station nearest you if you give it access to your location information. Being audio, they don't burn through a huge amount of data but it's something to be aware of. Also, be sure to have a battery backup for your phone. You don't want it dead during an emergency.

One last source of information, though very unreliable, is Twitter. If you follow the hot topic hashtags for your location you might get some head's up. However, more and more a lot of false information is being posted there as part of the information warfare.
-Blast

[MPMalloy]

- How can we stay on top of local developments and actions of protestors who can move fluidly?
- What practical steps are you taking to stay abreast of things?

Sparks are really obvious...in hindsight. Before & during they can be a lot more hidden and so one really has to be observant and ready at all times. I travel around the major cities of Texas (Houston, Austin, Dallas) quite a bit and some of those places are real tinderboxes. To keep up on what's happening I have both CB and shortwave radios in my vehicle. The CB is good for trucker reports warning of closed road. The shortwave is simply a $25 Baofeng UV-5R with a magnetically-mounted roof antenna and it's programmed to pick up local, unencrypted, emergency dispatch channels.

You can find out your local police/fire/EMS frequencies from RadioReference.com. Unforunately, now days many of those frequencies are encrypted and so the cheap UV-5R can't decode them. Those require a much more expensive police scanner. Luckily in Texas the cities still have a lot of non-encrypted EMS channels.

Of course, if you have a smartphone there are all sorts of good apps for listening to police/EMS broadcasts. Most of these apps will find the station nearest you if you give it access to your location information. Being audio, they don't burn through a huge amount of data but it's something to be aware of. Also, be sure to have a battery backup for your phone. You don't want it dead during an emergency.

One last source of information, though very unreliable, is Twitter. If you follow the hot topic hashtags for your location you might get some head's up. However, more and more a lot of false information is being posted there as part of the information warfare.
-Blast

For recharging on the go, I like Anker products. I also keep 12v cords around.

[quazi]

I suspect time since the last incident is a major factor in whether another incident causes mass protests/riots/political actions and the like. I'm not talking about specifically the issues that are causing the civil unrest right now, but things that get people up in arms in general. If something similar to what made people mad a few weeks ago happens people are primed to get mad all over again.

[raptor2]

I am posting as an example for discussion here to support the OP's title ..."Everything is a spark"

Facts 2 LASD were shot in an ambush.
(Caution graphic)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1304993095725932545

Most normal people would be shocked and horrified by the random shooting of 2 LEO's. In normal times the city officials would at least pay lip service to being shocked and horrified by this type of behavior.
That and any group that may be linked to that activity would also pay lip service and condemn it.
Not in 2020 appently.

In this instance however there was jubilation and a statement supporting the shooting by an elected official of "chickens come home to roost" followed by "peaceful protesters" showing up at the hospital where the LEOs were taken and blocking the entrance and exits of the hospital.
(caution NWS)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1305047189572513792

So today even a double shooting of LEOs ambush style can spark a protest...in this case the protest was due to the fact that the LEOs survived...
and the community including city officials which employ them wanted them dead.

We are in a very dangerous time.
I expect to see a lot more of this type of "revenge" violence regardless of the November results.
I also expect to see very little in the way prosecution of the miscreants.

[MPMalloy]

From Visual Capitalist: Mapping Civil Unrest in the United States (2000–2020)

As usual, VC is af.

[raptor2]

From Visual Capitalist: Mapping Civil Unrest in the United States (2000–2020)

As usual, VC is af.

Interesting thank you.

I noted that it starts with a 2001 Mardi Gras riot in Seattle

Seriously if you are rioting at a Mardi Gras celebration; you have missed the meaning of Mardi Gras completely and deserve to lose your Mardi Gras privileges for life.

[NT2C]

From Visual Capitalist: Mapping Civil Unrest in the United States (2000–2020)

As usual, VC is af.

Interesting thank you.

I noted that it starts with a 2001 Mardi Gras riot in Seattle

Seriously if you are rioting at a Mardi Gras celebration; you have missed the meaning of Mardi Gras completely and deserve to lose your Mardi Gras privileges for life.

And no baby in their king cake!

[CG]

From Visual Capitalist: Mapping Civil Unrest in the United States (2000–2020)

As usual, VC is af.

Interesting thank you.

I noted that it starts with a 2001 Mardi Gras riot in Seattle

Seriously if you are rioting at a Mardi Gras celebration; you have missed the meaning of Mardi Gras completely and deserve to lose your Mardi Gras privileges for life.

And no baby in their king cake!

Maybe that’s why they were rioting!

[raptor2]

From Visual Capitalist: Mapping Civil Unrest in the United States (2000–2020)

As usual, VC is af.

Interesting thank you.

I noted that it starts with a 2001 Mardi Gras riot in Seattle

Seriously if you are rioting at a Mardi Gras celebration; you have missed the meaning of Mardi Gras completely and deserve to lose your Mardi Gras privileges for life.

And no baby in their king cake!

Maybe that’s why they were rioting!

When there is no baby in the king cake you look for the person holding it in their mouth or choking on it.

[MPMalloy]

And no baby in their king cake![/quote]I'm glad I looked that up

[NT2C]

Interesting thank you.

I noted that it starts with a 2001 Mardi Gras riot in Seattle

Seriously if you are rioting at a Mardi Gras celebration; you have missed the meaning of Mardi Gras completely and deserve to lose your Mardi Gras privileges for life.

And no baby in their king cake!

Maybe that’s why they were rioting!

When there is no baby in the king cake you look for the person holding it in their mouth or choking on it.

Often identified by their festive purple Mardi Gras face color.