The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:09 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:49 pm
...but you use what you got.
Don't overlook this mind set in whatever your doing folks :D

You'd be surprised.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by M813 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:12 am

I have a set of Steiner binoculars with a built-in compass but I'd still like a small handheld job.

I have dividers, parallel rulers etc. I can run a mo-board and DR on charts but you still need a periodic fix as the "circle of uncertainty" widens. That's where celestial nav would be handy and I'm learning from scratch which as you said, it more difficult. I'll focus on the noonsite first.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor2 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:00 pm

The davis Mk 3 is a good simple sextant. It is simple, accurate and usable. At $40 a bargain They also sell a kit. Remember current sight reduction tables are necessary. They make apps with all the data but it negates the purpose of a fail safe back up if you rely on electronic tables.
https://www.celestaire.com/product/davi ... 3-sextant/

I used one of these for hand bearings for years. I do prefer the binocs now.
https://www.ebay.com/p/691235447

YMMV my $.02.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:20 am

From NPR: Man Charged In Shooting Of 2 L.A. Sheriff's Deputies

Also: The MGM shooting has been settled for $800,000,000.00 That's eight hundred million dollars.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor2 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:12 pm

williaty wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:05 pm
I know way more people than I expected who have been going to the protests this year. Lots of people who have never done a political thing in their lives have been out there in facemasks and helmets for half the summer. Every single one of them works a white-collar job. Most of their jobs are letting them take PTO or Flex Time and leave work early to go to the protests so long as they make sure they're not missing a meeting or leaving a facility unstaffed. Ages of people I know personally range from 22 to 53. None of them are a minority. Most of them are women. At least here, the demographics are different this time which is another reason I don't think this one is going to settle down as quickly as it has in prior years.
With the above in mind.


I was reading this study on the 2018 election and the violence around that time:
Terrorism Effects on Violent Partisan Attitudes.pptx
https://www.dropbox.com/s/c92444mx4l0ln ... .pptx?dl=0

I also saw this opinion piece which was using the article as a citation.
Note obviously politics at this site.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... nce-424157
our research [indicates)that violent events tend to increase public approval of political violence—potentially creating a vicious cycle even if violence is sparked in only a few spots.
All together, about 1 in 5 Americans with a strong political affiliation {to either party} says they are quite willing to endorse violence if the other party wins the presidency.
ideological extremes of each party are two to four times more apt to see violence as justified than their party’s mainstream members.
Moreover, the notable increase in violent views in the past year continues a worrisome trend. Between 2017 and 2019, our YouGov survey data showed a marked 9-point increase in the percentage of partisans who believe it would be at least “a little bit” justified for their own party to use violence to advance their political goals today.
A quick summary:
1. Violent behavior has been shown to normalizes violence which leads to more violence. (i.e. lots of people who have never done it are now participating in street violence)
2. An increasing number of people are willing to endorse violence if their party does not win.
3. Extremists are most likely to justify violence (that should not be a surprise).
4. The fear of violence is clearly a mainstream thought at this point.


The article does point to a possible way to reduce the violence
No lesson in the study of democratic breakdowns rings more clearly than that political leaders play the central role in fanning—or containing—political polarization and extremism. (snip)

Recent research on the United States reaffirms this timeless truth: Leaders play an essential role in fueling the fire or extinguishing the flames of violence among their followers. Preliminary studies show that messages from redacted or redacted denouncing all violence can reduce mass approval of violence.

Everyone in a position of leadership in a democracy—whether in a neighborhood organization, a municipality, a political party, the Congress or the White House—has an obligation to renounce violence and explicitly dissuade their followers from turning to violent tactics or threats. Further, political leaders have a solemn responsibility to uphold and urge their followers to adhere to the essential norms of democracy, including the principles that the voters should freely decide who shall rule, and all valid votes should be counted toward that decision.




In other words doing something like this is important to reinforce the fact that violence is not an acceptable social norm.
williaty wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:05 pm
Still trying to convince everyone that with so much anti-protestor violence coming from other citizens this is not the time to be out on the street but that's not getting much traction.

Be aware, keep you head on a swivel. That and condemn violence as urge others not to engage in violence.
Duco Ergo Sum


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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by M813 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:47 am

@raptor- To your point:
1. Violent behavior has been shown to normalizes violence which leads to more violence. (i.e. lots of people who have never done it are now participating in street violence)
I have this...theory or feeling or vibe (for lack of a better adjective) that we've been at relative peace in this country for so long that the people now who are um...experimenting(?) with violence are clumsy and very bad at it. Our first Civil War was regimented and fairly organized once it got going. The CSA was poor and uniforms were in short supply. Many soldiers fought in civilian clothes and some even barefoot but they were skilled and organized.

I think internal conflict this time will look like anarchistic mob level violence. People stumbling with torches and pitchforks with little organization or unity. I think we're going to look very stupid.

Referring back to one of City Prepper's videos where he asked: "Will you hunker down, bug out or join up?" My decision is this: I do not condone the violence and both sides are so deeply flawed that I cannot bring myself to ally or fight with either of them. Thus, my decision is hunker down, then bug out.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by majorhavoc » Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:00 pm



One thing that was implied in this video, but not expressly discussed: hiding at least some your firearms outside of your home (if circumstances allow) following the initial declaration of martial law. Depending on where you live, authorities coming to seize your firearms may occur well before the need to have those weapons arises.

One point that was expressly discussed: violently resisting soldiers who arrive at your doorstep to seize your weapons is a stupid hill to die on.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor2 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:07 pm

M813 wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:47 am
Referring back to one of City Prepper's videos where he asked: "Will you hunker down, bug out or join up?" My decision is this: I do not condone the violence and both sides are so deeply flawed that I cannot bring myself to ally or fight with either of them. Thus, my decision is hunker down, then bug out.
A reasonable desire.

But...It has been shown many times that in a civil war anyone who tries to remain neutral is preyed upon by both sides.

I offer as an examples:
The Bosnian Civil war. Srebrenica & the Siege of Sarajevo
Rwanda genocide of 1994
Syrian Civil War
Missouri in the US Civil War

That and you say bug out. Foreign countries are not likely to welcome US "refugees". Indeed even other areas of the US may not welcome such people.
M813 wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:47 am
@raptor- To your point:
I have this...theory or feeling or vibe (for lack of a better adjective) that we've been at relative peace in this country for so long that the people now who are um...experimenting(?) with violence are clumsy and very bad at it. Our first Civil War was regimented and fairly organized once it got going. The CSA was poor and uniforms were in short supply. Many soldiers fought in civilian clothes and some even barefoot but they were skilled and organized.

I think internal conflict this time will look like anarchistic mob level violence. People stumbling with torches and pitchforks with little organization or unity. I think we're going to look very stupid.
I agree. I also do not approve of or condone violence the sole exception is in lawful self defense

This violence will not be like the 1860 civil war with clearly defined alliances. This is more likely to look like an urban battle ground with people fleeing to the country side and cities with less violence. Tit for tat incidents of violence as well an escalation of violence.

Which again brings us back to the point of fleeing or choosing sides.

Personally I do not like "If/then" decisions. I do not like being boxed into a response. The situation remains fluid and is likely to remain fluid for some time.

Some states are better off in terms of organization than other states and I could see some states fall into complete chaos. I could also see some states in effect going to war with federal forces ala fort sumpter and the Army of Northern Virgina. We have that to lesser extent now withe the violence in Oregon. CA and WA are not far behind. For instance you could see AZ, ID & WY shutting off the power and fuel feeds to those states if those state closed their borders.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by RonnyRonin » Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:42 pm

majorhavoc wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:00 pm
One thing that was implied in this video, but not expressly discussed: hiding at least some your firearms outside of your home (if circumstances allow) following the initial declaration of martial law.
I'm often beating this drum, but (mostly) for a more mundane reason. Often my friends poo-poo the idea of caches, or that anyone would come for their guns, but all it takes is a house fire. And if Murphy has anything to say about it, right after you lose most everything you own might be just the time you need a gun; not only because you are nominally homeless and more vulnerable than normal but also because these days your house burning down could also be indicative of more violence in your area.

I'm grateful I have a detached garage, simply to have shoes and a change of clothes and a little spare gear and food if I do lose the castle, but a friends house will also work. Diversify diversify, and if martial law sounds to tinfoil hatty for your friends don't be afraid to aim lower.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:57 pm

Both stories are political in nature. The former more than the latter:

From NPR: Trump 'Will Not Accept Any Result That Is Not A Victory,' 'Atlantic' Writer Says - 42 Minutes of audio at the webpage.

From NPR: Could U.S. Adversaries Exploit America's Moment Of Confusion?

All of this is making me sick, in part, because this isn't some TV show where I can just change the channel or turn it off.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by manacheck » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:43 am

All of this is making me sick, in part, because this isn't some TV show where I can just change the channel or turn it off.
What we have been seeing is a showing of politics as literal synonymous to civil war. The moment I made this connection in my own brain I wondered why it took me so long to connect the psy-ops dots.

I think to realize that this is what is going on helps, because realizing the crazy is coming from somewhere helps.

It helps too, because from there for me, at least, I immediately clicked onto "Wait, there's precedent in both recent and ancient history about this. It's shitty and concerning as heck, but it's also not a brand-new threat."

That citizens who aren't normally regular players are being targeted so heavily during the campaigns from a great number of fronts is, from my thoughts, why so many people are scared/angry and ramped up. I don't think this is so much different from manipulating/threatening any kids into being soldiers in any other warring country. It's classic "divide and conquer."

Looking at it that way, you can focus on reactionary preps to your best and let go of trying to figure out "who" is a threat until you're going crazy yourself. The government exists for fighting first and foremost; governing is its secondary hobby. We live here, so just do right by what you can do and maybe it'll help your neighbor calm down when they see you being calm yourself. Doesn't feel like this year is one where we have a chance to correct our government much, and focusing closer to home is better in that case, in the same way that for weathering a storm means doing your best in taking shelter and planning to clean up debris and damage when it's over with.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by williaty » Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:38 am

I am trying to respect the political rules here while also reporting on a thing that's actually happening. Mods, edit as needed if I screw up, please.

Today, in the large city near me, supporters of a politician have come out en masse to drive large pickup trucks flying various flags slowly along our main interstate, causing massive traffic jams. I've had the police scanner on in the background because of it. According to police dispatch, the lead vehicles in one of the convoys have started shooting at other, non-affiliated, cars, striking at least one through the windshield. Dispatch did not say anything about sending medical units, so I assume this means the occupants haven't been struck. At the moment, the police are still pursuing the trucks who are known to have fired. I may not hear any updates as I expect they'll switch to their encrypted incident-response channels soon.

Once this hits the twitterverse, you guys may see escalations of violence in your cities too.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by M813 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:53 am

But...It has been shown many times that in a civil war anyone who tries to remain neutral is preyed upon by both sides.
Which is why preppers advocate being the "gray man." I told my wife that this whole thing reminds me of that scene in "The Good, The Bad & The Ugly" where the hotel proprietor was yelling "Hooray, hooray for Dixie! Hurrah!" as the Confederate troops rolled by while muttering under his breath to his wife "Soon, Union troops will push the Confederates out. They have gold and silver for money, not these useless paper dollars."

My point being that the proprietor put on a face for whichever force occupied his town at that moment. Rather that put on faces, I greatly prefer to be completely absent from the scene but I'll do whatever I have to do if I'm caught up in things.

I agree and I am prepared that other nations will not accept US refugees from a civil conflict. To your point that some cities and states will be better prepared, not only that but I suspect that they will become heavily armed, isolated enclaves and will be reluctant to admit evacuees from cities and states that are experiencing widespread unrest. (The "Don't bring your screwed up values into my state" effect.)

The statement that energy producing states could withhold power from chaotic states is concerning and makes me glad that I pursued my off-grid energy plan. I'm really wishing I had the money for that second battery bank though. :ohdear: I also expect that truckers will be reluctant to put their lives on the line to transport foodstuffs to grocery stores in cities where law has collapsed. So, no power and no food will cause extreme violence and a mass exodus. Will this lead to the fabled "golden hordes?"

My wife and I have fresh passports. If no other nation will have us, I know what state we will travel to, which I believe will be stable and fairly independent. I'll face the same question as to whether they will admit us.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by MPMalloy » Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:55 am

This is just one reason why I am hesitant to spend more on "bug-in" preps. I just don't know :(

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by woodsghost » Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:32 am

Just my opinion, but I think it is wise to be ready to bug out or bug in. The situation dictates.

I feel it is wise to talk to some friends and find out if you can show up at their door and let them know they can show up on your door if things get weird.

While I think everyone should be prepared to "be an island" or "lone wolf" if the situation dictates, I think people in tough times/places are better off banding together with family/tribal units.

Just my opinion.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor2 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:39 am

williaty wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:38 am

According to police dispatch, the lead vehicles in one of the convoys have started shooting at other, non-affiliated, cars, striking at least one through the windshield. Dispatch did not say anything about sending medical units, so I assume this means the occupants haven't been struck. At the moment, the police are still pursuing the trucks who are known to have fired. I may not hear any updates as I expect they'll switch to their encrypted incident-response channels soon.

Once this hits the twitterverse, you guys may see escalations of violence in your cities too.
Any updates on this? I have not seen news stories about any such violence.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by M813 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:02 am

woodsghost wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:32 am
Just my opinion, but I think it is wise to be ready to bug out or bug in. The situation dictates.

I feel it is wise to talk to some friends and find out if you can show up at their door and let them know they can show up on your door if things get weird.

While I think everyone should be prepared to "be an island" or "lone wolf" if the situation dictates, I think people in tough times/places are better off banding together with family/tribal units.

Just my opinion.
You're right of course,but there are budgetary limitations to consider when prepping for both scenarios.

I have no "in-real-life-friends" where I want to bug out to. None of my family or friends live in an area that I would consider to be "better" than where I am, except possibly my parents, who are in a small cabin in some mountains which is nice, but they aren't prepping. They have no food stocks and no source of off-grid power. The only thing they have going for them is that they are a "source" county for the state. All the water comes from the mountain that they live on. They have a clear stream running right through their back yard. At least they won't die of thirst.

I'm not planning some apocalyptic journey across a hellscape in my M813 5-ton to get to them.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by woodsghost » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:21 pm

M813 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:02 am
woodsghost wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:32 am
Just my opinion, but I think it is wise to be ready to bug out or bug in. The situation dictates.

I feel it is wise to talk to some friends and find out if you can show up at their door and let them know they can show up on your door if things get weird.

While I think everyone should be prepared to "be an island" or "lone wolf" if the situation dictates, I think people in tough times/places are better off banding together with family/tribal units.

Just my opinion.
You're right of course,but there are budgetary limitations to consider when prepping for both scenarios.

I have no "in-real-life-friends" where I want to bug out to. None of my family or friends live in an area that I would consider to be "better" than where I am, except possibly my parents, who are in a small cabin in some mountains which is nice, but they aren't prepping. They have no food stocks and no source of off-grid power. The only thing they have going for them is that they are a "source" county for the state. All the water comes from the mountain that they live on. They have a clear stream running right through their back yard. At least they won't die of thirst.

I'm not planning some apocalyptic journey across a hellscape in my M813 5-ton to get to them.
My comments were not aimed at anyone in particular, just based on conversations with local preppers or psudo-preppers. And they apply equally to me as to anyone else. I'm certainly not any "super Prepper" and I certainly have big holes that budgets or expertise have left.

M813, you certainly nailed some of the big issues facing preppers in America.
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by williaty » Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:37 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:39 am
williaty wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:38 am

According to police dispatch, the lead vehicles in one of the convoys have started shooting at other, non-affiliated, cars, striking at least one through the windshield. Dispatch did not say anything about sending medical units, so I assume this means the occupants haven't been struck. At the moment, the police are still pursuing the trucks who are known to have fired. I may not hear any updates as I expect they'll switch to their encrypted incident-response channels soon.

Once this hits the twitterverse, you guys may see escalations of violence in your cities too.
Any updates on this? I have not seen news stories about any such violence.
For reasons no one yet understands, the guy leading that particular train of pickups chose to shoot up a semi cab, not a bunch of other cars as originally reported. He turned himself in 2 days later and has his arraignment on this coming Tuesday. Another group of the same affiliation started a 2nd armed encounter in a different part of the city but this never progressed beyond pointing guns at people who's skin was a different color. Since no shots were fired, CPD seems to be taking the position that they're far too busy to sort out something this stupid, so they're letting it drop. Finally, at one of the muster points just outside the city, one of the pickup truck train drivers molested a 7 year old girl. That criminal is still at large and the local police (not the city police) are pursuing that matter.

ETA: It's also worth mentioning that the pickup truck parade down the middle lane of the interstate at speeds ranging from 15mph to 45mph resulted in over 2 dozen accidents spread out around the city. Any one of those could have exploded into a shooting match from either side or just been a fatal accident. With semis in the high lane still doing 70mph, people trying to get onto the interstate were forced to dive through small gaps in between lifted pickup trucks, resulting in a lot of people ending up in the high lane doing 50mph slower than the truck traffic already in it. It's a miracle no one was killed.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor2 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:57 pm

williaty wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:37 pm
raptor2 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:39 am
williaty wrote:
Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:38 am

According to police dispatch, the lead vehicles in one of the convoys have started shooting at other, non-affiliated, cars, striking at least one through the windshield. Dispatch did not say anything about sending medical units, so I assume this means the occupants haven't been struck. At the moment, the police are still pursuing the trucks who are known to have fired. I may not hear any updates as I expect they'll switch to their encrypted incident-response channels soon.

Once this hits the twitterverse, you guys may see escalations of violence in your cities too.
Any updates on this? I have not seen news stories about any such violence.
For reasons no one yet understands, the guy leading that particular train of pickups chose to shoot up a semi cab, not a bunch of other cars as originally reported. He turned himself in 2 days later and has his arraignment on this coming Tuesday. Another group of the same affiliation started a 2nd armed encounter in a different part of the city but this never progressed beyond pointing guns at people who's skin was a different color. Since no shots were fired, CPD seems to be taking the position that they're far too busy to sort out something this stupid, so they're letting it drop. Finally, at one of the muster points just outside the city, one of the pickup truck train drivers molested a 7 year old girl. That criminal is still at large and the local police (not the city police) are pursuing that matter.

ETA: It's also worth mentioning that the pickup truck parade down the middle lane of the interstate at speeds ranging from 15mph to 45mph resulted in over 2 dozen accidents spread out around the city. Any one of those could have exploded into a shooting match from either side or just been a fatal accident. With semis in the high lane still doing 70mph, people trying to get onto the interstate were forced to dive through small gaps in between lifted pickup trucks, resulting in a lot of people ending up in the high lane doing 50mph slower than the truck traffic already in it. It's a miracle no one was killed.
Honestly that sounds like just a normal day in most cities.
https://www.fox9.com/news/is-u-s-crime- ... lis-effect

...and bit safer than some cities.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2020 ... r-2-5-2020
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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by williaty » Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:30 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:57 pm
Honestly that sounds like just a normal day in most cities.
https://www.fox9.com/news/is-u-s-crime- ... lis-effect

...and bit safer than some cities.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2020 ... r-2-5-2020
In the particular areas this happened, no, it's quite unusual. Other neighborhoods, sure. Where this stuff happened? Uh-uh.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by emclean » Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:01 am

raptor2 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:57 pm
...and bit safer than some cities.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2020 ... r-2-5-2020
Chicago is a special city....
nice place to visit, but glad that I don't share the state with it.

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Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by raptor2 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:32 am

emclean wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:01 am
raptor2 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:57 pm
...and bit safer than some cities.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2020 ... r-2-5-2020
Chicago is a special city....
nice place to visit, but glad that I don't share the state with it.
Hey the violence is not their fault! ... They tell us all time the violence is because the other states around them are the ones supplying the tools of violence and if they did what Chicago does Chicago would be the safest place in the world.
Duco Ergo Sum


raptor2 is the new profile name for raptor.
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emclean
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Location: NW Indiana

Re: The Coming Civil War - (Warning: No Politics)

Post by emclean » Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:41 pm

raptor2 wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:32 am
emclean wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:01 am
raptor2 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:57 pm
...and bit safer than some cities.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2020 ... r-2-5-2020
Chicago is a special city....
nice place to visit, but glad that I don't share the state with it.
Hey the violence is not their fault! ... They tell us all time the violence is because the other states around them are the ones supplying the tools of violence and if they did what Chicago does Chicago would be the safest place in the world.
I am doing my part, buying all the guns I can to keep them off the streets, but there is only so much one budget can do....

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