COVID-19 Chat Thread

This isn't going away anytime soon folks and it just made sense to consolidate all the COVID-19 stuff in one location.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:40 pm

Ioannes wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:24 pm
interesting...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/its-j ... spartanntp

I had a feeling something like this would come out. I've felt the virus was already out before populations outside China were taking any precautions.
That was just the first case detected. I am certain there were more than that.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Vicarious_Lee » Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:02 pm

Confucius wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:38 pm
Italy reported more deaths today than the worst day in China


Eesh
It's been almost two years since I posted anything on ZS, but I figured I'd give a VA hospital update based on a meeting we had about an hour ago:

(obligatory WHASSSSUUUUUUPPPP MY ZS BITCHES?????? :awesome:


VA is throttling back all elective admissions. I don't have the details of other units, but I'd imagine elective day surgeries, etc. are getting postponed until future notice. They're throttling back the use of PPE and trying to clear most bacterial isolation statuses on inpatient units in order to save the PPE in case of a shortage.

Units everywhere are basically closed to outside visitors, and ambulatory inpatients are told they're not allowed to go screw around in the cafeteria or canteen, etc. This isn't enforceable, but they're hoping to slow the spread.

All outpatient VA visits are asked to be converted to video call from home, or even just a telephone update.

This plan is in place for the next 6 weeks.

Personal notes:

Italy is screwed for all the reasons mentioned. This is otherwise a totally weak-ass virus. the good news is that 20% of people can have it and not have any symptoms at all. The bed news is that some of those 20% might work in ICUs and transmit it to really sick and weak people. The US is trying to drag it out so that as we all catch COVID 19, there won't be too many people that are too sick for our infrastructure to handle at the same time.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:10 pm

March Madness, like a lot of other events will now play to an empty stadium.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by wee drop o' bush » Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:13 pm

Hiya Lee :clap:

I suspect that tomorrow the Éire government will announce a progression into the Delay phase.
I’m not as sure about the UK, the Cheltenham Horse Racing Festival lasts until Friday :roll:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:17 pm

https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-roche ... understood

Some neighborhoods in New Rochelle is the first on sort of, not really lockdown in the US.

The one-mile-radius “containment zone” in the New York City suburb is scheduled to remain in effect until March 25. Schools, houses of worship and other "large gathering places” will remain closed during that time as officials work to sanitize the area, officials said. New York Gov. Cuomo added that the National Guard would be assisting the sanitation efforts and Northwell Health was setting up a satellite testing facility in the area.

Bramson said the National Guard would be deployed to the city "soon" but urged people not to be uneasy about their presence in neighborhoods as the Guard was in a military or police capacity. The mayor added that the Guard would perform functions such as delivering meals to students qualifying for free or reduced lunch but under quarantine or facing school cancellations.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:39 pm

Vicarious_Lee wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:02 pm
Confucius wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:38 pm
Italy reported more deaths today than the worst day in China. Eesh
It's been almost two years since I posted anything on ZS, but I figured I'd give a VA hospital update based on a meeting we had about an hour ago:

(obligatory WHASSSSUUUUUUPPPP MY ZS BITCHES?????? :awesome:


VA is throttling back all elective admissions. I don't have the details of other units, but I'd imagine elective day surgeries, etc. are getting postponed until future notice. They're throttling back the use of PPE and trying to clear most bacterial isolation statuses on inpatient units in order to save the PPE in case of a shortage.

Units everywhere are basically closed to outside visitors, and ambulatory inpatients are told they're not allowed to go screw around in the cafeteria or canteen, etc. This isn't enforceable, but they're hoping to slow the spread.

All outpatient VA visits are asked to be converted to video call from home, or even just a telephone update.

This plan is in place for the next 6 weeks.

Personal notes:

Italy is screwed for all the reasons mentioned. This is otherwise a totally weak-ass virus. the good news is that 20% of people can have it and not have any symptoms at all. The bed news is that some of those 20% might work in ICUs and transmit it to really sick and weak people. The US is trying to drag it out so that as we all catch COVID 19, there won't be too many people that are too sick for our infrastructure to handle at the same time.

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It's good to see ya, Lee!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by norcalprep » Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:57 pm

Coronavirus's lifespan on surfaces, posted yesterday by NIH, not peer reviewed yet. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20033217v1

The relevant bit:
We found that viable virus could be detected in aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel.
So definitely keep up the cleaning regimen!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:02 pm

https://apnews.com/6624f3e73ae7e94ca867d01caca8cffd

Taking drastic action Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced he is cutting off travel from Europe to the U.S. and moving to ease the economic cost of a viral pandemic that is roiling global financial markets and disrupting the daily lives of Americans.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:16 pm

The NBA has suspended it's season after a player tested positive for the virus.

Based upon all the cancellation of sporting events and other events we are likely looking at a 1-2+ points of unemployment rise this quarter. I'm actually being generous. It will probably be much worse than that if the trend continues.

I have a friend with a restaurant. Business is bad, very bad, like laying off employees bad.

With the travel ban from Europe, China and RoK in place tourism to the US will go from huge fall to off a cliff. The second, third and fourth level impacts will be nothing short of astonishing.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by moab » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:33 pm

Stercutus wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:16 pm
The NBA has suspended it's season after a player tested positive for the virus.

Based upon all the cancellation of sporting events and other events we are likely looking at a 1-2+ points of unemployment rise this quarter. I'm actually being generous. It will probably be much worse than that if the trend continues.

I have a friend with a restaurant. Business is bad, very bad, like laying off employees bad.

With the travel ban from Europe, China and RoK in place tourism to the US will go from huge fall to off a cliff. The second, third and fourth level impacts will be nothing short of astonishing.
I agree. I think it's upon us. We live next to LAX and fully expect some sort of quarantine. My sons college goes all online only on friday.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by majorhavoc » Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:38 pm

Actor Tom Hanks and wife Rita Wilson test positive for Coronavirus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/busi ... e=Homepage

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Halfapint » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:03 pm

Welp, travel and trade banned with Europe.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:54 pm

Halfapint wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:03 pm
Welp, travel and trade banned with Europe.
Just travel from the EU.

The UK is not closed off for the time being.

Trade of goods is not restricted.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Confucius » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:06 pm

raptor wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:54 pm
Halfapint wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:03 pm
Welp, travel and trade banned with Europe.
Just travel from the EU.

The UK is not closed off for the time being.

Trade of goods is not restricted.
You could be forgiven for making that mistake if you listened to the speech announcing travel restrictions: "and these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval. Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing."

Further clarifications have said that it doesn't apply to trade.


Idk, a month ago, this may have helped a lot, but there's clearly a pretty big foothold in the US already. I doubt if it will make a big difference. Exempting the UK doesn't make a ton of sense either, they're over 400 confirmed cases...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:25 pm

Exempting the UK means EU passengers can still get to the US through the UK. The key (not exclusive) passenger routes to and from the US excluding the UK, go through Italy, The Netherlands, France & Germany.

People not goods are restricted.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by wee drop o' bush » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:43 am

Coronavirus: Republic of Ireland to close schools and colleges https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51850811
Éire is now in the Delay phase: Schools, Colleges and childcare facilities are to close (currently till March 29th)
Indoor gatherings of 100+ and outdoor gatherings of 500+ are to be cancelled :shock:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by max v » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 am

Has it occurred to anyone that the virus in Italy could be a different, more agressive strain? Instead of bashing Italy and their supposedly inferior healthcare, we would do better to learn from their experience and see that it doesn't repeat itself elsewhere.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:52 am

max v wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 am
Has it occurred to anyone that the virus in Italy could be a different, more agressive strain? Instead of bashing Italy and their supposedly inferior healthcare, we would do better to learn from their experience and see that it doesn't repeat itself elsewhere.
I am not sure anyone here is bashing their health care system?

As for a different strain that is very likely since viruses are living organisms they frequently evolve as they spread. The annual influenza and "common cold" has literally hundreds of various strains.

The different strains have been brought up several times.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/healt ... fc20450a6f

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:12 am

raptor wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:52 am
max v wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 am
Has it occurred to anyone that the virus in Italy could be a different, more agressive strain? Instead of bashing Italy and their supposedly inferior healthcare, we would do better to learn from their experience and see that it doesn't repeat itself elsewhere.
I am not sure anyone here is bashing their health care system?

As for a different strain that is very likely since viruses are living organisms they frequently evolve as they spread. The annual influenza and "common cold" has literally hundreds of various strains.

The different strains have been brought up several times.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/healt ... fc20450a6f
By most accounts Italy has a good healthcare system with well trained staff, modern facilities and adequate funding for normal times. I think the original explanation offered was correct or close to the mark.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by max v » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:23 am

raptor wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:52 am
max v wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 am
Has it occurred to anyone that the virus in Italy could be a different, more agressive strain? Instead of bashing Italy and their supposedly inferior healthcare, we would do better to learn from their experience and see that it doesn't repeat itself elsewhere.
I am not sure anyone here is bashing their health care system?

As for a different strain that is very likely since viruses are living organisms they frequently evolve as they spread. The annual influenza and "common cold" has literally hundreds of various strains.

The different strains have been brought up several times.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/healt ... fc20450a6f
Not necessarily bashing on here but in the media in general, it seems like Italy is being portrayed as Europe's own 3rd world country.

Northern Italy is actually one of the richest regions in the EU and their hospitals and medical staff some of the best in the world. This of course is entirely my opinion and should be treated as such, before anyone draws their blade.

I was denied access to your link so can't comment on it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:29 am

The Department of Defense has initiated a series of travel limitations related to service members and their families. Effective Friday, all troops, Pentagon civilian employees and family members traveled to areas designated as “Warning Level 3” – Italy, South Korea and China – will “stop movement” for the next 60 days. Areas designated “Warning Level 2” – Japan, Bahrain and the United Kingdom – will be prohibited for family members of troops and civilian personnel for two months.
Major League Soccer has suspended their season for 30 Days.

The SEC has cancelled their annual basketball tournament. I believe the NCAA will end up doing the same instead of just rolling without fans. The NCAA tourney is worth about a billion dollars on paper for ticket/ concession sales and TV rights. The SEC much less.
Not necessarily bashing on here but in the media in general, it seems like Italy is being portrayed as Europe's own 3rd world country.
That is the media's job in 2020, to bash everything that scares them or they don't like. Rational thinkers need not apply.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 am

max v wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:23 am
raptor wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:52 am
max v wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 am
Has it occurred to anyone that the virus in Italy could be a different, more agressive strain? Instead of bashing Italy and their supposedly inferior healthcare, we would do better to learn from their experience and see that it doesn't repeat itself elsewhere.
I am not sure anyone here is bashing their health care system?

As for a different strain that is very likely since viruses are living organisms they frequently evolve as they spread. The annual influenza and "common cold" has literally hundreds of various strains.

The different strains have been brought up several times.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/healt ... fc20450a6f
Not necessarily bashing on here but in the media in general, it seems like Italy is being portrayed as Europe's own 3rd world country.

Northern Italy is actually one of the richest regions in the EU and their hospitals and medical staff some of the best in the world. This of course is entirely my opinion and should be treated as such, before anyone draws their blade.

I was denied access to your link so can't comment on it.
A quote of the relevant section discussing the 2 major variations of the virus:
First, the panel talked about the virus and its most recent developments.

Along with age and underlying health conditions, panelists said smoking and obesity are also risk factors, and there are 2 strains of the virus.

“A lot of people know recently there is an 'S' form and an 'L' form and they have a very different infectability rate and how serious the illness is," UTMB Vice President and Chief Medical & Clinical Innovation Officer Dr. Gulshan Sharma said.

They also talked about the research they are doing.

“To establish a diagnostic test, that work is underway right now, and we hope to have that completed very, very soon," LeDuc said.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Stercutus » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:05 pm

In news of the improbably optimistic, the Olympic Torch was lit today in Greece and is on it's way to Tokyo.



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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by JT42 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:35 pm

max v wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:23 am
Not necessarily bashing on here but in the media in general, it seems like Italy is being portrayed as Europe's own 3rd world country.

Northern Italy is actually one of the richest regions in the EU and their hospitals and medical staff some of the best in the world. This of course is entirely my opinion and should be treated as such, before anyone draws their blade.
Haven't seen much bashing myself. The reports I've read coming out of Italy is that the system went from being usable to completely overwhelmed in just a day or two. As soon as the system is overwhelmed, the amount of good care that can be given drops and deaths increase. Human beings tend not to grasp the full power of the exponential function, or how little extra capacity our (US & Italy, and much of the world) health systems have.

It will happen here, too -- that is, hospitals becoming overwhelmed and doctors having to make "difficult decisions" about which patients get (for example) a respirator and which ones just have to be left to die.

The Medium has a fantastic analysis on what happened in China, and data showing good decisions some countries (Hong Kong, Singapore) made to lessen the effects and stop the spread, and the bad decisions some (western) countries made. It also discusses the importance of "flattening the curve," i.e. it's too late to contain the outbreak, but in order to decrease the fatality rate we need to slow the spread as much as possible so as to limit (hopefully eliminate) the excess burden on the healthcare system.

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