COVID-19 Chat Thread

This isn't going away anytime soon folks and it just made sense to consolidate all the COVID-19 stuff in one location.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by majorhavoc » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:11 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:52 pm

Nooo! Not poor Peanut Butter!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:28 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN20K2MG

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany is at the beginning of a coronavirus epidemic after new cases sprung up that can no longer be traced to the virus’s original source in China, Health Minister Jens Spahn said on Wednesday.
A total of five new cases of coronavirus in the west and south of Germany - taking the country’s total to around 20 - meant the disease appeared to be moving to a new phase, Spahn told a news conference, urging health authorities and employers to review their pandemic planning.
“The infection chains are partially no longer trackable, and that is a new thing,” Spahn said.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:31 pm

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/26/ ... -tells-us/

A seriously ill Solano County resident appears to be the nation’s first case of coronavirus infection from an unknown source, fueling concern that the virus could spread undetected in the general population.
Unlike other cases, the person did not recently return from a foreign country and is not known to have had contact with a person who was sick or infected, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:34 pm

CONFIRMED cases in states rose to 60 today
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:19 pm

flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:34 pm
CONFIRMED cases in states rose to 60 today.
The regular, normal Flu kills so much more, but never gets this kind of press. :roll:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by majorhavoc » Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:47 am

MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:19 pm
flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:34 pm
CONFIRMED cases in states rose to 60 today.
The regular, normal Flu kills so much more, but never gets this kind of press. :roll:
True. And it turns out that three of the most effective measures to combat the spread of influenza (excellent hand hygiene, covering your nose and mouth when coughing/sneezing and staying home when sick) are also very effective against Covid-19. Technical preps are important but forget the simple stuff.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:56 am

Japan has announced that all schools nationwide will be closed until after their spring break.

I will post a link later.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by JayceSlayn » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:00 am

I'd argue that it is probably time that this thread should drop the "Wuhan" portion of the title. :cry: Not just that it has reached a global scale, but while "what was the catalyst for this outbreak" will undoubtedly be a question for the history books to analyze, we should still avoid stigmatizing an entire region which likely had little to do with its origin and has yet suffered the most from it.
MPMalloy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:19 pm
flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:34 pm
CONFIRMED cases in states rose to 60 today.
The regular, normal Flu kills so much more, but never gets this kind of press. :roll:
raptor wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:04 pm
[...]
I will be candid about CONVID 2019. Strictly opinion here not fact.

IMO this is not I repeat not TEOTAWKI again opinion It will be at worst equal to a bad flu season in terms of deaths. So we will in effect have 2 bad flu seasons this year. It will suck if you get COVID 19 but it will not likely kill you. You may feel so bad you may wish it kills you, but it likely will not be anything except an annoyance.
[...]
I would agree that for the great majority of people who may end up contracting COVID-19, it will probably not be much worse than another cold or flu (data subject to change, but that looks to be fairly solid now). Supportive treatment, like how we deal with most cold/flu cases, should be just fine - you will recover without lasting injury. There is a danger however, that the small shift in decimal place of case mortality from seasonal influenza to COVID-19 is a pretty significant increase.

Despite public health's best efforts: the disease burden from seasonal influenza does not get a lot of attention, but the fact remains that it continues to be a very serious public health problem. About 10% of the population develops symptomatic seasonal influenza each year, and it would be reasonable to assume COVID-19 is capable of the same order of infectivity. From the 30-ish million people that develop flu symptoms each year, it causes about 1-2% hospitalizations (300-600K), and about 0.1% deaths (30K). Granted that we don't have really reliable numbers for COVID-19, we could SWAG at a hospitalization rate of 5-10% (1.5-3M) and a fatality rate of 1-2% (300-600K).

While the greater fear and disruption caused by COVID-19 may significantly limit is actual infection (compared to if it was allowed to freely infect as many people as the flu does each year), these are (hopefully) near the top end of the scale of expectations for 2020. That would not be just a 2nd bad flu season however, it could be something like an additional 5-10 bad flu seasons in a single year. Hoping that the public awareness will significantly limit the actual spread of COVID-19 (and maybe cold/flu at the same time), maybe we'll be back to just 1-2 additional bad flu seasons in 2020. Again: young, healthy people seem likely to weather this just fine, but it could hit high-risk populations (older, frail, etc.) very hard.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by majorhavoc » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:26 am

Reports coming out of Japan and China this morning that some recovered Covid-19 patients released from quarantine are now testing positive again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus- ... 43284.html

Anyone else think this is starting to sound like a bad sci-fi movie?
Last edited by majorhavoc on Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:53 am


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:01 am


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by TN-Shooter » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:15 pm

2% death rate may not sound alarming.

But if everyone in US gets it.

2% x 300,000,000 = 6,000,000

That’s a lot of American deaths.
What if everyone was once a zombie but there was a human apocalypse?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:45 pm

TN-Shooter wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:15 pm
2% death rate may not sound alarming.

But if everyone in US gets it.

2% x 300,000,000 = 6,000,000

That’s a lot of American deaths.
Yes assuming everyone in the US gets it.

A more likely bad case scenario is ~ 1/4 of the population contracts it and about 2% die from it which is still 1.5 million people.
A more reasonable scenario is a death rate in the us 2x the worst death rate of the annual flu. So 56,000 x2 = ~ 100,000 people which BTW is ~ 3x car fatalities in any given year.

IMO if you want to model a worst case scenario (& honestly it is bad) look at the 1918 flu pandemic it had a 2% to 3% average mortality rate.

In 1918 the pandemic affected ~28% of the US became infected and of those approximately 0.48 to 0.64 percent of the population died.

Also remember that the 1918 flu had a very disparate death rate AND it came in 2 waves.

In some places however the death rates were staggering:
Several Pacific island territories were particularly hard-hit. The pandemic reached them from New Zealand, which was too slow to implement measures to prevent ships, such as the SS Talune, carrying the flu from leaving its ports. From New Zealand, the flu reached Tonga (killing 8% of the population), Nauru (16%), and Fiji (5%, 9,000 people).[95]

Worst affected was Western Samoa, formerly German Samoa, which had been occupied by New Zealand in 1914. 90% of the population was infected; 30% of adult men, 22% of adult women, and 10% of children died.



On the note I saw this. Either contracting the illness may not provide immunity or the people involved my not have fully recovered meaning 2 week quarantine after recovery may not be adequate.
A woman in Japan who contracted the new coronavirus and was released from hospital after recovering has tested positive again, officials said Thursday.

The case is the first time a patient apparently cleared of the virus has subsequently tested positive for it, a local official in Osaka said.
https://news.yahoo.com/japan-woman-test ... 31746.html
Odds: Pretty good. What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two ... contained/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by the_alias » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:58 pm

In 1918 the pandemic affected ~28% of the US became infected and of those approximately 0.48 to 0.64 percent of the population died.

Also remember that the 1918 flu had a very disparate death rate AND it came in 2 waves.
1918 America didn't have people criss-crossing the country between hotspots.

My buddies GF is in SanFran this week and will come back. I know business people in our office came in from Boston etc.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by wee drop o' bush » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:27 pm

The first case of Covid19 has been confirmed here in Northern Ireland.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:54 pm

the_alias wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:58 pm

1918 America didn't have people criss-crossing the country between hotspots.

Actually they had a LOT of travel cross country and cross ocean traffic in 1918.

That is what facilitated the spread of the flu.

WW-1 was ending and troops were coming home so there were troops held in close quarters and then were sent home to all parts of the globe.

Train terminals and port cities were hot points which spread the disease in the US. It was a perfect storm.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by JT42 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:06 pm

Everyone keeps saying the fatality rate of COVID-19 is 1 - 3 %, but the numbers just don't add up. The problem is people are calculating that using the formula: Deaths / Confirmed cases. For example, https://covid19info.live/ currently shows 82713 confirmed cases and 2813 deaths, with a fatality rate of 3.4%. But "Confirmed" cases includes people who are still ill. Some of those will die, many will recover. A more accurate calculation would not include the people who are still sick. Let's be optimistic here and say that someone can't be reinfected. So if you get sick there are two outcomes: You either die or you recover. Of that group, what percentage of people died? Using the current numbers there are 33261 people who have recovered and 2813 who have died. The game is over for those 33261 + 2813 people. The fatality rate is therefore 2813 / (33261 + 2813) = 7.8 %.

Some people are saying the numbers being reported for China are nowhere near accurate. Let's re-run the calculation with China's number excluded: 4215 confirmed, 69 deaths, 382 recovered. Doing the math the way everyone seems to be doing it paints a rosy picture: 69 / 4215 = 1.6% (Yea!) But again, that numbers assumes that all of the people who are currently sick (4215 - 69 - 283 = 3764) will recover. So let's not include them in the calculation. The fatality rate of those who have finished the game is: 69 / (69 + 382) = 15.3%. Uh-oh. That also gives credence to the unconfirmed reports that China is significantly under-reporting the number of fatalities (and overall cases.)

One glimmer of hope: It's been reported that 80% of the people who contract the virus have mild symptoms. If that's the case, it's quite possible that those cases aren't even being confirmed and therefore don't show up in the reported numbers, but fortunately if they did the calculated fatality rate would go down, so it may not be as bad as calculated above.

Revisiting the reinfection assumption above, if reinfections are possible then it's likely that the fatality rate would go up (i.e. you'd play the game again, with similar odds for making it through that round, but overall less odds of winning both rounds.)

What gets scary is when you use the numbers calculated above (7.8 - 15%) with some of the numbers being reported for possible infection rates (60-70% of the population within one year.)

On that web site linked above, be sure to click "Show More Graphs" to see how COVID-19 is playing out compared to a couple of past viruses (H1N1 Swine Flu and SARS.)


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by woodsghost » Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:01 pm

The market will climb back up there. The only question is "in 3 months or 30 years?" I'm not worried. I'm not happy to see it decline, but I'm really not worried.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:10 pm

woodsghost wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:01 pm
The market will climb back up there. The only question is "in 3 months or 30 years?" I'm not worried. I'm not happy to see it decline, but I'm really not worried.
Same here mostly. I hear today that this doesn't affect people like me. I didn't respond but, yes it does.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:34 pm

SA bans foreigners from an Umrah pilgrimage due to CoVid-19 - PRI-The World.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Confucius » Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:42 pm

TN-Shooter wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:15 pm
2% death rate may not sound alarming.

But if everyone in US gets it.

2% x 300,000,000 = 6,000,000

That’s a lot of American deaths.
That's 2% with relatively few infected. In China at least, upwards of 10% of infections ended up on ventilators. There's just not the medical infrastructure to support that if millions are infected.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by majorhavoc » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:03 pm

MPMalloy wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:10 pm
woodsghost wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:01 pm
The market will climb back up there. The only question is "in 3 months or 30 years?" I'm not worried. I'm not happy to see it decline, but I'm really not worried.
Same here mostly. I hear today that this doesn't affect people like me. I didn't respond but, yes it does.
My retirement date has been pushed back six years just over the course of that past four days. Now I may well claw back those six years over the coming weeks and months. But still, it's sobering to watch the effect it has on one's investments.

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