COVID-19 Chat Thread

This isn't going away anytime soon folks and it just made sense to consolidate all the COVID-19 stuff in one location.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by JayceSlayn » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:25 am

There is really no way to prevent people from panic buying PPE because of a vanishing* chance of coming in contact with the 2019-nCoV, but we should try to keep everything in perspective. I know this is not really the forum to discourage people from preparing for a disaster, but perhaps I will shift the suggestion slightly to: "we should buy our medical/infection PPE long before the panic buying begins".

The shutdown in China has already really cramped supply chains globally, for many varieties of products, but one which has already started to feel the effects is PPE. China has, of course, greatly increased their internal consumption of PPE, and a lot of it is made there, so hospitals in my area have already been notified to expect shortages of PPE. Hoarding of PPE by people who are very unlikely to use it in the near future, can actually harm those who will need it in the near future. And while price "gouging" should be discouraged, price increases on the free market are actually one of the most effective ways that we can ensure those who really need something are the ones to be allocated the limited supply (despite their concomitant grumbling).

* For now, this still looks like it will be largely regional to mainland China. Yes, there are cases worldwide, but every healthcare system in the world is now on high-alert for the virus (thanks to the WHO declarations and general social media commotion) and epidemiologists in small localities in the US are jumping on suspected cases right away. A few dozen people infected in the US, who have at most 2nd order contact with China, does not make a national epidemic. For first-world countries with robust healthcare systems and resources, this is likely to be well-contained. Of course "well-contained" doesn't exclude tragedy, but we should expect it to be limited. My main concern is for some of the countries which have much fewer resources and less capable healthcare systems, and how it could explode there as well, if given a foothold.

2019-nCoV appears to be on the same order of contagiousness as influenza, and about an order of magnitude more fatal, mostly because of its novelty (no innate immunity in humans). That is scary, given the ubiquity of the flu (and the relative "meh" from the public, while it silently kills tens of thousands every year), but we aren't living in another 1918 (yet). While China appears to have been "behind the ball" on containing the initial outbreak, consider how "ahead of the curve" we are compared to the 1918 Spanish Influenza outbreak: in case count and locality, medical prowess**, relative freedom of information (compared to 1918, esp. social media), and with a perhaps intrinsically less-pathogenic organism.

** One thing which still amazes me is that vaccine candidates can be produced in a matter of days now. Trials will still take weeks to months to complete (to verify immunologic response and side-effects), and scaling to mass-production months again after that, but the possibility of having a vaccine for a novel pathogen available at a wide scale within a year is amazing. Another is the rapidity with which good testing for this specific virus has also been developed.

This is already a genuine disaster, and will continue to get worse for some time to come, but I am optimistic that the world is mobilized to try to retard it as much as possible. For those of us fortunate enough to not be in China, or not having close proximity to those who may be infected, we should be wary but not overly concerned of becoming infected ourselves, so far. The economic effects are more likely to touch all of us than the virus itself. There are still probably a few dozen things you do every day that should be higher up on your "risk list" than 2019-nCoV. This is, of course, subject to change, and the news does change rapidly, so keep an eye out...

My feelings go out to everyone impacted thus far (especially those in China - though I don't know if any of them ever reach our site). Stay safe everyone!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by darmstrong » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:47 am

JayceSlayn wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:25 am
There is really no way to prevent people from panic buying PPE because of a vanishing* chance of coming in contact with the 2019-nCoV, but we should try to keep everything in perspective. I know this is not really the forum to discourage people from preparing for a disaster, but perhaps I will shift the suggestion slightly to: "we should buy our medical/infection PPE long before the panic buying begins".

The shutdown in China has already really cramped supply chains globally, for many varieties of products, but one which has already started to feel the effects is PPE. China has, of course, greatly increased their internal consumption of PPE, and a lot of it is made there, so hospitals in my area have already been notified to expect shortages of PPE. Hoarding of PPE by people who are very unlikely to use it in the near future, can actually harm those who will need it in the near future. And while price "gouging" should be discouraged, price increases on the free market are actually one of the most effective ways that we can ensure those who really need something are the ones to be allocated the limited supply (despite their concomitant grumbling).
I owned a full box of surgical style masks and a handfull of N95 masks. Locally, we still have quite a few N95s at the hardware store, but stocking levels are much lighter than normal. I'm reminded that once this is over I'm going to purchase some more PPE. It just another reminder to prepped when times are good.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by JayceSlayn » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:03 am

darmstrong wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:47 am
JayceSlayn wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:25 am
There is really no way to prevent people from panic buying PPE because of a vanishing* chance of coming in contact with the 2019-nCoV, but we should try to keep everything in perspective. I know this is not really the forum to discourage people from preparing for a disaster, but perhaps I will shift the suggestion slightly to: "we should buy our medical/infection PPE long before the panic buying begins".

The shutdown in China has already really cramped supply chains globally, for many varieties of products, but one which has already started to feel the effects is PPE. China has, of course, greatly increased their internal consumption of PPE, and a lot of it is made there, so hospitals in my area have already been notified to expect shortages of PPE. Hoarding of PPE by people who are very unlikely to use it in the near future, can actually harm those who will need it in the near future. And while price "gouging" should be discouraged, price increases on the free market are actually one of the most effective ways that we can ensure those who really need something are the ones to be allocated the limited supply (despite their concomitant grumbling).
I owned a full box of surgical style masks and a handfull of N95 masks. Locally, we still have quite a few N95s at the hardware store, but stocking levels are much lighter than normal. I'm reminded that once this is over I'm going to purchase some more PPE. It just another reminder to prepped when times are good.
I keep a box of N95's for woodworking (and prepping, but the former is my excuse), and a half-face respirator (3M 60923 cartridges) for painting/varnishing (same deal). :) We also have a couple of boxes of nitrile gloves in our medical supplies (and for painting still - I love multipurpose products). I'm not out to buy more of any of these right now, but if it comes to the point that the hospital where my wife works is running short on any of these for whatever reason, she'll be taking some to work with her.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by the_alias » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:36 am

Maybe this is a bit taboo but:
According to Chinese scientists, the Corona Virus attaches onto lung receptors that are five times more likely in Asian males:
https://twitter.com/Perpetualmaniac/sta ... 1797926912

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 985v1.full
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:38 am

My feelings go out to everyone impacted thus far (especially those in China - though I don't know if any of them ever reach our site). Stay safe everyone!

I'm not much of a fan of the Government of China. But If they have been successful in containing this virus. The world owes a debt of gratitude to China. This is akin to jumping on the grenade
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:02 pm

the_alias wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:36 am
Maybe this is a bit taboo but:
According to Chinese scientists, the Corona Virus attaches onto lung receptors that are five times more likely in Asian males:
https://twitter.com/Perpetualmaniac/sta ... 1797926912

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 985v1.full
That should not be taboo. Different genetics profiles frequently have different resistance to many diseases and illnesses. The only real question should be is it an accurate statement.

In the case of the 1919 Spanish flu (btw it did not originate in Spain but that is a long story) the influenza actually killed more otherwise young & healthy people than the older and sickly people for a kind of similar reason.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Aeacus » Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:33 pm

raptor wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:02 pm
the_alias wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:36 am
Maybe this is a bit taboo but:
According to Chinese scientists, the Corona Virus attaches onto lung receptors that are five times more likely in Asian males:
https://twitter.com/Perpetualmaniac/sta ... 1797926912

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 985v1.full
That should not be taboo. Different genetics profiles frequently have different resistance to many diseases and illnesses. The only real question should be is it an accurate statement.

In the case of the 1919 Spanish flu (btw it did not originate in Spain but that is a long story) the influenza actually killed more otherwise young & healthy people than the older and sickly people for a kind of similar reason.
I'm very skeptical of this, we're all way more similar on the insides than most think. Pre-peer review studies are tough to judge as the rush to publish can provoke all kinds of errors especially in your population controls.

I'd bet on environmental factors well before racial. Pollution and smoking being the top suspects since this is a respiratory illness. The fact that ~50% of Chinese men smoke and that the rate is low single digits for women could have an effect on the outcomes of the severely ill. I think I watched a recent video of the British doctor breaking down a Lancet medical study that had estimated your likely hood of having a severe case and from their data smoking and age were the key factors. Don't have time to find it now. But really we're working with such limited number of cases and info now that almost all of this is small sample size shots in the dark.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:48 pm

Death Toll From Coronavirus in Mainland China Reaches 636, Over 31,100 Infected - Authorities

https://sputniknews.com/asia/2020020610 ... -infected/

Wuhan Ordered To Round Up Infected Residents For Mass Quarantine Camps

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... e-lockdonw

$9 Cabbages, Emergency Pork: Coronavirus Tests China on Food

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/busi ... rices.html

The Dystopian Horror Of Life Under Quarantine In China

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/dystop ... tine-china

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:27 am




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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:34 pm

This folks is why we prepare by having ahead of time a reasonable inventory of items likely to be needed in a foreseeable emergency.


http://news.trust.org/item/20200207115327-0muw0

GENEVA, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The world is facing a chronic shortage of gowns, masks, gloves and other protective equipment in the fight against a spreading coronavirus epidemic, World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday.

The U.N. agency has been sending testing kits, masks, gloves, respirators and gowns to every region, Tedros told the WHO Executive Board in Geneva.

"However the world is facing a chronic shortage of personnel protective equipment, as you might imagine.

"This afternoon I will be speaking to the pandemic supply chain network to identify the bottlenecks and find solutions and push (for) fairness in distribution of equipment," he said.
For the record I have not seen a shortage of PPE locally. I actually saw some cheap masks (made in the PRC :clownshoes:) at a Dollar store the other day @ 5 for a $1.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:01 pm

flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:18 pm

We know why the flu pandemic of 1918 was called the Spanish flu. If the larger numbers in China are correct , Then we haven't learned from the mistake of 1918.
Why? From the CDC:

March 1918
Outbreaks of flu-like illness are first detected in the United States.
More than 100 soldiers at Camp Funston in Fort Riley, Kansas become ill with flu. Within a week the number of flu cases quintuples.

April 1918
First mention of influenza appears in an April 5 weekly public health report. The report informs officials of 18 severe cases and three deaths in Haskell, Kansas.

May 1918
By May, hundreds of thousands of soldiers travel across the Atlantic each month as they are deployed for World War I.

September 1918
The second wave of flu emerges at Camp Devens, a United States Army training camp just outside of Boston, and at a naval facility in Boston.

Bottom line the 1918 H1N1 pandemic started in Kansas, crossed to Europe on US troop ships then circled back as soldiers demobilized.

This book gives an excellent account of the path of the virus as well as an eye-opening history of how behind U.S. medicine was compared to Europe.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:13 pm

flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:21 pm
It crossed my mind that if the crematoriums were running 24/7 as has been alluded, due to the large amount of people killed by this virus. Wouldn't our spy satellites have picked up these heat blooms? And if so , then our government is complicit with China over the severity of the problem.
OPIR - Overhead Persistent Infrared can see a variety of IR activity but a crematorium, even running 24/7, would not have the plume anywhere near as large or hot as a smelter or foundry. Unless they are directing assets to look at exactly where the crematoriums are located (I doubt that information is in any strategic database) there is no way to tell.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by chills1994 » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:58 pm

Obviously technology has advanced since 1990/1991's Desert Storm/Persian Gulf War/Gulf War I , but back then US spy satellites were set to detect the infrared plume or signature of a ballistic missile being fired.

The satellites would detect a Scud missile being launched and send an alarm to NORAD. Then NORAD (in Colorado) would contact the Patriot missile batteries in the Gulf. Then the Patriot missile batteries would try to shoot down the incoming Scudd missiles.

Soooo....with that said, it would be a fairly safe assumption that the US has the same kind of spy satellites over China to detect the IR signatures of ICBM's getting launched.

Whether that same IR capability can be used to detect crematorium "throughput".... I have no idea.

One would need the foresight say like a year or 5 years ago to brainstorm "What if the S hit the fan in China, how would they handle the bodies? Let's keep an eye on crematorium smoke stack IR signatures! " Then the data would have to be stored/archived. Then somebody would have to go back say like 6 months ago to get a baseline to say that Crematoriums Alpha, Bravo, and Charlie only operated during daylight hours Monday through Friday. Then compare it to this week's data...are they running 24/7 now?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by chills1994 » Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:59 pm

Latest US Coronavirus task force press conference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKcUSGk ... e=youtu.be
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:11 pm


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:18 pm

Panicked Hong Kongers Hoard Food, Water, Supplies Amid Coronavirus Hysteria

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... quarantine

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:20 pm

Evan the Diplomat wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:01 pm
flybynight wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:18 pm

We know why the flu pandemic of 1918 was called the Spanish flu. If the larger numbers in China are correct , Then we haven't learned from the mistake of 1918.
Why? From the CDC:

March 1918
Outbreaks of flu-like illness are first detected in the United States.
More than 100 soldiers at Camp Funston in Fort Riley, Kansas become ill with flu. Within a week the number of flu cases quintuples.

April 1918
First mention of influenza appears in an April 5 weekly public health report. The report informs officials of 18 severe cases and three deaths in Haskell, Kansas.

May 1918
By May, hundreds of thousands of soldiers travel across the Atlantic each month as they are deployed for World War I.

September 1918
The second wave of flu emerges at Camp Devens, a United States Army training camp just outside of Boston, and at a naval facility in Boston.

Bottom line the 1918 H1N1 pandemic started in Kansas, crossed to Europe on US troop ships then circled back as soldiers demobilized.

This book gives an excellent account of the path of the virus as well as an eye-opening history of how behind U.S. medicine was compared to Europe.

Image
I always had heard that too
Image

But I guess there is a lot of dissension among researchers and historians

The major troop staging and hospital camp in Étaples, France, was identified by researchers as being at the center of the Spanish flu. The research was published in 1999 by a British team, led by virologist John Oxford.[20] In late 1917, military pathologists reported the onset of a new disease with high mortality that they later recognized as the flu. The overcrowded camp and hospital was an ideal site for the spreading of a respiratory virus. The hospital treated thousands of victims of chemical attacks, and other casualties of war. 100,000 soldiers were in transit through the camp every day. It also was home to a live piggery, and poultry was regularly brought in for food supplies from surrounding villages. Oxford and his team postulated that a significant precursor virus, harbored in birds, mutated and then migrated to pigs kept near the front.[21][22]
There have been claims that the epidemic originated in the United States. Historian Alfred W. Crosby claimed that the flu originated in Kansas,[23] and popular author John Barry described Haskell County, Kansas, as the point of origin.[15] It has also been claimed that, by late 1917, there had already been a first wave of the epidemic in at least 14 US military camps.[24]
Earlier hypotheses put forward varying points of origin for the epidemic. Some hypothesized that the flu originated in East Asia, a common area for transmission of disease from animals to humans because of dense living conditions.[25] In 1993, Claude Hannoun, the leading expert on the 1918 flu for the Pasteur Institute, asserted the former virus was likely to have come from China. It then mutated in the United States near Boston and from there spread to Brest, France, Europe's battlefields, Europe, and the world with Allied soldiers and sailors as the main disseminators.[26] He considered several other hypotheses of origin, such as Spain, Kansas and Brest, as being possible, but not likely.
Political scientist Andrew Price-Smith published data from the Austrian archives suggesting the influenza had earlier origins, beginning in Austria in early 1917.[27]
In 2014, historian Mark Humphries argued that the mobilization of 96,000 Chinese laborers to work behind the British and French lines might have been the source of the pandemic. Humphries, of the Memorial University of Newfoundland in St. John's, based his conclusions on newly unearthed records. He found archival evidence that a respiratory illness that struck northern China in November 1917 was identified a year later by Chinese health officials as identical to the Spanish flu.[28][29] A report published in 2016 in the Journal of the Chinese Medical Association found no evidence that the 1918 virus was imported to Europe via Chinese and Southeast Asian soldiers and workers. It found evidence that the virus had been circulating in the European armies for months and possibly years before the 1918 pandemic.[30]
Spread

What isn't argued is the name

To maintain morale, wartime censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States.[10][11] Papers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain (such as the grave illness of King Alfonso XIII).[12] These stories created a false impression of Spain as especially hard hit,[13] thereby giving rise to the pandemic's nickname, "Spanish flu"

Which is the point of my observation about not learning anything since 1918
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by flybynight » Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:42 pm

chills1994 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:58 pm
Obviously technology has advanced since 1990/1991's Desert Storm/Persian Gulf War/Gulf War I , but back then US spy satellites were set to detect the infrared plume or signature of a ballistic missile being fired.

The satellites would detect a Scud missile being launched and send an alarm to NORAD. Then NORAD (in Colorado) would contact the Patriot missile batteries in the Gulf. Then the Patriot missile batteries would try to shoot down the incoming Scudd missiles.

Soooo....with that said, it would be a fairly safe assumption that the US has the same kind of spy satellites over China to detect the IR signatures of ICBM's getting launched.

Whether that same IR capability can be used to detect crematorium "throughput".... I have no idea.

One would need the foresight say like a year or 5 years ago to brainstorm "What if the S hit the fan in China, how would they handle the bodies? Let's keep an eye on crematorium smoke stack IR signatures! " Then the data would have to be stored/archived. Then somebody would have to go back say like 6 months ago to get a baseline to say that Crematoriums Alpha, Bravo, and Charlie only operated during daylight hours Monday through Friday. Then compare it to this week's data...are they running 24/7 now?
If industry is shut down as news reports are saying . A four thousand degree heat bloom would stand out like a sore thumb. I just figured this would be something CIA would be all over. Heck NWS was able to record all the fireworks being launched over Mo/ KS last Sunday night on their radar.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:05 pm

flybynight wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:20 pm


What isn't argued is the name

To maintain morale, wartime censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States.[10][11] Papers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain (such as the grave illness of King Alfonso XIII).[12] These stories created a false impression of Spain as especially hard hit,[13] thereby giving rise to the pandemic's nickname, "Spanish flu"

Which is the point of my observation about not learning anything since 1918
thanks for clearing that up, and I have to agree that Spanish Flu sounds much snazzier than Haskell Flu.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by Evan the Diplomat » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:14 pm

flybynight wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:42 pm
chills1994 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:58 pm
Obviously technology has advanced since 1990/1991's Desert Storm/Persian Gulf War/Gulf War I , but back then US spy satellites were set to detect the infrared plume or signature of a ballistic missile being fired.

The satellites would detect a Scud missile being launched and send an alarm to NORAD. Then NORAD (in Colorado) would contact the Patriot missile batteries in the Gulf. Then the Patriot missile batteries would try to shoot down the incoming Scudd missiles.

Soooo....with that said, it would be a fairly safe assumption that the US has the same kind of spy satellites over China to detect the IR signatures of ICBM's getting launched.

Whether that same IR capability can be used to detect crematorium "throughput".... I have no idea.

One would need the foresight say like a year or 5 years ago to brainstorm "What if the S hit the fan in China, how would they handle the bodies? Let's keep an eye on crematorium smoke stack IR signatures! " Then the data would have to be stored/archived. Then somebody would have to go back say like 6 months ago to get a baseline to say that Crematoriums Alpha, Bravo, and Charlie only operated during daylight hours Monday through Friday. Then compare it to this week's data...are they running 24/7 now?
If industry is shut down as news reports are saying . A four thousand degree heat bloom would stand out like a sore thumb. I just figured this would be something CIA would be all over. Heck NWS was able to record all the fireworks being launched over Mo/ KS last Sunday night on their radar.
You still have to geo-reference each crematorium, meaning the lat-long of each facility, then task the assets off of the known Chinese missile ranges, engine test facilities to point at Wuhan. Much more likely to detect evidence of mass graves with commercial assets like Planet or DigitalGlobe.

OBTW, crematoriums dispose of bodies between 1400 - 1800 degrees Fahrenheit, certainly detectable by OPIR, if they were looking for it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by TacAir » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:25 pm

A very in-depth look at the Spanish flu
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/ ... 180965222/

Interesting read on the progression.

My Grandfather survived his ship getting torpedoed by the Kriegsmarine, the general crap of WWI, the Spanish flu both in Europe and the US. Yet died when over 75 Y/O and in spite of smoking a pack a day of Pall Mall unfiltered - the extra long ones - ya. Genes do matter in many ways....

BTW - CBS is running an aggregator site for ongoing updates
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/co ... 020-02-07/
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by raptor » Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:52 pm

flybynight wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:42 pm
If industry is shut down as news reports are saying . A four thousand degree heat bloom would stand out like a sore thumb. I just figured this would be something CIA would be all over. Heck NWS was able to record all the fireworks being launched over Mo/ KS last Sunday night on their radar.
A crematorium typically operates less the 1800F and is actually similar in temperature to coal fired power power plants, albeit much, much smaller. They should be easy to see with IR but there are other industries still operating (the aforementioned coal power plants for instance) will make it difficult to ascertain without some on the ground knowledge of the area. A crematorium is generally not a very big building. At least not in the US not a clue about the PRC.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by absinthe beginner » Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:03 pm

Death toll tops 700, with more than 2,841 new infections taking the total past 34,000 across the country.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/ ... 58175.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Thread

Post by MPMalloy » Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:16 pm


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