Accepting Reality

[moab]

I think MCCRES has kind of fallen by the wayside for obvious reasons over the last 14-years but if we become a peacetime service again, I'm sure it will be back in fashion.

.

Wow. That's so interesting. I would have thought they'd of held onto that. As a basic core element of warfare i.e. - moving troops. I wouldn't have thought the skill of "hiking" would ever be taken out of military training.

But there were undoubtedly guys from decades prior that probably thought our training was lacking too. lol. Times move on I guess.

[Stercutus]

Wow. That's so interesting. I would have thought they'd of held onto that. As a basic core element of warfare i.e. - moving troops. I wouldn't have thought the skill of "hiking" would ever be taken out of military training.

But there were undoubtedly guys from decades prior that probably thought our training was lacking too. lol. Times move on I guess.

I can tell you that foot marching across the desert in Iraq was kept to a minimum, normally some commanders lost boyhood dream.

Dismounted operations so far as city clearing were all on foot obviously but most missions were under 10km a day. No pack but but at least 60 lbs of armor and gear for most. I imagine most people walked 3-4X that in actual walking. NCO's and other leaders easily walked 50kms a day total during a long city clearing mission.

[ROCK6]

Just checked with a couple of my old MC buddies. And I have to make the following corrections:

I stand corrected. The MCCRES Marine Corps Combat Rediness Evaluation Survey - it was 25 miles in 8 Hours. You can only have a 10% drop out rate. Checking on the PT test too.

It's been 30 years. You'll have to forgive.

It's hard to tell as in the Army, units would have their own variations for certification...still 25 miles is a hump even in 8 hours. I was always pretty envious of the Marine Corps...their standards were better applied across the whole spectrum of Marine specialties. The Army has always been unit-focused...high speed units had higher standards where you more upper-echelon support units didn't. Our physical fitness standards are the same, but not some of the more "combat" related tasks.

I'm coming up on 28 years; my first five were enlisted Infantry and I've spent time in special ops units, combat arms and some corps and above units. Physical fitness continues to evolve, but I it's sad to see that the standards are actually easier for initial entry, they get harder as they hit mid career and then (at my age), they start to drop off again. I tore more shoulder this past spring and I'm still in recovery, but I have always max'd my pushups and situps, but my run has slowed with my age...pretty sad when I get to show up the younger guys that are 20-25 years my junior

Time to get over this shoulder injury (first major injury in my career) and get my butt back in shape. We are planning some backpacking over Thanksgiving and my wife and I have a 100 mile section of the AT planned in June...

ROCK6

[ROCK6]

No pack but but at least 60 lbs of armor and gear for most. I imagine most people walked 3-4X that in actual walking. NCO's and other leaders easily walked 50kms a day total during a long city clearing mission.

Going back to "bugging out", for those that have the cool, latest combat armor and kits, this is another aspect that is overlooked. Most of my travel in Iraq and Afghanistan was via helo, up-armored HMMWVs or armored gun trucks. My last tour in Kabul involved a lot of gun-truck travel but we did some hiking at our remote sites. At the elevation it was a serious ass kicker. My basic load with armor and water (no pack) was right at 45 pounds; that's just the fighting load and I always had my MR 3DAP pack for the shorter 2-3 day trips and short term sustainment. There is a massive difference from my combat load to a 10-day trail load-out. I was quite grateful for my gun-truck team!





ROCK6

[moab]

Just checked with a couple of my old MC buddies. And I have to make the following corrections:

I stand corrected. The MCCRES Marine Corps Combat Rediness Evaluation Survey - it was 25 miles in 8 Hours. You can only have a 10% drop out rate. Checking on the PT test too.

It's been 30 years. You'll have to forgive.

It's hard to tell as in the Army, units would have their own variations for certification...still 25 miles is a hump even in 8 hours. I was always pretty envious of the Marine Corps...their standards were better applied across the whole spectrum of Marine specialties. The Army has always been unit-focused...high speed units had higher standards where you more upper-echelon support units didn't. Our physical fitness standards are the same, but not some of the more "combat" related tasks.

I'm coming up on 28 years; my first five were enlisted Infantry and I've spent time in special ops units, combat arms and some corps and above units. Physical fitness continues to evolve, but I it's sad to see that the standards are actually easier for initial entry, they get harder as they hit mid career and then (at my age), they start to drop off again. I tore more shoulder this past spring and I'm still in recovery, but I have always max'd my pushups and situps, but my run has slowed with my age...pretty sad when I get to show up the younger guys that are 20-25 years my junior

Time to get over this shoulder injury (first major injury in my career) and get my butt back in shape. We are planning some backpacking over Thanksgiving and my wife and I have a 100 mile section of the AT planned in June...

ROCK6

There was still a difference between the infantry divisions and the air wing though in the MC. I don't think they had PT like we did. At least it didn't appear so whenever we worked with them. I worked with a crew chief and the pilots on a Huey. That convinced me to look into the air wing. a lot more respect between officers and enlisted. And just straight up more humane environment. I had the chance but was to nervous that the Corps would mess it up somehow. Seems like they had a knack for that. lol. So I passed. But our unit always did a little bit more than the typcial line company. And of course recon did even more still. So it was still unit dependant. But your right - you still had the overall MC standards every unit had to pass. From drivers, to legal to line company guys.

Ya. Injuries suck. I've had three artificial disc replacements in my lumbar and neck. It's tough to come back from. Way more recovery time than they say. And my guts still aren't the same. I've been able to lift for some time - supported i.e. - bench press, preacher curls etc. But just started cardio the last year or so. Still driving off the weight I gained during recovery.

According to my friends buddy who was a Captain in the MC. And got out in 2013. About as far as they hikes on an organized hike was 15 miles. No report on how fast.

[Asymetryczna]

I think the main thing in this topic was staying home rather than leaving it in order to seek better shelter.

Then, somehow, it went down two completely different paths. Hiking is a far different thing than a forced march. I've hiked, and I have marched in the legions.
And I maintain a fierce loyalty to them.
If they volunteered, I have fierce respect. They are just as crazy as I am.

Seven—six—eleven—five—nine-an’-twenty mile to-day—
Four—eleven—seventeen—thirty-two the day before—
(Boots—boots—boots—boots—movin’ up and down again!)
There’s no discharge in the war!
~Kipling

Hansen. Meh...rich kids.



So, no matter how many guns you own or how much military gear you buy to wear or how many times you have hiked this named trail or another if you make the mistake of making believe it is "infantry-like" I am going to laugh at you. We are a small percentage of this small percentage:




So, the original topic was about switching from going somewhere to staying sheltered. Accept reality...

[Boondock]

I think the main thing in this topic was staying home rather than leaving it in order to seek better shelter.

Yup. We did kind of start chasing rabbits, there. Sometimes, that's OK. Big takeaway from this thread is to have some flexibility in your contingencies. Primary and secondary plans allow you adapt to a changing situation.

Many people chose to bug in. But if that option gets taken off the table, it's also nice to have an idea of what's next.

[MPMalloy]

Many people chose to bug in. But if that option gets taken off the table, it's also nice to have an idea of what's next.[/quote]

Exactamundo...

[Asymetryczna]

GOOD MORNING.
Vimes blinked. A tall dark robed figure was now sitting in the boat.
'Are you Death?'
IT'S THE SCYTHE, ISN'T IT? PEOPLE ALWAYS NOTICE THE SCYTHE.
'I'm going to die?'
POSSIBLY.
'Possibly? You turn up when people are possibly going to die?'
OH, YES. IT'S QUITE THE NEW THING. IT'S BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE.
'What's that?'
I'M NOT SURE.
'That's very helpful.”

― Terry Pratchett, The Fifth Elephant

[LowKey]

<snip>You know what it takes to get a unit together and moving. How do it. And how not to do it. And most importantly that it can be done. Maybe not as fast as when you were 17. But it can be done. Or at least the chances are good enough to give it one hell of a shot. You've got to try. If your BIL, BOL and every other plan has failed. You have to have a plan to move on. Or die there. I just don't see myself as someone to just sit and die there. It's just not in me. I may get myself killed trying to do it in the wrong circumstances. But at least you planned for it and tried. Instead of saying "Oh. That's bullshit. Nobody can do that for blah blah blah reason. So why even try?!".

I get kind of sick of hearing that. Just because you have a BIL and a BOL doesn't mean both of those can't be run over by whatever is destroying the world. Whether it be nuclear accidents, earthquakes, fires, floods, disease, global warming - just to name a few. Why is it anymore unrealistic to plan for that. Than to plan for something that takes you just to your BOL? If things are so bad you've had to move to a BOL. Chances are others are going to want that BOL too. And maybe you have the perfect fortress. But retreat is always a good option to have. Whether it be a fast one or a slow and steady one. At least have a plan to get out of dodge no matter where you end up. And even then have a plan to scout out new BOL's. And be ready to move on a moments notice.

But again, maybe it's the old Marine in me. I just don't see BIL's or BOL's lasting forever in some kind of Utopian society. Things change. Diseases, fires, nuclear fall out, people that want what you've got and have the means and desire to take it - they all move. I mean hopefully your BOL works just fine. And as things calm down you can come down out of your cave and re-enter some semblance of society. I'd like to hope that's what happens. But what is planning for? The worst case scenario right? So just have a plan. Implement it. Train for it. And know that it's going to change the moment it starts. If I learned anything in the military it's that old adage about how the plan is the first thing to go sideways. So you better have lots of options.

This is is truth, although I wouldn't limit to just former infantrymen. You grunts may reign supreme when it come to covering the most ground on foot in a day, but most ex-combat arms prior service types would still be able to grind out a fairly good distance and would share the ingrained mental conditioning to keep grinding out the miles for a prolonged period of time if the need was there. If going slow then they'd be fine. After all, the Army chose a packmule as a mascot for a reason IMHO the physical conditioning is the key factor in distance covered in a day, mental conditioning is the key factor in how many days that person will keep putting one foot in front of the other and not give up as long as they don't suffer a crippling injury (and in some cases with one!).

INCH bags are to lifeboats what BOBs are to life vests.

[grumpyviking]

A WWII soldier would often walk 40+ miles a day with pack and weapon. No reason to think a person in great shape could not do the same if they were willing or made to. That is four miles an hour for ten hours.

most people, if they even think about bugging out, will not be soldiers, most will be family groups who will be travelling at the pace of the SLOWEST person-that could be granddad or it could be young grandson.
general wisdom here is: young fit person, not carrying too much, can walk at 4MPH, older person, reasonably fit probably about 3MPH, both of these on a level flat surface, on an uneven uphill surface we'd be down to about 2MPH and in the dark, in inclement weather, in winter about 1MPH.
4MPH for 10 hours a day? nope, only Rambo does that, the average person will do about 12 miles per day, possibly 20miles on a good day.
actually nobody in this country will bug out unless their house is flooded, burnt to the ground or is in some other way unsafe to live in, then they will go and stay with other relatives.
bugging out without anywhere specific to go, just aimlessly wandering about just HOPING to find somewhere safe with food and water is not bugging out, it being a refugee.

[the_alias]

Regarding some of the stuff about how far people can/can't march.

I've never been in the army or military so I can't speak of that, I'm just a regular guy.

When I did the Welsh3000s it was ~30 miles of mountainous terrain with and awful lot of ascent and descent (some estimates range around 14000 ascent and about 14,000 descent) I carried a daypack that probably weighed in at around ~10kg so what 22lbs? That was hard and the clock was running for 21 hours total (including breaks).

In preparation for that I probably never walked more than 8 miles in one go and far more likely was it was closer to 3-5 miles. I was going to give myself a month to train/prep for it but that ended up to being 2 weeks due to illness.

With a load approaching 20kg (44lbs) in Tasmania the longest day I did on the trail was only 12 miles I think. That day had quite a bit of ascent but couldn't put a number on it. Left the trailbook in Australia

I reckon people can walk further than they think, a lot further, humans are well designed for walking long distances. It's a matter of mind over matter. BUT adding heavy packs does have a big impact that takes time to adjust to, there is a lot of value in being ultralight.

In his great book Natural Born Heroes McDougall talks about JFK's 50 miler challenge that came from Teddy Roosevelt's order that US marines had to be able to do 50 miles in under 72 hours.

Bobby Kennedy did it in 18 hours and then the public got involved, it sparked a surge of interest and

Speed records tumbled: Bobby Kennedy was beaten by a high school girl in California, who was edged out by a 58 year old postman in New Jersey, who was bested by a Marine who smoked it home in under 10 hours

McDougall says the challenges died out after Kennedy was killed but there is still one today called the JFK 50.

[ZombieGranny]

Apparently the fact that we are not military and have a 5 year old and an old man is snarky.
whatever, as the kids say
REMOVED
going back to chat thread now
carry on

[Boondock]

I will add this: I'm getting close to middle age. And many on this forum also know I walk with a cane because my legs and feet are filled with shrapnel. I eat painkillers like some people eat mints. The pain is annoying.

Since I can't run, I try to do a lot of walking. My doctors approve. I also like getting outdoors, it's good for my PTSD. To backpack and hike, I've had to do a lot of training and put a lot of thought into what I pack in my kit.

When ZS:20 does its annual backpacking MBO, so far, I always finish. My point is to try not to let physical limitations prevent you from prepping or keep you from doing the things you love to do. But it's hard, I know.

[Doctorr Fabulous]

Friction is the force that resists all action and saps energy. It makes the simple difficult and the difficult seemingly impossible.

Friction is the reason why highly trained units can go in and knock out difficult training ranges with speed and finesse, and yet move far more slowly and with less effectiveness when deployed. Batteries new in the package go dead, maybe a food packet spoils, your route gets rained to hell and the trail is suddenly a muck ruck from hell. Whatever it is, the lesson of friction is that you should never expect peak performance under stress, especially under duress. On the one hand, I know I've been on 20km pursuits on foot interspersed with firefights that took maybe ten hours total. OTOH, I've also been on 5km hikes that took six hours because of equipment and personnel failures and issues with the trails. All that was without having anyone who was sick, injured, infirm, elderly, young, or generally anything outside the ideal, and with equipment that was solid, if not what I wanted.

So yeah, alone I could bike from here to Chicago in two days pretty comfortably in good weather by myself or with someone else similarly equipped and in similar or better shape. OTOH, if it was me and a group of random ZSers from the local chapter trying to cycle there, I'd expect a week or more for things like rest, injury, mechanical failures, and weather. Similarly while some of our trail runners/hikers may be able to cover a marathon in a day even over rough trails, that's far less likely to happen in a disaster evacuation with little notice, and of decreasing likelihood as more people are involved.

"March or die" is all well and good if you view everyone around you as expendable. Personally, I prefer "no man gets left behind" in the gender nonspecific sense. I'd rather some variation of that be the motto, as I've been the one who couldn't march on occasion.

[LowKey]

Friction is the force that resists all action and saps energy. It makes the simple difficult and the difficult seemingly impossible.

Friction is the reason why highly trained units can go in and knock out difficult training ranges with speed and finesse, and yet move far more slowly and with less effectiveness when deployed. Batteries new in the package go dead, maybe a food packet spoils, your route gets rained to hell and the trail is suddenly a muck ruck from hell. Whatever it is, the lesson of friction is that you should never expect peak performance under stress, especially under duress. On the one hand, I know I've been on 20km pursuits on foot interspersed with firefights that took maybe ten hours total. OTOH, I've also been on 5km hikes that took six hours because of equipment and personnel failures and issues with the trails. All that was without having anyone who was sick, injured, infirm, elderly, young, or generally anything outside the ideal, and with equipment that was solid, if not what I wanted.

So yeah, alone I could bike from here to Chicago in two days pretty comfortably in good weather by myself or with someone else similarly equipped and in similar or better shape. OTOH, if it was me and a group of random ZSers from the local chapter trying to cycle there, I'd expect a week or more for things like rest, injury, mechanical failures, and weather. Similarly while some of our trail runners/hikers may be able to cover a marathon in a day even over rough trails, that's far less likely to happen in a disaster evacuation with little notice, and of decreasing likelihood as more people are involved.

"March or die" is all well and good if you view everyone around you as expendable. Personally, I prefer "no man gets left behind" in the gender nonspecific sense. I'd rather some variation of that be the motto, as I've been the one who couldn't march on occasion.

Well said.

Both ends of the performance spectrum are possible, depending on conditioning, circumstances, and luck.
Train to maximize the possibility of exploiting the higher end of that performance envelope, but plan on the lower and more pessimistic end should it truly hit the fan.

[Asymetryczna]

"March or die" is all well and good if you view everyone around you as expendable.

That's probably the smartest thing I have seen written anywhere this week.

[Stercutus]

Purdy pretty much considered everyone expendable.

[grumpyviking]

Purdy pretty much considered everyone expendable.

I agree, I expect the "die off" of the people to be huge, I also expect the suicide rate to rocket.

[Evan the Diplomat]

We are a small percentage of this small percentage:


...

We are the two percent!

[dunamis]

Well yes and no. A WWII soldier would often walk 40+ miles a day with pack and weapon. No reason to think a person in great shape could not do the same if they were willing or made to. That is four miles an hour for ten hours.

So "most people" could do that if they were in shape. The fact they are not in shape is a separate issue.

I just don't buy this. This is really the exception to reality...even the young airborne troopers in excellent shape would be hard pressed to do 40 miles in a day with a full combat load; and with that, very few would be in fighting shape when they reached their destination. You also have to calculate in water breaks, sock-changes, calorie-intake breaks and often times, personal maintenance. I would say less than 10% of our current forces could sustain a 15-minute mile for 10 hours...if you've done the standard 12-mile march, you know how difficult that would be to repeat that a couple more times consecutively.

I've done my numerous shares of the road march standard and my wife and I have done a few 100+mile backpacking hikes. There is a significant different between "road" marches, AT-like trails and off-trail. Load weight plays a significant impact and most bug out bags weighing in around 50-60 pounds are unrealistic for the majority who expect to hump it. There's only one way to train with pack weight and that is strapping it on and humping 10-15 miles every other week. Even if I'm physically fit and do those quarterly 12-mile road marches, that doesn't translate to doing 40 miles very well.

Now where I do agree is that the average person in shape should be able to knock out 20-30 miles in a day with a light load, but they would most likely be laid up for a week after that; they better be bugging to home or their destination. There are lot of fantasies about bugging out with a pack and covering a hundred miles. Reality is the biggest enemy most will ever face and if you don't regularly backpack, hike, run, workout, etc. don't delude yourself too much.

All that said, bugging out, bugging home, humping your INCH into the wilderness all have their place, but priorities, substantial planning and contingencies need serious attention. Anywhere between your current home and your bug out location if different or if you're bugging home...that distance is when you are the most vulnerable and carry the placard of refugee. For those not in the best of physical shape, with serious medical issues or infants...this is why you plan to bug in and if that location is compromised, you have a couple different contingencies focused on different modes of transportation to get you to your back up location. Don't discount the physically "infirm" or elderly; chances are these are often the most valuable resources of information and knowledge and I'm not just talking about your immediate family.

ROCK6

Totally agree with this. Green Beret candidates are given 12 hours to carry a 60 lb. ruck for 20 miles during hell week, and not many of them look like they would want to do it again the next day afterward. While some may be able to knock down a 40 mile day with a 60 lb. load, it would take what could probably be considered a superhuman feat of strength to do it consistently on a daily basis. Highly unrealistic.

[dunamis]

To qualify for SF in the army (at least as far back as a few years ago) includes moving 8 miles with a 60 lb. bag in 2 hours. This test comes at an undeclared moment and so must be performed regardless of previous stress on your body from the other tests performed to qualify. My understanding is most guys who make it don't best the clock by much.

Being preexhausted is generally a requisite state intentionally caused by the rigors of previous exercises, lack of sleep and inadequate nourishment before being called on to complete one of these SF qualifier marches.

[grumpyviking]

all this talk of what you did in the forces is all well and good and highly commendable, but as I've already stated, most people bugging out will NOT be army, veteran or otherwise, they will be families with all that that entails, maybe with youngsters even babies in some cases, they will not repeat NOT be walking at the pace of an Army trained reservist or serving soldier. all this talk of walking 60-100 miles a day is unattainable.

[MacWa77ace]

I have always been confused by the "on foot" BO.

Too many people think this is the ultimate fantasy:

The Road: this is 10 years after the 'event' which was either a solar or nuclear EMP event. Either would have knocked out most powered transportation. After 10 years, most survivors would be walking. But they are not bugging out. They are essentially nomads at this point, scavenging for food and water.

The Book of Eli had vehicles still working 35-40 years after a nuclear exchange. I always had trouble with that because even if you could find some fuel, the rubber in tires would decay enough to make them extremely unreliable.

Yes. I don't think anyone feels bugging out on foot is a first tier bug out strategy. It's for if your BIL has failed, your BOL has failed, your car has failed, your boat has failed, and you've got no other choice. Or any number of other bad things. Like staying out on the roads is not safe anymore. Or some other such scenario.

Exactly,
If an EMP event caused by a nuclear pulse followed by surface and subsurface bursts near your AO, then an immediate bug out of 60 miles to evacuate the 'hot zone' would be advised. If powered transportation were not available you'd have to hoof it.

But even if vehicles were available, a bug out of that type, life or death, would most certainly gridlock all escape arteries.



Contingency ZZ: Bug out on foot.