.22lr bubble?

General discussions regarding topics that aren't covered in one of the other sub-forums. NO DISCUSSION OF POLITICS!

Moderators: ZS Global Moderators, ZS Postal Match Officers

User avatar
0122358
* * * * *
Posts: 1804
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:07 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Dawn of the Dead (2004)
Zombieland
Location: Purdy...Washington

.22lr bubble?

Post by 0122358 » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:13 pm

So as I was purchasing my S&W 442 today, the gentleman who was completing my 4473 approval/ CPL check was telling me about the upcoming .22 burst...he said he had it from several longtime friends that there is a manufacturing uptick 12 fold and their about the blow the lid on supply. He said it would go back to under 20 bucks a brick of 500...he said there is new manufacturing machines spinning up in addition to the current ones. Something about the Italians getting on board.

It sounds to good to be true...but does anyone else have any whispers? If true I wont hesitate to drop 500 bucks on .22 and pick up 6000 rounds.
SMoAF wrote:Your sin is one of geography, not one of unmanliness. Pimp's sin is that he's, well....himself.
Doctorr Fabulous wrote: I'd rather have 10 spooky-sized aircraft in an AO than 100 drones, because fuck those fucking pred flyboys who can't tell the difference between a shovel and an RPK.

Doctorr Fabulous
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 12210
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:06 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Evil Dead, Zombieland, 28 Days/Weeks Later

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:17 pm

Don't believe secondhand rumor.
Opinions subject to change in light of new information.
Image
http://i.imgur.com/wG6ZMjE.jpg

User avatar
0122358
* * * * *
Posts: 1804
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:07 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Dawn of the Dead (2004)
Zombieland
Location: Purdy...Washington

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by 0122358 » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:19 pm

Doctorr Fabulous wrote:Don't believe secondhand rumor.
I know...I'm not getting my hopes up...but figured it might be worth asking.
SMoAF wrote:Your sin is one of geography, not one of unmanliness. Pimp's sin is that he's, well....himself.
Doctorr Fabulous wrote: I'd rather have 10 spooky-sized aircraft in an AO than 100 drones, because fuck those fucking pred flyboys who can't tell the difference between a shovel and an RPK.

User avatar
woodsghost
* * * * *
Posts: 3103
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 3:45 pm

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by woodsghost » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:28 pm

I don't know if that particular rumor is true, but I have walked by several thousand rounds of .22 in several stores in my area lately. I did not buy any, but at least it was available, and late in the day too! So I expect things are getting better, even if it is still tough.

Your wanting to buy 6k right off the bat is exactly the reason I can see new machines being made and can believe some of that rumor.
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

User avatar
majorhavoc
ZS Donor
ZS Donor
Posts: 7020
Joined: Wed May 12, 2010 10:06 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: 28 Days Later, ZombieLand, Dawn of the Dead
Location: Maine

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by majorhavoc » Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:32 pm

I've long since given up on the notion that there's anything rational about the ammunition market, and have learned to tune out hearsay and rumors. The only thing about them that I've found to be reliably true is that they wreak havoc on natural market forces.

.22lr will become affordable and available again when it becomes affordable and available again.

User avatar
Stercutus
* * * * *
Posts: 13267
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:16 pm
Location: Time Out

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Stercutus » Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:04 pm

Gunshop rumor is gunshop rumor.

It comes and goes here. I have taken to lending out bricks to trusted friends so long as they pay me back with same quality brick when the shortage ends. This allows me to rotate out some of the bulk stuff. I think we are coming near the end soon.
These days of dust
Which we've known
Will blow away with this new Son

But I'll kneel down wait for now
And I'll kneel down
Know my ground

User avatar
BullOnParade
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 3020
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 3:10 pm
Location: Toronto, Ontario

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by BullOnParade » Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:10 pm

I predict sometime in the future, .22 will become a viable round to stock again. Much like in the future petrol based fuels will go back below $2/gallon. That future will be when better technology exists, and you can dial your energy based firearm to suit whatever you're shooting at.
BullOnParade

Burn the land and boil the sea, you can't take the sky from me.

Urban BOB/Range (& Bailout) Bag/EDC/Vehicle Kit

voland
Posts: 19
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:56 am

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by voland » Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:39 pm

If it does, Ill put back another 20k rounds... If not, oh well...

V

KnifeStyle
* * *
Posts: 527
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2010 8:33 pm

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by KnifeStyle » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:07 pm

I work at a big box gun chain. We have no official input into the market, all we know is what shows up on the trucks every day. We get bricks in about once a week, they sell out in half a day. We get a steady supply of fifty-round boxes throughout the week, most of the time they sell out by the end of the day but often we have leftovers. We have more .22 coming off the trucks, it sells heavily but it is not selling out instantly like it used to. Judging by the increase, I'd say it's viable to say they're working extra shifts, but can't speculate on new machines or factories.
jamoni wrote:Zombie Squad, the things you have experience with scare me.

User avatar
raptor
ZS Global Moderator
ZS Global Moderator
Posts: 16622
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:18 pm
Location: Greater New Orleans Area

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by raptor » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:21 pm

I would note for the record that other than at gun shows and a shooting range (reserved for rental gin use only) I have not seen .22 rf of any kind in a retail environment in NOLA since 2012.

I eagerly await the bursting of this bubble.

User avatar
Mr. E. Monkey
* * * * *
Posts: 9106
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:38 am
Location: Utah

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Mr. E. Monkey » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:36 pm

raptor wrote:I would note for the record that other than at gun shows and a shooting range (reserved for rental gin use only) I have not seen .22 rf of any kind in a retail environment in NOLA since 2012.

I eagerly await the bursting of this bubble.
That's pretty close to what I'm seeing here. There will occasionally be a limited amount available at the couple of sporting goods stores locally, but most of what they actually do have seems to be reserved for purchase with a .22lr firearm.
SMoAF wrote:'Tis better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
Beowolf wrote:Disasters are terrifying, but people are stupid.
wee drop o' bush wrote:THE EVIL MONKEY HAS WON THE INTERNETS! :lol: Image
Image

User avatar
Mikeyboy
* * * * *
Posts: 2265
Joined: Wed May 04, 2011 8:00 am

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Mikeyboy » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:14 am

KnifeStyle wrote:I work at a big box gun chain. We have no official input into the market, all we know is what shows up on the trucks every day. We get bricks in about once a week, they sell out in half a day. We get a steady supply of fifty-round boxes throughout the week, most of the time they sell out by the end of the day but often we have leftovers. We have more .22 coming off the trucks, it sells heavily but it is not selling out instantly like it used to. Judging by the increase, I'd say it's viable to say they're working extra shifts, but can't speculate on new machines or factories.

+1

Its all supply and demand, and the demand is still insane. The way you will see the bubble burst is if .22lr prices higher than 9mm, and a everyone moves to an alterative caliber. Then all the morons who are buying enough bricks to build a .22lr shit house will stop buying them.

I still think back to the .380 shortage in the mid 2000's. the .380 pre 1990's was an after thought caliber, then the .380 pocket gun craze kicked in, and everyone needed .380 ammo. .380 was impossible to find, and if you could find it, it was $40 a box, which was insane sine 9mm was selling for $9. .380 was overpriced for a while then production caught up and the 9mm pocket guns came out. Now .380 is about the same price as most other centerfire pistol ammo

The .22lr craze was started with the first ammo panic. in 2008 no ammo was available except for .22. Everyone bought rimfires for practice, and .22lr ARs, and 10/22 with Ruger 25 round factor mags as backup SHTF rifles. the 2012 panic happen and everyone stocked up on all ammo, including .22lr. The problem is its easy to horde tons of .22lr ammo. Prices are still close to normal and unlike the .380 panic. .22lr has not risen exponentially in price to match the demand.

Just like the housing bubble and the gold bubble, prices need to go up to stupid high levels for the bubble to burst. When .22lr starts selling for over $16 for a box of 50, horders will stop buying out .22lr. I also think some gun manufactures will start taking advantage of other alternate calibers, like .22wmr. A few gun companies like Ruger and Kel Tec are moving towards .22mag again. A reintroduced 10/22 in .22mag with 20 round factory mags or an AR in .22mag wouldn't sell 10 years ago, because .22lr was cheap. However right now .22mag is easier to find and a bit cheaper then .22lr, and you get a more effective punch with .22mag, so when Ruger reintroduces the 10/22 in .22mag it will sell like hotcakes.

I don't think the .22lr bubble is going pop yet, but it will eventually. Probably got another year.

User avatar
91Eunozs
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 2029
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:16 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: All of them!
Location: Hill Country, Texas

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by 91Eunozs » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:20 pm

woodsghost wrote:I don't know if that particular rumor is true, but I have walked by several thousand rounds of .22 in several stores in my area lately. I did not buy any, but at least it was available, and late in the day too! So I expect things are getting better, even if it is still tough.

Your wanting to buy 6k right off the bat is exactly the reason I can see new machines being made and can believe some of that rumor.
ditto... Always in stock around here. Not always a lot, and not always the flavor I want but always there now.

I personally feel comfortable enough that I gave up one of my 1,600-rd cans of Mini Mags to my buddy when we were out at his place building a new backstop yesterday.
Molon Latte...come & take our coffee order
Doctorr Fabulous wrote:... It's fun to play pretend, but this is the internet, and it's time to be serious.
zengunfighter wrote:... you don't want to blow a tranny in the middle of a pursuit...
woodsghost wrote:... A defensive gun without training is basically a talisman. It might ward off evil, but I wouldn't count on it.

User avatar
crypto
ZS Donor
ZS Donor
Posts: 16637
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2006 7:37 pm
Location: City of Saint Louis

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by crypto » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:40 pm

0122358 wrote:So as I was purchasing my S&W 442 today, the gentleman who was completing my 4473 approval/ CPL check was telling me about the upcoming .22 burst...he said he had it from several longtime friends that there is a manufacturing uptick 12 fold and their about the blow the lid on supply. He said it would go back to under 20 bucks a brick of 500...he said there is new manufacturing machines spinning up in addition to the current ones. Something about the Italians getting on board.

It sounds to good to be true...but does anyone else have any whispers? If true I wont hesitate to drop 500 bucks on .22 and pick up 6000 rounds.
This absolutely doesn't pass the sniff test. All of the ammo plants that make .22LR have been working 3 shifts 24/7 for the past 5 years to keep up with supply. It absolutely would not have made any financial sense to leave 90% of their production capacity idle with .22LR selling at a premium. No one is going to start making .22lr instead of 5.56 as a 'peace dividend' because DoD doesnt need more 5.56 or any such nonsense, because its not like you can just change dies and move a 5.56 production line over to rimfire .22. They are entirely separate production processes.


There is no surplus manufacturing capacity.
MF'N TEAM LEADER

"Some people think that the best way to stop the leopard is to cut the horns off the gazelle. This, my friends, is insane."

Image
Image

eeb
* * * *
Posts: 877
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 7:25 pm

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by eeb » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:07 pm

I've read several reports of a press release from Eley stating that due to new investors, they'll be opening a new rimfire manufacturing facility somewhere in Europe. Won't know for sure what/how much effect it'll have until (if) it happens.


I seem to recall seeing a report on Accurate Shooter's bulletin page
"Illegal spying is not a crime. Well, it is, but fuck it."-NSA

User avatar
woodsghost
* * * * *
Posts: 3103
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 3:45 pm

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by woodsghost » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:30 pm

crypto wrote: No one is going to start making .22lr instead of 5.56 as a 'peace dividend' because DoD doesnt need more 5.56 or any such nonsense, because its not like you can just change dies and move a 5.56 production line over to rimfire .22. They are entirely separate production processes.
What? Why not? They are both .22 caliber.....


Just to be clear, .22 is not always on the shelf around hear. It is probably a 50/50 whether there is a little bit on the shelves. But I was surprised when I saw thousands in several locations last weekend. Checked walmart yesterday and they were out today. Again, probably 50/50 now.
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

User avatar
angelofwar
* * * * *
Posts: 1856
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 1:55 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: The Walking Dead, I Am Legend

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by angelofwar » Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:27 pm

0122358 wrote:So as I was purchasing my S&W 442 today...
Awesome Gun huh? Was thinking of getting a second actually...LOL! Fits so nice in the pocket...


Oh, .22!!! Well, it's been showing up pretty regularly here...in my pre-prepper days I kept no less than a hundred...now I have upped it to 1k, and may go up to 2k. I keep several hundred hollow points for hunting, and then it's just lead rounds after that for SHTF. My local store carries 50 rds for $2.30 a box, limit 5 per day, so I was easily able to get past my initials 1k round mark. But, yes, lead is cheap and abundant, and if companies can sell it, they will sell it at what ever price brings them a profit and brings it to them at a decent pace...
"The trick, William Potter, is not minding that it hurts..."
http://www.zombiehunters.org/forum/view ... w#p2141127

Image

Redeyes
ZS Donor
ZS Donor
Posts: 1460
Joined: Tue May 05, 2009 1:04 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Night of The Living Dead 1968
Location: Augusta Georgia

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Redeyes » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:58 am

It seems to be winding down here. .22lr is on the shelves at sporting goods stores at internet prices, 10 cents a round. Walmart is nearly always cleared out because they sell it at 5 cents a round. Not enough profit in it for gougers to show up at 7AM and wait for an hour or so to maybe get 2 boxes of bulk pack .22lr.
Image

Team Beards&Irons MilCopp 2013

Browning 35 for ZS President 2016. Make Zombie Squad Great Again!

User avatar
brothaman
* * * * *
Posts: 1041
Joined: Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:40 pm
Location: SC

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by brothaman » Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:02 am

TL/DR - The only way to burst the bubble is to not buy 22lr. Take this opportunity to stock deep on shells for your shotty. They've been fairly cheap for awhile now. Turkey loads just got red tagged my local Sprawlmart.

All you "All I need in the ZPAW is my Mossy 5-Oh Oh" fellas should be in various states of giggitty giggitty.
It stops being funny when it starts being you.

User avatar
0122358
* * * * *
Posts: 1804
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2011 2:07 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Dawn of the Dead (2004)
Zombieland
Location: Purdy...Washington

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by 0122358 » Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:58 am

angelofwar wrote:
0122358 wrote:So as I was purchasing my S&W 442 today...
Awesome Gun huh? Was thinking of getting a second actually...LOL! Fits so nice in the pocket...


Oh, .22!!! Well, it's been showing up pretty regularly here...in my pre-prepper days I kept no less than a hundred...now I have upped it to 1k, and may go up to 2k. I keep several hundred hollow points for hunting, and then it's just lead rounds after that for SHTF. My local store carries 50 rds for $2.30 a box, limit 5 per day, so I was easily able to get past my initials 1k round mark. But, yes, lead is cheap and abundant, and if companies can sell it, they will sell it at what ever price brings them a profit and brings it to them at a decent pace...
I haven't shot it yet, but have been eyeing it for over a year. I had the money, it was a steal of a deal for the pro model and it just feels right/ is a natural pointer.

No matter, when .22 becomes for available in my AO I'm stocking up even if I have to pay more then I want.
SMoAF wrote:Your sin is one of geography, not one of unmanliness. Pimp's sin is that he's, well....himself.
Doctorr Fabulous wrote: I'd rather have 10 spooky-sized aircraft in an AO than 100 drones, because fuck those fucking pred flyboys who can't tell the difference between a shovel and an RPK.

User avatar
tedbeau
* * *
Posts: 596
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 8:08 am

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by tedbeau » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:24 am

I am envious of you guys that can walk past thousands of rounds of 22LR on the shelf. It's still not common at all here. I did stop at a small gun store last week and he had one box of 100 and one box of 50 and a few ziplock bags of 50 that he must have made out of a brick or bucket. I bought the 100 round box for something like $14 dollars which is expensive but it was the first 22 I have seen in 6 months!

The other calibers especially pistol calibers are getting easier to find here though. I stopped at the Dunhams in the mall here last night and they had UMC bulk 250 round boxes of 9mm, 40, 45 and even 38 special. The Walmart across from the mall has not been out of 40, or 45 in about a month now, but still has not had 22LR in over a year, and I usually check two or three times a week.

I bought a box of (5) #4 buckshot for the Oct/Nov postal match entry and they had 7.62X39 Wolf Classic on sale for 5.99 a box so I got two boxes of it.

I should pick up some 38 special ammo though just to build up my stash, I don't shoot the snubbie as much as I should.

User avatar
Brotherbadger
ZS Donor
ZS Donor
Posts: 362
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2012 4:59 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Curse of the Cannibal Confederates(so terrible it's great)
Location: Wisconsin

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by Brotherbadger » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:02 am

tedbeau wrote:I am envious of you guys that can walk past thousands of rounds of 22LR on the shelf. It's still not common at all here. I did stop at a small gun store last week and he had one box of 100 and one box of 50 and a few ziplock bags of 50 that he must have made out of a brick or bucket. I bought the 100 round box for something like $14 dollars which is expensive but it was the first 22 I have seen in 6 months!

The other calibers especially pistol calibers are getting easier to find here though. I stopped at the Dunhams in the mall here last night and they had UMC bulk 250 round boxes of 9mm, 40, 45 and even 38 special. The Walmart across from the mall has not been out of 40, or 45 in about a month now, but still has not had 22LR in over a year, and I usually check two or three times a week.

I bought a box of (5) #4 buckshot for the Oct/Nov postal match entry and they had 7.62X39 Wolf Classic on sale for 5.99 a box so I got two boxes of it.

I should pick up some 38 special ammo though just to build up my stash, I don't shoot the snubbie as much as I should.
Keep an eye out for online sales. Just today i found a 1400 round bucket of Remington Bucket o Bullets for 5 CPR at Bass Pro Shop. You have to jump quick(i think it sold out in under 2 hours), but the sales are out there. The walmart by me is almost always out, but checking BrassBadger helps when it does eventually come in.
Doc Torr wrote:You forgot to add that birdshot only hurts badguys, so you can bounce it off the floor, walls, or even yourself for nonlethal takedowns. Load some beanbags and dragon's Breath too, because you shouldn't stop shooting until they're on fire.

User avatar
TheLastOne
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 3210
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 5:06 pm
Location: CO

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by TheLastOne » Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:30 pm

You know what? Fuck 22, because guess what IS cheap right now.. 9, 223, and x39.


223 steel is down around 22/3 c per
X39 is 21
I've found steel 9 at 20c per.

That's stacking prices imo based on what's happened in the last year and a half and with election dumbassery starting up already even though it's 2 yrs off. Brass is reasonable too. Maga are damn cheap. Let the dummies buy their 22.
MF'N Team Leader: Cleveland Steamers 2012
Team Beards&Irons 2013
Image

User avatar
woodsghost
* * * * *
Posts: 3103
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 3:45 pm

Re: .22lr bubble?

Post by woodsghost » Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:15 pm

TheLastOne wrote:You know what? Fuck 22, because guess what IS cheap right now.. 9, 223, and x39.


223 steel is down around 22/3 c per
X39 is 21
I've found steel 9 at 20c per.

That's stacking prices imo based on what's happened in the last year and a half and with election dumbassery starting up already even though it's 2 yrs off. Brass is reasonable too. Maga are damn cheap. Let the dummies buy their 22.
I agree completely.

Where is x39 21-per?

I want a -47 again!!!! :gonk: Some day.....
*Remember: I'm just a guy on the internet :)
*Don't go to stupid places with stupid people & do stupid things.
*Be courteous. Look normal. Be in bed by 10'clock.

“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” -Bilbo Baggins.

Post Reply

Return to “General Firearms Discussion”