When will prices return to normal?

General discussions regarding topics that aren't covered in one of the other sub-forums. NO DISCUSSION OF POLITICS!

Moderators: ZS Global Moderators, ZS Postal Match Officers

User avatar
Paladin1
* * * * *
Posts: 4451
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2008 12:56 pm
Location: Central Ohio

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Paladin1 » Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:13 pm

I have as much as I need, just not as much as I want. :D

I was in the middle of building a 300BO when this hit. Now, half my parts have not shown up and ammo has disappeared.

My epiphany with this panic, is that I have enough for me, but I have young kids. I'm starting to think I may need to buy for them.

I don't think prices are coming down anytime soon, as long as there is legislation 'pending'.

And I doubt prices will ever go back to pre-event levels.
WWSD?

User avatar
Sins
* * *
Posts: 572
Joined: Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:58 pm

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Sins » Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:50 pm

When will prices return to normal?

After all the guns and ammo bought for the December 21st apocalypse are properly sold for a reasonable profit and before they discover another long count calendar that ends

feedthedog
* * * *
Posts: 959
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:55 pm

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by feedthedog » Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:18 am

Sorry for the off topic....

I did a bit of digging to find a day-by-day or even week-by-week listing of firearm prices to no avail. Looks like I may have to try to construct one.

If this does actually turn out to be financially viable, and I have the cash to actually make it work, then I would certainly have to get a license. I'm not much of a firearm collector, so I just buy what I want and keep it. I've never actually sold a gun, and the FFL thing looks like a hassle but not impossible.

An easier route might just be magazines, like I said I never sell anything. I'll have to do some legal research.

This is the auction that got me thinking: http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewIt ... =326050792" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Current panic price: $650

Non-Panic list prices:
$66 for the chest rig?
$35 x 6 for magazines
=$276

230% increase? Seems like a lot, but there are more than 20 bids....

User avatar
lokifz1
* * *
Posts: 413
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:11 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Must have Alice in it.
Location: Oklahoma

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by lokifz1 » Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:26 am

I am 90% convinced this is the new normal. 10% is still hopeful for a little sanity to be restored after Congress takes no major action.
Beretta accept no substitute.

feedthedog
* * * *
Posts: 959
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:55 pm

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by feedthedog » Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:36 am

lokifz1 wrote:I am 90% convinced this is the new normal. 10% is still hopeful for a little sanity to be restored after Congress takes no major action.
Looks like demand has just outstripped supply. If we don't see any new regulation, then supply should eventually meet demand at a more reasonable equilibrium. Hell, manufacturers may even buy more manufacturing capacity to catch up and prices could even be lower than they used to be.

User avatar
lokifz1
* * *
Posts: 413
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:11 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Must have Alice in it.
Location: Oklahoma

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by lokifz1 » Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:37 am

Rather then expend capital to increase production I think mantacturers will also wait and see.

As it stands now most of their near future production is allready sold.
Beretta accept no substitute.

feedthedog
* * * *
Posts: 959
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:55 pm

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by feedthedog » Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:03 pm

lokifz1 wrote:Rather then expend capital to increase production I think mantacturers will also wait and see.

As it stands now most of their near future production is allready sold.
True that. You give them money, and 6 months later they give you some product. That's one hell of a business model.

User avatar
VeniVidiVici
* *
Posts: 205
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:45 pm
Location: Gulf Coast

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by VeniVidiVici » Sat Jan 19, 2013 3:28 pm

lokifz1 wrote:I am 90% convinced this is the new normal. 10% is still hopeful for a little sanity to be restored after Congress takes no major action.
I think ammo and mags will drop first. A lot of the shortages were caused by people buying semi automatic sporting firearms for the first time and then making a run for their accessories. None of the shooters I know have purchased anything at the panic prices and at the end of the day those are the guys who keep the factories rolling not the people who stash a can in their closet just in case. I personally began the switch to 7.62 just before the panic and while it has been nice offloading the last of my 5.56 stash at the inflated prices, I'm not going to pay the current market rate for 7.62 stuff. I have plenty for any realistic disaster situation anyway. :clap:

What was most alarming about this panic is the fact that so many of the common and widely available cartridges disappeared overnight and we didn't even have any real disaster that was causing any craziness. :ohdear: Resupply isn't even a consideration for me but, a lot of the people who plan on scavenging common calibers are going to be SOL if something serious happens. This has allowed me to consider cartridges I'd have never looked at before like 10mm, .338 Norma Magnum, and 6.5 Creedmoor.

Assuming no ban gets pushed through of course! :rofl:
"I would rather walk with God in the dark than go alone in the light." ~Mary Gardiner Brainard

Cummins/Knight's Armament Company/Colt/Barrett/

User avatar
kcor_77
* * * * *
Posts: 1380
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 11:43 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: all of them
Location: My house where are you?

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by kcor_77 » Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:05 pm

400 for lowers today at the gun show. Parts kits were 150 and 556 ammo was a dollar a round. It is going to be a while before it does. Which sucks as i just need a barrel.
Tomorrow's an illusion
Yesterday's a dream
Today is a solution

medic photog
* * *
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2012 10:47 pm
Location: PA
Contact:

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by medic photog » Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:48 pm

I walked in the local gun store the other day and they had customers taking a number like at the deli. The shelves were bare, no 12 gague, 9mm 45ACP, 306 or 223 ammo to speak of. Spare mags? nope none of those either. I'm glad I got what I got before the craziness started. I'll just save up for another ammo purchase in several months.

munchie3409
* *
Posts: 202
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 8:31 am
Location: SEPA

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by munchie3409 » Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:19 pm

Since I don't have a crystal ball and my magic 8 ball is broken...I'm going to say by the end of this year. I am already starting to see a huge slow down in buying and I feel it's because credit card bills are coming from Christmas shopping. Now, you may see another run in a month or two because of tax season, but people will be selling to pay for their taxes as well.

User avatar
lokifz1
* * *
Posts: 413
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 11:11 am
Favorite Zombie Movies: Must have Alice in it.
Location: Oklahoma

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by lokifz1 » Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:42 pm

Today I went to two gunstores and wally world. Both gunstores were packed. Only one non .22 semi seen one guy was looking at it two guys waiting in line in case he did not buy it nice looking g3 or clone. Nearly no semi auto shotguns.

Walls were literally bare. No .22 except shorts and wmr. Only 9mm tull 14.99 for 50. Federal white box target only. 40. Smattering of .45. .380 was plentiful.

223/556 forgetaboutit. 7.62x39 only ammo not limited to two boxes per customer.

If it said magpul it was long gone.

I think buying has slowed since there is little left to buy. Lots of shell shocked looking dudes wandering around the stores.
Beretta accept no substitute.

zombieresponder
*
Posts: 65
Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:27 pm

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by zombieresponder » Sat Jan 19, 2013 8:51 pm

When no legislation passes and the credit card bills start rolling in.

User avatar
The Commander
* *
Posts: 262
Joined: Fri Feb 15, 2008 3:11 am
Location: Houston- can't escape the sprawl

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by The Commander » Sat Jan 19, 2013 9:23 pm

rjm wrote:Again, when it comes to panics, this isn't the last one. If you wait till the next time (which may come faster than anyone can see) you'll be in the same situation as you are now.
Truer words were never spoken. This makes the 2008-09 panic look like nothing. $150 for a stripped AR-15 lower in 2009 was outragous to me. This time around, there are a lot of other factors involved. What really strikes me is non-enthusiasts are coming out of the woodworks and buying up everything. If I ran a firearms/ammo company, I would have the factories turning out product 24/7 nonstop. Hire new peeps to work all shifts and give the economy a great big boost. :)

The talk amongst gun show dealers was the most bizzarre I have ever heard of, and I've been going since the old millennium.
Image

feedthedog
* * * *
Posts: 959
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:55 pm

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by feedthedog » Sat Jan 19, 2013 9:46 pm

If nothing actually happens, then this is going to be a wonderful opportunity.

User avatar
rjm
* *
Posts: 169
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2010 6:25 pm
Location: New Ulm, TX

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by rjm » Sat Jan 19, 2013 11:17 pm

I've actually been giving thought into buying some non-commonality caliber rifles because of all this hoo-ha. On a whim, I hit the local Bass Pro (I actually never buy guns or ammo from them or any of the other big retail chains just because of the overhead involved) just to see what kinds of reloading shells and manufactured ammo they had in stock. Not supprising, there was no 5.56, x39, .308, 6.8, 9mm, .45, or .40.

I did notice however that they had plenty 270, .17, 45-70, 30-30, 338 and other similar bolt/lever rifle hunting ammo and brass. Now I know I am not going to grab a bolt rifle if someone starts trying to kick my front door down, but I got to thinking about the logic of having only guns in common US calibers. If everyone has a 5.56/.223 and crap like this happens, it's only logical to assume all the ammo for those rifles is going to be gone since everyone is going to need the same caliber for the same gun. However, I'd have no problem even today ordering mass quantities of the less popular calibers because the number of people who own them is limited primarily to hunters and sportsmen, and they typically don't run through hundreds of rounds when they go out to shoot. Also, the guns that fire these rounds are typically overlooked when discussions of bans comes up, so generally speaking, they remain largely unaffected by panic reactions.

I actually have been toying with the idea of getting a large bore lever rifle in something like 45-70 for a long time, but the advent of the latest silly-season brought the idea back. Walking around seeing what was in stock sorta set a lightbulb off(maybe a dim bulb) and got me thinking that only having common calibers that everyone else has may not be such a good idea (not saying it's necessarily a bad idea). Again, I feel that any prepaired shooter should have their guns/ammo/mags/parts/etc bought in between scares, but sometimes you really just want to go shoot and these periods of madness really interrupt the hobby.

Anyway, it's late and I hope this hasn't been a complete incoherent ramble, but I just had the idea pop into my head and thought I'd voice it.
"Well, it's rather brutal here. Right now we are advising all our clients to put everything they've got into canned food and shotguns."

User avatar
Ten Eight
* * * * *
Posts: 1214
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:54 pm
Location: Florida

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Ten Eight » Sat Jan 19, 2013 11:37 pm

You make a valid point. This is why I held on to a magazine fed, pump action .270 and a detachable mag fed 30-30 bolt action that I just inherited from my grandpa. I need to find and buy more magazines for those, and figure out/ fab up some 10-12 rounders. I think both caliber's mags only hold 5-6, but at least I'm not stuck shoving individual rounds through the top. I'll be posting a question on making mags for these guns for sure.
"You don't understand! I coulda' had class. I coulda' been a contender. I coulda' been somebody instead of a bum, which is what I am."

jethroUSMC
*
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2011 5:25 pm

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by jethroUSMC » Sun Jan 20, 2013 10:12 am

Prices will be a little higher than they were before the insanity- once things level out a bit. Not gunbroker rape you stupid prices, but what we've grown accustomed to for the last several years plus adjustment for inflation/devaluation of currency.

Overall stock of items will begin to appear measured in weeks not years, I'm guessing somewhere in the 6-8 week period. However, based on discussion from manufacturers at SHOT the overall manufacturers selection of models will be trimmed back. The trend toward the tactical will be more subdued - the big boys see the future and are adjusting accordingly to weather whatever comes.

Now that doesn't mean they're giving up, it means they're hedging their bets to stay in business throughout the goat rodeo that we're currently in and the future outlook both politically and financially.

Doctorr Fabulous
ZS Lifetime Member
ZS Lifetime Member
Posts: 12210
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:06 pm
Favorite Zombie Movies: Evil Dead, Zombieland, 28 Days/Weeks Later

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Doctorr Fabulous » Sun Jan 20, 2013 1:51 pm

rjm wrote:I've actually been giving thought into buying some non-commonality caliber rifles because of all this hoo-ha. On a whim, I hit the local Bass Pro (I actually never buy guns or ammo from them or any of the other big retail chains just because of the overhead involved) just to see what kinds of reloading shells and manufactured ammo they had in stock. Not supprising, there was no 5.56, x39, .308, 6.8, 9mm, .45, or .40.

I did notice however that they had plenty 270, .17, 45-70, 30-30, 338 and other similar bolt/lever rifle hunting ammo and brass. Now I know I am not going to grab a bolt rifle if someone starts trying to kick my front door down, but I got to thinking about the logic of having only guns in common US calibers. If everyone has a 5.56/.223 and crap like this happens, it's only logical to assume all the ammo for those rifles is going to be gone since everyone is going to need the same caliber for the same gun. However, I'd have no problem even today ordering mass quantities of the less popular calibers because the number of people who own them is limited primarily to hunters and sportsmen, and they typically don't run through hundreds of rounds when they go out to shoot. Also, the guns that fire these rounds are typically overlooked when discussions of bans comes up, so generally speaking, they remain largely unaffected by panic reactions.

I actually have been toying with the idea of getting a large bore lever rifle in something like 45-70 for a long time, but the advent of the latest silly-season brought the idea back. Walking around seeing what was in stock sorta set a lightbulb off(maybe a dim bulb) and got me thinking that only having common calibers that everyone else has may not be such a good idea (not saying it's necessarily a bad idea). Again, I feel that any prepaired shooter should have their guns/ammo/mags/parts/etc bought in between scares, but sometimes you really just want to go shoot and these periods of madness really interrupt the hobby.

Anyway, it's late and I hope this hasn't been a complete incoherent ramble, but I just had the idea pop into my head and thought I'd voice it.
Lever 30-30 or scattergun would be my go-to in times of trouble if I couldn't have or get ammo for my current crop of favorites.
Opinions subject to change in light of new information.
Image
http://i.imgur.com/wG6ZMjE.jpg

good2btheking70
*
Posts: 38
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 8:07 pm

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by good2btheking70 » Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:22 pm

well I was just at my local walmart...they now have the sign taped up on the glass display..."ONLY TWO BOXES OF AMMO PER PERSON PER DAY...NO EXCEPTIONS".

And of course, the display case was completely empty so go figure the irony in that one. I think I am as about frustrated here as anyone else. I cant even get any .45acp ammo for my job and need to do my requals next month. I did manage to hit up a Big 5 Sporting Goods for a box of 12 gauge and a box of .38's....I don't even own one. Maybe a bartering box of ammo for later date I guess. Hope everyone else is fairing as well. I won't even go to gunbroker to buy, talk about raping you in the kisser on prices.

Ansgar
* *
Posts: 125
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:00 am
Location: Greater Saint Louis

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Ansgar » Thu Jan 24, 2013 11:54 pm

good2btheking70 wrote:well I was just at my local walmart...they now have the sign taped up on the glass display..."ONLY TWO BOXES OF AMMO PER PERSON PER DAY...NO EXCEPTIONS".

And of course, the display case was completely empty so go figure the irony in that one. I think I am as about frustrated here as anyone else. I cant even get any .45acp ammo for my job and need to do my requals next month. I did manage to hit up a Big 5 Sporting Goods for a box of 12 gauge and a box of .38's....I don't even own one. Maybe a bartering box of ammo for later date I guess. Hope everyone else is fairing as well. I won't even go to gunbroker to buy, talk about raping you in the kisser on prices.
I saw the same thing today at mine while the wife was doing the grocery thing (ours is one of those fancy Super Walmarts), went ahead and bought their last box of .38SPL. This whole thing started just as I was finishing saving up the money to get more magazines for my 10/22 (10 round box mags, have 2 of the 25 round Butler Creek hot lips, not a huge fan of how far down they hang) and a softcase for my old Smith, neither of which I can find anywhere. Apparently, cases for 12" OAL revolvers with 6" barrels weren't exactly common around here to begin with.

Tommy Tran
* * * *
Posts: 996
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 2:42 pm
Location: Somewhere

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by Tommy Tran » Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:22 pm

I'll add my voice to the secondary market opening back up long before the retail side catches up... if the sellers can come off their high horse that is... but wives and impending personal financial doom make lowers and fistfuls of mags look good enuf to sell!

In 08 in these parts it took about 8months for supply to show some normalcy but in this case Im thinking more like a year assuming nothing crazy happens
phil_in_cs wrote:well, I can guarantee you it won't over penetrate. It has to penetrate before it can over penetrate....
gravediggerfour wrote:For those of you with Mr. Fancy Pants gas piston AR's better stock up on the parts that are not interchangable.
TravisM.1 wrote:If a rifle is an option, a rifle is usually the answer.

User avatar
minengr
* * * * *
Posts: 1330
Joined: Thu Jun 10, 2004 9:10 am
Location: Southern Illinois
Contact:

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by minengr » Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:08 pm

My gut says it may be awhile. Since everyone is basically out of everything, it's hard to make an accurate guess.

I hear rumors that places like Hornady are running at 200% normal production, and still can't meet demand. Nearly every internet company selling reloading components has a 3-4 week backlog, is running 7/days/wk, has hired extra people, and has nothing is stock.
Bullet drop is physics, reading wind is voodoo

User avatar
phil_in_cs
ZS Member
ZS Member
Posts: 11424
Joined: Fri Dec 28, 2007 4:18 pm
Location: central tx

Re: When will prices return to normal?

Post by phil_in_cs » Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:22 pm

minengr wrote:My gut says it may be awhile. Since everyone is basically out of everything, it's hard to make an accurate guess.

I hear rumors that places like Hornady are running at 200% normal production, and still can't meet demand. Nearly every internet company selling reloading components has a 3-4 week backlog, is running 7/days/wk, has hired extra people, and has nothing is stock.
I can see someone running an extra shift; that's OT money so things will cost more. They can do that and cut the extra shift when things get back to normal, and don't have to invest in more machinery.
Don't confuse a belligerent and aggressive attitude with the strength, training, and conditioning needed to prevail in a fight. How do you know you have the Will To Win, if you don't even have the will to train?

Post Reply

Return to “General Firearms Discussion”